The eternal mystery of Draft Day

There are eternal mysteries that have defied mankind through the millennia.

 

Are we alone in the universe? Is there a divine power? And why do NFL teams trip over themselves each April in a race to draft first-round wide receivers when they go belly-up faster than the lake fish of Chernobyl?

 

We're fairly certain humans will uncover the secrets of their existence long before we football-loving trolls figure out why NFL teams are so fascinated by wide receivers in the first round of the draft.

 

Here's the five-wide set version of the problem:

 

ONE – Teams are inexplicably blinded by wide receivers. Maybe it's the speed, the grace or the gold-capped teeth. But in the 12 drafts since 1996, NFL teams have snapped up 51 wide receivers in the first round – making it the single most frequently drafted position in the first round. More so than with running backs, tackles, defensive ends or even quarterbacks, NFL teams come to the odd conclusion that their No. 1 pick is best spent on a wide receiver who is likely to fail.

 

TWO – The problem is only getting worse. If anything, the passion GMs have for wide receivers is accelerating, with 19 first-round wideouts nabbed in the four drafts from 2004 to 2007. Of those 19, only Arizona's Larry Fitzgerald has truly lived up to the hype.

 

THREE – Teams grossly over-estimate the impact a wide receiver can have on a team. If you can name a wide receiver who had a sudden impact on the fortunes of his team, you'll be the first. The truth is that wide receiver is probably the least important position on the field, virtually incapable of making an impact on the fortunes of a franchise if it has holes defensively, on the offensive line or at quarterback. Basically, the issue is this: a lot of things need to go right before a receiver even touches the ball. He can make very little happen on his own.

 

FOUR – Teams need "building block" players before they need wideouts. Your offense could field Jerry Rice, Don Hutson, Marvin Harrison and Lance Alworth at the peaks of their careers, but if you have Tony Mandarich at left tackle and Ryan Leaf at quarterback, your offense is still going to suck. The truth is that teams should not draft a wide receiver with their first pick unless they have a legit No. 1 quarterback, a shutdown corner, a stud pass rusher and a franchise left tackle. Only then, after all the building blocks are in place, should serious resources be devoted to the ancillary wide receiver position.

 

FIVE – Stud wide receivers fail with dizzying consistency. This is really the crux of the issue here. We might understand the grip wide receivers had on NFL teams if the position so readily produced first-round studs. But it  does not. For reasons that probably have a lot to do with the qualities that make even star receivers petulant prima donnas, they fail more often than socialist economic theory.

 

Sure, teams have uncovered some first-round gems at the position. But for every Hall of Fame caliber Marvin Harrison, Randy Moss and Torry Holt taken in the first round since 1996, there have been four Yatil Greens, Marcus Nashes and R. Jay Sowards ... guys who crash and burn faster than your neighborhood OxyContin junkie.

 

The 51 first-round wide receivers taken in the last 12 years have combined for 40 Pro Bowl appearances. But more than half of those, 21 in fact, have been produced by just three players: Harrison, Holt and Moss.

 

To highlight the rate of failure by wide receivers, we divided the 51 first-round draft picks over the last 12 years into four categories: the outright Busts, the Underachievers, the Stars and the Hall of Famers. For the sake of fairness, we did not yet judge the class of 2007, because it's just too early to make any judgments yet about their careers. We break out those five No. 1 picks separately at the bottom.

 

All in all, folks, it's not a pretty picture, with the Busts outnumbering Hall of Famers 4 to 1 and Underachievers outpacing the Stars 2 to 1.

 

Player	Draft	Team	Pick	Games	Rec.	Yards	Avg	TD	Pro Bowls
Yatil Green	1997	Miami	15	8	18	234	13	0	0
Reidel Anthony	1997	Tampa	16	73	144	1846	12.8	16	0
Rae Carruth	1997	Carolina	27	22	62	804	13	4	0
Marcus Nash	1998	Denver	30	11	4	76	19	0	0
Troy Edwards	1999	Pittsburgh	13	92	203	2404	11.8	11	0
Peter Warrick	2000	Cincy	4	79	275	2991	10.9	18	0
Sylvestor Morris	2000	KC	21	15	48	678	14.1	3	0
R. Jay Soward	2000	Jax	29	13	14	154	11	1	0
David Terrell	2001	Chicago	8	54	128	1602	12.5	9	0
Freddie Mitchell	2001	Philly	25	63	90	1263	14	5	0
Charles Rogers	2003	Detroit	2	15	36	440	12.2	4	0
Reggie Williams	2004	Jax	9	63	152	1958	12.9	15	0
Rashaun Woods	2004	San Fran	31	14	7	160	22.9	1	0
Troy Williamson	2005	Minnesota	7	39	79	1067	13.5	3	0
Mike Williams	2005	Detroit	10	30	44	539	12.3	2	0
Roddy White	2005	Atlanta	27	48	142	2154	14.5	9	0

 

 

These were No. 1 draft picks well spent and  what you reasonably want out of such a high selection: someone who's a consistent high-level contributor in the NFL and even makes a few Pro Bowl appearances. They number just eight by our count. But These are guys who have been fairly consistent 1,000-yard receivers and major weapons for the teams that drafted them and for other teams they may have played for later in their careers. It would be great to get a Hall of Famer from your No. 1 pick, but that's the exception rather than the rule. If your team spent a No. 1 pick on one of these guys, you have little to complain about (though you probably still would have been better off with a franchise LT or pass-rushing DE).

 

No complaints here. You picked one of these four guys, you hit the mother lode. These are once in a lifetime franchise receivers. And, interestingly enough, three of the four (Harrison, Holt and Fitzgerald) are still with their original teams, while the fourth, Moss, is fresh off a record-setting season with a team that went 16-0. Like all Hall of Famers, these guys are the exceptions, not the rule. And if your team drafted one of these guys, you're pretty happy - unless, of course, you're an Arizona fan, a team that has wasted undue resources on the wide receiver position, with the utter lack of success to show for it. Fitzgerald looks like one of the great players in the game today. But he came on the heels of two patented underachievers: David Boston and Bryant Johnson.

 

Player	Draft	Team	Pick	Games	Rec.	Yards	Avg.	TD	Pro Bowls
Marvin Harrison	1996	Indy	19	175	1042	13944	13.4	123	8
Randy Moss	1998	Minnesota	21	154	774	12193	15.8	124	6
Torry Holt	1999	St. Louis	6	142	805	11864	14.7	71	7
Larry Fitzgerald	2004	Arizona	3	60	330	4544	13.8	34	2

 

The jury's still out on the wide receiver draft class of 2007, so we'll reserve judgement until further evidence is as at hand. Dwayne Bowe, playing while shackled by the inept Kansas City offense, had the only thing close to a break-out rookie year, while Detroit's Calvin Johnson grabbed 48 passes and 4 TD. Not bad for the position, considering that Jerry Rice himself caught 49 passes and 3 TDs his rookie year.

 

But naturally, it was a wide receiver who provided the greatest disappointment of the Class of 2007. Robert Meachem, selected by New Orleans with the No. 27 pick last year, was the only first-rounder last year who never stepped on the field.

By Kerry Byrne