Rodgers, Ryan, Brady Best Ever Protecting The Football

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Nov 30, 2012

By Scott Kacsmar
Cold Hard Football Facts’ Comeback King (@CaptainComeback)

After throwing a career-high five interceptions against Atlanta on Thursday night, Drew Brees leads the NFL in interceptions with 16.

It's a high number in this day and age when turnover rates by quarterbacks are the lowest in history. Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan and Tom Brady are the all-time leaders in lowest turnover rate (INTs and fumbles) among all quarterbacks in NFL history.

Conversley, the current leaders in interceptions may have never included such an impressive list of names: Drew Brees (16), Tony Romo (15), Philip Rivers (14), Matt Ryan (13), Andrew Luck (13), and Brandon Weeden (13).

Weeden aside, this is a list of quarterbacks expected to be great. Some of them have been throughout the season, but there have been rough patches.

Ryan just threw five interceptions in a comeback win over Arizona in Week 11.

That’s the thing about turnovers. Some are insignificant, while some are just…

You can overcome turnovers, but Brees did not in a crucial game, and the Saints are 5-7.

In addition to 16 interceptions, Brees has also fumbled five times, losing one.

It would seem as though he is very turnover prone in 2012, but consider this comparison with all fumbles created equally as turnovers.

Drew Brees has 21 turnovers on 526 drop backs for a turnover rate of 3.99 percent, which is above his usual average.
Brandon Weeden has 17 turnovers on 434 drop backs for a turnover rate of 3.92 percent, which actually is not that bad for a rookie on a bad offense.

By converting turnovers into a rate stat, it is more informative than just the raw number.

Last season we looked at the turnover rate for all quarterbacks in NFL history with a minimum of 1,500 attempts, including both interceptions and fumbles. Let’s update that data through last night (start of Week 13), but we also highly recommend you review last year’s piece if you have never seen it before.

The formula and methodology are below.

The List

Here is the all-time list for turnover rate. We were tempted to add a column for “Ass Fumbles,” but only one player had one and it would not fit the screen properly. Sorry, Mark. “DB” stands for drop back.

