We break down Week 1 spreads (well, sort of)

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Sep 09, 2011

By Mark Wald
Cold, Hard Football Facts Bell Ringing Hunchback

The following commentary is based on hunches, theorems, gut feeling, and other personal bias.

If you want to know who will win, become a Cold, Hard Football Facts Insider, where our real and spectacular picks are already off to a winning start after our deady accurate analysis of the Saints-Packers game Thursday night.

If you want to be intellectually poorer for the experience while developing a slow, burning hatred for the narrator, then read on.

Indianapolis at Houston
Line: Texans (-9)

Thirteen years and 227 games later we finally know what Peyton Manning’s worth: almost a touchdown, that’s what he’s worth! As the first game of a new season, they’ve had the line posted on this one since they were shooting off fireworks, and it was Texans by a couple of points. That’s major line movement, folks. Too much line movement, we wonder?

Over the course of a season this Texans team is probably superior to the Manning-less Colts. But funny things happen when pro teams get disrespected all week, especially when they’re quarterbacked by an experienced, competent (if not spectacular) quarterback and when the opposition is only slightly better than average.

Still, Houston beat Indianapolis with Manning last year. And so it comes to pass that Texans (-9) is what the famous Vegas line maker Bob Martin would refer to as the perfect line: when backers of both teams think they’re getting a steal. Beautiful.

Detroit at Tampa Bay
Line: Buccaneers (-1.5)

Detroit looks pretty good. We’ve read that. They’ll ascend to the next level when their top tier quarterback stays on the field. We’ve read that, too. Their top tier quarterback has started only 13 games in his career, and finished 11. That one we didn’t have to read. Is Stafford good? Is he bad? Who the hell knows. That last one wasn’t a question; it was a statement, thus the p

eriod.

Philadelphia at St. Louis
Line: Eagles (-4½)

It’s not that the Eagles aren’t a dream team. Well really, they’re not. They’re just another Andy Reid coached team that will probably win 11 or 12 games and be factor come playoff time. They never get out of the blocks quickly, though, and all that new blood will take a little time to gel and this dream team nonsense has them a little overrated this week. The only concern here is that the over/under on the Hardy Boys' average per pass attempt this year is about 5.5. Read about it in The Case of the Missing Downfield Pass by Franklin W. Dixon at the St. Louis Public Library.

Cincinnati at Cleveland
Line: Browns (-6.5)

The Cleveland Browns favored by more than six points? That hasn’t happened since Sam Rutigliano manned the pumps. Ok, it happened last November. But who’s checking? Maybe it’s because the Bengals don’t have a quarterback because their owner spent the offseason in a morale destroying piss match with Carson Palmer. In other words, nothing’s changed if you’re a Bengals fan. But Larry Flynt still sells Hustler in Cincinnati, and that’s a good thing. Little victories, Cincinnatians, little victories.

Tennessee at Jacksonville
Line: Jaguars (-1.5)

The Titans spent the preseason road-grading the opposition into the dirt trying to prove they were just fine without Chris Johnson. And they were. Then they went out and signed his twittering ass to a whole bunch of dough.

Are the Titans aware they haven’t won a single playoff game since Johnson’s been on board? That’s what we'd like to know. We’d also like to know if Mike Munchak really wears those expensive looking dress shoes with his polyester coaching pants like we saw in that photo. Not a bad combination, actually.

It’s like wearing a sport coat with jeans at work. No one notices the jeans. Anyone who doesn’t understand the genius of this move doesn’t work in a soul sapping corporate environment. Munchak’s not so stupid.

New York Giants at Washington
Line: Giants (-3)

The Giants are a cut above the Redskins in our estimation. But three points on the road against a division rival and a coach who’s been scripting plays for this game since Socrates sipped the hemlock seems a bit too easy. I'll take the Redskins. Wait a second, I’m not the one doing the picking. Probably for the best, because the Redskins are kind of, eh…unreliable?

