Cardinals fans, don't buy playoff tickets just yet

 

Kevin Kolb spent four years with the Philadelphia Eagles as a backup and was always considered to have the potential to be the future of the team.

 

Well, after last week's big trade Kolb is with the Arizona Cardinals, hoping to make his impact as a franchise quarterback starting with his fifth season in the league.

Kolb has been one of the biggest names in the free agency period the last few years. There have always been rumors of a trade or team trying to acquire his services. It’s not surprising, given he plays the all-important quarterback position, and has shown some flashes of greatness.
 
The problem is those flashes of greatness have been limited in quantity (three games, to be specific), and have come against pass defenses of little to no quality. Overall, Kolb has thrown more interceptions (14) than touchdowns (11), and lost five fumbles in limited action. Andy Reid’s offense has often been built on a quarterback that does not turn the ball over in great quantity.
 
The Cold, Hard Football Facts are leery of a quarterback that has done the following in four comeback opportunities in the fourth quarter:

And Philly fans thought McNabb was a choker? Regardless, Kolb has been rewarded with a handsome contract that could pay him $63M over the next five years -- about the going minimum rate for a franchise quarterback. What are the chances he actually lives up to it?
 
Kolb’s situation is somewhat unique for a quarterback entering the NFL. He was picked high in the second round (36th overall) in 2007 by a Philadelphia team that already had their starter in Donovan McNabb, though McNabb was coming off another injury and heading into a season where he would turn 31 years old. It seemed like head coach Andy Reid saw Kolb as the future of the Eagles. That has never panned out, and the reemergence of Michael Vick played a significant part in Kolb being on the bench last year and put on the trade block once again.
 
Let’s play a quick game of “Guess That QB."
 
Here are the career stats from the first four playing seasons of three different players. Tell us which one is Kevin Kolb, and which are Cleo Lemon and Jim Miller.
 

Player	GP	GS	Attempts	Comp.	%	Yards	YPA	TD	INT	Rating
Quarterback A	13	6	337	202	59.9	2144	6.36	10	12	73.6
Quarterback B	19	7	319	194	60.8	2082	6.53	11	14	73.2
Quarterback C	16	8	379	211	55.7	2185	5.77	8	7	71.8

 
Stumped? How about this answer:  It doesn’t matter, because Kolb being most statistically similar to guys like Cleo Lemon and Jim Miller is a major red flag.
 
Perhaps it is. Though, how often do we see a quarterback play four seasons that are essentially insignificant, then become a legit starter in year five or later?

THE STUDY
We start with a list of 75 quarterbacks that includes most of the greatest to ever play the game, and then some decent starters. No scrubs here. Then we used a few achievements to judge them by, with the goal to see how many seasons it took them to hit that mark.
 
The achievements are:

Older quarterbacks have an advantage for top 10 rankings and the Pro Bowl, while being disadvantaged at reaching the playoffs and starting 10+ games. Still, this should be a good barometer of finding out when any one of these quarterbacks “arrived."
 
Kevin Kolb has of course done none of these things in four years. So with that in mind, onto the list (sorted by ascending rookie season).
 