Rk	QB	Pass	Sck	Run	DB	Fum	Fum%	INT	INT%	TO	TO%
1	Aaron Rodgers	2492	197	288	2977	34	1.14	45	1.81	79	2.65
2	Matt Ryan	2484	107	197	2788	23	0.82	59	2.38	82	2.94
3	Tom Brady	5741	291	394	6426	80	1.24	118	2.06	198	3.08
4	Joe Montana	5391	313	457	6161	53	0.86	139	2.58	192	3.12
5	Neil O'Donnell	3229	259	215	3703	51	1.38	68	2.11	119	3.21
6	Peyton Manning	7619	247	364	8230	59	0.72	206	2.70	265	3.22
7	Jeff Garcia	3676	181	467	4324	59	1.36	83	2.26	142	3.28
8	Donovan McNabb	5374	410	616	6400	95	1.48	117	2.18	212	3.31
9	Mark Brunell	4640	390	513	5543	76	1.37	108	2.33	184	3.32
10	Steve Young	4149	358	722	5229	68	1.30	107	2.58	175	3.35
11	Matthew Stafford	1624	89	73	1786	13	0.73	47	2.89	60	3.36
12	David Garrard	2281	179	380	2840	44	1.55	54	2.37	98	3.45
13	Matt Schaub	2657	139	172	2968	38	1.28	67	2.52	105	3.54
14	Kyle Orton	2214	132	110	2456	30	1.22	57	2.57	87	3.54
15	Joe Flacco	2350	165	190	2705	44	1.63	53	2.26	97	3.59
16	Drew Brees	5971	230	295	6496	72	1.11	162	2.71	234	3.60
17	Bernie Kosar	3365	273	180	3818	51	1.34	87	2.59	138	3.61
18	Rich Gannon	4206	302	521	5029	79	1.57	104	2.47	183	3.64
19	Matt Hasselbeck	5018	342	339	5699	63	1.11	147	2.93	210	3.68
20	Chad Pennington	2471	162	180	2813	41	1.46	64	2.59	105	3.73
21	Troy Aikman	4715	259	327	5301	58	1.09	141	2.99	199	3.75
22	Ben Roethlisberger	3629	332	308	4269	58	1.36	104	2.87	162	3.79
23	Marc Bulger	3171	254	118	3543	42	1.19	93	2.93	135	3.81
24	Jim McMahon	2573	226	338	3137	30	0.96	90	3.50	120	3.83
25	Brad Johnson	4326	251	276	4853	64	1.32	122	2.82	186	3.83
26	Bert Jones	2551	232	247	3030	16	0.53	101	3.96	117	3.86
27	Charlie Batch	1568	159	172	1899	23	1.21	51	3.25	74	3.90
28	Jason Campbell	2173	153	224	2550	48	1.88	52	2.39	100	3.92
29	Joey Harrington	2538	124	142	2804	25	0.89	85	3.35	110	3.92
30	Steve McNair	4544	254	669	5467	99	1.81	119	2.62	218	3.99
31	Steve Bono	1701	76	125	1902	34	1.79	42	2.47	76	4.00
32	Tony Romo	3048	168	181	3397	49	1.44	87	2.85	136	4.00
33	Philip Rivers	3413	203	205	3821	61	1.60	92	2.70	153	4.00
34	Ken Anderson	4475	398	397	5270	52	0.99	160	3.58	212	4.02
35	Carson Palmer	3994	201	209	4404	50	1.14	128	3.20	178	4.04
36	Jim Harbaugh	3918	361	561	4840	79	1.63	117	2.99	196	4.05
37	Dan Marino	8358	270	301	8929	110	1.23	252	3.02	362	4.05
38	Jeff George	3967	358	168	4493	70	1.56	113	2.85	183	4.07
39	Doug Flutie	2151	107	338	2596	38	1.46	68	3.16	106	4.08
40	Matt Cassel	2044	160	220	2424	42	1.73	57	2.79	99	4.08
41	Kordell Stewart	2358	170	601	3129	44	1.41	84	3.56	128	4.09
42	Neil Lomax	3153	362	222	3737	63	1.69	90	2.85	153	4.09
43	Trent Green	3740	259	243	4242	60	1.41	114	3.05	174	4.10
44	Tony Eason	1564	177	134	1875	26	1.39	51	3.26	77	4.11
45	Ken O'Brien	3602	353	174	4129	72	1.74	98	2.72	170	4.12
46	Elvis Grbac	2445	129	163	2737	32	1.17	81	3.31	113	4.13
47	Jeff Hostetler	2338	207	316	2861	48	1.68	71	3.04	119	4.16
48	Alex Smith	2176	196	210	2582	45	1.74	63	2.90	108	4.18
49	Joe Theismann	3602	340	355	4297	42	0.98	138	3.83	180	4.19
50	Byron Leftwich	1605	92	137	1834	35	1.91	42	2.62	77	4.20
51	John Elway	7250	516	774	8540	137	1.60	226	3.12	363	4.25
52	Michael Vick	2854	271	786	3911	86	2.20	81	2.84	167	4.27
53	Jeff Blake	3241	248	418	3907	68	1.74	99	3.05	167	4.27
54	Randall Cunningham	4289	484	775	5548	105	1.89	134	3.12	239	4.31
55	Drew Bledsoe	6717	467	385	7569	123	1.63	206	3.07	329	4.35
56	Aaron Brooks	2963	235	362	3560	64	1.80	92	3.10	156	4.38
57	Jim Everett	4923	257	257	5437	64	1.18	175	3.55	239	4.40
