David Garrard: The Best 4th-Round QB Since Rich Gannon

Cold, Hard Football Facts for May 17, 2013



By Scott Kacsmar
Cold Hard Football Facts’ Comeback King (@CaptainComeback)

The last time David Garrard was on a NFL field in a real game, he threw a back-breaking interception in overtime against the Washington Redskins.

It was a Week 16 game, one day after Christmas … in the 2010 season.

That’s how far back you have to go to find Garrard’s last play. He has battled numerous injuries since then.

The latest injury involving his knee appears to be the end of the road for his NFL career.

Garrard, 35, had a real shot to win the starting job with the New York Jets this year, but his body failed him one last time.

Unlike last week when we set up Ronde Barber’s Hall of Fame case, no such discussion is necessary for Garrard. That does not mean he did not have a solid career.

In fact, Garrard’s nine-season career with Jacksonville was better than most people will give him credit for.

It’s good enough to declare Garrard the best quarterback drafted in the fourth round since Rich Gannon was selected in 1987.

Let’s examine his resume.

 

Protecting the Football

If you are only as good as your last throw, then Garrard is screwed, because that pick under pressure deep in his own end in overtime against Washington was terrible.

Washington handed the ball off twice to set up the game-winning field goal, putting a serious dent in Jacksonville’s playoff hopes that season.

But the play was uncharacteristic of Garrard’s career, which was actually quite excellent at protecting the football.

We have looked at career turnover rates, which includes interceptions and fumbles over all drop backs (DB), for quarterbacks before. Garrard retires with the 11th-best turnover rate (3.45 percent) in NFL history:

Top 15 Career Turnover Rates in NFL History (Regular Season)

Rk

QB

Pass

Sck

Run

DB

Fum

Fum%

INT

INT%

TO

TO%

1

Aaron Rodgers

2665

211

303

3179

36

1.13

46

1.73

82

2.58

2

Matt Ryan

2637

113

202

2952

23

0.78

60

2.28

83

2.81

3

Tom Brady

5958

303

402

6663

80

1.20

123

2.06

203

3.05

4

Joe Montana

5391

313

457

6161

53

0.86

139

2.58

192

3.12

5

Peyton Manning

7793

252

369

8414

59

0.70

209

2.68

268

3.19

6

Neil O'Donnell

3229

259

215

3703

51

1.38

68

2.11

119

3.21

7

Jeff Garcia

3676

181

468

4325

60

1.39

83

2.26

143

3.31

8

Donovan McNabb

5374

410

616

6400

95

1.48

117

2.18

212

3.31

9

Mark Brunell

4640

390

513

5543

76

1.37

108

2.33

184

3.32

10

Steve Young

4149

358

722

5229

68

1.30

107

2.58

175

3.35

11

David Garrard

2281

179

380

2840

44

1.55

54

2.37

98

3.45

12

Matt Schaub

2823

151

178

3152

39

1.24

70

2.48

109

3.46

13

Matthew Stafford

1863

93

81

2037

17

0.83

54

2.90

71

3.49

14

Kyle Orton

2214

132

110

2456

30

1.22

57

2.57

87

3.54

15

Drew Brees

6149

234

298

6681

72

1.08

165

2.68

237

3.55

Garrard mostly achieved this lofty ranking by not throwing interceptions. His 2.37 interception percentage is the ninth best in NFL history.

Some quarterbacks, like Jason Campbell, can achieve a low interception rate by playing too conservatively, but Garrard was not really like that. He would take chances, but it was his mobility that allowed him to avoid a lot of poor throwing situations.

In 2007 Garrard threw just three interceptions on 325 attempts as he finished with a career-high 102.2 passer rating. His 0.92 interception percentage was the third lowest in NFL history (minimum 300 pass attempts).

