NFL Quarterbacks: Career Playoff Drive Stats (2013 Edition)

By Scott Kacsmar
Cold Hard Football Facts’ Comeback King (@CaptainComeback)

 

It is the Friday before the Super Bowl, so just like Groundhog Day, here we go again with this year’s update to the Career Playoff Drive Stats first compiled two years ago on Pro-Football-Reference.com.

Last year we looked at 25 different quarterbacks from 1980-present with at least four playoff starts, and this time we have added Matt Ryan to the mix, making a list with 11 active players and 15 retired. Five active quarterbacks made the playoffs this season, thus changes to their statistics. The total number of drives analyzed is 3,844.

Disclaimer: The stats presented here are in the quarterback's name, but even more than usual this is really about the team's offensive performance as a whole rather than the individual quarterback. There are certain parts, like turnovers, which are mostly about the quarterback, but overall drive stats are very much a team stat. There are of course drives where a quarterback does nothing but hand the ball off every play. The entry "Joe Montana" is another way of saying "1981-90 49ers, 1993-94 Chiefs.”

Also of note is the attempt to include every drive a QB played in during the playoffs; whether or not they started the game did not matter. Steve Young only has his 14 starts and game against the 1987 Vikings when he replaced Montana in the third quarter included. Troy Aikman, John Elway, Mark Brunell, Dave Krieg, and Randall Cunningham also participated in at least one game they did not start.  Kneel-down drives at the end of either half are excluded, as are any kneel-down stats.

 

Overall drive stats

The first table includes the most general of drive stats, while also noting the number of games played (GP). Yds/Dr represents the net yards per drive (penalty yardage included). The turnovers are all the interceptions and lost fumbles by the quarterback, and that total is divided by the number of drives to get TOs/Dr. The LOS/Dr is the average starting field position. Table is sorted by descending Pts/Dr. Active players are in bold, and the best value in each category is also in bold.

Overall Quarterback Postseason Drive Stats
QB	GP	Drives	Yds/Dr	Pts/Dr	TD/Dr	Punts/Dr	TOs/Dr	LOS/Dr
Aaron Rodgers	8	85	36.47	2.51	0.318	0.388	0.094	27.41
Drew Brees	9	106	36.10	2.49	0.302	0.321	0.066	27.39
Steve Young	15	141	34.63	2.46	0.312	0.333	0.128	31.44
Troy Aikman	16	164	32.81	2.44	0.293	0.329	0.116	33.12
Kurt Warner	13	144	33.65	2.35	0.292	0.354	0.118	32.69
Ben Roethlisberger	14	154	30.82	2.23	0.266	0.364	0.123	31.82
Joe Montana	23	248	32.41	2.15	0.266	0.395	0.089	31.62
John Elway	22	239	32.03	2.13	0.255	0.385	0.109	31.79
Jim Kelly	17	195	30.89	2.08	0.236	0.328	0.159	33.18
Tom Brady	24	261	31.83	2.07	0.230	0.406	0.096	31.02
Peyton Manning	20	213	34.92	2.06	0.221	0.343	0.108	27.21
Brett Favre	24	274	29.97	2.03	0.237	0.358	0.128	33.22
Matt Hasselbeck	11	133	28.22	1.95	0.218	0.451	0.068	32.08
Warren Moon	10	107	32.37	1.87	0.206	0.308	0.168	28.01
Eli Manning	11	119	29.88	1.80	0.193	0.445	0.076	30.12
Joe Flacco	12	141	26.56	1.79	0.206	0.475	0.078	32.19
Dan Marino	18	205	28.64	1.79	0.215	0.380	0.141	30.56
Jake Delhomme	8	93	29.61	1.78	0.204	0.452	0.129	30.35
Matt Ryan	5	53	30.72	1.74	0.208	0.358	0.1887	25.72
Philip Rivers	7	77	29.69	1.71	0.208	0.455	0.130	31.19
Donovan McNabb	16	187	27.48	1.68	0.182	0.401	0.134	31.99
Mark Brunell	11	113	26.42	1.56	0.168	0.398	0.124	31.16
Steve McNair	10	117	26.97	1.54	0.162	0.410	0.111	32.34
Tony Romo	4	45	28.09	1.49	0.156	0.400	0.089	28.64
Randall Cunningham	10	125	25.64	1.46	0.152	0.432	0.112	32.09
Dave Krieg	11	105	23.36	1.31	0.152	0.543	0.095	31.57
AVERAGE	13.4	147.8	30.62	1.98	0.230	0.388	0.114	31.15

Two games later and Aaron Rodgers has again fallen – it is only eight games after all – but still maintains the lead in most of the key categories. Drew Brees remains close behind, but you cannot hurt or help your playoff stats when you do not make the tournament. Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning concur.