58	Josh Freeman	1664	93	181	1938	33	1.70	53	3.19	86	4.44
59	Brett Favre	10169	525	602	11296	166	1.47	336	3.30	502	4.44
60	Stan Humphries	2516	144	150	2810	41	1.46	84	3.34	125	4.45
61	Roger Staubach	2958	313	410	3681	55	1.49	109	3.68	164	4.46
62	Bubby Brister	2212	193	191	2596	38	1.46	78	3.53	116	4.47
63	Rick Mirer	2043	199	242	2484	35	1.41	76	3.72	111	4.47
64	Eli Manning	4315	207	209	4731	72	1.52	140	3.24	212	4.48
65	Phil Simms	4647	477	349	5473	93	1.70	157	3.38	250	4.57
66	Ryan Fitzpatrick	2100	134	237	2471	37	1.50	76	3.62	113	4.57
67	Fran Tarkenton	6467	483	675	7625	84	1.10	266	4.11	350	4.59
68	Erik Kramer	2299	122	153	2574	40	1.55	79	3.44	119	4.62
69	Jay Fiedler	1717	114	219	2050	29	1.41	66	3.84	95	4.63
70	Jim Kelly	4779	323	304	5406	76	1.41	175	3.66	251	4.64
71	Brian Griese	2796	193	238	3227	51	1.58	99	3.54	150	4.65
72	Jay Cutler	2807	190	246	3243	54	1.67	97	3.46	151	4.66
73	Jake Plummer	4350	284	428	5062	75	1.48	161	3.70	236	4.66
74	Mark Rypien	2613	97	127	2837	45	1.59	88	3.37	133	4.69
75	Chris Miller	2892	209	178	3279	52	1.59	102	3.53	154	4.70
76	Bill Kenney	2430	191	123	2744	43	1.57	86	3.54	129	4.70
77	Greg Landry	2300	316	430	3046	41	1.35	103	4.48	144	4.73
78	Dave Brown	1634	181	192	2007	37	1.84	58	3.55	95	4.73
79	Doug Williams	2507	84	220	2811	41	1.46	93	3.71	134	4.77
80	Kerry Collins	6261	337	374	6972	139	1.99	196	3.13	335	4.80
81	Wade Wilson	2428	217	239	2884	38	1.32	102	4.20	140	4.85
82	Gus Frerotte	3106	207	196	3509	65	1.85	106	3.41	171	4.87
83	Roman Gabriel	4498	348	358	5204	105	2.02	149	3.31	254	4.88
84	Jake Delhomme	2932	168	175	3275	62	1.89	101	3.44	163	4.98
85	Bobby Hebert	3121	178	195	3494	50	1.43	124	3.97	174	4.98
86	Ron Jaworski	4117	363	257	4737	72	1.52	164	3.98	236	4.98
87	Steve Beuerlein	3328	332	225	3885	82	2.11	112	3.37	194	4.99
88	Mark Sanchez	1764	118	115	1997	39	1.95	61	3.46	100	5.01
89	David Carr	2266	267	302	2835	71	2.50	71	3.13	142	5.01
90	Warren Moon	6823	458	543	7824	161	2.06	233	3.41	394	5.04
91	Bill Nelsen	1905	146	84	2135	41	1.92	67	3.52	108	5.06
92	Vinny Testaverde	6701	417	430	7548	116	1.54	267	3.98	383	5.07
93	Bill Munson	1982	192	130	2304	37	1.61	80	4.04	117	5.08
94	Sonny Jurgensen	4262	240	181	4683	50	1.07	189	4.43	239	5.10
95	Kurt Warner	4070	260	173	4503	102	2.27	128	3.14	230	5.11
96	Chris Chandler	4005	380	371	4756	98	2.06	146	3.65	244	5.13
97	Boomer Esiason	5205	318	447	5970	123	2.06	184	3.54	307	5.14
98	Tony Banks	2356	227	246	2829	73	2.58	73	3.10	146	5.16
99	Steve Bartkowski	3456	356	178	3990	62	1.55	144	4.17	206	5.16
100	Gary Danielson	1932	183	186	2301	41	1.78	78	4.04	119	5.17
101	Daunte Culpepper	3199	298	514	4011	102	2.54	106	3.31	208	5.19
102	Tim Couch	1714	166	124	2004	37	1.85	67	3.91	104	5.19
103	Steve DeBerg	5024	296	204	5524	83	1.50	204	4.06	287	5.20
104	Mike Pagel	1509	115	136	1760	29	1.65	63	4.17	92	5.23
105	Tommy Kramer	3651	249	214	4114	59	1.43	158	4.33	217	5.27
106	Jay Schroeder	2808	208	242	3258	64	1.96	108	3.85	172	5.28
107	Kyle Boller	1519	123	176	1818	42	2.31	54	3.55	96	5.28
108	Jim Zorn	3149	213	322	3684	54	1.47	141	4.48	195	5.29
109	Rex Grossman	1562	92	81	1735	32	1.84	60	3.84	92	5.30
110	Scott Mitchell	2346	155	172	2673	50	1.87	92	3.92	142	5.31
111	Rodney Peete	2346	244	270	2860	71	2.48	81	3.45	152	5.31
112	Billy Joe Tolliver	1707	125	99	1931	39	2.02	64	3.75	103	5.33
113	Jon Kitna	4442	323	313	5078	110	2.17	165	3.71	275	5.42
114	Brian Sipe	3439	224	223	3886	62	1.60	149	4.33	211	5.43