QB	1st year	10+ Starts	Playoff Start	Pro Bowl	Top 10 PR	Top 10 PY	Top 10 TDP
Sammy Baugh	1937	4	1	2	1	1	1
Sid Luckman	1939	3	2	2	2	1	1
Bob Waterfield	1945	5	1	1	1	1	1
Charlie Conerly	1948	2	3	3	1	1	1
Bobby Layne	1948	2	5	4	2	2	2
Norm Van Brocklin	1949	5	2	2	2	2	1
George Blanda	1949	5	8	12	5	5	5
Otto Graham	1950	1	1	1	1	1	1
Y.A. Tittle	1950	4	8	4	1	1	1
Johnny Unitas	1956	2	1	2	1	1	1
Bart Starr	1956	2	5	5	2	2	2
Jack Kemp	1957	2	2	2	2	2	2
Sonny Jurgensen	1957	5	Never	5	5	5	5
Len Dawson	1957	6	6	6	6	6	6
John Brodie	1957	5	14	9	2	5	5
Frank Ryan	1958	6	7	7	4	6	6
Fran Tarkenton	1961	1	13	4	1	1	1
John Hadl	1962	1	4	3	1	1	1
Roman Gabriel	1962	5	6	6	3	5	5
Daryle Lamonica	1963	5	5	3	5	5	5
Joe Namath	1965	2	4	1	1	1	1
Jim Hart	1966	2	9	9	2	2	2
Bob Griese	1967	1	4	1	1	1	1
Roger Staubach	1969	3	3	3	3	5	3
Terry Bradshaw	1970	2	3	6	6	2	2
Ken Stabler	1970	4	4	4	4	4	4
Jim Plunkett	1971	1	10	Never	1	1	1
Ken Anderson	1971	2	3	5	2	3	3
Archie Manning	1971	1	Never	7	6	2	2
Joe Ferguson	1973	1	2	Never	3	3	2
Bert Jones	1973	3	3	4	3	3	3
Dan Fouts	1973	2	7	7	6	4	4
Ron Jaworski	1974	4	2	7	6	4	4
Joe Theismann	1974	5	9	9	6	8	6
Steve Grogan	1975	2	2	Never	5	3	2
Steve Bartkowski	1975	1	4	6	6	6	6
Joe Montana	1979	3	3	3	2	3	4
Phil Simms	1979	1	5	6	8	5	5
Dave Krieg	1980	5	4	5	4	5	5
Dan Marino	1983	2	1	1	1	2	2
Ken O'Brien	1983	3	3	3	3	3	3
John Elway	1983	1	2	4	11	3	3
Boomer Esiason	1984	2	5	3	2	2	2
Warren Moon	1984	1	4	5	5	1	4
Bernie Kosar	1985	1	1	3	2	2	3
Randall Cunningham	1985	3	4	4	6	3	3
Steve Young	1985	2	8	8	7	8	7
Jim Kelly	1986	1	3	2	1	1	1
Jim Everett	1986	2	1	5	3	3	3
Rich Gannon	1987	4	13	12	12	12	12
Troy Aikman	1989	1	4	3	3	4	4
Brett Favre	1991	2	3	2	2	2	2
Drew Bledsoe	1993	1	2	2	4	2	1
Mark Brunell	1993	3	4	4	4	4	4
Steve McNair	1995	3	5	6	7	4	7
Jake Plummer	1997	2	2	9	7	2	8
Peyton Manning	1998	1	2	2	2	1	1
Kurt Warner	1998	2	2	2	2	2	2
Matt Hasselbeck	1998	4	6	6	5	6	6
Daunte Culpepper	1999	2	2	2	2	2	2
Jeff Garcia	1999	1	3	2	2	2	2
Donovan McNabb	1999	2	2	2	3	6	2
Tom Brady	2000	2	2	2	2	3	3
Chad Pennington	2000	3	3	Never	3	7	3
Drew Brees	2001	2	4	4	4	5	4
Michael Vick	2001	2	2	2	8	Never	6
Carson Palmer	2003	2	3	3	3	3	3
Tony Romo	2003	4	4	4	4	5	5
Ben Roethlisberger	2004	1	1	4	1	3	4
Eli Manning	2004	2	2	5	Never	2	2
Philip Rivers	2004	3	3	3	3	3	3
Matt Schaub	2004	4	Never	6	5	6	6
Aaron Rodgers	2005	4	5	5	4	4	4
Joe Flacco	2008	1	1	Never	3	Never	3
Matt Ryan	2008	1	1	3	Never	3	3

 
The results:

The last point is what we are going to look at, because that is what Kolb is trying to do along his quest to become a franchise quarterback in the NFL. The only four quarterbacks to fully bloom this late were Sonny Jurgensen, Len Dawson, George Blanda and Joe Theismann. All of those players started their careers before 1975.

