Final 2010 Big Play Index

The Big Play Index measures how each team performs when it comes time to make those few critical Big Plays that so often prove the difference between victory and defeat in the NFL. The nine "Big Plays" we track are:

 

According to the old saying, the beer foam rises to the top ... or something like that. And that pigskin proverb  certainly holds true in pro football.

 

The Patriots and Steelers are the top two teams in the NFL over the past decade, the top two seeds in the AFC playoffs (again) this year, the top teams in the eyes of the wise guys to win the Super Bowl, the top two teams across the board in our year-end Quality Stats (that annual comparison will be out soon) and, lo and behold, the top two teams here at the end of the year in the Big Play Index.

 

Both marquee franchises were adept at producing, and preventing, Big Plays across the board. Both are among the league leaders at producing Big Plays (New England No. 3, Pittsburgh No. 5) and at preventing Big Plays (New England No. 1, Pittsburgh No. 2).

 

The Eagles, meanwhile, tumbled quickly from the lofty nest of Big Play greatness they displayed in their Week 15 win over the Giants. Philadelphia is still among the best in football at producing Big Plays with 68; only the surprising Raiders produced more (69). But Philly, after stumbling across the finish line with two inept losses, stands at No. 5 overall in the indicator at +17, well below the elite Big Play teams of New England and Pittsburgh.

 

Oh, and that explosive Big Play fourth-quarter against the Giants?

 

In retrospect, it was a perfect storm fueled by Philly's incredible ability to produce Big Plays and New York's incredible ability to get burned by them. The Giants end the year easily the worst team in football at preventing Big Plays. They were burned for 71 of them over the course of the year, easily the most in football.

 

The Big Play Index once again proves to have a high correlation to success. New England was the No. 1 team in football during the 2010 regular season, and easily the No. 1 team on the Big Play Index. Nine of 12 playoff teams finished in the top 12 on the indicator.

 

The beauty of the Big Play Index is that it confirms what the eyes tell us: NFL football is a war of attrition between two generally equal teams in which one or two Big Plays each game prove the difference between victory and defeat.

 

	Team	For	Against	Difference
1	New England	64	23	+41
2	Pittsburgh	58	30	+28
3	N.Y. Jets	56	33	+23
4	Oakland	69	48	+21
5	Philadelphia	68	51	+17
6t	Atlanta	51	38	+13
6t	Tampa Bay	56	43	+13
8	Baltimore	45	33	+12
9	Green Bay	53	42	+11
10	Chicago	58	50	+8
11	Tennessee	54	48	+6
12	Kansas City	41	36	+5
13	Detroit	52	49	+3
14	Houston	44	42	+2
15	St. Louis	43	42	+1
16t	Cleveland	46	48	-2
16t	Seattle	55	57	-2
18	Dallas	56	60	-4
19	Washington	55	60	-5
20t	San Diego	51	57	-6
20t	San Francisco	45	51	-6
22t	Arizona	54	64	-10
22t	N.Y. Giants	61	71	-10
24	New Orleans	46	57	-11
25	Buffalo	42	54	-12
26t	Indianapolis	40	53	-13
26t	Carolina	49	62	-13
26t	Minnesota	40	53	-13
29	Cincinnati	43	61	-18
30	Miami	35	54	-19
31	Denver	39	64	-25
32	Jacksonville	36	65	-29

By Kerry Byrne