Tracking the NFL's most effective teams

By Ken Crippen
Pro Football Researchers Association

After we introduced the groundbreaking new Rusher Rating System last week, reader Tom Lianos (among many others) wrote to Cold, Hard Football Facts world headquarters:
 
“I really enjoyed the RB Rating system article," said Tom. "I am hopeful that you can apply this stat at the team level so that you can measure the efficiency of the total game.”
 
Well, Tom, that was a great idea. We’ve taken a number of steps here to provide the answer:
 
First, we calculated the rusher rating of each NFL team last year. Interestingly, New England finished No. 1, largely because the team was so incredibly careful with the ball: just nine fumbles all year, easily the fewest in the NFL. 
 
So the Patriots combined the league’s highest rated passing attack with the highest-rated rushing attack. No wonder they went 14-2 and easily scored more points than any other team.
 
The next step was to produce a total team offensive rating, combining rusher rating with passer rating. We weighted the individual components based on the number of attempts to calculate the overall offensive rating.
 
This same concept can then be applied to the defensive side of the ball.  So the final step was to combine both to provide a Total Team Rating.
 
First, we need the Rusher Rating for each of the teams for the 2010 season:
 
Final 2010 Offensive Rusher Rating

Team	Attempts	Yards	YPA	TD	Fumbles	Rusher Rating
*New England Patriots	454	1973	4.35	19	9	103.9
Houston Texans	423	2042	4.83	20	15	103.8
Minnesota Vikings	441	1942	4.40	16	20	87.1
*Atlanta Falcons	497	1891	3.81	14	12	86.9
*Kansas City Chiefs	556	2627	4.73	13	15	86.3
*Indianapolis Colts	393	1483	3.77	13	14	85.5
New York Giants	480	2200	4.58	17	26	83.1
San Diego Chargers	457	1810	3.96	18	25	83.0
Oakland Raiders	504	2494	4.95	19	32	82.7
*Philadelphia Eagles	428	2324	5.43	18	33	82.7
Jacksonville Jaguars	512	2395	4.68	14	23	81.0
*Pittsburgh Steelers	471	1924	4.09	15	22	80.8
*Seattle Seahawks	385	1424	3.70	13	18	80.4
*New York Jets	534	2374	4.45	14	23	79.6
Tennessee Titans	406	1727	4.25	13	22	78.3
St. Louis Rams	429	1578	3.68	9	14	75.8
Detroit Lions	404	1613	3.99	11	20	74.9
*Green Bay Packers	421	1606	3.82	11	20	74.0
*Chicago Bears	414	1616	3.90	10	19	73.5
*Baltimore Ravens	487	1831	3.76	11	22	71.7
San Francisco 49ers	401	1657	4.13	10	22	71.1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	431	2001	4.64	9	24	70.0
Cleveland Browns	413	1646	3.99	13	29	68.7
Denver Broncos	398	1544	3.88	13	29	67.9
*New Orleans Saints	380	1519	4.00	9	23	66.6
Cincinnati Bengals	428	1522	3.56	8	21	65.3
Dallas Cowboys	428	1786	4.17	10	28	64.9
Miami Dolphins	445	1643	3.69	8	24	63.1
Washington Redskins	351	1461	4.16	9	29	58.7
Carolina Panthers	428	1846	4.31	7	31	56.2
Arizona Cardinals	320	1388	4.34	9	33	52.0
Buffalo Bills	401	1720	4.29	6	33	50.1

*Playoff Teams
 
Now, let’s take a look at the Total Offensive Rating for the 2010 season, which is a weighted average of the Passer Rating and Rusher Rating:
 
