You asked for it! Bonzo the Idiot Monkey's mock draft

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Apr 19, 2010



We're not into the mock-draft thing, as you know. The reasons are pretty clear: we're all about reality. We're all about the Cold, Hard Football Facts.
 
Mock drafts, meanwhile, exist in the realm of fantasy. We can make reasonable assumptions about who might win a particular football game, for example, based on the statistical evidence at hand. But there's no way to know what's going to happen in the draft, and then who might actually succeed in the future. The pathetic track record of the so-called draft "experts" is all the proof you need.
 
The difference between us and them is that we don't pretend to do the impossible.
 
However, we do have an in-house expert from the realm of the imaginary: our beloved Bonzo the Idiot Monkey, the pigskin prognosticating primate and media darling. Bonzo earned his mutton chops when he bested the top experts from CBS Sports picking every single game against the spread in not one but in two consecutive NFL seasons.
 
Bonzo's first mock draft, meanwhile, captured the attention of the Wall Street Journal and pigskin "pundits" from coast to coast. Oh, sure, Bonzo sucks at mock drafts. But that's kind of the point. So, too, does every other so-called mock-draft expert. At least Bonzo has an excuse: he picks his names out of hat. The "experts" actually study these things.
 
The defense fell from No. 5 in Defensive Passer Rating in 2008 to No. 11 in 2009. The number of picks went way up in 2009, but so, too, did the number of TDs they surrendered. So, Mays, rated behind only Eric Berry among free safeties on most draft boards, might be a perfect acquisition by the Eagles. Smart thinking, Bonzo, especially for a hominid with such a small cranial cavity.
 
1. St. Louis – Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
We gave Bonzo a mulligan, as we do each year when there's a consensus No. 1. The Rams need help everywhere, and desperate teams usually desperately choose a quarterback.
 
2. Detroit – Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma
Well, the Lions do need help everywhere, including on the offensive line, where they had the 31st-ranked unit in the NFL last year. Some blindside help for Matt Stafford can't hurt. Not a bad pick. Two bananas for you, Bonzo!
 
3. Tampa Bay – Joe Haden, CB, Florida
The Bucs sucked everywhere last year – except in the secondary, where they ranked a respectable-by-their standards 21st, their best showing in any of our Quality Stats. Probably not the best pick. No bananas for you, Bonzo!
 
4. Washington – Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas
The Redskins possessed a respectable defense last year, including a group of Defensive Hogs that were in the top half of the league (No. 14). Hey, stranger things have happened than Dan Snyder's team getting a first-round pick correct. Like an imaginary monkey doing a mock draft, for example.
 
5. Kansas City – Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida
Pierre-Paul might be the best pass-rushing prospect in the draft this year. The Chiefs certainly need help in this area: the downfall of their Defensive Hogs since losing Jared Allen has been well chronicled by CHFF over the past two years. KC was No. 29 in our Defensive Hog Index last year and No. 28 at forcing Negative Pass Plays. Bonzo may have hit one here! Three bananas for you!
 
6. Seattle – Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma
McCoy is a big speedy run stopper and penetrating sack specials (6.5 last year, a very high number for the position). The Seahawks were actually respectable against the run last year (4.15 YPA, 13th) but could definitely need help forcing Negative Pass Plays (No. 29 last year). However, Seattle needs help everywhere – and it needs help everywhere else but the DL first. Bonzo's pulling a Mel Kiper here and misses badly. No bananas for you!
 
7. Cleveland – Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee
The Browns are in desperate need of help in the passing game, which ranked dead last in the NFL last year (4.39 YPA). A pick in any other area is a mistake. Of course, given Cleveland's recent draft track record, following Bonzo's advice is probably not a bad idea.
 
8. Oakland – Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers
Apparently, Bonzo thinks it's time to declare an end to the glorious Robert Gallery Era in Oakland. The problem with the Raiders in recent years? You have to go all the way back to Charles Woodson in 1998 to find a No. 1 pick in Oakland that actually panned out well for such a high pick – well, unless you count overreaching for a kicker with the No. 17 overall pick in 2000.
 
9. Buffalo – Mike Iupati, G, Idaho
Bonzo's on fire! Offensive line is absolutely Buffalo's No. 1 need in the 2010 draft. The Bills finished No. 29 in our Offensive Hog Index last year, including dead last in two components of the indicator: Negative Pass Plays and third-down success. However, guards are extraordinarily rare first-round picks, and virtually unheard of in the top 10. But a 330-pound guard with athletic skills could remake an OL than desperately needs it. One banana for Bonzo!
 
10. Jacksonville – Eric Berry, S, Tennessee
If it were up to us, Berry would go to the Lions with the No. 2 pick – the worst secondary in history certainly needs the best DB in the draft. However, should Berry fall to No. 10, the way Bonzo envisions, Jacksonville would be a good place to land. The Jaguars ranked 30th in Defensive Passer Rating last year and allowed opponents to complete nearly 68 percent of their passes. This poor performance in pass defense was the biggest reason why the Jaguars struggled through a 7-9 season. Two bananas for Bonzo!
 
