Captain Comeback Week 7: The Tebow Zone
Cold, Hard Football Facts for Oct 25, 2011
By Scott Kacsmar
Cold, Hard Football Facts comeback king
If you thought last week marked the beginning of defense’s return to the NFL, then Week 7 continued the trend, as only three quarterbacks passed for 300 yards. Though with the futility on display in Cleveland and Jacksonville, perhaps it was simply a lousy week for offensive football. No matter which side you’re on, the end result were season-lows in games decided in the fourth quarter/overtime (3), fourth quarter comebacks (2), and games with a comeback opportunity (7). The Jets and Broncos made it 21 times this season a team won a game after trailing by at least 10 points.
When the story of the week was a game between two teams starting backup quarterbacks, that were a combined 1-9 entering the week, you know you were watching an unusual slate of games.
You are about to enter another dimension. A dimension of not only sight and weird Dan Dierdorf sounds, but of mind. It is a dimension as vast as the space required for “Drive of the Week”, and as timeless as one overtime session permits. A journey into a wondrous land whose boundaries are that of John Fox’s conservative game plans. That’s the signpost up ahead – your next stop, the Tebow Zone!
Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins
Type: 4QC/GWD
Largest Deficit: 15 (15-0)
Quarterback: Tim Tebow (2 4QC, 2 GWD – table)
You saw this coming, right?
Tim Tebow made his much-hyped debut as the starter for the 2011 Broncos, and he delivered yet another fourth quarter comeback that was equally mystifying and mesmerizing.
Tebow was given all the preparation as Denver’s starter following their bye week. With Urban Meyer in attendance as the Florida Gators were honored for their national championship, Tebow opened with a stinker. There was no accuracy, no third down conversions, no points, no resemblance of a NFL quarterback.
To make things worse, this was the same winless Miami defense that allowed 517 yards passing to Tom Brady and the Patriots in the season opener. Tebow had 40 yards passing in the first 54:37 of the game.
Finally, Tebow started hitting on sideline passes, passes down the middle, screens, and running for his life to pick up yardage. He threw two touchdowns, then ran for the two-point conversion to tie the game with 0:17 left.
In between touchdowns was maybe the biggest play of the game, as Miami fumbled the onside kick attempt, giving Tebow good field position. Tebow would get greater field position in overtime after a Matt Moore fumble, which set up Matt Prater for the 52-yard winning field goal.
About the only thing missing was a Tebow touchdown run in overtime a la Vince Young in Houston his rookie year. Speaking of Vince Young, the game-winning drive was much simpler than that. Some might even call it cheap, from an offensive statistic standpoint.
Unimpressive Game-Winning Drive Flashback: Did the ending feel familiar to Miami fans? It should have. On 12/20/2009, the Dolphins rallied back from a 24-9 deficit to force overtime against the Titans. Chad Henne threw an interception, which set Vince Young up at the MIA 27. After three handoffs to Chris Johnson lost a yard, they kicked the winning field goal, gift-wrapping a game-winning drive for Young.
This time it was a Matt Moore fumble that put the Broncos at the MIA 36, and three handoffs to Lance Ball gained two yards before the winning field goal was kicked. It’s probably not long before Tebow gets the Chuck Norris treatment, if it hasn’t already begun.
Lance Ball? Just let Tebow kneel down three times. Because even when Tim Tebow takes a knee, he still gains three yards.
It’s a difficult question to answer. How does a quarterback start 3/8 for 24 yards in the first three quarters, and then finish 10/19 for 137 yards and two touchdowns? Most of that damage came in the last five minutes, as Denver trailed 15-0
Nothing about it makes sense. Every once in a while a quarterback comes along that defies all logic by playing terrible for three quarters, then it’s as if he enters a phone booth and Clark Kent turns into Superman, and you get this type of finish. Dan Marino, Joe Montana, Peyton Manning, they didn’t play like that. Their comebacks were often just a result of lifting up their teams on days where things weren’t going right. Tebow was holding the Broncos back for most of this game.
Denver fans are familiar with it. Yes, even John Elway had many moments like this in his career. But there was actually another quarterback that suited up for Denver that fit this mold even better.
Jake Plummer started his reputation for pulling comebacks out of his ass when he was at Arizona State. This continued over in a big way in the NFL when he became the starter for the Arizona Cardinals. It even led to a playoff season and victory in 1998. Plummer posted a lot of ugly numbers in the desert, but he found a way to turn many games around and had 15 comebacks in his six seasons.
Plummer didn’t do it as often when he went to a better team in Denver, but that style of play was something he commonly showed throughout his career, which is what we’re seeing from Tebow.