Final 2010 Combined Total Offensive Rating

Team	Passing Attempts	Passer Rating	Rushing Attempts	Rusher Rating	Total Offensive Rating
*New England Patriots	507	109.8	454	103.9	107.0
Houston Texans	574	92.0	423	103.8	97.0
San Diego Chargers	544	101.9	457	83.0	93.3
*Indianapolis Colts	679	91.9	393	85.5	90.0
*Atlanta Falcons	577	90.8	497	86.9	89.0
*Pittsburgh Steelers	479	95.2	471	80.8	88.1
*Kansas City Chiefs	475	90.1	556	86.3	88.1
*Philadelphia Eagles	561	92.1	428	82.7	88.0
*Green Bay Packers	541	98.9	421	74.0	88.0
New York Giants	539	85.3	480	83.1	84.2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	494	96.2	431	70.0	84.0
*Baltimore Ravens	491	93.6	487	71.7	82.7
Jacksonville Jaguars	469	83.4	512	81.0	82.1
*New Orleans Saints	661	90.8	380	66.6	82.0
Tennessee Titans	474	82.6	406	78.3	80.6
Oakland Raiders	491	77.5	504	82.7	80.1
Dallas Cowboys	576	90.4	428	64.9	79.5
Detroit Lions	633	82.0	404	74.9	79.3
Denver Broncos	580	86.8	398	67.9	79.1
*New York Jets	525	76.5	534	79.6	78.1
Minnesota Vikings	505	67.7	441	87.1	76.8
*Chicago Bears	466	79.5	414	73.5	76.7
St. Louis Rams	590	76.5	429	75.8	76.2
San Francisco 49ers	500	79.4	401	71.1	75.7
*Seattle Seahawks	544	72.1	385	80.4	75.5
Cincinnati Bengals	590	82.4	428	65.3	75.2
Cleveland Browns	478	75.0	413	68.7	72.1
Washington Redskins	605	78.1	351	58.7	71.0
Miami Dolphins	557	74.8	445	63.1	70.0
Buffalo Bills	519	75.2	401	50.1	64.3
Arizona Cardinals	561	60.5	320	52.0	57.4
Carolina Panthers	484	57	428	56.2	56.6

*Playoff Teams
 
Seven of the top 10 offenses made the playoffs last year. The New York Giants and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had better records than the Seattle Seahawks, but missed out on the playoffs.
 
The Giants boasted the 10-ranked offense (based on this system) and the Buccaneers were the 11-ranked offense. Seattle was No. 25. But the Seahawks were an anomaly by any statistical measure last year, not just its offensive rating.
 
Of course, offense is only one part of the game. Let’s apply the same philosophy to the defense, namely Defensive Passer Rating (a CHFF Quality Stat) and defensive rusher rating for the 2010 season. Keep in mind that the lower the number, the better the defense.
 
Final 2010 Defensive Rating

Team	Passing Attempts	Passer Rating Against	Rushing Attempts	Rusher Rating Against	Total Defensive Rating
*Pittsburgh Steelers	593	70.8	333	62.4	67.8
*Green Bay Packers	527	64.6	395	82.0	72.0
*New York Jets	531	75.1	408	74.9	75.0
*Baltimore Ravens	596	75.1	384	75.7	75.4
New York Giants	539	78.2	389	72.2	75.7
St. Louis Rams	570	78.2	404	78.4	78.3
*Chicago Bears	582	72.7	386	87.8	78.7
*New England Patriots	611	79.8	409	82.2	80.8
Cleveland Browns	507	83.4	505	78.9	81.2
Miami Dolphins	502	83.2	447	79.6	81.5
*Kansas City Chiefs	581	76.2	408	89.6	81.7
Tennessee Titans	625	84.6	474	79.1	82.2
*Philadelphia Eagles	536	78.5	423	88.2	82.8
*New Orleans Saints	494	81.1	421	85.2	83.0
*Atlanta Falcons	560	80.5	366	88.0	83.5
San Diego Chargers	488	73.7	404	95.3	83.5
Minnesota Vikings	529	84.1	417	82.7	83.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	521	76.4	444	92.9	84.0
San Francisco 49ers	550	88.1	447	82.0	85.4
Oakland Raiders	470	82.1	474	91.4	86.8
Carolina Panthers	526	79.2	503	97.9	88.3
*Seattle Seahawks	585	87.9	452	90.6	89.1
Arizona Cardinals	533	81.8	526	96.9	89.3
Cincinnati Bengals	514	83.7	416	97.3	89.8
Dallas Cowboys	540	90.8	402	88.6	89.9
Washington Redskins	578	88.4	444	93.7	90.7
Detroit Lions	518	86.8	443	97.0	91.5
*Indianapolis Colts	535	90.2	445	93.6	91.8
Buffalo Bills	473	90.1	571	97.3	94.1
Houston Texans	547	98.8	433	101.9	100.2
Denver Broncos	502	91.7	531	114.1	103.2
Jacksonville Jaguars	506	96.1	416	112.8	103.6

