CHFF Super Study: the evolution of NFL pass-run ratio

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Aug 16, 2012



By Scott Kacsmar
Cold, Hard Football Facts Ho-Ratio Alger of Analysis


By air or on the ground, NFL offenses have two primary modes of attacking defenses. Some teams will favor the run over the pass, but what cannot be denied is that more points come out of the passing game.
 
We have taken a look at the 1,221 teams since the NFL-AFL merger of 1970 to see how pass-run ratios have evolved, and you may be surprised to learn today’s teams are passing no more than offenses in the mid-90s. They just have more success with shorter, safer throws.
 
There are also conflicting results on how to denote the best rushing offenses in the league. How important is running the ball when your team is losing? You may be surprised to learn two of the top 11 teams since the merger in rushing yards per attempt took the field last year. Neither won more than six games.
 
Instead of shooting for 50/50 balance, the ideal team would use the pass to get the lead, and the run to grind out the clock for the win. Let the percentages fall where they may when the clock reads 0:00, but that type of approach has been successful for decades.
 
Offenses should always strive for success by any means, and not balance.
 

League Average Run-Pass Ratio Since 1970

The NFL most certainly did not change into a “pass-first league” overnight.
 
The forward pass has had a slow evolution into becoming the preferred method of offense in the NFL. From teams running the ball more than 70 percent of the time in the early years of recorded stats (1930s), few teams really figured out how to dominate through the air back then.
 
Believe it or not, the first season the NFL’s run ratio fell under 50 percent was in 1966, or the season that began the tradition of the Super Bowl. In the 1960s, the NFL ran the ball on 50.6 percent of offensive plays, compared to the 46.6 percent in the pass-happy (but pass-inefficient) AFL.
 
The merger of the leagues in 1970 still saw the decade favor the run. But it was the “Mel Blount” rule change in 1978, making it illegal for defenders to contact receivers after five yards, that was the first domino in pushing the whole NFL towards the pass.
 
By 1980, the pass finally beat the run in a post-merger season, being used on 50.6 percent of all offensive snaps. It has not dropped below that mark since.
 
Year Pass Ratio Run Ratio
1970 48.27% 51.73%
1971 46.37% 53.63%
1972 44.36% 55.64%
1973 42.86% 57.14%
1974 45.47% 54.53%
1975 45.18% 54.82%
1976 43.83% 56.17%
1977 42.30% 57.70%
1978 44.43% 55.57%
1979 48.04% 51.96%
1980 50.60% 49.40%
1981 51.17% 48.83%
1982 52.57% 47.43%
1983 51.78% 48.22%
1984 53.10% 46.90%
1985 53.56% 46.44%
1986 53.70% 46.30%
1987 52.53% 47.47%
1988 52.76% 47.24%
1989 54.17% 45.83%
1990 53.96% 46.04%
1991 54.89% 45.11%
1992 54.20% 45.80%
1993 54.95% 45.05%
1994 56.03% 43.97%
1995 57.39% 42.61%
1996 55.67% 44.33%
1997 55.46% 44.54%
1998 55.17% 44.83%
1999 57.07% 42.93%
2000 56.21% 43.79%
2001 55.98% 44.02%
2002 56.70% 43.30%
2003 54.79% 45.21%
2004 54.88% 45.12%
2005 55.11% 44.89%
2006 54.85% 45.15%
2007 56.47% 43.53%
2008 55.43% 44.57%
2009 56.28% 43.72%
2010 56.93% 43.07%
2011 57.10% 42.90%
 
The pass ratio has remained above 54 percent since 1991. While many think the pass has really gone up dramatically in recent years, it is just not true.
  • During the 1994-96 seasons, teams threw the ball on 56.4 percent of all offensive plays.
  • During the 2009-11 seasons, teams threw the ball on 56.8 percent of all offensive plays.
 
The 2011 season (57.1% pass) saw huge passing numbers, but in terms of playcalling, it still trails the 1995 season (57.4% pass), which was the pass-happiest season in NFL history. Even the standard deviation in pass ratio for those seasons is close, with 4.51 for 1995, and 4.55 for 2011.
 
There was not a single team in 1995 that ran the ball more than they passed. Three teams last season — Houston, San Francisco and Denver — each ran more than they passed.
 