Tom Brady has just edged out Peyton Manning in points per drive, mostly thanks to the Houston Texans this season. The Patriots scored 41 points on 12 drives against Houston, but only 13 points 12 drives (1.08 Pts/Dr) against Baltimore. The Broncos scored 21 points on their 13 drives against Baltimore (1.62 Pts/Dr).

As for new entry Matt Ryan, everyone knew about his 0-3 playoff record coming into this season, and now everyone will remember the 17-point lead the Falcons blew to San Francisco in the NFC Championship. As for Ryan leading this offense, here is where he ranks among these 26 quarterbacks:

Matt Ryan Drive Stat Ranks
Stat	Value	Rank
Yards per drive	30.72	13
Points per drive	1.74	19
Touchdowns per drive	0.208	16
Punts per drive	0.358	9
Turnovers per drive	0.189	26

Not very good, and the standout number is having the most turnovers per drive of any quarterback. Ryan has turned it over on 10 of Atlanta’s 53 drives in the postseason. It is only five games and we saw definite improvement from Ryan this season, so he still has plenty of time to ascend the list and improve on that 1-4 record in the playoffs.

Finally there’s the guy still playing this season, Joe Flacco. We noted last year that through his first nine playoff games, Flacco had the best field position (34.47), but was just 20^th in Pts/Dr, last in Yds/Dr, and only Dave Krieg led his offense to a higher rate of punts.

Well that has certainly changed in these playoffs. Not only does Flacco have eight touchdowns and no interceptions, but he has the drive stats to back it up.

Joe Flacco Drive Stats
Stat	2008-11 (5-4)	2012 (3-0)
Yards per drive	23.20	36.00
Points per drive	1.63	2.24
Touchdowns per drive	0.173	0.297
Punts per drive	0.462	0.514
Turnovers per drive	0.096	0.027
Average starting field position	34.47	25.78

Everything but punts look much better, and maybe most impressively is the huge drop in field position from what Flacco is used to in the postseason. That is nearly a nine-yard difference.

Flacco and the Ravens are no longer the most frequent offense to go three and out, dropping from 31.7 percent last year to 28.4 percent. In the three playoff games this season the Ravens have gone three and out on seven out of 37 drives (18.9 percent).

That is roughly the same percentage Rodgers is now at for his career (18.8 percent), which is a good jump from the best percentage of 12.5 a year ago. The Packers went three and out on five straight drives against the Vikings in the Wild Card game after taking a 24-3 lead.

Highest rate of three-and-out drives
Rank	QB	GP	Drives	3OUT%
1	Dave Krieg	11	105	30.5
2	Joe Flacco	12	141	28.4
3	Matt Hasselbeck	11	133	27.1
4	Mark Brunell	11	113	25.7
5	Matt Ryan	5	53	24.5
6	Tom Brady	24	261	23.8
7	Jake Delhomme	8	93	23.7
8	Eli Manning	11	119	22.7
9	Dan Marino	18	205	22.4
10	Steve McNair	10	117	22.2
11	Donovan McNabb	16	187	21.9
12	Peyton Manning	20	213	21.6
13	Joe Montana	23	248	21.4
14	Philip Rivers	7	77	20.8
15	Randall Cunningham	10	125	20.8
16	Jim Kelly	17	195	20.0
17	Steve Young	15	141	19.9
18	Brett Favre	24	274	19.0
19	Drew Brees	9	106	18.9
20	Aaron Rodgers	8	85	18.8
21	Warren Moon	10	107	18.7
22	Kurt Warner	13	144	18.1
23	John Elway	22	239	17.6
24	Ben Roethlisberger	14	154	17.5
25	Tony Romo	4	45	15.6
26	Troy Aikman	16	164	15.2

You can see Matt Ryan cracks the top five with the Falcons. The lower the better here.

 

Average starting field position

Here is a breakdown of the average starting field position (LOS/Dr). You can see the number of drives where the offense started at exactly the 20, followed by the percentage of drives that started at the 20 or worse (<20%). Then it’s starting at your own 21-35 and 36-49, finally followed by drives started in opponent territory (Opp. 50+). The Worst GP is the worst average starting field position the quarterback had in any one game. 