115	Archie Manning	3642	396	384	4422	73	1.65	173	4.75	246	5.56
116	Bart Starr	3149	235	247	3631	64	1.76	138	4.38	202	5.56
117	Bob Griese	3429	335	261	4025	52	1.29	172	5.02	224	5.57
118	Mike Tomczak	2337	114	198	2649	42	1.59	106	4.54	148	5.59
119	John Brodie	4491	142	235	4868	48	0.99	224	4.99	272	5.59
120	Joe Ferguson	4519	312	353	5184	82	1.58	209	4.62	291	5.61
121	Jim Hart	5076	282	159	5517	65	1.18	247	4.87	312	5.66
122	Dave Krieg	5311	494	417	6222	153	2.46	199	3.75	352	5.66
123	Dan Fouts	5604	319	224	6147	106	1.72	242	4.32	348	5.66
124	Trent Dilfer	3172	263	248	3683	82	2.23	129	4.07	211	5.73
125	Billy Kilmer	2984	206	362	3552	58	1.63	146	4.89	204	5.74
126	Craig Morton	3786	405	215	4406	68	1.54	187	4.94	255	5.79
127	Daryle Lamonica	2601	136	166	2903	32	1.10	138	5.31	170	5.86
128	Frank Ryan	2133	150	310	2593	42	1.62	111	5.20	153	5.90
129	Jim Plunkett	3701	380	323	4404	62	1.41	198	5.35	260	5.90
130	Mike Livingston	1751	152	156	2059	39	1.89	83	4.74	122	5.93
131	Johnny Unitas	5186	230	450	5866	95	1.62	253	4.88	348	5.93
132	Milt Plum	2419	74	217	2710	34	1.25	127	5.25	161	5.94
133	Danny White	2950	245	159	3354	68	2.03	132	4.47	200	5.96
134	Mark Malone	1648	86	159	1893	33	1.74	81	4.92	114	6.02
135	Richard Todd	2967	264	259	3490	50	1.43	161	5.43	211	6.05
136	Marc Wilson	2081	210	141	2432	46	1.89	102	4.90	148	6.09
137	Tom Flores	1715	9	82	1806	18	1.00	92	5.36	110	6.09
138	Charley Johnson	3392	242	196	3830	56	1.46	181	5.34	237	6.19
139	Vince Ferragamo	1615	94	60	1769	19	1.07	91	5.63	110	6.22
140	Len Dawson	3741	216	294	4251	84	1.98	183	4.89	267	6.28
141	Terry Bradshaw	3901	307	444	4652	84	1.81	210	5.38	294	6.32
142	Eric Hipple	1546	160	145	1851	47	2.54	70	4.53	117	6.32
143	Joe Namath	3762	150	71	3983	33	0.83	220	5.85	253	6.35
144	John Hadl	4687	198	351	5236	73	1.39	268	5.72	341	6.51
145	Dan Pastorini	3055	246	216	3517	69	1.96	161	5.27	230	6.54
146	Norm Snead	4353	270	212	4835	60	1.24	257	5.90	317	6.56
147	Jack Trudeau	1644	103	97	1844	52	2.82	69	4.20	121	6.56
148	Don Meredith	2308	218	242	2768	71	2.57	111	4.81	182	6.58
149	Mike Phipps	1799	172	254	2225	39	1.75	108	6.00	147	6.61
150	Billy Wade	2523	47	318	2888	57	1.97	134	5.31	191	6.61
151	Y.A. Tittle	3817	54	291	4162	56	1.35	221	5.79	277	6.66
152	Steve Grogan	3593	252	445	4290	81	1.89	208	5.79	289	6.74
153	Earl Morrall	2689	174	235	3098	63	2.03	148	5.50	211	6.81
154	Lynn Dickey	3125	297	140	3562	64	1.80	179	5.73	243	6.82
155	Don Majkowski	1905	180	248	2333	59	2.53	101	5.30	160	6.86
156	Ken Stabler	3793	281	118	4192	66	1.57	222	5.85	288	6.87
157	Otto Graham	1565	0	306	1871	35	1.87	94	6.01	129	6.89
158	Charlie Conerly	2833	0	270	3103	54	1.74	167	5.89	221	7.12
159	Tobin Rote	2907	0	635	3542	67	1.89	191	6.57	258	7.28
160	Norm Van Brocklin	2895	0	102	2997	45	1.50	178	6.15	223	7.44
161	Jack Kemp	3073	59	356	3488	78	2.24	183	5.96	261	7.48
162	Bobby Layne	3700	0	611	4311	80	1.86	243	6.57	323	7.49
163	Sammy Baugh	2995	0	324	3319	47	1.42	203	6.78	250	7.53
164	Sid Luckman	1744	0	204	1948	15	0.77	132	7.57	147	7.55
165	Cotton Davidson	1752	0	129	1881	35	1.86	108	6.16	143	7.60
166	Ed Brown	1987	80	265	2332	40	1.72	138	6.95	178	7.63
167	Babe Parilli	3330	32	383	3745	71	1.90	220	6.61	291	7.77
168	George Blanda	4007	17	135	4159	47	1.13	277	6.91	324	7.79
169	Frank Tripucka	1745	0	43	1788	21	1.17	124	7.11	145	8.11
170	Eddie LeBaron	1796	9	202	2007	44	2.19	141	7.85	185	9.22
171	Bob Waterfield	1617	0	75	1692	36	2.13	128	7.92	164	9.69