Eli Manning even has some of this in him, as he’s no a stranger to starting games like Archie, and finishing like Peyton. Vinny Testaverde was doing similar things with the New York Jets, which was probably the most successful stop in his career.
It’s these types of performances that substantiate the thought that comebacks must all be like that, but if you’ve been following along this year or in the past, you know that’s not true. Tebow’s comeback was unlike anything else we’ve seen this year.
There is a place in the history books for this game, as the Broncos became the first team since the 1970 merger to win after trailing by 15 points in the last three minutes.
Now that does sound impressive, but keep in mind the two-point conversion wasn’t used in the NFL until 1994, and these kinds of stats also take liberties with the time the team had left. When the clock struck 3:00, Tebow was in the process of scrambling down to the Miami 5-yard line. The drive started with 5:23 left. For comparison, when the Colts trailed Tampa Bay 35-14 in 2003, they started their initial comeback drive with 4:54 left.
How about the place it holds in those contentious Denver record books?
Denver fans have rarely been able to experience comeback wins from a two-touchdown deficit in their team’s 52 seasons.
If some Denver fans huddled around the fireplace last Christmas to tell stories of historic fourth quarter comeback wins in their team’s history, they would have only needed one hand to count them on.
Enter Tim Tebow the following day against Houston, and that number has now reached 7. That’s only in four starts. Then look at how close he came to adding another one off the bench in Roger Staubach-fashion in the previous game against San Diego. In fact, there’s a stunning trend here.
Even Crazier Tebow Stat: Tebow has played 5 games in his career where he’s thrown at least 10 passes. In each game he has had a fourth quarter comeback opportunity. All five times, he turned a fourth quarter deficit of 10+ points into a one score deficit.
12/19/2010 at Oakland (L 39-23) – In his first career start, Tebow faced a 23-20 deficit to start the fourth quarter. His third down pass was incomplete, and the Raiders added a touchdown (30-20). Tebow led a field goal drive to cut the deficit to 30-23, but a safety after Correll Buckhalter was tackled in the end zone, plus another Oakland touchdown put the game out of reach at 39-23. Tebow went three and out on his last drive.
12/26/2010 vs. Houston (W 24-23) – Tebow had a 50.7 passer rating in the first half as Denver trailed 17-0 at halftime. Down 23-10 in the fourth quarter, Tebow rallied the Broncos with two touchdown drives for a 24-23 lead. He ran in the winning touchdown himself, while registering his first 300-yard passing game.
1/2/2011 vs. San Diego (L 33-28) – It was a tough first half (4/11 for 49 yards, TD, INT) and Denver faced a 26-14 deficit to start the fourth quarter. They would fall behind 33-14 before returning a kickoff for a touchdown (33-21). With 5:35 left, Tebow started going to work, but a failed conversion on fourth down ended the drive. Tebow only had 2:49 left, but led a 92-yard touchdown drive with 0:26 left. Denver recovered the onside kick (Tebow must have that Tedy Bruschi-like leadership that transcends to plays he’s not on the field for). Tebow had little time to work with, but did get two Hail Mary attempts off, and both were incomplete.
10/9/2011 vs. San Diego (L 29-24) – Tebow picked up where he left off in 2010; facing a 26-10 deficit in the fourth quarter against the Chargers. He was just 1/3 for 0 yards in the 3rd quarter after replacing Orton. But in the fourth with less than 9:00 left, he rushed for a 12-yard touchdown, then threw a 28-yard touchdown pass. His two-point conversion pass was incomplete however, and San Diego added a field goal (29-24). With very little time left (sound familiar?), Tebow’s last Hail Mary attempt, which he took forever to get off, fell incomplete in the end zone.
10/23/2011 at Miami (W 18-15 OT) – We already know what happened Sunday. Tebow overcame the late 15-0 deficit for the win in overtime.
This is not a coincidence. This is what you get with Tim Tebow, almost as if it’s by design. Why would anyone want to design a player that plays this ugly for such long stretches? No clue. Even when things are going well, it still can look ugly. But it’s also often exciting, and in the end, he makes things happen and gives you a chance to win.
Can Tebow actually do this successfully against better competition? We don’t know yet, but as long as Denver keeps giving him a chance, we should find out.
And it will be entertaining.
Cleveland Browns vs. Seattle Seahawks
Type: GWD
Quarterback: Colt McCoy (1 4QC, 2 GWD – table)
Only included for completion sake…
This was exactly the kind of day that the NFL RedZone channel was created for. When your only option is the Walrus Bowl, there’s no better way to spend three hours than watching RedZone and getting as little coverage of this game as possible. Give me Scott Hanson updating us on the number of touchdowns scored around the league over watching Montario Hardesty carry the ball any day.