QB	Drives	LOS/Dr	20 (exact)	%	<20%	21-35	%	36-49	%	Opp. 50+	%	Worst GP
Matt Ryan	53	25.72	14	26.42	45.28	18	33.96	7	13.21	4	7.55	21.73
Peyton Manning	213	27.21	34	15.96	39.44	84	39.44	30	14.08	15	7.04	15.67
Drew Brees	106	27.39	12	11.32	41.51	39	36.79	14	13.21	9	8.49	21.64
Aaron Rodgers	85	27.41	20	23.53	42.35	28	32.94	14	16.47	7	8.24	17.56
Warren Moon	107	28.01	23	21.50	46.73	35	32.71	6	5.61	16	14.95	20.67
Tony Romo	45	28.64	4	8.89	40.00	12	26.67	10	22.22	5	11.11	23.50
Eli Manning	119	30.12	16	13.45	34.45	44	36.97	17	14.29	17	14.29	24.09
Jake Delhomme	93	30.35	9	9.68	31.18	35	37.63	20	21.51	9	9.68	21.54
Dan Marino	205	30.56	24	11.71	29.76	86	41.95	32	15.61	26	12.68	19.00
Tom Brady	261	31.02	26	9.96	31.03	96	36.78	49	18.77	35	13.41	16.11
Mark Brunell	113	31.16	8	7.08	30.97	45	39.82	19	16.81	14	12.39	18.00
Philip Rivers	77	31.19	6	7.79	24.68	33	42.86	12	15.58	13	16.88	19.00
Steve Young	141	31.44	19	13.48	36.17	43	30.50	18	12.77	29	20.57	16.70
Dave Krieg	105	31.57	10	9.52	31.43	37	35.24	19	18.10	16	15.24	22.40
Joe Montana	248	31.62	36	14.52	34.27	89	35.89	36	14.52	38	15.32	20.20
John Elway	239	31.79	35	14.64	34.31	82	34.31	36	15.06	39	16.32	19.25
Ben Roethlisberger	154	31.82	23	14.94	30.52	56	36.36	30	19.48	21	13.64	22.78
Donovan McNabb	187	31.99	14	7.49	27.27	68	36.36	40	21.39	28	14.97	20.00
Matt Hasselbeck	133	32.08	9	6.77	21.05	65	48.87	25	18.80	15	11.28	22.10
Randall Cunningham	125	32.09	24	19.20	32.80	44	35.20	25	20.00	15	12.00	22.38
Joe Flacco	141	32.19	24	17.02	38.30	40	28.37	21	14.89	26	18.44	20.00
Steve McNair	117	32.34	8	6.84	23.93	49	41.88	25	21.37	15	12.82	26.33
Kurt Warner	144	32.69	19	13.19	30.56	49	34.03	29	20.14	22	15.28	22.89
Troy Aikman	164	33.12	25	15.24	31.10	57	34.76	30	18.29	26	15.85	23.10
Jim Kelly	195	33.18	26	13.33	28.21	70	35.90	37	18.97	33	16.92	21.50
Brett Favre	274	33.22	23	8.39	28.83	102	37.23	46	16.79	47	17.15	24.11
AVERAGE	147.8	31.15	18.9	12.77	32.54	54.1	36.58	24.9	16.83	20.8	14.05	20.86

Ryan has often been compared to Peyton Manning, and now here’s something they have in common: the worst field position in the playoffs.

Virtually out of the control of any quarterback, this is another one of those hidden factors into why a certain quarterback may have a losing record in the playoffs. Active quarterbacks will start to look even worse here just because of the kickoff rule change in 2011, but Manning’s field position numbers in particular have always been bad.

On average these quarterbacks started about 14 percent of their drives in opponent territory, but that number is more like 7-7.5 percent for Ryan and Manning.

Flacco no longer has the best field position as Lord Favre (33.22) now takes that crown. This year’s AFC Championship was the worst starting field position (20.00) Flacco has had in his dozen playoff games.

 

Touchdown drives

The next table looks at the touchdown drives the quarterbacks led. It is sorted by the Avg. Yds, or average length of the drive. ScoMg is the average scoring margin when the touchdown drive started. Then the distances are broken down by 70+, 80+ and 90+ for long drives, then <50 and <20 are in the opponent’s territory and red zone.