These are the only 24 seasons to ever finish with an interception rate under 1.50 percent:

Lowest  Interception % in NFL History (Min. 300 Passes)

Rank

Quarterback

Season

Team

Passes

INT

INT %

1

Tom Brady

2010

NE

492

4

0.81

2

Steve DeBerg

1990

KC

444

4

0.90

3

David Garrard

2007

JAX

325

3

0.92

4

Alex Smith

2011

SF

445

5

1.12

5

Steve Bartkowski

1983

ATL

432

5

1.16

6

Neil O'Donnell

1998

CIN

343

4

1.17

7

Jason Campbell

2008

WAS

506

6

1.19

8

Brian Griese

2000

DEN

336

4

1.19

9

Aaron Rodgers

2011

GB

502

6

1.20

10

Jeff Garcia

2007

TB

327

4

1.22

11

Josh Freeman

2010

TB

474

6

1.27

12

Robert Griffin III

2012

WAS

393

5

1.27

13

Ben Roethlisberger

2010

PIT

389

5

1.29

14

Phil Simms

1990

NYG

311

4

1.29

15

Aaron Rodgers

2009

GB

541

7

1.29

16

Jim Harbaugh

1997

IND

309

4

1.29

17

Brett Favre

2009

MIN

531

7

1.32

18

Brad Johnson

2002

TB

451

6

1.33

19

Marc Bulger

2006

RAM

588

8

1.36

20

Tom Brady

2007

NE

578

8

1.38

21

Neil O'Donnell

1993

PIT

486

7

1.44

22

Chad Pennington

2008

MIA

476

7

1.47

23

Jeff George

1993

IND

407

6

1.47

24

Donovan McNabb

2007

PHI

473

7

1.48

His physical ball security could have been much better, as his 1.55 fumble rate ranks 78th all time. But that mobility also meant Garrard was no stranger to being sacked and scrambling for yards as well.

Garrard fumbled 25 times in 2009-10, so it was becoming a problem at the end of his career.

Low interception rates can be fluky, especially in the scope of one season, but after 86 games and 76 starts, you could safely say Garrard was very good at protecting the ball.

 

The “Captain Comeback” Moments

When the quarterback’s not turning the ball over often that increases the chances of staying competitive in the game. Garrard was involved in many close games with Jacksonville, and his success was better than expected.

Garrard was 18-20 (.474) at game-winning drive opportunities. Not only would that have been the seventh-best percentage behind active starters (minimum 15 games), but it is a sizeable gap over the next two quarterbacks: Alex Smith (12-16; .429) and Joe Flacco (15-20; .429).

It is also one of the best documented* records in history:

Top Documented Clutch Records (Min. 30 Games)

Rk

QB

4Q/OT Wins

4Q/OT Losses

Pct.

1

Matt Ryan

23

14

0.622

2

Tom Brady

38

25

0.603

3

Joe Montana

34

31

0.523

4

Peyton Manning

50

49

0.505

5

Dan Marino

51

50

0.505

6

Eli Manning

28

28

0.500

7

John Elway

49.5

51.5

0.490

8

Roger Staubach

23

24

0.489

9

Jay Cutler

17

18

0.486

10

Ben Roethlisberger

30

32

0.484

11

Jake Plummer

30

33

0.476

12

David Garrard

18

20

0.474

*Not officially ranked 12th until more historic research is completed.

 

That’s more impressive company for Garrard, and frankly it’s so unexpected. His record in fourth-quarter comeback opportunities was 11-20 (.355), which is not nearly as remarkable, so he did get a big boost from the seven games where it was tied and he only needed a game-winning drive.

Garrard led a career-high five game-winning drives in the 2010 season, though some leave a bit to be desired on his part.

Against the Colts, Garrard could only set up a 59-yard field goal attempt, but when you throw all four passes to Tiquan Underwood, maybe we’re not giving him enough credit. Colts’ coach Jim Caldwell used the bad timeout and kicker Josh Scobee came through for the 31-28 victory.

To his credit, Garrard did convert three different third downs on the previous drive to put his team ahead 28-21 before Peyton Manning led another one of his famous comebacks against Jacksonville.

Similarly, when the Jaguars hosted Houston, Garrard led a go-ahead touchdown drive, which the defense failed to hold. He then put Scobee in position for a 43-yard field goal, which was missed with 1:34 to play. Finally, with the game tied 24-24 and 0:03 left at midfield, Garrard lofted a deep ball which was batted by the Texans, only to be caught on the deflection by Mike Thomas for the Hail Mary touchdown.