The short version: There was little offense, little excitement, Phil Dawson had two short field goals blocked, but made two from 52+, including the game-winner early in the fourth quarter. There actually were two interesting stats from the game: Cleveland won time of possession 42:56 to 17:04, yet only scored 6 points. The Browns were also 12/24 on third down. That’s the most third down attempts in a game since 1991, which is the year the NFL finally started paying more attention to drive stats, other good numbers, and some teams adopted a nicer play-by-play format for their gamebooks.
It was an ugly game, which Cleveland fans should be used to seeing. Since Cleveland returned to the league in 1999, there have been 69 games where the winning team scored 10 points or less. Cleveland has played in 11 of them, most in the league, going just 4-7 in the process.
New York Jets vs. San Diego Chargers
Type: 4QC/GWD
Largest Deficit: 4 (21-17)
Quarterback: Mark Sanchez (7 4QC, 9 GWD – table)
For the second time this season the Jets overcame a deficit of 11+ points at home to win against a quality opponent. They’re 4-0 at home, but 0-3 on the road.
Up by four, Philip Rivers threw an interception. Mark Sanchez had a short field and threw a short, game-winning touchdown pass. That was the case in the 2009 AFC Divisional playoffs when the Jets went into San Diego and pulled off a shocking upset.
That time it was a bad pass by Rivers, and a 16-yard drive by the Jets. The former USC quarterback that took an unnecessary hit to his reputation by not leading comebacks against Oregon and Oregon State, was 0-5 in those situations his rookie season with the Jets. Then this turn of events happened, and Sanchez had his first NFL comeback win (and first AFC Championship appearance). He’s 6-5 at comebacks since that point, though he seems to have forgotten where it all started.
After the comeback over Houston last November, Sanchez remarked that "I've never had a comeback until this year, not once. Lost two in college. Lost them all last year. So this is the first time I've really done it.”
Sanchez should also be reminded that he actually did have one comeback in college, a 17-13 win over Arizona in 2007 that must have slipped his mind given it was a one-play drive with a touchdown pass to Fred Davis (now on the Redskins).
Rivers meanwhile is heading in the wrong direction, going 2-7 in comeback situations since that playoff loss, but more on him later. This time it wasn’t a bad pass by Rivers that was intercepted, just a bad play by Vincent Jackson. The ball ended up in newfound ballhawk Darrelle Revis’ hands, and Sanchez only had to drive 19 yards.
Sanchez threw his third touchdown pass of the day to Plaxico Burress, who had just 4 catches for 25 yards, giving him one of the more interesting stat lines in NFL history. Since 1960, only TE Mack Alston (3 catches for 22 yards) had fewer receiving yards in a game with 3 touchdown catches.
Needing only a field goal, Rivers threw another interception, this time being a bad pass that’s all on him. The Jets added a field goal, and Rivers was put into a difficult situation: 1:29 left, down by 6, no timeouts, 76 yards to go.
It wasn’t likely Rivers was going to be able to pull the drive off, especially after a sub-par day against the Jets defense. But it’s the way the drive ended that was puzzling.
You have one of the most vertical passers in NFL history, a big receiving corps, and he has led some successful two-minute drills in the past. Yet after an 18-yard completion to start the drive, Rivers was taking his time, there was no real hurry-up or tempo to the offense, and then he started throwing 3-yard passes.
It was the kind of clock management that would make Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb proud. The 3-yard completion was followed up with just a 4-yard completion, and quickly the Chargers were running out of time. After an incompletion, just 0:11 remained on the clock, and Rivers didn’t seem to be aware it was fourth down. If he was, surely there’d be no logic in throwing your last gasp out of bounds, right? Did he see Michigan State the other night? All that did was keep his streak alive of never throwing three interceptions in a game. But on fourth down, you have to go for it all.
Rivers hasn’t looked right all year (7 TD, 9 INT, 82.3 PR). He was largely unsuccessful in the fourth quarter last season, but was still putting up his usual great numbers overall. This season he has stats that are indistinguishable from Sanchez’s, a far cry from the MVP-caliber years he’s had since 2008.
The record is almost twice as bad, the stats are down, and the points/drive are down by more than a point. San Diego’s fortunes rest on his shoulders, and they can’t keep getting this kind of production in big spots. He’ll never get Romo-level criticism because he’s not playing for Dallas, but at some point the questions need to start coming out about Rivers, who is supposed to be an elite quarterback in this league.