QB	TD	Avg. Yds	ScoMg	70+	%	80+	%	90+	%	<50	%	<20	%
Tony Romo	7	72.7	2.86	5	71.4	4	57.1	2	28.6	1	14.3	1	14.3
Peyton Manning	47	71.4	1.47	32	68.1	18	38.3	2	4.3	3	6.4	1	2.1
Aaron Rodgers	27	70.7	-2.22	16	59.3	13	48.1	1	3.7	1	3.7	0	0.0
Philip Rivers	16	69.8	-4.13	11	68.8	2	12.5	0	0.0	3	18.8	0	0.0
Warren Moon	22	68.5	-1.55	14	63.6	10	45.5	1	4.5	5	22.7	1	4.5
Drew Brees	32	68.4	-2.56	20	62.5	12	37.5	2	6.3	6	18.8	1	3.1
Eli Manning	23	67.3	0.13	12	52.2	8	34.8	1	4.3	3	13.0	1	4.3
Jake Delhomme	19	66.2	-2.37	9	47.4	5	26.3	2	10.5	2	10.5	1	5.3
Matt Ryan	11	65.9	-1.27	6	54.5	4	36.4	0	0.0	2	18.2	0	0.0
Steve McNair	19	64.8	-3.26	7	36.8	1	5.3	0	0.0	1	5.3	0	0.0
Brett Favre	65	64.6	-1.22	36	55.4	16	24.6	3	4.6	12	18.5	4	6.2
John Elway	61	63.7	0.08	28	45.9	21	34.4	4	6.6	14	23.0	3	4.9
Tom Brady	60	63.1	1.02	25	41.7	10	16.7	2	3.3	11	18.3	1	1.7
Dan Marino	44	63.0	-4.41	20	45.5	9	20.5	1	2.3	10	22.7	2	4.5
Mark Brunell	19	61.7	-1.53	9	47.4	3	15.8	1	5.3	3	15.8	2	10.5
Kurt Warner	42	61.7	0.95	19	45.2	8	19.0	0	0.0	9	21.4	2	4.8
Dave Krieg	16	61.2	-4.31	5	31.3	3	18.8	2	12.5	3	18.8	1	6.3
Joe Montana	66	60.8	4.15	34	51.5	16	24.2	2	3.0	18	27.3	6	9.1
Donovan McNabb	34	60.2	-2.29	15	44.1	7	20.6	2	5.9	9	26.5	3	8.8
Randall Cunningham	19	60.1	-6.47	10	52.6	5	26.3	0	0.0	5	26.3	2	10.5
Ben Roethlisberger	41	59.6	-2.59	12	29.3	5	12.2	0	0.0	9	22.0	2	4.9
Steve Young	44	58.8	3.84	17	38.6	9	20.5	3	6.8	17	38.6	1	2.3
Jim Kelly	46	58.4	1.48	13	28.3	5	10.9	0	0.0	12	26.1	2	4.3
Troy Aikman	48	58.3	3.10	22	45.8	10	20.8	3	6.3	16	33.3	6	12.5
Matt Hasselbeck	29	57.0	-3.34	11	37.9	2	6.9	0	0.0	8	27.6	2	6.9
Joe Flacco	29	57.0	0.76	13	44.8	8	27.6	2	6.9	10	34.5	5	17.2

Last year we were hard on Flacco here with his average touchdown drive being just 49.5 yards. But this strong playoff run has pushed him up to 57.0, albeit still tied with Matt Hasselbeck for the lowest.

Flacco’s 29 touchdown drives have gone for 1,652 yards compared to Hasselbeck’s 29 touchdown drives going for 1,653 yards. Interesting.

Flacco had seven touchdown drives of 70+ yards in his first nine playoff games. He has had six such scoring drives in the three games this postseason alone, including two that have gone over 90 yards. It’s been a much different Baltimore offense this postseason.

Peyton Manning added on to his collection of long touchdown drives with three more against Baltimore (74, 86 and 88 yards). His 18 touchdown drives of 80+ yards trail only John Elway (21) for the most.

Ryan checks in with the ninth-highest average distance for his touchdown drives (65.9 yards). All four of his 80+ touchdown drives came against Seattle and San Francisco this season.

 

Average scoring margin

This table looks at the drives related to the scoreboard when they started. The ScoMg is again the average score margin at the start of the drive. Then it’s broken down by the number of drives when the team was behind, tied or ahead. 3SD- is the number of drives that started with the team trailing by at least three scores (17+ points since 1994 or 15+ prior). The 3SL+ is the number of drives that started with the team holding at least a three score lead.