It was an improbable one-minute drill as Jacksonville started the drive at its own 34 with just 0:08 left in the game.

Against Cleveland, Garrard was not nearly as efficient, turning the ball over twice before throwing a game-tying touchdown to Marcedes Lewis on 3rd-and-14. But after the Browns regained a 20-17 lead, Garrard dumped down a short pass to Maurice Jones-Drew, who took it 75 yards to the CLE 1. Jones-Drew scored the game-winning touchdown two plays later.

Garrard’s final game-winning drive of his career came against Oakland after the Raiders tied the game. He simply handed the ball off once to Jones-Drew, who went 30 yards to the end zone with 1:34 to play.

Garrard’s most famous comeback/game-winning drive came in his first playoff start in Pittsburgh in the 2007 AFC Wild Card.  It did not look to be necessary with Jacksonville leading 28-10 in the fourth quarter, but Pittsburgh mounted a rally thanks in part to two interceptions by Garrard.

Trailing 29-29 with 2:38 left, Garrard took over near midfield. But it quickly came to a critical 4th-and-2 play that would ultimately decide the game. Garrard scrambled for a huge 32-yard gain down to the PIT 11. Four plays later Scobee kicked the game-winning field goal. Now the Steelers can rightfully argue the referees missed a big holding penalty on the fourth-down run, but it was uncalled and the play remains the big highlight in Garrard’s career.

Now some will say Garrard’s drives were not flashy or important enough to deserve the same level of credit as the quarterbacks listed above.

There is some truth to that. Only six of Garrard’s 18 game-winning drives came against teams with a winning record. He only led Jacksonville into the playoffs as a primary starter once (2007).

But if you look at his career stats in clutch situations compared to the rest of the game:

David Garrard in the Clutch (Career Incl. Playoffs)

Situation

Att.

Comp.

Pct.

Yards

YPA

TD

INT

PR

4QC/GWD

298

177

59.4

2143

7.19

11

8

82.7

Other

2045

1263

61.8

14346

7.02

81

49

86.0

Sure, the Hail Mary being caught instead of falling incomplete is the difference between 82.7 and 80.6, but how different is that from the desperation throws that get intercepted in similar situations?

Garrard was basically the same quarterback whether it was a tense situation or not. That’s better than being the guy that tries to do too much when the game’s on the line.

 

Career Retrospective: Garrard Provided Stability in Jacksonville

The Jaguars drafted Garrard out of East Carolina in the fourth round (108th overall) in the 2002 draft. Mark Brunell was still the team’s quarterback, but that era would soon be ending along with the tenure of head coach Tom Coughlin.

Garrard rarely played as a rookie, but did make his first career start in Week 17 in Indianapolis. The Colts were playing for a playoff spot, but had trouble putting the Jaguars away. The game ended when Garrard’s Hail Mary for Jimmy Smith fell incomplete.

Coughlin was replaced by new coach Jack Del Rio after the season. Not knowing fully in what they had in Garrard, the Jaguars used the No. 7 pick in the 2003 draft on quarterback Byron Leftwich.

Though he had his moments, Leftwich struggled with staying healthy as his lack of mobility led to many hits. Garrard proved to be more mobile and just as capable of making things happen in the passing game.

The 2004 season was when Garrard discovered he had Crohn’s disease, but he still played the game. In his first start of the season, Garrard threw a 36-yard game-winning touchdown pass to Smith in overtime to beat the Lions.

A year later the Jaguars were off to a good start under Leftwich, but an injury put Garrard back under center. He went 4-1 as a starter, only losing to the 13-0 Colts. Garrard finished the season with one interception on 168 pass attempts.

Despite starting the last five games of the season, Garrard was back on the bench in the playoffs as Del Rio went with Leftwich against the Patriots in the 2005 AFC Wild Card. Leftwich played poorly and the Jaguars lost 28-3.

Leftwich was again struggling in the 2006 season, which led to Garrard taking over as starter for the final 10 games. His performances were uneven and the team went 5-5, missing the playoffs by one game.

Just before the start of the 2007 season Del Rio named Garrard the team’s starter and the Jaguars released Leftwich. It was a risk at the time, but it paid off as Garrard had a career year with 18 touchdowns and only three interceptions in 12 games (9-3 as a starter).