Down 9-0 and trying to do his best Tebow impersonation, Flacco did lead a 90-yard touchdown drive. We liked this guy Jon Gruden’s decision to kick deep, get the touchback, save the two-minute warning, and use the two timeouts to get the ball back with plenty of time, decent field position, and only needing a field goal. Instead the Ravens tried the onside kick, it didn’t work, and Josh “I only make big 50-yard field goals” Scobee made his third kick from 50+ on the night to make it 12-7. Now Flacco needed an 80-yard touchdown drive, and he quickly ended that hope with an interception.
It may have been the upset of the season, though Baltimore has lost to Tennessee decisively as well, so who knows?
1st and 10 - As expected, the Cowboys ended their record streak of 11 straight games decided by 4 points or less with an easy 34-7 victory over the Rams. The previous 11 games were decided by a total of 30 points, so this 27-point win was a welcome relief, and means there was no Tony Romo saga continuation. What wasn’t expected was DeMarco Murray rushing for 253 yards. Even Emmitt Smith, the all-time leading rusher, never had a game like that.
2nd and 10 – The Steelers defense actually forced another takeaway, just their third of the season. It’s still not enough to prevent them from having the fewest takeaways of any team in the first 7 games of a season since 1940. The next closest team, the 1998 Redskins, started 0-7. The Steelers have managed a 5-2 record, but will be heavily tested with back-to-back games against the Patriots and Ravens.
And with that last gasp, which was not deflected to a Michigan State player, this one’s over.
Scott Kacsmar is a football researcher/writer who has contributed large quantities of data to Pro-Football-Reference.com, including the only standardized database of fourth quarter comebacks and game-winning drives. He’s afraid to put two feet into the Tebow Zone for fear of never returning. It’s a cookbook. You can send any questions or comments to Scott at smk_42@yahoo.com and you can follow him on Twitter at @CaptainComeback.
Cold, Hard Football Facts comeback king
If you thought last week marked the beginning of defense’s return to the NFL, then Week 7 continued the trend, as only three quarterbacks passed for 300 yards. Though with the futility on display in Cleveland and Jacksonville, perhaps it was simply a lousy week for offensive football. No matter which side you’re on, the end result were season-lows in games decided in the fourth quarter/overtime (3), fourth quarter comebacks (2), and games with a comeback opportunity (7). The Jets and Broncos made it 21 times this season a team won a game after trailing by at least 10 points.When the story of the week was a game between two teams starting backup quarterbacks, that were a combined 1-9 entering the week, you know you were watching an unusual slate of games.
You are about to enter another dimension. A dimension of not only sight and weird Dan Dierdorf sounds, but of mind. It is a dimension as vast as the space required for “Drive of the Week”, and as timeless as one overtime session permits. A journey into a wondrous land whose boundaries are that of John Fox’s conservative game plans. That’s the signpost up ahead – your next stop, the Tebow Zone!
Drive of the Week
Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins
Winner: Denver (18-15 OT)
Type: 4QC/GWDLargest Deficit: 15 (15-0)
Quarterback: Tim Tebow (2 4QC, 2 GWD – table)
You saw this coming, right?
Tim Tebow made his much-hyped debut as the starter for the 2011 Broncos, and he delivered yet another fourth quarter comeback that was equally mystifying and mesmerizing.
Tebow was given all the preparation as Denver’s starter following their bye week. With Urban Meyer in attendance as the Florida Gators were honored for their national championship, Tebow opened with a stinker. There was no accuracy, no third down conversions, no points, no resemblance of a NFL quarterback.
To make things worse, this was the same winless Miami defense that allowed 517 yards passing to Tom Brady and the Patriots in the season opener. Tebow had 40 yards passing in the first 54:37 of the game.
Finally, Tebow started hitting on sideline passes, passes down the middle, screens, and running for his life to pick up yardage. He threw two touchdowns, then ran for the two-point conversion to tie the game with 0:17 left.
In between touchdowns was maybe the biggest play of the game, as Miami fumbled the onside kick attempt, giving Tebow good field position. Tebow would get greater field position in overtime after a Matt Moore fumble, which set up Matt Prater for the 52-yard winning field goal.
About the only thing missing was a Tebow touchdown run in overtime a la Vince Young in Houston his rookie year. Speaking of Vince Young, the game-winning drive was much simpler than that. Some might even call it cheap, from an offensive statistic standpoint.
Unimpressive Game-Winning Drive Flashback: Did the ending feel familiar to Miami fans? It should have. On 12/20/2009, the Dolphins rallied back from a 24-9 deficit to force overtime against the Titans. Chad Henne threw an interception, which set Vince Young up at the MIA 27. After three handoffs to Chris Johnson lost a yard, they kicked the winning field goal, gift-wrapping a game-winning drive for Young.
