Labor talks? Boorrrr-ing. Let's talk stats!

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Mar 03, 2011



Well, the NFL labor situation naturally remains the No. 1 topic in the football world. But there are only so many ways you can formulate opinions about what's going on behind the scenes before it gets silly.
 
Plus, you know what we think of a man and his opinions. It's like a man in his Speedo. Neither is ever flattering. Plus, we have no control over the situation ... and neither do any of the other "pundits" tossing out their two cents worth. And with inflation these days ... well, you know what two cents is worth.
 
But there is one thing we can control: providing you the best, most intelligent, most well written and most statistically valid football analysis in the history of mankind. And to that end, we have a LOT of great stuff in the works for the 2011 season – assuming all parties come to their senses and it unfold as scheduled.
 
To that end, we're developing some great new stats and an awesome CHFF "INSIDER" product that will provide whole new and automated ways to analyze the data and break down every NFL team.
 
For example, here's a little sneak preview of what will be the backbone of our weekly Quality Stats Power Rankings – each team sized up each week across the board based upon overall ranking in each of our Quality Stats.
 
This is just a view of it here. The actual product will be sortable by each individual indicator will tell you how far each team climbed or dropped each week.
 
What's most notable here is that Super Bowl champion Green Bay was No. 1 across the board in all these indicators. Super Bowl runner-up Pittsburgh was No. 2. If only we had this data compiled before hand, we might have gone with the Packers to win the Super Bowl – instead, we're still kicking ourselves.
 
Either way, the game turned on one play. And no indicators ever – not even our nearly flawless Quality Stats – will be able to account for the impact of flawed humans and human error.
 
You'll notice a few new indicators on this list. We explain them real quick across the board below. Also, keep in mind that charts on the new product will LOOK MUCH BETTER. They'll be much easier to read and sortable by every indicator. This is just kind of a sneak preview and the final product will not look exactly this way. But just trying to give you an idea, kids.
 
Final 2010 Overall Quality Stats Rankings
  Team SCOR BEND RPYPA DRPYPA QBR DQBR OPR DPR PRD OHI DHI REL Overall
1 GB 14.77 20.61 7.12 5.42 92.54 75.64 98.93 67.23 31.7 16.7 12.7 13.04 4.85
2 PIT 14.73 19.09 6.9 5.35 91.65 72.28 95.25 73.78 21.47 15.3 3.7 12.16 5.15
3 NE 11.24 18.73 7.23 6.39 101.91 81.72 109.76 81.23 28.53 5.0 19.3 18.35 6.23
4 SD 14.35 13.46 7.76 5.3 92.29 81.13 101.85 76.14 25.71 14.0 3.7 8.01 6.62
5 BAL 14.47 18.87 6.28 5.76 89.12 80.59 93.64 76.34 17.3 20.7 17.3 6.76 9.0
6 PHI 14.19 13.87 6.39 6.04 91.48 83.53 92.06 80.61 11.45 13.0 11.7 5.74 10.31
7 ATL 13.18 18.47 5.95 6.13 91.27 84.37 90.8 82.19 8.61 10.3 20.7 9.54 10.69
8 NO 15.52 15.96 6.46 5.89 90.33 82.87 90.81 83.16 7.65 8.7 15.0 3.67 11.23
9t KC 15.29 16.21 5.85 5.68 93.14 81.21 90.06 78.08 11.98 12.0 17.0 0.22 11.46
9t NYJ 15.3 15.34 5.86 5.62 87.78 75.99 76.53 77.05 -0.52 10.7 8.3 5.35 11.46
11 NYG 15.44 14.33 7 5.72 86.49 76.14 85.28 80.53 4.75 12.0 6.3 1.99 11.62
12 CHI 13.87 17.58 5.79 5.83 80.75 78.14 79.49 74.39 5.1 27.3 9.3 2.79 12.62
13 TB 15.72 16.74 6.41 5.88 91.97 86.27 96.25 77.57 18.68 6.0 27.7 -0.24 12.85
14 IND 14 14.09 6.62 6.08 92.58 88.8 91.79 91.7 0.09 11.0 25.7 4.54 14.31
15 TEN 13.58 17.35 6.2 6.06 84.75 86.65 82.59 86.38 -3.8 16.7 18.3 2.21 15.08
16 OAK 13.84 13.92 5.92 5.85 87.08 86.27 77.4 85.56 -8.15 18.0 11.0 1.15 15.15
17 DET 14.98 14.9 5.77 6.21 84.57 87.48 82 89.17 -7.16 11.7 16.7 0.47 18.15
18 DAL 14.79 12.91 6.64 6.76 88.36 90.82 90.39 92.75 -2.36 13.3 17.3 -3.09 18.23
19 STL 16.77 16.43 5.24 5.83 81.88 81.93 76.46 80.22 -3.76 22.7 11.0 -5.12 18.23
20 HOU 15.86 14.12 6.84 7.42 94.02 96.66 92.02 100.49 -8.48 6.3 20.3 -1.88 18.38
21 MIA 18.94 14.86 5.91 6.19 80.01 86.05 75.5 85.03 -9.53 20.3 8.7 -2.29 20.0
22 CIN 16.43 13.45 6.1 6.41 81.71 88.58 82.37 85.16 -2.79 19.7 19.7 -3.33 21.69
23 SF 16.44 15.16 6.17 6.31 82.03 88.3 79.36 89.96 -10.6 24.0 12.7 -3.53 21.92
24 CLE 17.11 16.87 5.83 6.59 79.47 87.48 74.98 84.83 -9.85 21.7 18.0 -3.57 22.23
25 WAS 17.79 16.52 6.01 6.9 77.74 89.89 77.99 89.62 -11.6 23.3 21.3 -5.31 23.46
26 MIN 17.93 14.37 5.74 6.02 78.28 85.6 67.65 86.39 -18.7 20.7 18.7 -4.28 23.85
27 JAX 15.45 14.2 6.06 7.53 85.94 97.91 83.43 98.53 -15.1 16.0 28.7 -6.21 23.92
28 DEN 16.23 13.28 6.51 7.2 83.62 96.55 86.75 93.02 -6.27 22.0 26.0 -10.3 24.38
29 ARI 14.88 13.77 4.76 6.46 64.47 87.79 60.49 83.55 -23.1 23.7 15.7 -13.1 24.77
29 SEA 15.36 14.49 5.77 6.42 77.82 89.59 72.04 89.69 -17.7 23.7 21.3 -8.4 24.77
31 CAR 21.1 13.17 4.29 6.09 68.07 84.88 56.96 80.96 -24.0 24.3 14.7 -16.8 26.0
32 BUF 17.22 13.61 5.71 6.14 76.73 91.2 75.16 92.58 -17.4 17.3 29.3 -8.8 27.23
 
