Ranking the Random Fumble Luck of NFL Quarterbacks

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Dec 07, 2012

By Scott Kacsmar

Cold Hard Football Facts’ Comeback King (@CaptainComeback)

How many times have you watched a game and heard a player-turned-analyst remark “I wish a few more of my fumbles would have gone out of bounds”?

Quit your whining, Cris Collinsworth.

Fumble recoveries are a big part of the randomness of football. The odd-shaped ball takes many a strange bounce, and sometimes it works in your favor, while other times it bounces right to the defense.

Last week we looked at the career turnover rates for all quarterbacks with at least 1,500 pass attempts in their career. Fumbles were a big part of it, but we used all fumbles, as you are risking a turnover when you fumble.

The key thing to remember is that it is not a skill to recover fumbles, but it is a skill to not fumble in the first place.

Another reason for not using lost fumbles is that the data only goes back to 1992 from NFL.com, but this week we will look at lost fumbles for quarterbacks to start their careers in the last two decades.

Fumble luck

Still using the minimum requirement of 1,500 passes and only regular season data, all 59 quarterbacks listed have complete career data for lost fumbles. The “DB” is the total number of drop backs and “Fum%” is their fumble rate.

Without further ado, here are the quarterbacks ranked by best-to-worst fumble luck:

Rk	QB	DB	Fum%	Fum	Lost	Lost%
1	Matthew Stafford	1833	0.76	14	4	28.57%
2	Jason Campbell	2550	1.88	48	14	29.17%
3	Gus Frerotte	3509	1.85	65	19	29.23%
4	David Carr	2835	2.50	71	22	30.99%
5	Scott Mitchell	2673	1.87	50	16	32.00%
6	Josh Freeman	1980	1.72	34	11	32.35%
7	Peyton Manning	8312	0.71	59	20	33.90%
8	Chad Pennington	2813	1.46	41	14	34.15%
9	Byron Leftwich	1834	1.91	35	12	34.29%
10	Joe Flacco	2743	1.64	45	16	35.56%
11	Joey Harrington	2804	0.89	25	9	36.00%
12	Matt Schaub	3007	1.26	38	14	36.84%
13	Tim Couch	2004	1.85	37	14	37.84%
14	Mark Brunell	5543	1.37	76	29	38.16%
15	Aaron Rodgers	3018	1.13	34	13	38.24%
16	Daunte Culpepper	4011	2.54	102	39	38.24%
17	Drew Brees	6496	1.11	72	28	38.89%
18	Brian Griese	3227	1.58	51	20	39.22%
19	Jeff Garcia	4324	1.39	60	24	40.00%
20	Jay Cutler	3274	1.68	55	22	40.00%
21	Brad Johnson	4853	1.32	64	26	40.63%
22	Aaron Brooks	3560	1.80	64	26	40.63%
23	Jon Kitna	5078	2.17	110	45	40.91%
24	Jake Plummer	5062	1.48	75	31	41.33%
25	Trent Green	4242	1.41	60	25	41.67%
26	Kerry Collins	6972	1.99	139	58	41.73%
27	Alex Smith	2582	1.74	45	19	42.22%
28	Tony Banks	2829	2.58	73	31	42.47%
29	Tom Brady	6474	1.24	80	34	42.50%
30	Trent Dilfer	3683	2.23	82	35	42.68%
31	Matt Hasselbeck	5699	1.11	63	27	42.86%
32	Matt Cassel	2424	1.73	42	18	42.86%
33	Steve McNair	5467	1.81	99	43	43.43%
34	Mark Sanchez	2022	1.93	39	17	43.59%
35	Brett Favre	11296	1.47	166	73	43.98%
36	Tony Romo	3429	1.46	50	22	44.00%
37	Eli Manning	4766	1.51	72	32	44.44%
38	Carson Palmer	4492	1.14	51	23	45.10%
39	Kurt Warner	4503	2.27	102	46	45.10%
40	Michael Vick	3911	2.20	86	39	45.35%
41	Kordell Stewart	3129	1.41	44	20	45.45%
42	Drew Bledsoe	7569	1.63	123	56	45.53%
43	Dave Brown	2007	1.84	37	17	45.95%
44	Philip Rivers	3875	1.63	63	29	46.03%
45	David Garrard	2840	1.55	44	21	47.73%
46	Matt Ryan	2788	0.82	23	11	47.83%
47	Ben Roethlisberger	4269	1.36	58	28	48.28%
48	Jake Delhomme	3275	1.89	62	30	48.39%
49	Donovan McNabb	6400	1.48	95	46	48.42%
50	Rick Mirer	2484	1.41	35	17	48.57%
51	Charlie Batch	1937	1.24	24	12	50.00%
52	Elvis Grbac	2737	1.17	32	16	50.00%
53	Kyle Boller	1818	2.31	42	21	50.00%
54	Ryan Fitzpatrick	2493	1.48	37	19	51.35%
55	Jeff Blake	3907	1.74	68	35	51.47%
56	Jay Fiedler	2050	1.41	29	15	51.72%
57	Rex Grossman	1735	1.84	32	19	59.38%
58	Marc Bulger	3543	1.19	42	25	59.52%
59	Kyle Orton	2456	1.22	30	18	60.00%

The average lost fumble percentage for this group is 42.50 percent.

That is exactly the career fumbles lost rate for Tom Brady. Guess this is one aspect of football where he has zero luck, good or bad.

It is too hard to even offer a reason for why quarterbacks rank where they do here. There are pocket passers high and low. There are mobile quarterbacks who may put the ball on the ground more (sacks and scrambles) both high and low.

The numbers point directly to what fumble recoveries are: random. The correlation between fumble rate and fumble lost percentage is -0.07, or no real correlation at all.