So when you hear someone say that “it’s now a pass-first league,” ask them where they were 20 years ago.

The Ratio is Misleading

While we use the ratios to talk about how run-heavy or pass-happy the league is, the fact is the number is misleading. Realistically, all of these pass-run ratios should be higher towards the pass.
 
First, you have quarterbacks scrambling on designed pass plays, which turn into runs statistically. Not certain exactly how often this happens in a season, but the more scramblers in the league, the bigger the factor.
 
Most designed quarterback runs are sneaks, while the more mobile guys get a few draws. But it’s the players like Tim Tebow, Cam Newton and Michael Vick who inflate the rushing figures with all the times they just take off.
 
The reverse rarely happens, when a called pass turns into a statistical run. This is when the quarterback throws a backwards pass, or lateral. Rob Gronkowski scored a touchdown against Indianapolis last season on such a play, which was initially ruled a receiving touchdown before turning into a 2-yard running score.
 
We have seen someone like Ben Roethlisberger, at least a few times in his career, throw a backwards pass to a running back before going down to avoid the sack. It goes down as a run, though the play was designed to be a pass. But those are very rare.
 
What’s very common every season is the victory formation: the kneel down. Teams inflate their rushing attempt totals by kneeling down at the end of the half to secure a win. 
 
In 2005, teams kneeled down a total of 375 times in the regular season. There were 14,375 carries that year, meaning 14,000 “legit” runs (several hundred more were those quarterback scrambles). That means 2.6 percent of the league’s runs were kneel downs.
 
Removing kneel downs from the total plays and runs, and you change the run ratio from 44.89 percent down to 44.24 percent. Not a huge difference, but again, the kneel downs inflate the run ratio every season.
 
The pass form of a clock play, the spike, is not as common as the kneel down. Spikes are about the only form in which a team can inflate their pass ratio, though they are not as common as a quarterback scramble or kneel down.
 
Moral of the story: always assume the true pass ratio is a little higher than the numbers suggest.
 

The Most One-Dimensional Offenses

Now we will focus on the post-merger teams that took one-dimensional to the extreme level in either the run or the pass. You should not be surprised to see which era of teams dominates each category.
 

Most Run-Heavy Offenses

The 33 teams with the highest run ratio all played in the 1971-78 seasons. It is the most run-heavy era of modern football, so this is not much of a surprise. The 1982 New England Patriots (No. 34, 61.6 run percent) are the highest team that did not come during that eight-year span.
 
Of the 163 teams to run the ball on at least 55 percent of their plays, the breakdown is very slanted:
 
Years Teams Win Pct.
1970-79 130 0.594
1980-89 25 0.652
1990-99 3 0.688
2000-09 5 0.713
 
More on the five 21st-century teams later. Here is a look at the 10 most run-heavy offenses:
 
10 Most Run-Heavy Offenses Since 1970
Team Year Run Ratio Att. Yards YPC Record Result
Buffalo 1973 71.26 605 3088 5.10 9-5 No Playoffs
LA Rams 1973 69.59 659 2925 4.44 12-2 Lost NFC-D
Chicago 1972 69.34 536 2360 4.40 4-9-1 No Playoffs
Miami 1972 68.65 613 2960 4.83 14-0 Won Super Bowl
Pittsburgh 1976 68.23 653 2971 4.55 10-4 Lost AFC-C
Green Bay 1972 68.17 544 2127 3.91 10-4 Lost NFC-D
Miami 1975 66.29 594 2500 4.21 10-4 No Playoffs
Oakland 1977 66.12 681 2627 3.86 11-3 Lost AFC-C
Buffalo 1974 65.74 545 2094 3.84 9-5 Lost AFC-D
Chicago 1976 65.68 578 2363 4.09 7-7 No Playoffs
 
These teams won 68.9 percent of their regular season games, but were 5-5 in the playoffs with only three teams getting a playoff win. That includes the undefeated 1972 Miami Dolphins.
 