This time it was a Matt Moore fumble that put the Broncos at the MIA 36, and three handoffs to Lance Ball gained two yards before the winning field goal was kicked. It’s probably not long before Tebow gets the Chuck Norris treatment, if it hasn’t already begun.
Lance Ball? Just let Tebow kneel down three times. Because even when Tim Tebow takes a knee, he still gains three yards.
Pulling Comebacks Out of Your…
Denver fans love their comebacks, because they love John Elway. A big criticism of Kyle Orton was his inability to lead them after Denver’s 6-0 start crashed and burn in 2009. Now that they have Tebow, the question is how long will they be able to stomach watching him look like present-day Kathleen Turner for three quarters, then changing into Body Heat-era Kathleen Turner in the fourth?It’s a difficult question to answer. How does a quarterback start 3/8 for 24 yards in the first three quarters, and then finish 10/19 for 137 yards and two touchdowns? Most of that damage came in the last five minutes, as Denver trailed 15-0
Nothing about it makes sense. Every once in a while a quarterback comes along that defies all logic by playing terrible for three quarters, then it’s as if he enters a phone booth and Clark Kent turns into Superman, and you get this type of finish. Dan Marino, Joe Montana, Peyton Manning, they didn’t play like that. Their comebacks were often just a result of lifting up their teams on days where things weren’t going right. Tebow was holding the Broncos back for most of this game.
Denver fans are familiar with it. Yes, even John Elway had many moments like this in his career. But there was actually another quarterback that suited up for Denver that fit this mold even better.
Jake Plummer started his reputation for pulling comebacks out of his ass when he was at Arizona State. This continued over in a big way in the NFL when he became the starter for the Arizona Cardinals. It even led to a playoff season and victory in 1998. Plummer posted a lot of ugly numbers in the desert, but he found a way to turn many games around and had 15 comebacks in his six seasons.
Plummer didn’t do it as often when he went to a better team in Denver, but that style of play was something he commonly showed throughout his career, which is what we’re seeing from Tebow.
Eli Manning even has some of this in him, as he’s no a stranger to starting games like Archie, and finishing like Peyton. Vinny Testaverde was doing similar things with the New York Jets, which was probably the most successful stop in his career.
It’s these types of performances that substantiate the thought that comebacks must all be like that, but if you’ve been following along this year or in the past, you know that’s not true. Tebow’s comeback was unlike anything else we’ve seen this year.
There is a place in the history books for this game, as the Broncos became the first team since the 1970 merger to win after trailing by 15 points in the last three minutes.
Now that does sound impressive, but keep in mind the two-point conversion wasn’t used in the NFL until 1994, and these kinds of stats also take liberties with the time the team had left. When the clock struck 3:00, Tebow was in the process of scrambling down to the Miami 5-yard line. The drive started with 5:23 left. For comparison, when the Colts trailed Tampa Bay 35-14 in 2003, they started their initial comeback drive with 4:54 left.
How about the place it holds in those contentious Denver record books?
Tebow Matches John Elway in Four Starts
As the Cold, Hard Football Facts’ “Potentate of Pigskin” Kerry Byrne first explained to you on Sunday, Tebow picked up his second career comeback win from a 13+ point deficit in the fourth quarter in just his fourth start. John Elway played 16 years in the NFL and only had two comebacks from that deficit in the fourth quarter. It took Elway 18 starts before he made his second fourth quarter comeback win from any deficit.Denver fans have rarely been able to experience comeback wins from a two-touchdown deficit in their team’s 52 seasons.
| QB | Date | Opponent | Down | Pts | 4th QT/OT Stats | Final |
| John Elway | 12/11/1983 | Colts | 19-0 | 19 | 8/18 for 128 yards, 3 TD | 21-19 |
| Gary Kubiak | 10/28/1984 | at Raiders | 19-6 | 13 | 9/13 for 80 yards, 2 TD | 22-19 OT |
| John Elway (2) | 10/4/1992 | Chiefs | 19-6 | 13 | 11/16 for 112 yards, 2 TD, fumble | 20-19 |
| Gus Frerotte | 11/19/2000 | Chargers | 34-17 | 17 | 11/16 for 167 yards, 3 TD, INT | 38-37 |
| Brian Griese | 10/20/2002 | at Chiefs | 34-20 | 14 | 15/23 for 158 yards, TD | 37-34 OT |
| Tim Tebow | 12/26/2010 | Texans | 23-10 | 13 | 5/10 for 86 yards, TD, 28 rush yards, TD | 24-23 |
| Tim Tebow (2) | 10/23/2011 | at Miami | 15-0 | 15 | 10/19 for 137 yards, 2 TD, 17 rush yards, 2-pt run | 18-15 OT |
If some Denver fans huddled around the fireplace last Christmas to tell stories of historic fourth quarter comeback wins in their team’s history, they would have only needed one hand to count them on.