Garrard helped the Jaguars become the first team to sweep the Steelers in Pittsburgh, earning the aforementioned win in the 2007 AFC Wild Card game. It was not a stellar day at all for Garrard (9-of-21 passing for 140 yards, TD, 2 INT), but he rushed for 58 yards. A week later he tried to keep pace with Tom Brady and the Patriots, throwing for 278 yards, two scores and a 100.3 passer rating. But New England’s offense was nearly perfect against Jacksonville’s defense, resulting in a 31-20 loss.

For his successful season the Jaguars rewarded Garrard with a six-year contract worth $60 million, which was about the going rate on new contracts at the time for quarterbacks like Marc Bulger and Tony Romo.

But the 2008 season was not nearly as successful. Jacksonville finished 5-11 as both the offense and defense took a dive from the previous season’s playoff success. Garrard started every game, throwing for 3,620 yards, 15 touchdowns, 13 interceptions and an 81.7 passer rating. He was also sacked 42 times.

Fred Taylor was wearing down at 32, so this was his final season with the team as Jones-Drew became the featured back. But the Jaguars struggled to find Garrard receivers, missing on past first-round picks like Reggie Williams and Matt Jones. At least tight end Marcedes Lewis was a solid pick.

In 2009 the Jaguars drafted offensive tackles Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton with their first two picks in the draft. But Garrard’s performance was still about the same as 2008: he threw 15 touchdowns and was sacked 42 times in each season.

His ESPN QBR was 53.07 in 2008 and 52.57 in 2009. The team won two more games this time to finish 7-9, but it was another bad finish after a 7-5 start. Manning and Brady each dropped 35 points on Garrard’s defense in back-to-back games to seal Jacksonville’s fate.

Garrard actually made the Pro Bowl as an alternate for the 2009 season. The truth is a lot of quarterbacks get invited to the Pro Bowl these days, but consider it a nice gesture.

The 2010 season would become the second best of Garrard’s career. He had career-best numbers with a 64.5 completion percentage and 23 touchdown passes. He also rushed for five touchdowns while playing in 14 games. He was 8-6 as a starter with a 90.8 passer rating (60.97 QBR).

It was an 8-5 start, but again the Jaguars struggled to beat the rival Colts on the road in a big Week 15 showdown. The Colts won 34-24 as Garrard finished 24-of-38 passing for 294 yards, two touchdowns and an interception.

A week later came the fateful game against Washington. It was in Jacksonville, but the weather was a mess. The only thing sloppier was the offense. Garrard’s crushing interception in overtime would become his final play.

After the frustrating loss Garrard underwent finger surgery, missing the last game of the season. Jacksonville’s three-game slide kept them out of the playoffs.

The team drafted quarterback Blaine Gabbert 10th overall in the 2011 draft, but Garrard was still expected to be Del Rio’s starter.

Then the shocking cut came just five days before the start of the regular season. According to ESPN, it was announced just two hours after the team introduced Garrard as the starting quarterback at a kickoff luncheon at the chamber of commerce.

Jacksonville can cite all the performance issues they want. The shady move was a way of saving $9 million. Since moving forward with Gabbert, the Jaguars have exceeded 24 points in just two of their last 32 games (7-25 record).

Garrard had surgery for a herniated disk and sat out the 2011 season. He signed with Miami in 2012. Even though they too drafted a young quarterback in Ryan Tannehill, Garrard had a good shot to start the season. If you watched HBO’s Hard Knocks, it was looking like Miami’s passing game might be Garrard throwing to Chad Johnson in Week 1.

But arthroscopic surgery on Garrard’s knee caused him to miss the entire preseason, which led to his release by the team. Once again Garrard had to sit out a full season.

The Jets just signed Garrard on March 11, 2013. With the hope of finally being healthy and winning another starting job, it all came to an end this week as Garrard announced his retirement. The swelling of the knee was too much to overcome.

In the end Garrard only performed on the field for the Jaguars over the course of nine seasons. He was never elite. He was probably never even great, but he always provided the Jaguars with a solid option at quarterback. He could keep the team competitive in most games. He was an 80+ passer rating guy in six straight seasons to end his career.