11. Denver – Everson Griffin, DE, USC
Bonzo's not reading his banana leaves very well. The Broncos need to put some offensive weapons around Kyle Orton after a season in which they scored 20.4 PPG (20th) and just traded away their top playmaking talent, Brandon Marshall, to Miami. Denver's D-Hogs, meanwhile, were the team's top-ranked unit according to our Quality Stats (No. 12 in Defensive Hog Index). Quite a stretch here, even for the amazingly limber, tree-swinging Bonzo.
 
12. Miami – Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State
Won't happen, our furry simian friend. As noted just above, the Dolphins just acquired WR Brandon Marshall from Denver, in exchange for two second-round draft picks. They won't grab another wideout here. Instead, they'll pursue a playmaking defender, most likely in the secondary. You owe us a banana, Bonzo.
 
13. San Francisco – Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland
The 49ers were solid in many ways, except in the passing game (No. 25 in Passing YPA). San Francisco recently acquired Ted Ginn Jr. from Miami to help that effort. Keeping Alex Smith on the bench last year would have helped, too, as would a big stud in the offensive line, which ranked a humble 21st in our Offensive Hog Index. However, the 49ers grabbed a blindside tackle in the first round of the 2007 draft (Joe Staley) and just signed him to a big extension last year. Plus, No. 13 seems awfully high for a player like Campbell, whose stock seems to have tumbled in recent weeks. Bonzo seems to be failing miserably over the last few picks.
 
14. Seattle – Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State
The Seahawks are desperate for help on the offensive line. There's a good chance they'll take an offensive tackle. Okung is the No. 1 OT prospect according to many analysts – so there's a chance he'll be gone by the time Seattle's pick rolls around. If not, this is a great choice, Bonzo!
 
15. N.Y. Giants – C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson
Anything but a shutdown pass defender will be a mistake by the Giants, who ranked No. 29 last year in Defensive Passer Rating, allowing 31 TD passes while nabbing just 13 INTs. However, the Giants have slipped badly running the football – just 19th in the NFL last year with an average of 4.15 YPA on the ground – and Brandon Jacobs is simply not that productive anymore (5 TD, 3.7 YPA in 2009). So Spiller's not out of the question – just not the team's No. 1 need. But maybe Bonzo is smarter than the average monkey or NFL draft "expert" here. Hey, aim low. That's Bonzo's motto.
 
16. Tennessee – Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa
The Titans fielded one of the best offensive lines in football last year, second only to the Super Bowl champ Saints on our Offensive Hog Index. Instead, Tennessee needs a defensive playmaker. So Bonzo's climbing up the wrong tree here.
 
17. San Francisco – Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame
Hey, you know our motto – ABA! Anybody But Alex! Yes, it's true, Bonzo loves old school basketball, too. With two first-round picks and a team in need of a huge uptick in its passing game – yeah, we could see the 49ers grabbing Clausen. But Bonzo's gotta realize that Clausen will probably be long gone by this point.
 
18. Pittsburgh – Terrence Cody, DT, Alabama
A 350-pound fireplug in the middle of Pittsburgh's 3-4? We likey, likey Bonzo. Cody anchored the dominant defense of the national champion Tide last year. The Steelers need help on the OL (No. 22 on our OHI) before they need help on the DL. However, the Steelers did plummet from No. 1 on our DHI in 2008 to No. 12 in 2009. And Cody is a textbook 3-4 nose tackle. Could be a great pick for Bonzo!
 
19. Atlanta – Ryan Matthews, RB, Fresno State
Atlanta's ground game was merely mediocre last year (4.16 YPA; 18th). However, the Falcons have much greater needs elsewhere. Free-agent CB Dunta Robinson shores up a porous secondary (No. 22 in DPR last year). So look for a pass-rushing stud here for a unit that was among the worst in football at forcing Negative Pass Plays and was dead last in third-down performance. Bonzo's gotta stop smoking the funny banana.
 
20. Houston – Jerry Hughes, LB, TCU
Houston, as noted by Bonzo's masters here at CHFF, still has a porous defense despite years of high draft picks among the Defensive Hogs. The Texans do have a Super Bowl-caliber offense. So Hughes, the nation's top sack-man (15) last year and leader of one of the nation's best defenses, could prove the right pick for both Bonzo and the Texans and a strong partner with DeMeco Ryans, the team's best defender. 
 
21. Cincinnati – Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech
The defensive line was actually one of Cincy's strongest units in 2009 – No. 11 on our Defensive Hog Index. Bonzo must have been playing with an organ grinder when he made this selection. What the Bengals really need is a quarterback. Yes, it's true. We think it's time to move on past the Carson Palmer Era, even if Bonzo does not.  
 
