Cam Newton, Andy Dalton and the Myth of the QB Sophomore Slump

One of the debates this summer is whether or not second-year quarterbacks Cam Newton and Andy Dalton will suffer a sophomore slump after their rookie success.

CBS Sports’ Pete Prisco has been all over the angle, but nowhere to be found was any strong historical analysis that proves if the quarterback sophomore slump is real, or just another myth that generates discussion in the dog days of the NFL year.

After seeing another CBS article botch the topic by incorrectly including Marc Bulger, it was time for the Cold, Hard Football Facts to intervene with a Super Study to set the record straight.

As you will see, the research process was difficult, but we emerged with the definitive proof that the quarterback sophomore slump is a myth.

Oh it used to be real, but that was over 30 years ago.

That text is bolder than the claim itself. Just hearing the words “sophomore slump” for a quarterback should sound like a fallacy to fans when the few players that have actually been good right away came back with another great season.

Who can forget sophomore Dan Marino having one of the greatest seasons in NFL history in 1984, or Ben Roethlisberger becoming the youngest quarterback to win a Super Bowl in 2005?

What slump?

It may not come as a surprise, but the history of rookie quarterbacks and sophomore slumps falls under murky territory with strict rules for what actually counts as a NFL rookie season, and shaky research that includes some players that were not even rookies or sophomores in the years others have studied.

We worked it all out, and also will offer the much needed historical context for how rookie quarterback success has been so rare, yet so abundant in just the last few years.

 

Framing the QB Sophomore Slump

At its crux, the sophomore slump is a trap term. For a player to avoid it, they have to be really good. The problem is they had to be good in the first place to even suggest the idea they could suffer a sophomore slump.

You can’t fall without first getting up.

Do you see anyone predicting a sophomore slump for 2011 rookies like Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder? No. Those players struggled last year, and will just be hoping for job security as they try to improve this season.

Also, no one talks about a sophomore slump for Tennessee’s Jake Locker, because he did not play enough last season (no starts and 66 pass attempts). We are still waiting to see how good he is.

If the sophomore slump is for the player that did something positive as a rookie, then we must study the right players to see if it is real or not.

 

The Initial Dataset

Getting the right data was much harder than you might have expected. We will detail the process step by step.

First, the cutoff season was 1950, which is often a good cutoff year since it somewhat signifies the end of the two-way player era, and is when the AAFC disbanded and the NFL absorbed a few new teams (Cleveland, San Francisco).

With respect to Sammy Baugh (1937) and Bob Waterfield (1945), who won championships as rookies, the pre-1950 era resembles the dark ages for the forward pass.

An honorable mention to Charlie Conerly for his excellent rookie season in 1948 for the New York Giants when he threw 22 touchdowns, which is still second in NFL history by a rookie, only trailing Peyton Manning’s 26.

His 1949 season was not nearly as successful.

A minimum of five starts and 100 pass attempts were chosen for no real reason other than they are nice, round figures that should accomplish the goal of using rookies with some type of success on a big enough sample size.

This would eliminate a player like Mike Kruczek, who kept the seat warm for injured Terry Bradshaw on the 1976 Pittsburgh Steelers. Kruczek went 6-0 as a starter to set a NFL rookie record for consecutive wins that would be broken by Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger, but Kruczek only threw 85 passes.

That is not the type of quarterback you would want to study for a sophomore slump anyway. Bradshaw was the starter of choice.

Using the Pro-Football-Reference Play Index, we were able to search for rookie quarterbacks that met the specific requirements.

Warning: Searching for rookies on PFR is actually searching for players in the first season they saw regular season action. If a player sat on the bench his entire rookie season like a Carson Palmer (2003) or Marc Bulger (2001), then they will not show up in the results with the correct rookie season. Instead you will get 2004 for Palmer and 2002 for Bulger.

This returned 143 results, which was then filtered down by removing all the players that had rookie seasons that involved a lot of clipboard holding and no game appearances.

That gave us an initial sample of 127 “rookie” quarterbacks since 1950 with at least five starts and 100 pass attempts.

 

Active Sophomore QB’s

Since they are just entering their sophomore season, these five quarterbacks were excluded from the study.

Quarterback	Year	Team	GP	GS	Record	Att.	Comp.	Pct.	Yards	TD	INT	PR
Cam Newton	2011	CAR	16	16	6-10	517	310	60.0	4051	21	17	84.5
Andy Dalton	2011	CIN	16	16	9-7	516	300	58.1	3398	20	13	80.4
Blaine Gabbert	2011	JAX	15	14	4-10	413	210	50.8	2214	12	11	65.4
Christian Ponder	2011	MIN	11	10	2-8	291	158	54.3	1853	13	13	70.1
T.J. Yates	2011	HOU	6	5	2-3	134	82	61.2	949	3	3	80.7

 

Newton and Dalton are the big focus for this year, but even Yates would fit the bill for someone that played well enough to expect a slump from. However, Matt Schaub is back and Yates should only be the backup.