In many ways, Garrard was like a clone of Mark Brunell for the Jaguars. He just did not have as good of a team around him.

When you look at what Jacksonville has had at quarterback since Garrard, or how similar teams struggle without a competent passer, the realization is having only a stable presence under center is better than you think.

Just like how Garrard’s career was better than most think.

 

Mid-Round Quarterbacks Rarely Pan Out

In an era where first-round quarterbacks dominate, there is not much to be found in the middle rounds of the draft. Most teams either have a first-round guy, or they luck into a late round/undrafted player like Tom Brady or Tony Romo.

This is another reason why Garrard’s career is such a good value: quarterbacks taken in the fourth round rarely pan out anymore.

Even historically the round has not been kind to passers. You have two Hall of Fame players in Norm Van Brocklin (1949) and Sonny Jurgensen (1957). That’s the gold standard for the fourth round.

Then you have two players that won a league MVP and started the Super Bowl (in the same season even) in Joe Theismann (1971) and Rich Gannon (1987). Of course Theismann used to return punts in Washington, and the Patriots wanted Gannon to be a safety long before either found success.

But after those four names, it’s a wide-open competition for the fifth-best player. There is no reason Garrard cannot compare favorably to names like Steve Beuerlein and Vince Ferragamo.

Gannon was drafted in 1987. When you look at the 40 quarterbacks drafted in the fourth round since then, Garrard’s case for No. 1 makes perfect sense:

NFL 4th-Round Quarterbacks Drafted Since 1988

QB

Year

GP

GS

Record

Cmp.

Att.