Comparison to 2011

Several active players (23 to be exact) were on this list last season, which came out after Week 7 of the 2011 season. Let’s compare how far they have gone up or down the list since then.

2011-12 Comp.	All-Time Rank			Turnover Rate
QB	2011	2012	Diff.	2011	2012	Diff.
Aaron Rodgers	1	1	0	2.85	2.65	0.20
Alex Smith	75	48	27	4.75	4.18	0.57
Ben Roethlisberger	30	22	8	3.96	3.79	0.17
Byron Leftwich	47	50	-3	4.22	4.20	0.02
Carson Palmer	35	35	0	4.05	4.04	0.01
Charlie Batch	23	27	-4	3.81	3.90	-0.08
David Carr	81	89	-8	4.98	5.01	-0.03
David Garrard	11	12	-1	3.45	3.45	0.00
Drew Brees	16	16	0	3.68	3.60	0.08
Eli Manning	68	64	4	4.66	4.48	0.18
Jason Campbell	26	28	-2	3.85	3.92	-0.08
Jay Cutler	71	72	-1	4.70	4.66	0.04
Joe Flacco	27	15	12	3.86	3.59	0.27
Kyle Orton	13	14	-1	3.63	3.54	0.09
Matt Cassel	17	40	-23	3.69	4.08	-0.39
Matt Hasselbeck	20	19	1	3.77	3.68	0.09
Matt Ryan	2	2	0	3.10	2.94	0.16
Matt Schaub	15	13	2	3.66	3.54	0.13
Michael Vick	51	52	-1	4.29	4.27	0.02
Peyton Manning	5	6	-1	3.27	3.22	0.05
Philip Rivers	21	33	-12	3.78	4.00	-0.22
Tom Brady	7	3	4	3.30	3.08	0.22
Tony Romo	50	32	18	4.28	4.00	0.28

Fittingly, it has been Matt Cassel and Philip Rivers taking the plunge with their increase in turnovers. Meanwhile there were considerable jumps for Tony Romo, Joe Flacco and especially Alex Smith.