While the top four teams all come from the 1972-73 seasons, no one ran the ball quite like the 1973 Buffalo Bills behind O.J. Simpson’s 2,003 yards in a 14-game season. It is even more remarkable when you consider the putrid passing attack the Bills had, led by rookie quarterback Joe Ferguson.
  • 1973 Buffalo Bills’ passing game: 96 of 213 (45.1%) for 1,236 yards, 4 TD, 14 INT, 31 sacks, 42.7 passer rating.
  • Ferguson started all 14 games and had just 939 passing yards and 4 TD.
  • Last season, Tom Brady passed for 940 yards and 7 TD in the first two games.
Of course these run-heavy teams were helped by a rule change in 1972 when the NFL moved the hash marks closer to the center of the field, opening up more possibilities in the running game.
 
That was what the 70s were all about. You are probably interested in which of today’s teams have focused on ground and pound the most. The results show a common factor.
 
10 Most Run-Heavy Offenses Since 2000
Team Year Run Ratio Att. Yards YPC Record Result
Pittsburgh 2004 61.07 618 2464 3.99 15-1 Lost AFC-C
NY Jets 2009 58.93 607 2756 4.54 9-7 Lost AFC-C
Pittsburgh 2005 57.19 549 2223 4.05 11-5 Won Super Bowl
Baltimore 2008 55.95 592 2381 4.02 11-5 Lost AFC-C
Atlanta 2008 55.39 560 2443 4.36 11-5 Lost NFC-WC
Baltimore 2003 54.71 552 2674 4.84 10-6 Lost AFC-WC
Pittsburgh 2001 54.46 580 2774 4.78 13-3 Lost AFC-C
Atlanta 2004 54.08 524 2672 5.10 11-5 Lost NFC-C
Carolina 2008 53.73 504 2437 4.84 12-4 Lost NFC-D
Atlanta 2006 53.70 537 2939 5.47 7-9 No Playoffs
 
Other than seeing a lot of Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Atlanta, five of the top six teams all had a rookie quarterback.
 
Ben Roethlisberger, Mark Sanchez, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan and even Kyle Boller in 2003 were all rookies, insulated by a run-heavy offense. The Steelers even repeated the strategy in 2005 on their way to a Super Bowl win in Roethlisberger’s second season.
 
You can look at the yards per carry and see that the Steelers were just under 4.0 YPC in 2004. However, they did have 34 kneel downs on their way to a 15-1 record, so their average was more realistically 4.28 YPC. Just another example of how kneel downs can distort meaningful plays.
 
Atlanta, 2004 and 2006, shows up largely because of Michael Vick’s scrambling. Likewise, the 2001 Steelers had Kordell Stewart in one of his two good seasons, and he had 96 carries.
 
The last team included is the 2008 Panthers, who were trying to hide Jake Delhomme, and we all saw why come playoff time.
 
These teams were a combined 110-50 (.688), and you can see six of them made it to at least the conference championship game. They were 11-8 in the playoffs.
 

Most Pass-Happy Offenses

The teams with the highest pass ratios are not clustered into one portion of a decade the way the run-heavy teams were. While you can see some recent teams at the top of the list, there are also teams from previous decades.
 
Here is the breakdown for the 154 teams that threw the ball on at least 60 percent of their plays:
 
Years Teams Win Pct.
1970-79 0 N/A
1980-89 24 0.344
1990-99 51 0.424
2000-09 63 0.396
2010-11 16 0.500
 
The oldest teams to hit 60 percent passing are the 1980 versions of the Saints and 49ers, who interestingly enough played each other in a game that featured a regular season record 28-point comeback win by a young Joe Montana-led team.
 
You can see the winning percentage for these teams go from really poor to .500 the last two seasons. Before getting too excited, keep in mind the only teams in those 16 that had a winning record had Drew Brees (2010-11 Saints), Peyton Manning (2010 Colts), Matthew Stafford (2011 Lions), Aaron Rodgers (2011 Packers), and Eli Manning (2011 Giants) at quarterback.
 
Well there is also the bizarre case of the 2011 Tennessee Titans with Matt Hasselbeck, who went 9-7 and threw the ball 61.8 percent of the time.
 
But for the most part, if you want to win with a pass-heavy offense, you better have a franchise quarterback, and not the Ken Whisenhunt circus featuring Derek Anderson, John Skelton, Max Hall and Kevin Kolb in Arizona the last two years.
 