SCOR and BEND – our existing Scoreability and Bendability Indices. You already know about these. By the way, teams that won the Scoreability-Bendability battle of efficiency in 2010 won nearly 85 percent of the time. So these indicators have an incredible correlation to success.
 
RPYPA – Real Passing Yards Per Attempt. Our existing Passing Yards Per Attempt indicator. We plan to use the word "real" to differentiate it from the standard gross passing yards per attempt number used to measure individual quarterbacks. Remember, our PYPA indicator measures the impact of sacks to provide a more accurate team-wide measure of success.
 
DRPYPA – Defensive Real Passing Yards Per Attempt. Same as above, but measuring how each defense stops the pass, including the impact of sacks.
 
QBR – Quarterbacking Rating. This will be a new indicator for us. Remember, the existing indicator commonly used is "passer rating." It is NOT quarterback rating, even though the term QB rating is often incorrectly used as a synonym. No, passer rating measures ONLY a quarterback's passing ability. Our brand new and unique  Quarterback Rating will also measure the impact of sacks, rushing attempt and fumbles. It will use the same math as passer rating to spit a number that's currently understood by football fans. But it will measure the overall performance of quarterback, based upon every single time he handles the ball, and not just when he passes.
 
DQBR – Defensive Quarterback Rating. Same as above, only applied to defense.
 
OPR – Offensive Passer Rating. The existing (and very, very useful) passer rating indicator for each offense. We already supply this number as part of our existing Passer Rating Differential indicator, but it will break it out during the 2011 season and beyond.
 
DPR – Defensive Passer Rating. Our existing Defensive Passer Rating Quality Stat. You already know, based upon its many decades of success, that Defensive Passer Rating is one of the single most important indicators in football, and maybe in all of sports.
 
PRDPasser Rating Differential, and existing Quality Stat. Once again, you already know that this indicator has an incredible correlation to success on the football field. You and we are not alone in this knowledge, it turns out. As we pointed out this week, Super Bowl-winning defensive coordinator Dom Capers is a big fan of Passer Rating Differential.
 
OHI and DHI – Our existing Offensive and Defensive Hog Indices.
 
REL – The Relativity Index, a Quality Stat we've dabbled with in the past and will reintroduce and chronicle each week during the 2011 season and beyond. It measures how each team performs relative to the average points scored and points allowed of all its opponents. Green Bay, for example, was +13.04 points better than the average scoring rate of its opponents. It's a pretty impressive number when you consider that they lost six games.
 
Overall – The overall average of each team, based upon numerical ranking in each of these indicators. Green Bay, for example, posted an average rank of 4.85 in each of these 12 indicators.
 
This is all still a work in progress, folks. We'll be fine tuning here in the off-season. We'll be breaking out some individual components of each Quality Stat. And we'll be providing some incredible new ways to measure the impact of each Quality Stat.
 
We think you'll be very, very impressed with the new product. And it will give you information about the importance of various stats that you WILL NOT find anywhere else.

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