QB	Drives	ScoMg	Behind	%	Tied	%	Ahead	%	3SD-	%	3SL+	%
Joe Montana	248	2.64	93	37.50	38	15.32	117	47.18	7	2.82	29	11.69
Kurt Warner	144	2.50	47	32.64	24	16.67	73	50.69	7	4.86	16	11.11
Aaron Rodgers	85	2.24	29	34.12	14	16.47	42	49.41	7	8.24	9	10.59
Jim Kelly	195	1.73	63	32.31	48	24.62	84	43.08	16	8.21	25	12.82
Troy Aikman	164	1.59	59	35.98	30	18.29	75	45.73	19	11.59	22	13.41
Tom Brady	261	1.48	74	28.35	71	27.20	116	44.44	11	4.21	15	5.75
Joe Flacco	141	1.12	55	39.01	32	22.70	54	38.30	4	2.84	10	7.09
Steve Young	141	0.66	61	43.26	23	16.31	57	40.43	16	11.35	19	13.48
Brett Favre	274	0.18	102	37.23	60	21.90	112	40.88	23	8.39	15	5.47
Ben Roethlisberger	154	0.14	56	36.36	31	20.13	67	43.51	6	3.90	2	1.30
Peyton Manning	213	0.05	79	37.09	49	23.00	85	39.91	12	5.63	13	6.10
John Elway	239	-0.11	77	32.22	67	28.03	95	39.75	22	9.21	16	6.69
Eli Manning	119	-0.57	51	42.86	35	29.41	33	27.73	3	2.52	2	1.68
Steve McNair	117	-0.88	52	44.44	32	27.35	33	28.21	1	0.85	1	0.85
Jake Delhomme	93	-0.96	32	34.41	22	23.66	39	41.94	14	15.05	4	4.30
Warren Moon	107	-1.13	42	39.25	22	20.56	43	40.19	7	6.54	3	2.80
Tony Romo	45	-1.36	22	48.89	10	22.22	13	28.89	4	8.89	6	13.33
Donovan McNabb	187	-1.56	89	47.59	32	17.11	66	35.29	15	8.02	4	2.14
Drew Brees	106	-1.59	54	50.94	28	26.42	24	22.64	4	3.77	5	4.72
Matt Hasselbeck	133	-1.77	61	45.86	30	22.56	42	31.58	14	10.53	6	4.51
Philip Rivers	77	-1.77	39	50.65	20	25.97	18	23.38	3	3.90	0	0.00
Mark Brunell	113	-3.29	62	54.87	21	18.58	30	26.55	11	9.73	2	1.77
Matt Ryan	53	-3.74	27	50.94	9	16.98	17	32.08	7	13.21	0	0.00
Dan Marino	205	-5.62	128	62.44	32	15.61	45	21.95	48	23.41	12	5.85
Dave Krieg	105	-5.62	68	64.76	18	17.14	19	18.10	17	16.19	1	0.95
Randall Cunningham	125	-6.58	88	70.40	14	11.20	23	18.40	14	11.20	2	1.60

Quite the contrast for the two quarterbacks from the 2008 draft. Flacco (+1.12) is one of seven quarterbacks to average a lead of at least one point per drive while Ryan (-3.74) is near the bottom in scoring margin, and has played from behind more often than not.

Brady (28.35 percent) still retains the lowest percentage of drives for playing from behind, and Kurt Warner (50.69 percent) is now the only quarterback to play with the lead more than half the time.

 

Drive stats to consider for Super Bowl XLVII

We still have one more game to play this season, and Super Bowl XLVII could be another classic.

Colin Kaepernick is only making his third playoff start (and 10th start of any kind in the NFL) for the San Francisco 49ers, so we may have to wait until next year to add him to the list at the earliest.

He has led San Francisco’s offense to a blistering 3.48 points per drive in the playoffs against Green Bay and Atlanta. That’s even with David Akers missing a 38-yard field goal, Michael Crabtree fumbling at the 1-yard line, and a one-play drive before halftime in the NFC Championship factored in.

Already looked at a lot of the Ravens and Flacco, who has just one turnover on 37 drives this postseason, and that was a fumbled snap in Denver. Flacco has been compared a lot to Eli Manning this season, and they have a lot of similar playoff drive stats, including two of the lowest turnover rates per drive (0.076 for Manning; 0.078 for Flacco).

The Ravens are playing at a high level on offense under coordinator Jim Caldwell the last four games Flacco has started and finished, and there’s no reason not to expect that to continue this week.

Super Bowl XLVII prediction: Ravens 23, 49ers 20 (Joe Flacco wins MVP).

 

Scott Kacsmar is a football writer/researcher who has contributed large quantities of data to Pro-Football-Reference.com, including the only standardized database of fourth quarter comebacks and game-winning drives. You can visit his blog for a complete writing archive. Please send any questions or comments to Scott at smk_42@yahoo.com, or you can follow him on Twitter at @CaptainComeback.

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