Super Study Breakdown of Super Bowl XLVII, Part 4

By Adam Dobrowolski (@tabsports)
Cold, Hard Football Facts Super-Powered Mathlete

Happy Super Bowl Sunday everyone! As we hit the final stretch of the 2012 season, we'll save the hangover for tomorrow to let the party hit its climax: Super Bowl XLVII. As we've discussed in the first three parts of this series, today's match-up between the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers continues a theme with an unlikely conference champion facing a well-qualified team.

The Ravens became the fifth team in the last six years to make the Super Bowl with a 10-6 record or worse. Meanwhile, the 49ers are ninth team in the last eight years with a top two seed to make the Super Bowl, but the other teams are 2-6 in that span.

As we look back to our epic Super Study to break down some key elements in today's match-up, we see how we got more of the same with this match-up. Overall, the study suggested the 2012 49ers had only two red flags that could prevent them from making a run to win Super Bowl XLVII. Meanwhile, the 2012 Ravens had six red flags, which suggested this run was indeed an unlikely and special one.

As this series concludes, we look at the important match-up of them all: the quarterback battle as it relates to postseason experience and passing efficiency. Does this finally give the 49ers a significant advantage, or will the Ravens actually prove to be the more likely champion?

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Obviously, we know in full detail here at Cold, Hard Football Facts, the passing battle matters the most. It's no different in the Super Bowl. Before we get to recap the power of the mother of all stats, Passer Rating Differential, let's look at playoff experience for the starting quarterbacks. Super Bowl history tells an interesting story about the starting quarterbacks.

The chart below looks at playoff record of Super Bowl quarterbacks at they started that playoff run.

As playoff history shows, Super Bowl winning quarterbacks normally need to get a playoff win out of their system. Quarterbacks with a winless playoff record lost 12 of 14 games in the Super Bowl.  Meanwhile, quarterbacks without playoff starts own an 11-8 Super Bowl record, with the Super Bowl III and XXXIV match-ups features two starting quarterbacks with no previous playoff starts.

It's honestly surprising to see so many quarterbacks without previous playoff starts making the Super Bowl. Colin Kaepernick becomes the 20th such signal caller in the big game's history. Meanwhile, Joe Flacco's experience is certainly impressive, as this postseason he became fifth quarterback in league history to win a playoff game in five consecutive seasons.

• Baltimore Ravens: Joe Flacco, 5-4 playoff record
• San Francisco 49ers: Colin Kaepernick, 0-0 playoff record

Note that quarterbacks with at least five previous playoff wins own a 12-10 Super Bowl record. Meanwhile, the four other quarterbacks with playoff wins in five consecutive seasons did the following in their final year: Ken Stabler (lost in AFC Championship Game), Troy Aikman (lost in Divisional Round), Donovan McNabb (lost Super Bowl XXXIX), Tom Brady (lost Super Bowl XLII).

Add in the fact that well-experienced quarterbacks lost each of the last five Super Bowls, and Joe Flacco isn't going to walk over Colin Kaepernick despite the 4-1 record between the Flacco camp (5+ playoff wins) and the Kaepernick camp (no previous playoff starts). After all, Kaepernick will make only his 10th career start, and opposing defense are still trying to figure out the read option. This game should feature strong play from both quarterbacks. Advantage: Ravens (slightly)

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So who's going to win Super Bowl XLVII? Of the first eight match-ups we looked at through the Super Study, the 49ers own the advantage in four parts and the Ravens own the advantage in three parts (one part had a neutral advantage). Ultimately, this should come down to Passer Rating Differential, the mother of all stats. We've already detailed the week-by-week totals for each team in our Real and Spectacular Pick for Super Bowl XLVII.

Instead of detailing that again, let's look back to the past Super Bowl combatants.

Well there you have it. Most champions absolutely dominate this quality stat. Only five Super Bowl champions received a red flag. With a win, the Ravens become the sixth.

• Baltimore Ravens: +5.78 Passer Rating Differential (regular season)
• San Francisco 49ers: +23.18 Passer Rating Differential (regular season)

Before we chalk up a 49ers victory, note that the Ravens improved their PRD to +12.33 when the playoffs are included. Credit Joe Flacco, who owns a 114.7 passer rating in the postseason. Meanwhile, the 49ers' PRD dropped to +20.59 with the postseason included. It's not Colin Kaepernick's fault, as he owns a 105.9 passer rating in his two playoff starts. Instead, the pass defense is struggling since Justin Smith's injury in Week 15.

Regardless, if the Ravens win Super Bowl XLVII, they will have the third-worst regular season Passer Rating Differential in the big game's 47-year history. Furthermore, they will face their toughest defensive challenge through the air: San Francisco ranked 6th in Defensive Passer Rating in the regular season. The other three Ravens opponents fared worse: Broncos (9th), Patriots (17th) and Colts (22nd). Meanwhile, the 49ers played elite passing offenses in their first two playoff games (Packers were first and Falcons were sixth). There's still a considerable upper hand in this match-up. Advantage: 49ers