The dismal mock-draft scorecard

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Mar 31, 2009

(Ed. Note: Mock drafts are so useless, as you'll learn below, that we leave ours in the pre-hensile hands of a pigskin-prognosticating primate. Check out Bonzo the Idiot Monkey's totally useless 2009 mock draft here.)

If you're obsessing over all those mock drafts this month, the joke's on you.

We've been tracking the record of several mock draft "experts" since our first off-season in 2005. We've found that the performance of these "experts" is so dismal that we confused it with the outlook for the global economy.

The best mock-draft "experts" can tell you who was twice named SEC player of the year. They can tell you who banged out the most bench reps at the Combine. They can tell you who's raised concerns because of off-field behavior issues.

But at the end of the day, they can't deliver the promised goods: they can't tell you which player will end up with which team!

To put it another way, the mock draft contributes so little to society that we swear we saw it protesting outside the G-20 summit in London today.

Our panel of six noted football writers and mock draft "experts" accurately predicted just 19.9 percent of first-round picks last year. They accurately predicted 0 percent of picks beyond the first round ... which proves to us that there are only two things more useless than a mock draft:

A mock draft that foolishly purports to know what's going to happen beyond the first round
A person who follows mock drafts

Here's a look at how our six "experts" performed last year with their first-round mock drafts. We also compared them to CHFF mock-draft "expert" Bonzo the Idiot Monkey - an imaginary monkey who devotes not a single second to studying the draft and who each year pulls names out of the pocket of Kerry's dirty hoodie. (See Bonzo's 2008 mock draft here and his brand-new 2009 mock draft here.)

2008 MOCK DRAFT SCORECARD

Mock Draft "Expert"	No. Correct	Pct.
Rick Gosselin	8 of 31*	25.8%
Mel Clueless Kiper	7 of 31	22.6%
Scouts Inc. (Todd McShay)	7 of 31	22.6%
OurLads	6 of 31	19.4%
Jay Glazer (Fox Sports)	5 of 31	16.1%
Pete Sister Prisco (CBS Sports)	4 of 31	12.9%
Bonzo the Idiot Monkey	2 of 31	6.5%
Totals (not including Bonzo)	37 of 186	19.9%

* There were only 31 picks in the first round of the 2008 NFL draft, as the Patriots were stripped of their selection in the wake of the "spygate" controversy.

Think of that: Bonzo the Idiot Monkey, an imaginary simian who pulled names out of a dirty hoodie pocket, got two correrct. Yet CBS Sports' Pete Prisco, allegedly a functioning human with a large cranial cavity and a modicum of football knowledge, got just four picks correct.

WORSE THAN IT LOOKS!

But folks, here's the dirty part: the track record of the mock draft "pundits" was even worse than 19.9-percent "success" rate wold indicate.

Everybody knew Jake Long was going to Miami with the No. 1 pick last year because, well, he signed with the Dolphins four days before the draft. Hell, even our own Bonzo the Idiot Monkey got that one right. And they all predicted Chris Long would go to St. Louis with the second pick.

After those two picks, it was a complete disaster for the "pundits." They combined to accurately predict just 25 of 174 (14.4%) first-round picks beyond the second selection.

IT GETS EVEN WORSE!!

Most "pundits" knew that the Raiders would grab Darren McFadden with the No. 4 pick, after Al Davis' love letters to the Arkansas running back were published in the Oakland Tribune.

And all but Sister Prisco accurately predicted that Felix Jones would go to Dallas with the 22nd pick, after the Cowboys telegraphed their desire for the Arkansas running back so loudly it was picked up on the International Space Station.

So, the two Longs and the two Arkansas running backs combined to provide 21 of the combined 37 picks our six mock-draft "experts" got correct.

Other than those four players, the mock draft "pundits" accurately predicted just 16 of 162 (9.9 percent) picks through the rest of the first round.

We should all have it so good as the mock-draft "expert." He doesn't have to be correct. He just needs to publish a mock draft and people eat it up.

Of the six "pundits" we looked at last year, only Dallas Morning News columnist Rick Gosselin accurately predicted more than 25 percent of his first-round picks (8 of 31). That's actually something of a vindication for the Cold, Hard Football Facts. We added Gosselin to our mock-draft review list a couple years ago, after he was recommended to us as one of the more consistently accurate mock-drafters in the nation. As usual, our source was correct.

Even more impressive, Gosselin actually has other responsibilities, like covering the Cowboys.

Mel Kiper & Co. focus on the draft 24-7-365, yet still have no clue when the real draft rolls around.

LONG-TERM TRENDS

Last year's dismal performance by the mock-drafters was hardly a one-time event.

Of the six mock-draft "experts" we looked at last year, we've followed four of them each of the past four years.

Here's a look at the cumulative success rate of those four draft "pundits" over the four NFL drafts from 2005 to 2008. Notice that the most well-known "pundits," Mel Kiper Jr. and Scouts Inc. (as represented by Todd McShay) have truly abysmal rates of success. OurLads, a lesser known draft "authority," has been the best.

MOCK DRAFT TRACK RECORD (first round, 2005-08)

Mock Draft Clown	No. correct	Pct.
OurLads	35 of 127	27.6%
Jay Glazer (Fox Sports)	33 of 127	26.0%
Mel Kiper Jr.	32 of 127	25.2%
Scouts Inc.	29 of 127	22.8%
Total	129 of 508	25.4%

THE PACK MENTALITY

Cold, Hard Football Facts readers are intimately familiar with the pack mentality of the pigskin "pundits." For example, ou can be fairly certain of finding pretty much the same storyline in every paper and website on any given day.

Only the Cold, Hard Football Facts zig when the others zag, providing you fresh, unique and original analysis. (As our pal Gerry Callahan of sports radio WEEI.com noted before the Super Bowl.)

Consider the pack mentality in the 2008 draft that caused the "experts" to miss a sure thing with the No. 3 pick.

The Falcons last year had the No. 3 pick. They were also so desperate for a quarterback that team executives were giving out handjobs in airport bathrooms to raise money for one. Everybody but the mock-draft "experts" knew Boston College quarterback Matt Ryan, the top-rated passer coming out of college last year, would still be on the board with the No. 3 pick. And every reasonable person in the nation figured the Falcons would grab Ryan with the No. 3 pick ...

... except for the mock-draft "pundits."

Almost every single one of them had Atlanta taking LSU defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey, with Ryan falling to Baltimore's No. 8 pick. They "experts" couldn't have whiffed more badly on such an obvious selection: Ryan to Atlanta with the No. 3 pick.

Bottom line: mock drafts are useless. They serve no purpose. If you want to educate yourself about the draft, study the most highly rated players at each position and then study team needs and draw your own conclusions. Do not waste another second of your life on the mock draft.

By Kerry Byrne

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