*Playoff Teams
 
The rating mirrors scoring defense fairly closely, with teams such as Pittsburgh and Green Bay the top two in both scoring defense and defensive rating and teams such as Houston, Denver and Jacksonville among the worst in both indicators.
 
With this information in hand, we can determine the Total Team Rating. Since the Total Defensive Rating is inversely proportional to the Total Offensive Rating, we subtract the Total Defensive Rating from 158.3 (perfection) for the Total Team Rating calculations.
 
Final 2010 Total Team Rating

Team	Offensive Plays	Total Offensive Rating	Defensive Plays	Total Defensive Rating	Total Team Rating
*New England Patriots	961	107.0	1020	80.8	91.8
*Pittsburgh Steelers	950	88.1	926	67.8	89.3
*Green Bay Packers	962	88.0	922	72.0	87.2
San Diego Chargers	1001	93.3	892	83.5	84.6
New York Giants	1019	84.2	928	75.7	83.4
*Baltimore Ravens	978	82.7	980	75.4	82.8
*Kansas City Chiefs	1031	88.1	989	81.7	82.5
*Atlanta Falcons	1074	89.0	926	83.5	82.4
*Philadelphia Eagles	989	88.0	959	82.8	81.8
*New York Jets	1059	78.1	939	75.0	80.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	925	84.0	965	84.0	79.1
*New Orleans Saints	1041	82.0	915	83.0	78.9
*Indianapolis Colts	1072	90.0	980	91.8	78.8
*Chicago Bears	880	76.7	968	78.7	78.2
Tennessee Titans	880	80.6	1099	82.2	78.1
St. Louis Rams	1019	76.2	974	78.3	78.1
Houston Texans	997	97.0	980	100.2	77.7
Oakland Raiders	995	80.1	944	86.8	75.9
Minnesota Vikings	946	76.8	946	83.5	75.8
Cleveland Browns	891	72.1	1012	81.2	74.8
San Francisco 49ers	901	75.7	997	85.4	74.2
Dallas Cowboys	1004	79.5	942	89.9	74.1
Miami Dolphins	1002	70.0	949	81.5	73.3
Detroit Lions	1037	79.3	961	91.5	73.3
*Seattle Seahawks	929	75.5	1037	89.1	72.2
Cincinnati Bengals	1018	75.2	930	89.8	72.0
Washington Redskins	956	71.0	1022	90.7	69.2
Jacksonville Jaguars	981	82.1	922	103.6	68.8
Denver Broncos	978	79.1	1033	103.2	68.8
Buffalo Bills	920	64.3	1044	94.1	64.3
Arizona Cardinals	881	57.4	1059	89.3	63.7
Carolina Panthers	912	56.6	1029	88.3	63.7

 
With this in hand, we have a good look at the overall quality of a team. Of the top 15 teams, 11 made the playoffs of the 12 possible positions. Seattle’s division win at 7-9 would skew any system. If the playoffs were determined by overall record, then the 12 playoff teams would have come from the top 14 teams based on Total Team Rating. 

---

---

Read more: Ken Crippen, NFL, Passer Rating System, Rusher Rating System, Total Team Rating System