Yds

TD

INT

PR

Aaron Brooks

1999

93

90

38-52

1673

2963

20261

123

92

78.5

Scott Mitchell

1990

99

71

32-39

1301

2346

15692

95

81

75.3

David Garrard

2002

86

76

39-37

1406

2281

16003

89

54

85.8

Kyle Orton

2005

72

69

35-34

1293

2214

14621

81

57

79.7

Craig Erickson

1992

52

35

14-21

591

1092

7625

41

38

74.3

Danny Kanell

1996

43

24

10-13-1

491

956

5129

31

34

63.2

Rob Johnson

1995

48

29

12-17

494

806

5795

30

23

83.6

Seneca Wallace

2003

62

21

6-15

452

764

4808

31

18

81.3

Chris Weinke

2001

29

20

2-18

386

709

3904

15

26

62.2

Sage Rosenfels

2001

44

12

6-6

351

562

4156

30

29

81.2

Donald Hollas

1991

32

8

4-4

202

375

2399

13

21

61.8

Danny Wuerffel

1997

25

10

4-6

184

350

2123

12

22

56.4

Luke McCown

2004

22

9

2-7

184

316

2035

9

14

68.5

Steve Stenstrom

1995

17

10

1-9

177

314

1895

4

12

62.5

Scott Zolak

1991

55

7

3-4

124

248

1314

8

7

64.8

Will Furrer

1992

9

2

0-2

57

124

572

2

10

31.4

Casey Weldon

1992

26

0

-

60

120

713

1

4

57.4

Jesse Palmer

2001

8

3

0-3

63

120

562

3

4

59.8

Jeff Carlson

1989

7

3

0-3

49

114

636

2

9

34.1

Cary Conklin

1990

7

2

0-2

52

101

560

5

3

72.2

Doug Nussmeier

1994

8

2

0-2

46

82

455

1

4

55.7

Stephen McGee

2009

3

1

1-0

46

82

420

3

0

82.4

Bill Musgrave

1991

12

1

0-1

43

69

402

1

2

71.0

Jeff Lewis

1996

12

0

-

28

54

210

0

2

46.1

Kirk Cousins

2012

3

1

1-0

33

48

466

4

3

101.6

Troy Taylor

1990

7

0

-

12

20

125

2

1

90.6

Rohan Davey

2002

7

0

-

8

19

88

0

0

56.5

Joe Germaine

1999

3

0

-

9

16

136

1

2

65.6

Mike Kafka

2010

4

0

-

11

16

107

0

2

47.7

Dave Barr

1995

2

0

-

5

9

42

0

0

67.8

Perry Klein

1994

2

0

-

0

1

0

0

0

39.6

Jeff Graham

1989

0

0

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Chris Hakel

1992

0

0

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Chad May

1995

0

0

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Pat Barnes

1997

1

0

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Stefan Lefors

2005

0

0

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Landry Jones

2013

0

0

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Matt Barkley

2013

0

0

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Ryan Nassib

2013

0

0

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Tyler Wilson

2013

0

0

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

This does include four rookies drafted this year. It’s an interesting group that may produce a future starter. The Captain’s personal favorite is Tyler Wilson, but he has entered Oakland’s black hole. Kirk Cousins is quickly gaining clout as Robert Griffin III’s backup, but we may learn a lot more about him this season.

Five of these players never threw a pass in the NFL. Some college successes like Chris Weinke and Danny Wuerffel were NFL flops.

Only 10 players exceeded 400 pass attempts, including Slingin’ Sage Rosenfels, Short Seneca Wallace and Sack Lovin’ Rob Johnson. Kyle Orton has some similar numbers to Garrard, but his peak was never as high even if he piled up volume stats at Mile High with the Broncos.

This really comes down to Garrard, Aaron Brooks and Scott Mitchell. We will pause for a moment as you catch your breath from laughing.

Ready?

Even if it’s just 39-37, Garrard has the most wins and only winning record of the three. His passing stats, even if adjusted for era, are better. His 85.8 passer rating is the highest on the list among anyone with at least 50 attempts.

In fact, his passer rating ranks 21st in NFL history, just ahead of peer and retiree Donovan McNabb (85.6). A big part of this is the era he plays in, but it will take some time for Garrard to fall out of the top 30.

Garrard was also a better rusher than Mitchell and Brooks. Garrard rushed for 1,746 yards and 17 touchdowns while averaging 4.59 yards per carry.

We already established Garrard as 11th in turnover rate and one of the best records in the clutch (18-20) that we have seen.

Mitchell ranks 110th in turnover rate (5.31 percent). He only had six comebacks and nine game-winning drives. His record in game-winning drive opportunities was 9-20 (.310).

Brooks ranks 56th in turnover rate (4.38 percent). He actually did have a good share of late wins with 12 comebacks and 18 game-winning drives. His record in game-winning drive opportunities was 18-23 (.439).

Garrard is the only player on the entire list to make a Pro Bowl, though that’s not a good argument for him as Mitchell had a fantastic 1995 season (32 touchdowns and 4,338 yards). The problem is he completely imploded in the playoffs, throwing four interceptions in a game Detroit fell behind 51-7 to the Eagles. The Lions were three-point favorites.

Mitchell was much more of a one-year wonder than Garrard. His next best season came in 1997 when he threw 19 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Barry Sanders was league MVP to help Detroit make the playoffs at 9-7, but Mitchell threw for 78 yards on 10-of-25 passing in a 20-10 loss to Tampa Bay. Mitchell had a 23.1 passer rating in two playoff starts for Detroit.

Brooks was steadier for a longer time with the Saints. He led the team to its first playoff win in franchise history in 2000, dethroning the Rams.

Brooks had four straight seasons (2001-04) with at least 3,500 yards and 21 touchdown passes, but he would make some of the dumbest decisions you’ll ever see from a pro quarterback.

The second search term for him on YouTube is “Aaron Brooks backwards pass,” so that should tell you something. It was memorable for all the wrong reasons.

Garrard would have had bigger volume numbers without the string of injuries the last three years, but when you compare him to Mitchell and Brooks, it’s clear that he played more efficient, mistake-free football.

Garrard was a better quarterback, and the best to come out of the fourth round since Gannon.

NFL history may not shine as brightly on Garrard, but the facts show us he keeps a lot of good company in the record books.

What more can you ask out of a mid-round pick?

 

Scott Kacsmar is a football writer/researcher who has contributed large quantities of data to Pro-Football-Reference.com, including the only standardized database of fourth quarter comebacks and game-winning drives. You can visit his blog for a complete writing archive. Please send any questions or comments to Scott at smk_42@yahoo.com, or you can follow him on Twitter at @CaptainComeback.


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