22. New England – Maurkice Pouncey, C, Florida
Bonzo's not playing the Tim Tebow-to-New England game here, though so many other draft "experts" are fascinated by the scenario. We like the way Bonzo thinks outside the box (you know, the one with airholes cut into it). However, in this case he misses badly. The Patriots are all set at the position, and centers in the first round are extraordinarily rare in the best situations. As every fan in New England knows, the Patriots need a playmaker on defense. However, given the recent lack of success in the draft, New England might be better letting Bonzo handle the job this year and in the future.
 
23. Green Bay – Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Missouri
The Packers fielded the NFL's top Defensive Hogs in 2009. So we think Bonzo is goofier than a chimp in the midst of monkey love. However, Weatherspoon, a tackling machine, would be a tempting selection this late in the first round. And Green Bay, for all it's statistical success on defense, failed to come through against good offenses. So maybe Bonzo's on to something here.
 
24. Philadelphia – Taylor Mays, S, USC
The Eagles lost longtime safety Brian Dawkins to Denver before the 2009 season. Mays could be the replacement they need for a unit that fell by six spots in Defensive Passer Rating after the Dawkins departure.
 
25. Baltimore – Pat Robinson, CB, Florida State
What do you get the defense that has everything? Bonzo, apparently, thinks you get them a cornerback. Won't happen, monkey man. The Ravens ranked No. 6 in Defensive Passer Rating and were one of the few teams in football that boasted more picks (22) than pass TDs allowed (17). Instead, it's the same old story in Baltimore: they need to find a way to shore up a passing attack that, once again, was the team's statistical weak link (No. 13 in Passing YPA).
 
26. Arizona – Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State
The Cardinals were torched for 90 points and seven touchdown passes in two playoff games last year. They're desperate for help in the secondary – even if the team did end the year No. 10 in Defensive Passer Rating. But that top-10 ranking had more to do with a schedule filled by weak passing opponents in the NFC West than it did with any real capabilities on pass defense – as we learned in those playoff games. Wilson might prove a very good value this late in the first round and the Cardinals would be wise to take him. Nice work, Bonzo, you otherwise ignorant simpleton.
 
27. Dallas – Jahvid Best, RB, California
Ahh, Bonzo giveth and Bonzo taketh away. As sagacious as our feces-slinging simian appeared with Arizona's selection, he's way off the mark here. The Cowboys are in very good shape at running back, and may finally turn the offense over to the explosive homerun hitter Felix Jones this year. Instead, the Cowboys need help in the secondary (No. 16 in Defensive Passer Rating).
 
28. San Diego – Arrelious Benn, WR, Illinois
The Chargers fielded the most effective passing attack in football last year, with an average of 7.96 YPA each time they dropped back to pass. If Bonzo had an 1100 CC brain in his cranial cavity, he might have realized that the Chargers desperately need to shore up some of the worst Defensive Hogs in football. Remember, Bonzo, this unit was gashed for 128 yards by Jets RB Shonn Greene, including a 53-yard romp that provided the winning score, in San Diego's playoff loss. 
 
29. N.Y. Jets – Earl Thomas, S, Texas
Wow, Bonzo is really whimpering to an end here. The Jets, by every single measure, fielded the top defense and the top secondary in the NFL last year. A lot of teams could use Thomas – like New York's bitter AFC East rivals in New England. But certainly not the Jets. Instead, Rex Ryan needs to put some offensive weapons around Mark Sanchez. B-O-N-Z-O. Sucks! Sucks! Sucks!
 
30. Minnesota – Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama
The Vikings will never win a Super Bowl as long as they're handcuffed by BrettFavre, the greatest big-game liability in NFL history. So the Vikings enter the draft with no direction, a victim of their own imprisonment at the hands of BrettFavre. With that said, McClain is considered by many the best ILB in the draft. If he fell to No. 30, which he would do only in Bonzo's fertile mind, then the Vikings woulud be foolish not to take him. All things being equal, though, their No. 1 goal in the draft must be to fix one of the worst pass defenses in football last year (No. 27 in DPR).
 
31. Indianapolis – Jared Odrick, DT, Penn State
Bonzo is back! The Colts have only one glaring statistical weakness: their Defensive Hogs were among the very worst in football last year – No. 30 overall and No. 31 in third-down defense. Odrick might be the top-rated DT left at this point in the draft and would be a superb selection.
 
32. New Orleans – Brian Price, DT, UCLA
Bonzo closes out in style. The Super Bowl champs were statistically dominant across the board last year, easily the No. 1 in average Quality Stats ranking. However, the team was not flawless: the Saints had a lot of trouble stuffing the run. Opponents gashed them for 4.52 YPA in 2009, bad enough for 27th in the NFL. Price might be the best run stuffer on the board at this point and, a junior who just turned 21, he has plenty of upside potential.

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