Here are the 10 most pass-happy offenses since the merger:
 
10 Most Pass-Happy Offenses Since 1970
Team Year Pass Ratio Attempts Sacks PR Record Result
Detroit 2006 68.43 596 63 79.9 3-13 No Playoffs
Houston 1991 67.61 667 24 82.3 11-5 Lost AFC-D
Houston 1990 67.40 639 39 96.7 9-7 Lost AFC-WC
Atlanta 1994 66.87 629 37 77.1 7-9 No Playoffs
Arizona 2005 66.51 670 45 81.0 5-11 No Playoffs
St. Louis 2002 66.50 635 46 79.9 7-9 No Playoffs
Detroit 2007 66.42 587 54 79.4 7-9 No Playoffs
Atlanta 1989 66.42 578 51 76.4 3-13 No Playoffs
Detroit 2011 66.35 666 36 97.2 10-6 Lost NFC-WC
Atlanta 1996 66.12 600 42 72.3 3-13 No Playoffs
 
Were you expecting to see Detroit (3), Atlanta (3) and the Houston Oilers (2) dominate the list the way they did? The other two teams (2002 Rams, 2005 Cardinals) featured Kurt Warner for part of the season. The run-and-shoot makes a few appearances, as does Mike Martz three times (2002 Rams, 2006-07 Lions).
 
The passer ratings (PR) for the teams were usually around league average, and these teams were just 65-95 (.406) and 1-3 in the playoffs.
 
Martz’s 2006 Lions, for which he served as offensive coordinator, hold the record for fewest carries in a 16-game season with 304. Jon Kitna might have liked a few more handoffs if it meant a decrease in those 63 sacks.
 

Rushing Yards per Attempt: We Need a Better Stat

The difference in the success of run-heavy teams and pass-happy teams speaks directly to the difference in running and passing. Teams that are ahead will run to grind out the clock, while the teams that are behind will keep throwing in an effort to come back.
 
While we have a lot of ways to measure a team’s passing success, good old-fashioned yards per attempt usually does a reasonable job of picking out a winner (71.2 percent in 2011). But if we look towards rushing, the rushing yards per attempt (YPA) stat is less successful, with 2011 teams only winning 47.6 percent of games when boasting a higher YPA than the opponent.
 
In theory, rushing YPA makes a lot of sense. The more efficient you are at gaining rushing yards, the better the rushing team you are. However, unlike the passing game, rushing YPA does not correlate to winning, practically making it a trivial, irrelevant stat.
 
Look at the two dozen teams since the merger to have a rushing YPA of over 5.0:
 
Team Rushing YPA of 5.0+, Since 1970
Rk Team Year Att. Yards YPC Record Result
1 Detroit 1997 447 2464 5.51 9-7 Lost NFC-WC
2 Atlanta 2006 537 2939 5.47 7-9 No Playoffs
3 Philadelphia 2010 428 2324 5.43 10-6 Lost NFC-WC
4 Carolina 2011 445 2408 5.41 6-10 No Playoffs
5 Minnesota 2007 494 2634 5.33 8-8 No Playoffs
6 Minnesota 2002 473 2507 5.30 6-10 No Playoffs
7 LA Rams 1984 541 2864 5.29 10-6 Lost NFC-WC
8 Detroit 1990 366 1927 5.27 6-10 No Playoffs
9 Tennessee 2009 499 2592 5.19 8-8 No Playoffs
10 San Francisco 1998 491 2544 5.18 12-4 Lost NFC-D
11 Minnesota 2011 448 2318 5.17 3-13 No Playoffs
12 Kansas City 2002 462 2378 5.15 8-8 No Playoffs
13 San Diego 2003 417 2146 5.15 4-12 No Playoffs
14 Detroit 1994 406 2080 5.12 9-7 Lost NFC-WC
15 Buffalo 1973 605 3088 5.10 9-5 No Playoffs
16 Atlanta 2004 524 2672 5.10 11-5 Lost NFC-C
17 Pittsburgh 1972 497 2520 5.07 11-3 Lost AFC-C
18 Buffalo 1975 588 2974 5.06 8-6 No Playoffs
19 Philadelphia 2011 450 2276 5.06 8-8 No Playoffs
20 Green Bay 2003 507 2558 5.05 10-6 Lost NFC-D
21 Indianapolis 1985 485 2439 5.03 5-11 No Playoffs
22 NY Giants 2008 502 2518 5.02 12-4 Lost NFC-D
23 San Francisco 1999 418 2095 5.01 4-12 No Playoffs
24 Miami 1971 486 2429 5.00 10-3-1 Lost Super Bowl
 
We have 24 teams, and 14 of them failed to even make the playoffs, including nine of the top 13 teams. These 24 teams won 51.7 percent of their games.
 