If you were curious, on a very small sample size of 118 drop backs, Colin Kaepernick has a turnover rate of 3.39 percent.

Though he has some turnover issues this season, Drew Brees has so many plays in his career that the numbers barely move. He still comes in 16th all time, and yes it is strange to see Joe Flacco directly ahead of him.

The New Guys

Five players appear on the list after not meeting the 1,500-attempt requirement last season. They are Ryan Fitzpatrick, Rex Grossman, Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez and Josh Freeman.

Grossman has the highest turnover rate (5.30 percent) of all active players, which makes sense. He is the “Sex Cannon” after all.

But no starter is higher than Sanchez (5.01 percent). While his interceptions are not good for his era, it is indeed the fumble rate that actually makes him look worse, ranking 141st out of 171 players. Remember, the fumble rate (1.95) is not as era dependent as interceptions.

From the same draft class of 2009, Stafford has the third lowest fumble rate (0.73), just behind Peyton Manning (0.72).

Conclusion: Turnovers will continue to fascinate us

Turnovers will always be a part of the NFL, and quarterbacks will always be judged by them. This season we are actually experiencing a record pace of pick-sixes thrown by quarterbacks.

Eyeballing the updated table, you definitely want to be under 4.00 percent in today’s game when it comes to turnover rate. The style of offense can certainly dictate where these numbers end up, but fumbling will be more consistent to a player than his inconsistent interception rate and total.

Drew Brees will survive the five-interception game, even if he does go on to lead the league in picks. Many great players have done that already.

You just want to avoid the critical ones, or doing it on such a big stage in an important game like last night. At least Brees’ career will not be remembered for that one unlike a certain quarterback who turned the ball over in epic, comedic fashion last Thursday night.

Turnover Rate: The Formula

Included as a reminder of what the turnover rate is, here is the formula. Calculating a quarterback’s turnover rate is simple.

Turnover % = Total Turnovers x 100%

Total Drop Backs

Total Turnovers = Fumbles + Interceptions

Total Drop Backs = Pass Attempts + Sacks + Rushes

The same idea can be applied for a “Fumble %.”

Fumble % = Total Fumbles x 100%

Total Drop Backs

Disclaimer: Fumbles were used instead of fumbles lost due to a lack of data for the latter, plus the research from Football Outsiders that says fumble recoveries are random from year-to-year. Not fumbling the ball is a skill, and that is being rewarded here. Any time you fumble the ball you are giving the defense the opportunity for a recovery and turnover. So while the Turnover % may include a lot of fumbles that did not result in an actual turnover, for the purposes of this article, we are looking at all fumbles equally.

The Data

To officially qualify for rate statistics in the NFL, a quarterback must attempt at least 1,500 passes in the regular season. A total of 171 quarterbacks have done so, and they make up our sample size.

Out of the 171 quarterbacks, 35 of them have data that is incomplete in regards to the number of sacks, while two of those quarterbacks (Sammy Baugh, Sid Luckman) also have an incomplete number of fumbles.

Sacks are listed at nfl.com for all NFL seasons since 1963. They have the sack yardage for seasons back to 1947, but the times sacked only start in 1963. There are no sack stats (totals or yardage) for AFL seasons from 1960-66.

Individual fumbles are not listed at Pro-Football-Reference until the 1945 season; while nfl.com does not include fumbles until 1991 (fumbles lost begin with 1992).

Active players appear in bold, while the 35 players with incomplete data are in italics, as is the field of data that’s incomplete.

Only regular season data is included, and this is updated through Week 12 and the Week 13 Thursday game in the 2012 season.

Scott Kacsmar is a football writer/researcher who has contributed large quantities of data to Pro-Football-Reference.com, including the only standardized database of fourth quarter comebacks and game-winning drives. You can visit his blog for a complete writing archive. Please send any questions or comments to Scott at smk_42@yahoo.com, or you can follow him on Twitter at @CaptainComeback.

By Scott Kacsmar

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