Enter Tim Tebow the following day against Houston, and that number has now reached 7. That’s only in four starts. Then look at how close he came to adding another one off the bench in Roger Staubach-fashion in the previous game against San Diego. In fact, there’s a stunning trend here.
Even Crazier Tebow Stat: Tebow has played 5 games in his career where he’s thrown at least 10 passes. In each game he has had a fourth quarter comeback opportunity. All five times, he turned a fourth quarter deficit of 10+ points into a one score deficit.
12/19/2010 at Oakland (L 39-23) – In his first career start, Tebow faced a 23-20 deficit to start the fourth quarter. His third down pass was incomplete, and the Raiders added a touchdown (30-20). Tebow led a field goal drive to cut the deficit to 30-23, but a safety after Correll Buckhalter was tackled in the end zone, plus another Oakland touchdown put the game out of reach at 39-23. Tebow went three and out on his last drive.
12/26/2010 vs. Houston (W 24-23) – Tebow had a 50.7 passer rating in the first half as Denver trailed 17-0 at halftime. Down 23-10 in the fourth quarter, Tebow rallied the Broncos with two touchdown drives for a 24-23 lead. He ran in the winning touchdown himself, while registering his first 300-yard passing game.
1/2/2011 vs. San Diego (L 33-28) – It was a tough first half (4/11 for 49 yards, TD, INT) and Denver faced a 26-14 deficit to start the fourth quarter. They would fall behind 33-14 before returning a kickoff for a touchdown (33-21). With 5:35 left, Tebow started going to work, but a failed conversion on fourth down ended the drive. Tebow only had 2:49 left, but led a 92-yard touchdown drive with 0:26 left. Denver recovered the onside kick (Tebow must have that Tedy Bruschi-like leadership that transcends to plays he’s not on the field for). Tebow had little time to work with, but did get two Hail Mary attempts off, and both were incomplete.
10/9/2011 vs. San Diego (L 29-24) – Tebow picked up where he left off in 2010; facing a 26-10 deficit in the fourth quarter against the Chargers. He was just 1/3 for 0 yards in the 3rd quarter after replacing Orton. But in the fourth with less than 9:00 left, he rushed for a 12-yard touchdown, then threw a 28-yard touchdown pass. His two-point conversion pass was incomplete however, and San Diego added a field goal (29-24). With very little time left (sound familiar?), Tebow’s last Hail Mary attempt, which he took forever to get off, fell incomplete in the end zone.
10/23/2011 at Miami (W 18-15 OT) – We already know what happened Sunday. Tebow overcame the late 15-0 deficit for the win in overtime.
This is not a coincidence. This is what you get with Tim Tebow, almost as if it’s by design. Why would anyone want to design a player that plays this ugly for such long stretches? No clue. Even when things are going well, it still can look ugly. But it’s also often exciting, and in the end, he makes things happen and gives you a chance to win.
Can Tebow actually do this successfully against better competition? We don’t know yet, but as long as Denver keeps giving him a chance, we should find out.
And it will be entertaining.
The Other Paths to Victory
Cleveland Browns vs. Seattle Seahawks
Winner: Cleveland (6-3)
Type: GWDQuarterback: Colt McCoy (1 4QC, 2 GWD – table)
Only included for completion sake…
This was exactly the kind of day that the NFL RedZone channel was created for. When your only option is the Walrus Bowl, there’s no better way to spend three hours than watching RedZone and getting as little coverage of this game as possible. Give me Scott Hanson updating us on the number of touchdowns scored around the league over watching Montario Hardesty carry the ball any day.
The short version: There was little offense, little excitement, Phil Dawson had two short field goals blocked, but made two from 52+, including the game-winner early in the fourth quarter. There actually were two interesting stats from the game: Cleveland won time of possession 42:56 to 17:04, yet only scored 6 points. The Browns were also 12/24 on third down. That’s the most third down attempts in a game since 1991, which is the year the NFL finally started paying more attention to drive stats, other good numbers, and some teams adopted a nicer play-by-play format for their gamebooks.
It was an ugly game, which Cleveland fans should be used to seeing. Since Cleveland returned to the league in 1999, there have been 69 games where the winning team scored 10 points or less. Cleveland has played in 11 of them, most in the league, going just 4-7 in the process.