The postseason “success” is even more off-putting, with a 6-10 record. That includes some of the most fortunate wins in playoff history:
  • The only playoff win by the top 15 teams belongs to the 1998 49ers when they overcame a missed Jerry Rice fumble and got a game-winning touchdown pass to Terrell Owens to beat Green Bay.
  • The first playoff win in the history of the Pittsburgh Steelers was thanks to Franco Harris’ Immaculate Reception to beat the Oakland Raiders in 1972.
  • Green Bay advanced in 2003 after Matt Hasselbeck got the ball and wanted to score, marking the first NFL playoff game to end in overtime on a defensive return touchdown when Al Harris scored the winning pick six.
  • The 1971 Dolphins’ path to three straight Super Bowls may have started one-and-done if not for a double-overtime win in Kansas City in the longest game in NFL history.
 
The list also includes two teams from last season: No. 4 Carolina Panthers (5.41 YPC) and No. 11 Minnesota Vikings (5.17 YPC). The teams combined to win just nine games in 2011, and that includes a head-to-head meeting.
 
The correlation between rushing YPC and win percentage for the 1,221 teams is 0.17, which is not strong at all.
 
If rushing YPC is not a good way to evaluate the effectiveness of a team’s running game, then what is? Plain old yards, and of course carries, correlate well with winning, but that again is the result of teams with the lead running clock.
 
Consider this example. Since 1970, we looked at teams that ran the ball at least 30 times, but averaged less than 4.0 YPC, which would mean below average. Then we looked at teams that averaged more than 5.0 YPC (elite performance), but had fewer than 20 carries. Then we threw in a few more similar results.
 
Team Record Pct.
30+ Carries, <4.0 YPC 3482-1096-41 0.758
<20 Carries, 5.0+ YPC 37-406 0.084
30+ Carries, >5.0+ YPC 1287-389-9 0.767
<20 Carries, <4.0 YPC 185-1772-1 0.095
 
Whether you run for under 4.0 (.758) or greater than 5.0 (.767), as long as you hit 30 carries you are likely going to win the game over three-quarters of the time. The rushing effectiveness is irrelevant as the carries themselves tell us a lot about how the game played out.
 
Likewise, if you failed to exceed 20 carries, it does not matter if you averaged over 5.0 (.084) or under 4.0 (.095), you likely lost the game over 90 percent of the time.
 
Even if you average over 6.0 YPC, teams have a record of 15-169 (.082) when they are at 20 carries or less. In that case, it is likely one long run is boosting the average. No matter how good one run is, it still only can help you for one drive in a game.
 
Similarly, we looked at games where a team threw at least 35 passes, which would be an above-average amount since the merger, and again made note of the rushing yards per carry.
 
Teams - 35+ Pass Attempts 1970-2011
Situation Record Pct.
Team Rushing <4.0 YPC 1185-2655-18 0.309
Team Rushing >5.0 YPC 239-620-3 0.279
 
Once again, regardless of the rushing YPC, if your quarterback is throwing the ball at least 35 times, he is fighting an uphill battle for a win. We will be sure to have future studies in this realm of stats.
 
So if rushing YPC is meaningless, carries and yards are too score dependent, then what can we use to judge a running game?
 
Some formula involving success rate as it relates to down and distance. If you had a team that only decided to run the ball when they needed two yards for a first down or touchdown, and they gained at least those two yards every time, then what’s stopping us from saying they are the most effective rushing offense?
 
Work like this already exists at Football Outsiders, for individual backs and team rushing. You could also look at Advanced NFL Stats for stats on expected points added, success rate and win probability, though again you will see Carolina and Minnesota lead the way in expected points from the running game in 2011.
 
Perhaps we are just at a point in time where running fails to correlate to winning more than ever. Notice the 2011 New York Giants ranked dead last in Run EPA.
 