 

SONNY JURGENSEN: Perhaps the best-case scenario for Kolb, Jurgensen was also drafted by the Eagles in 1957 in the fourth round (43rd overall). He backed up Bobby Thomason and Norm Van Brocklin for four years, and started only five games in that time. Finally, Jurgensen got his chance to start in 1961 and the gunslinger was born. Jurgensen led the league in completions, yards, and touchdowns as the Eagles went 10-4. Jurgensen was traded in 1964 to the Washington Redskins, where he continued to pile up big numbers, but for a lot of sub-.500 teams, as he threw his way into the Hall of Fame. He may have never started a playoff game, but Jurgensen was one of the finest passers of his era.

 

LEN DAWSON:The Pittsburgh Steelers used the fifth overall pick in the 1957 draft to select Dawson, a small quarterback out of Purdue. He never caught on (just one start), and was traded to Cleveland, where he again only started one game. After five years in the NFL, Dawson shifted gears to the AFL and immediately found success. In 1962 he led the Dallas Texans (now the Kansas City Chiefs) to the AFL championship, while leading the league in completion percentage, touchdowns, yards per attempt, and passer rating. Dawson would go on to become the best quarterback in the AFL, a Hall of Fame selection, and played until 1975 with the Chiefs. Kolb will not be able to join another league to jump start his career.  

 

GEORGE BLANDA: Perhaps better known as a kicker than a quarterback, Blanda played a NFL record 26 seasons from 1949 to 1975. He was just a 12th round pick in the 1949 draft by the Chicago Bears, and his career got off to a slow start thanks to his duties at kicker and linebacker. Blanda wouldn’t get a big opportunity at quarterback until his fifth season in 1953 when he led the league with 169 completions and 362 attempts. However, an injury in 1954 slowed down Blanda’s starting quarterback career, and he would not regain it until he also left for the AFL and joined the Houston Oilers, where he had great success initially. Once again, Kolb is not changing leagues and no one has asked him to do anything but be a quarterback.

 

JOE THEISMANN:Think you already know how this story goes? Theismann had a strong college career at Notre Dame, which led to him being inducted into the College Football Hall of Fame. Theismann was selected in the 4th round (99th overall) of the 1971 draft by the Miami Dolphins. Finding contract negotiations easier up north, Theismann joined the Canadian Football League and had a successful stint with the Toronto Argonauts before returning to the NFL in 1974 with the Redskins. He started his NFL career as a punt returner, and had to wait until his fifth season in the NFL in 1978 to take over as a full-time starter. Theismann’s career really took off when Washington brought in Joe Gibbs to be the head coach. Lawrence Taylor brought things to an end for Theismann with a nasty hit in 1985. It’s another case of a quarterback that spent time in another league, and was asked to play another position.

 

IN CONCLUSION
You have to be skeptical of Kevin Kolb’s prospects as a franchise quarterback. Andy Reid has proven he knows how to coach the position; he has helped Donovan McNabb, Jeff Garcia, A.J. Feeley and Michael Vick look as good as they have in Philadelphia. He also was the quarterback coach to Brett Favre in Green Bay during his MVP seasons. Reid knows the benefits of the modern passing game, which is why he throws it so much.
 
In 2007 JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn were drafted ahead of Kolb. Russell is out of football and quite possibly sitting on the couch right now with a tall glass of his sizzurp. We don’t even want to speculate what Brady Quinn has been up to. There is no magic rule that says a draft class has to have a good quarterback in it (see 1996).
 
Running back is the position best known for early success, but you have to look at quarterback becoming a position where you either show yourself early or it’s just not going to happen. Rich Gannon? That’s a great story, not a reasonable expectation of a career path.
 
The number of games may be small, but so far Kolb has shown to be reckless with the ball in not controlling his turnovers, and he has struggled to move the offense more often than not. The “Andy Reid Factor” has not benefited Kolb. If he should get worse without Reid, then Arizona, which is hoping for another Kurt Warner, is going to be very disappointed with the big contract they handed out. But they probably should have seen it coming.

After all, they’ve had four years.

By Kerry Byrne