New York Jets vs. San Diego Chargers
Winner: NY Jets (27-21)
Type: 4QC/GWDLargest Deficit: 4 (21-17)
Quarterback: Mark Sanchez (7 4QC, 9 GWD – table)
For the second time this season the Jets overcame a deficit of 11+ points at home to win against a quality opponent. They’re 4-0 at home, but 0-3 on the road.
Up by four, Philip Rivers threw an interception. Mark Sanchez had a short field and threw a short, game-winning touchdown pass. That was the case in the 2009 AFC Divisional playoffs when the Jets went into San Diego and pulled off a shocking upset.
That time it was a bad pass by Rivers, and a 16-yard drive by the Jets. The former USC quarterback that took an unnecessary hit to his reputation by not leading comebacks against Oregon and Oregon State, was 0-5 in those situations his rookie season with the Jets. Then this turn of events happened, and Sanchez had his first NFL comeback win (and first AFC Championship appearance). He’s 6-5 at comebacks since that point, though he seems to have forgotten where it all started.
After the comeback over Houston last November, Sanchez remarked that "I've never had a comeback until this year, not once. Lost two in college. Lost them all last year. So this is the first time I've really done it.”
Sanchez should also be reminded that he actually did have one comeback in college, a 17-13 win over Arizona in 2007 that must have slipped his mind given it was a one-play drive with a touchdown pass to Fred Davis (now on the Redskins).
Rivers meanwhile is heading in the wrong direction, going 2-7 in comeback situations since that playoff loss, but more on him later. This time it wasn’t a bad pass by Rivers that was intercepted, just a bad play by Vincent Jackson. The ball ended up in newfound ballhawk Darrelle Revis’ hands, and Sanchez only had to drive 19 yards.
Sanchez threw his third touchdown pass of the day to Plaxico Burress, who had just 4 catches for 25 yards, giving him one of the more interesting stat lines in NFL history. Since 1960, only TE Mack Alston (3 catches for 22 yards) had fewer receiving yards in a game with 3 touchdown catches.
Needing only a field goal, Rivers threw another interception, this time being a bad pass that’s all on him. The Jets added a field goal, and Rivers was put into a difficult situation: 1:29 left, down by 6, no timeouts, 76 yards to go.
It wasn’t likely Rivers was going to be able to pull the drive off, especially after a sub-par day against the Jets defense. But it’s the way the drive ended that was puzzling.
You have one of the most vertical passers in NFL history, a big receiving corps, and he has led some successful two-minute drills in the past. Yet after an 18-yard completion to start the drive, Rivers was taking his time, there was no real hurry-up or tempo to the offense, and then he started throwing 3-yard passes.
It was the kind of clock management that would make Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb proud. The 3-yard completion was followed up with just a 4-yard completion, and quickly the Chargers were running out of time. After an incompletion, just 0:11 remained on the clock, and Rivers didn’t seem to be aware it was fourth down. If he was, surely there’d be no logic in throwing your last gasp out of bounds, right? Did he see Michigan State the other night? All that did was keep his streak alive of never throwing three interceptions in a game. But on fourth down, you have to go for it all.
Rivers hasn’t looked right all year (7 TD, 9 INT, 82.3 PR). He was largely unsuccessful in the fourth quarter last season, but was still putting up his usual great numbers overall. This season he has stats that are indistinguishable from Sanchez’s, a far cry from the MVP-caliber years he’s had since 2008.
| Years | Games | Record | Att. | Comp. | Pct. | Yds | TD | INT | Rating | Fum | Pts/Dr |
| 2006-09 | 32 | 14-18 | 223 | 128 | 57.4 | 1586 | 11 | 7 | 82.9 | 1 | 2.60 |
| 2010-11 | 9 | 2-7 | 80 | 49 | 61.3 | 573 | 3 | 4 | 74.6 | 1 | 1.53 |
The record is almost twice as bad, the stats are down, and the points/drive are down by more than a point. San Diego’s fortunes rest on his shoulders, and they can’t keep getting this kind of production in big spots. He’ll never get Romo-level criticism because he’s not playing for Dallas, but at some point the questions need to start coming out about Rivers, who is supposed to be an elite quarterback in this league.