What an offense actually needs from the running game is short-yardage conversions, and enough carries to keep the defense guessing, and the receivers rested before they go full speed for another pass.
 

Pass/Run Ratios for Super Bowl Winners

Finally, we will conclude with a look at the pass-run ratio for all 46 Super Bowl champions. Beyond the percentages, you will see where the team ranked that season in each category.
 
The average Super Bowl winner runs the ball 51.35 percent of the time, and since the merger, ranks 9.2 in run ratio (or 20.9 in pass ratio).
 

Run-Pass Ratios for All Super Bowl Champions (1966-2011)
Team Year Pass Ratio Rk Run Ratio Rk
Green Bay 1966 42.35 - 57.65 -
Green Bay 1967 43.97 - 56.03 -
NY Jets 1968 49.29 - 50.71 -
Kansas City 1969 41.94 - 58.06 -
Baltimore 1970 52.21 7 47.79 20
Dallas 1971 43.43 16 56.57 11
Miami 1972 31.35 25 68.65 2
Miami 1973 34.66 24 65.34 3
Pittsburgh 1974 42.53 20 57.47 7
Pittsburgh 1975 38.78 23 61.22 4
Oakland 1976 41.12 21 58.88 8
Dallas 1977 41.80 18 58.20 11
Pittsburgh 1978 38.72 25 61.28 4
Pittsburgh 1979 48.06 15 51.94 14
Oakland 1980 48.18 19 51.82 10
San Francisco 1981 49.37 19 50.63 10
Washington 1982 47.32 23 52.68 6
LA Raiders 1983 50.77 17 49.23 12
San Francisco 1984 49.48 23 50.52 6
Chicago 1985 43.78 28 56.22 1
NY Giants 1986 48.14 23 51.86 6
Washington 1987 50.25 21 49.75 8
San Francisco 1988 51.02 20 48.98 9
San Francisco 1989 51.71 18 48.29 11
NY Giants 1990 44.11 27 55.89 2
Washington 1991 45.78 28 54.22 1
Dallas 1992 50.69 22 49.31 7
Dallas 1993 50.70 24 49.30 5
San Francisco 1994 52.65 23 47.35 6
Dallas 1995 50.84 28 49.16 3
Green Bay 1996 55.84 15 44.16 16
Denver 1997 51.31 24 48.69 7
Denver 1998 49.57 27 50.43 4
St. Louis 1999 56.64 18 43.36 14
Baltimore 2000 51.70 23 48.30 9
New England 2001 52.75 24 47.25 8
Tampa Bay 2002 59.49 8 40.51 25
New England 2003 54.61 19 45.39 14
New England 2004 49.37 28 50.63 5
Pittsburgh 2005 42.81 32 57.19 1
Indianapolis 2006 56.58 12 43.42 21
NY Giants 2007 54.95 22 45.05 11
Pittsburgh 2008 54.68 20 45.32 13
New Orleans 2009 54.65 24 45.35 9
Green Bay 2010 57.90 14 42.10 19
NY Giants 2011 60.02 9 39.98 24
 
The 1970 Baltimore Colts, with a 37-year-old Johnny Unitas and 36-year-old Earl Morrall, were the first and only team to be pass-first (52.21 percent) until the 1983 Raiders. No one had a higher ratio than those Colts until the 1994 49ers (52.65 percent) in Steve Young’s best season.
 
But it was the 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers who matched their historic defense with a historically non-Super Bowl type of offense, throwing it 59.5 percent of the time. Jon Gruden is better known for his work with Rich Gannon in Oakland, the team they beat in Super Bowl XXXVII, but he had Brad Johnson playing very effective in an offense that did very little on the ground.
 
Then the 2011 Giants came along and pushed it over 60 percent for the first time on their way to a second improbable championship in five seasons.
 
You can preach balance. You can have the running game assist you in winning. But the key to success in the NFL lies in passing the ball, and stopping the pass. And it did not just become that way overnight.
 
Scott Kacsmar is a football writer/researcher who has contributed large quantities of data to Pro-Football-Reference.com, including the only standardized database of fourth quarter comebacks and game-winning drives. You can visit his blog for a complete writing archive. Please send any questions or comments to Scott at smk_42@yahoo.com, or you can follow him on Twitter at @CaptainComeback.

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