Chicago at Atlanta
Line: Falcons (-3)

We have a feeling Atlanta’s deconstruction at the hands of Sherman (beg your pardon, McCarthy’s the man up North nowadays) in last year’s playoffs is going to be a psychological wound the Falcons carry with them all year. Experiences like that just don’t go away without years of therapy. The Atlanta we see this year will not be the Atlanta we saw pre-Civil War. We’ll find out what kind of coach Mike Smith is this year.

Carolina at Arizona
Line: Cardinals (-7)

What did the Cardinals do to be favored this much? Is it because they got a new highly touted but yet unproven quarterback and the Panthers have absolutely nobody? They also give up points by the turnip load, but the Panthers never met a turnip they’re very fond of, so guess we’ll bite.

Seattle at San Francisco
Line: 49ers (-6)

This is the type of game that a turtleneck-sporting, toupee-wearing, very English looking chap by the name of John Patrick would call a TRAP before ending the sentence with the clever use of a homophone that really isn’t very funny. Yes, we know Matt Hasselbeck moved on. And we know about their problems on the offensive line. And we know the Seahawks are probably closer to the team we saw last regular season than the team we saw in last year’s playoffs. But what does somebody know about the 49ers that we don’t? Beats the hell out of us. Some people say TRAPS are a bunch of nonsense. We say it’s the notes that aren’t played that make great guitarists.

Buffalo at Kansas City
Line: Chiefs (-6.5)

The Chiefs haven’t shown much this preseason and it’s hard to get a read on them, at least from our dull perceptions. We do know they’re playing Buffalo and aside from the fact their quarterback grew a beard to cover up his Harvardness, there’s really not much going on with them. But 6½ points is a lot to ask of a team that averaged less than 11 points a game in the preseason, and the bearded one has put together a few drives.

Minnesota at San Diego
Line: Chargers (-8.5)

If it wasn’t for San Diego’s insistence on starting every season 0-4 (we don’t care if you researched this, they’ve started every season 0-4), this would be a slam dunk. The Vikings went out and got a quarterback who represents an upgrade but whose best days are still behind him. This will either be a rout or it will be surprisingly close. That’s top notch point spread analysis. Be glad you didn’t pay for it.

Dallas at New York Jets
Line: Jets (-4.5)

And so begins the annual “we will win the Super Bowl” campaign for Rex and his boys. To be fair, two years ago he only saw a Super Bowl somewhere in his crystal ball. This year he predicted it would actually happen. These are the distinctions that make talk show hosts. Despite the bombastic delivery Rex has proven himself enough not to be questioned. It’s just that in this game he’s up against a team that wants to play really hard for their new coach, Opie Howard. Overlook the motivational factor at your peril.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore
Line: Ravens (-2.5)

Division rivals, two teams that play each other tough, no love lost, blah, blah, blah. Why not just say it: we have no clue who will win this game and even though it’s representative of the defensive struggle we haughtily espouse, it bores the hell out of us. We're not going to risk building up our poor reputation trying to make up something clever.

New England at Miami
Line: Patriots (-7)

This would typically be a great spot to leap on Miami as a live underdog. The Dolphins have one of the most under-the-radar home field advantages in the NFL, or at least they did. But New England slew that beast last year. Since then the Dolphins spent the last six months destroying whatever shred was left of their reputation by publicly undermining their head coach, shopping for quarterbacks and coming home empty handed, and cutting the pay of their employees. There’s trouble down there and it isn’t at the Fontainebleau. My name’s Tom Brady. Say hello to my little friend. Now look at you.

Oakland at Denver
Line: Broncos (-3)

The Raiders made a serious mistake dumping Tom Cable. We like a guy who wants to do it his way, but Al Davis would rather get credit for losing than see someone else get credit for winning. It’s sad. The Broncos, on the other hand, did what they should have done instead of hiring Josh McDaniels. They hired a guy who was once canned by Davis to replace a guy who was once canned by Davis. You can’t buy that kind of motivation. Unless the Broncos are planning on paying John Fox a salary, then wwe guess you can buy that kind of motivation. It guaranteed Denver two victories a year. Hue Jackson’s spent the last couple weeks burying his head up Davis’s backside, something Cable never did. Al Davis asked for it. Well, he gets it.

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