Top Comeback Failures of the Week
There was a trio of late-game rallies that didn’t go according to plan. The Carolina Panthers actually aren’t featured for the first time this season, as Cam Newton played his most efficient game yet and they didn’t have to come back this time.The Comeback Queen Is Dead
Josh Freeman took his comeback talents to London this week, but the results weren’t there in the end. Almost on cue, the Bucs trailed Chicago by the rare 21-5 score in the fourth quarter. Freeman led two touchdown drives, but the Bears took time off the clock and made it a 24-18 deficit. Freeman was in position for what may have been the greatest of his late-game drives, having to go 72 yards in the last 1:50. But once he got to the Chicago 39, Freeman threw three straight incompletions, the last being his fourth interception of the game. With both teams at 4-3 and probably looking for Wild Cards, this could be a haunting loss.Lions Just Being The Lions
It doesn’t take much for a 5-0 team to lose their shine after a few losses (see: 2003 Vikings, 2009 Broncos). Detroit had three possessions in the fourth quarter, trailing by one score, and they managed just 54 yards and two first downs in the quarter. And now they have to go enter the Tebow Zone. Expect to hear about them next week.The Jaguar Ate The Raven
If Seattle/Cleveland didn’t set offensive football back 80 years, the Monday night game between Baltimore and Jacksonville sure did. The Ravens managed nine straight possessions in the first half without a single first down. The teams combined to go 4/28 on third down. Joe Flacco completed the most worthless pass in NFL history: a -8 yard play on 3rd and 35 after his pass was deflected back to himself. At least he’s found a receiver he can complete a high percentage of passes to.Down 9-0 and trying to do his best Tebow impersonation, Flacco did lead a 90-yard touchdown drive. We liked this guy Jon Gruden’s decision to kick deep, get the touchback, save the two-minute warning, and use the two timeouts to get the ball back with plenty of time, decent field position, and only needing a field goal. Instead the Ravens tried the onside kick, it didn’t work, and Josh “I only make big 50-yard field goals” Scobee made his third kick from 50+ on the night to make it 12-7. Now Flacco needed an 80-yard touchdown drive, and he quickly ended that hope with an interception.
It may have been the upset of the season, though Baltimore has lost to Tennessee decisively as well, so who knows?
Hurry-Up Offense
A quick look at some of the other statistical trends the Captain has been tracking this season.1st and 10 - As expected, the Cowboys ended their record streak of 11 straight games decided by 4 points or less with an easy 34-7 victory over the Rams. The previous 11 games were decided by a total of 30 points, so this 27-point win was a welcome relief, and means there was no Tony Romo saga continuation. What wasn’t expected was DeMarco Murray rushing for 253 yards. Even Emmitt Smith, the all-time leading rusher, never had a game like that.
2nd and 10 – The Steelers defense actually forced another takeaway, just their third of the season. It’s still not enough to prevent them from having the fewest takeaways of any team in the first 7 games of a season since 1940. The next closest team, the 1998 Redskins, started 0-7. The Steelers have managed a 5-2 record, but will be heavily tested with back-to-back games against the Patriots and Ravens.
Dan Dierdorf’s Expert Analysis on the Colts
3rd and 10 – Last week we talked about the Colts and their inability to win all these close games. With the schedule getting harder, it was evident that the blowouts would be returning, and they had to hit rock bottom on Sunday night in New Orleans. Peyton Manning and Dan Marino have been compared a lot in their careers. Now they both can say they’ve been down on the sideline for a 62-7 disaster on national television. We’ll just let Dan Dierdorf share his expert analysis on the state of the Colts.Green Bay Packers Tie Historic Winning Streak
4th and 10 – A few weeks ago it looked like a record well within reach, and the Packers came through. In the 92-year history of the NFL, only the 1942-43 Redskins and 2010-11 Packers have won 13 straight games without trailing in the fourth quarter. For the 8th time during the streak, the Green Bay defense needed to hold a one score lead in the fourth quarter. Down 33-27, rookie Christian Ponder, making his first start, was able to complete two third-and-longs, but he threw three straight incompletions after that. Minnesota punted, and the Packers used their running game to run out the clock. The Packers have a bye week, and then it’s off to San Diego to take on a bamboozling Chargers team in their attempt to set the all-time record at 14 games.And with that last gasp, which was not deflected to a Michigan State player, this one’s over.
Scott Kacsmar is a football researcher/writer who has contributed large quantities of data to Pro-Football-Reference.com, including the only standardized database of fourth quarter comebacks and game-winning drives. He’s afraid to put two feet into the Tebow Zone for fear of never returning. It’s a cookbook. You can send any questions or comments to Scott at smk_42@yahoo.com and you can follow him on Twitter at @CaptainComeback.
Read more: Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos, Fourth Quarter Comebacks, Game-Winning Drives, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, John Elway, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, NFL, Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers, Seattle Seahawks, Tim Tebow
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