We know from last week Matthew Stafford has one of the lowest fumble rates ever, but will his luck continue on not losing many of them? His sample size of 14 total fumbles is also very small. One more bad bounce and he would be at 35.7 percent, or moving from No. 1 to No. 10 on the list.

Kyle Orton losing 60 percent of his fumbles? Bad luck would truthfully be the smartest guess.

Adjusted turnover rate with lost fumbles

Finally, here is an updated version of the turnover rate, modified with lost fumbles taking place of total fumbles, and only being calculated for these 59 quarterbacks instead of the 171 from last week.

Rk	QB	DB	Fum	Fum%	INT	INT%	TO	TO%
1	Aaron Rodgers	3018	13	0.43	46	1.82	59	1.95
2	Tom Brady	6474	34	0.53	119	2.06	153	2.36
3	Mark Brunell	5543	29	0.52	108	2.33	137	2.47
4	Jeff Garcia	4325	24	0.55	83	2.26	107	2.47
5	Matt Ryan	2788	11	0.39	59	2.38	70	2.51
6	Donovan McNabb	6400	46	0.72	117	2.18	163	2.55
7	Joe Flacco	2743	16	0.58	54	2.27	70	2.55
8	Jason Campbell	2550	14	0.55	52	2.39	66	2.59
9	David Garrard	2840	21	0.74	54	2.37	75	2.64
10	Matt Schaub	3007	14	0.47	67	2.49	81	2.69
11	Peyton Manning	8312	20	0.24	208	2.70	228	2.74
12	Chad Pennington	2813	14	0.50	64	2.59	78	2.77
13	Matthew Stafford	1833	4	0.22	48	2.87	52	2.84
14	Drew Brees	6496	28	0.43	162	2.71	190	2.92
15	Byron Leftwich	1834	12	0.65	42	2.62	54	2.94
16	Steve McNair	5467	43	0.79	119	2.62	162	2.96
17	Brad Johnson	4853	26	0.54	122	2.82	148	3.05
18	Matt Hasselbeck	5699	27	0.47	147	2.93	174	3.05
19	Kyle Orton	2456	18	0.73	57	2.57	75	3.05
20	Michael Vick	3911	39	1.00	81	2.84	120	3.07
21	Ben Roethlisberger	4269	28	0.66	104	2.87	132	3.09
22	Matt Cassel	2424	18	0.74	57	2.79	75	3.09
23	Philip Rivers	3875	29	0.75	93	2.69	122	3.15
24	Alex Smith	2582	19	0.74	63	2.90	82	3.18
25	Tony Romo	3429	22	0.64	87	2.83	109	3.18
26	Trent Green	4242	25	0.59	114	3.05	139	3.28
27	David Carr	2835	22	0.78	71	3.13	93	3.28
28	Josh Freeman	1980	11	0.56	54	3.17	65	3.28
29	Charlie Batch	1937	12	0.62	52	3.24	64	3.30
30	Aaron Brooks	3560	26	0.73	92	3.10	118	3.31
31	Kordell Stewart	3129	20	0.64	84	3.56	104	3.32
32	Marc Bulger	3543	25	0.71	93	2.93	118	3.33
33	Joey Harrington	2804	9	0.32	85	3.35	94	3.35
34	Carson Palmer	4492	23	0.51	130	3.19	153	3.41
35	Jeff Blake	3907	35	0.90	99	3.05	134	3.43
36	Drew Bledsoe	7569	56	0.74	206	3.07	262	3.46
37	Elvis Grbac	2737	16	0.58	81	3.31	97	3.54
38	Gus Frerotte	3509	19	0.54	106	3.41	125	3.56
39	Eli Manning	4766	32	0.67	140	3.22	172	3.61
40	Daunte Culpepper	4011	39	0.97	106	3.31	145	3.62
41	Brett Favre	11296	73	0.65	336	3.30	409	3.62
42	Jay Cutler	3274	22	0.67	97	3.42	119	3.63
43	Kerry Collins	6972	58	0.83	196	3.13	254	3.64
44	Tony Banks	2829	31	1.10	73	3.10	104	3.68
45	Brian Griese	3227	20	0.62	99	3.54	119	3.69
46	Dave Brown	2007	17	0.85	58	3.55	75	3.74
47	Rick Mirer	2484	17	0.68	76	3.72	93	3.74
48	Jake Plummer	5062	31	0.61	161	3.70	192	3.79
49	Ryan Fitzpatrick	2493	19	0.76	77	3.64	96	3.85
50	Kurt Warner	4503	46	1.02	128	3.14	174	3.86
51	Jay Fiedler	2050	15	0.73	66	3.84	81	3.95
52	Jake Delhomme	3275	30	0.92	101	3.44	131	4.00
53	Mark Sanchez	2022	17	0.84	64	3.59	81	4.01
54	Scott Mitchell	2673	16	0.60	92	3.92	108	4.04
55	Tim Couch	2004	14	0.70	67	3.91	81	4.04
56	Kyle Boller	1818	21	1.16	54	3.55	75	4.13
57	Jon Kitna	5078	45	0.89	165	3.71	210	4.14
58	Trent Dilfer	3683	35	0.95	129	4.07	164	4.45
59	Rex Grossman	1735	19	1.10	60	3.84	79	4.55

Scott Kacsmar is a football writer/researcher who has contributed large quantities of data to Pro-Football-Reference.com, including the only standardized database of fourth quarter comebacks and game-winning drives. You can visit his blog for a complete writing archive. Please send any questions or comments to Scott at smk_42@yahoo.com, or you can follow him on Twitter at @CaptainComeback.

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