Super Study Breakdown of Super Bowl XLVII, Part 2

By Adam Dobrowolski (@tabsports)
Cold, Hard Football Facts Super-Powered Mathlete

**Click here for Part I** 

As yesterday began an in-depth look at the Ravens and 49ers matching up in Super Bowl XLVII, with the focus on January's epic Super Study, we saw a few reasons why the NFL continues to produce unlikely Super Bowl champions in the past decade. As the media focuses on the Harbowl and Ray Lewis' Last Ride, they haven't detailed what's really driving this year's narrative of the big game: more of the same.

We have more of the same because once again an unlikely team makes a run towards the Super Bowl. For the fifth time in six years, one of the Super Bowl combatants owns a 9-7 or 10-6 regular season record. Because of that, many recently concluded that the playoffs come down to which team gets hot at the correct time. Does that mean teams like the 2011 Packers (15-1 regular season record) and the 2012 Broncos (11-game winning streak) were doomed because they were no longer peaking?

We try to answer that question as we look back to our epic Super Study that analyzed how every Super Bowl combatant stacked up according to 12 possible red flags. Remember, the study showed the 2012 49ers had only two red flags, making them a decent candidate to win Super Bowl XLVII. Meanwhile, the 2012 Ravens had six red flags, proving this run was an unlikely and special one.

In the last seven Super Bowls, the team with more red flags won six times. Can the Ravens keep up the trend? We examine some of the key match-ups by breaking down the epic Super Study in this four-part series. Today, we look at weak starts, weak finishes and losing streaks for each Super Bowl combatant.

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First, let's look at the how each Super Bowl team started and finished in the regular season. Any time a team starts the season 0-2, the Mainstream Media quickly hits the panic button for these teams. Not only do teams rarely make it to the Super Bowl after that slow start (four teams total), but they are at a severe disadvantage just to make the playoffs. However, a slow finish holds just as much weight, as the chart shows below.

Once again, it would seem that the recent tear of unlikely conference champions might be making the slow finish less detrimental than we originally thought. However, these results are actually misleading, because three of the red flag teams were the top seed in their conference.

The 2009 season provided a unique pair of "slow finishing" team, with the Saints starting 13-0 before their three-game losing streak and the Colts starting 14-0 before their two-game losing streak. New Orleans rested in their starters in Week 17, while the Colts rested their starters for the final six quarters of the regular season. Meanwhile, the the 2004 Eagles rested their starters very similarly to the 2009 Colts.

Keep in mind te resting starters as we take a look at each Super Bowl XLVII combatant.

• Baltimore Ravens: "even" start (1-1), "-3" finish (1-4)
• San Francisco 49ers: "over" start (2-1), "even" finish (1-1)

At first glance, it seems like the 49ers would have the clear cut advantage. After all, they've been amazingly consistent throughout the season, with no true valley to accompany their constant rise. However, two things must be considered for the Ravens when we look at their 1-4 finish.

First, they rested their starters in Week 17 after a few series. They already clinched the fourth seed, so they decided to play Tyrod Taylor to finish the game against the Cincinnati Bengals. Despite allowing only nine first downs, the Ravens lost 23-17. With a win, Baltimore would've entered the playoffs on a winning streak and without a red flag. Second, the Ravens shed any negative momentum as soon as Ray Lewis announced he would retire after the postseason. If there's anything to trump increasing confidence heading into the postseason, it must be the transcendent motivation Baltimore possesses. Sometimes, these red flags can be misleading. For the Ravens, perhaps the 1-4 finish was simply the darkest time before dawn. Advantage: Ravens

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For the second part of today's analysis, we look at where Baltimore's three-game losing streak stands among the 94 Super Bowl combatants in league history. The Ravens lost three games in a row from Week 13 to 15. The first loss came at the end of regulation when the Pittsburgh Steelers kicked home a 23-20 win that ended Baltimore's home and divisional winning streaks. The second came in overtime against a Washington Redskins that concluded the regular season with a seven-game winning streak. The third loss featured a Denver Broncos blowout victory. This three-game losing streak is quite uncommon among Super Bowl teams, as seen below.

The Ravens became the seventh Super Bowl team in the last 13 years to have a three-game losing streak or worse. Only the 1979 Rams did this in the first 34 years. To be honest, there's no known explanation for this.

Perhaps the best answer involves improved parity among franchises. Sure, the AFC has been dominated by four teams since 2000 (the Ravens, Patriots, Steelers and Colts combined for 40 playoff wins... the rest combined for 10 playoff wins). However, parity is better than ever in terms of year-to-year potential.

Since 1997, 16 teams improved by at least seven games in the a single season, including the Indianapolis Colts (2-14 to 11-5) and Minnesota Vikings (3-13 to 10-6) this season. This leads to a one team per season average. From 1979 to 1996, only five teams did this.

Bottom line, we no longer see constant push overs, save for maybe the Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions and Oakland Raiders. When there's no near-automatic wins, a losing streak is quite possible. Also, with the franchises more balanced out, teams can no longer escape with victories on a consistent basis when the passing offense or defense hits a cold spell. Opposing teams are simply too efficient through the air. Now, onto the Ravens and the 49ers.

• Baltimore Ravens: maximum three-game losing streak (Week 13-15)
• San Francisco 49ers: no losing streak all season

In the Week 13 loss, Joe Flacco completed only 16 of 34 passes for 188 yards with a touchdown and interception (61.89 passer rating). After that, the Ravens ran into two statistically elite quarterbacks this season (Robert Griffin III and Peyton Manning). Believe it or not, though, the blowout loss against Denver helped in the long run. The Ravens saw what the Broncos did well on both sides of the ball, and they made the necessary adjustments in the Divisional Round. Without that first time battling the Broncos, perhaps the Ravens would be eliminated at this point.

Still, there's not much reason to over-analyze this. The Ravens got the advantage earlier because Ray Lewis' looming retirement gave the Ravens another peak to their rollercoaster season. Meanwhile, the 49ers have never wavered, despite switching quarterbacks in the middle of the season. After a loss or tie, San Francisco won all five games by a combined 133-39 margin with four wins by 14+ points. If there's any team you can confidently claim the team will play on Sunday like they have all season, it's the NFC representative. Advantage: 49ers

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Adam Dobrowolski continues this series with a look next at each team's blowout losses and their respective point differential. He illustrates the difference between a 49ers team that didn't waver despite blowout losses  and a Ravens team that suffered blowout losses more indicative of their overall quality.