Gabbert and Ponder must first improve before anyone thinks about them declining further.

 

The Sub-50.0 Rookies

There were 25 quarterbacks with a passer rating under 50.0 as a rookie, which is well below league average, even when going back to several years before the 1970 merger. It would be nearly impossible for these players to “slump” any lower. Forget raising the bar. Some just left it on the floor that first season.

Here is your “Terrible 25”, which includes two Hall of Famers and two other league MVP winners. Notice only Ryan Leaf (1998) and Alex Smith (2005) appear from the Live-Ball era (post-1978). Only Joe Ferguson (9-5) had more than four wins (thanks to the most run-heavy offense since 1970), and Jack Scarbath (4-3) was the only other player with a winning record.

 

Quarterback	Year	Team	GP	GS	Record	Att.	Comp.	Pct.	Yards	TD	INT	PR
Alex Smith	2005	SF	9	7	2-5	165	84	50.9	875	1	11	40.8
Ryan Leaf	1998	SD	10	9	3-6	245	111	45.3	1289	2	15	39.0
Joe Pisarcik	1977	NYG	13	11	4-7	241	103	42.7	1346	4	14	42.3
David Whitehurst	1977	GB	7	5	2-3	105	50	47.6	634	1	7	42.3
Jim Zorn	1976	SEA	14	14	2-12	439	208	47.4	2571	12	27	49.5
Richard Todd	1976	NYJ	13	6	2-4	162	65	40.1	870	3	12	33.2
Brian Sipe	1974	CLE	10	5	2-3	108	59	54.6	603	1	7	47.0
Dan Fouts	1973	SD	10	6	0-5-1	194	87	44.8	1126	6	13	46.0
Joe Ferguson	1973	BUF	14	14	9-5	164	73	44.5	939	4	10	45.8
Bert Jones	1973	CLT	8	5	1-4	108	43	39.8	539	4	12	28.8
Scott Hunter	1971	GB	13	10	4-5-1	163	75	46.0	1210	7	17	46.1
Dan Pastorini	1971	HOU	14	8	4-4	270	127	47.0	1702	7	21	43.8
Terry Bradshaw	1970	PIT	13	8	3-5	218	83	38.1	1410	6	24	30.4
Terry Hanratty	1969	PIT	8	5	0-5	126	52	41.3	716	8	13	41.7
Tom Sherman	1968	BOS	14	7	1-6	226	90	39.8	1199	12	16	45.6
Dan Darragh	1968	BUF	11	7	1-6	215	92	42.8	917	3	14	33.0
Kent Nix	1967	PIT	12	9	3-6	268	136	50.7	1587	8	19	49.5
Joe Kapp	1967	MIN	13	11	3-5-3	214	102	47.7	1386	8	17	48.2
Max Choboian	1966	DEN	14	7	3-4	163	82	50.3	1110	4	12	49.9
Randy Johnson	1966	ATL	14	11	3-8	295	129	43.7	1795	12	21	47.8
George Wilson	1966	MIA	14	7	2-5	112	46	41.1	764	5	10	42.4
John Hadl	1962	SD	14	10	1-9	260	107	41.2	1632	15	24	43.3
Lamar McHan	1954	CRD	12	11	1-10	255	105	41.2	1475	6	22	32.4
Jack Scarbath	1953	WAS	12	7	4-3	129	45	34.9	862	9	12	43.5
Tobin Rote	1950	GB	12	12	3-9	224	83	37.1	1231	7	24	26.7

 

Did these players get better in year two as sophomores? Of course most did. Hard not to in these 25 scenarios. If they did not shape up, then they shipped out.

Such was the case of George Wilson on the expansion Miami Dolphins. Even with his dad coaching the team, Wilson was one-and-done after a tough 1966 season.

The AFL had a few bad apples. Max Choboian was one-and-done in Denver after 1964. Dan Darragh had a rotten three-year career with the Bills, and Tom Sherman was shipped from Boston to Buffalo during his second season in 1969. He would only throw two more passes in his career.

Citing the second-year improvement of the other quarterbacks here would be useless, as they were never in a position to be good enough to slump.

As a society we tend to reward the most minimal of achievement, but that will not happen at the Cold, Hard Football Facts. These 25 were excluded from the main study.

 

Other Exclusions

We know we wanted a minimum of five starts and 100 pass attempts. We did not want the most brutal of passing seasons. But there were still various restrictions, which eliminated 30 more quarterbacks, and they are the following batch:

 

Quarterback	Year	Team	GP	GS	Record	Att.	Comp.	Pct.	Yards	TD	INT	PR
Jimmy Clausen	2010	CAR	13	10	1-9	299	157	52.5	1558	3	9	58.4
Matthew Stafford	2009	DET	10	10	2-8	377	201	53.3	2267	13	20	61.0
Bruce Gradkowski	2006	TB	13	11	3-8	328	177	54.0	1661	9	9	65.9
Kyle Orton	2005	CHI	15	15	10-5	368	190	51.6	1869	9	13	59.7
Craig Krenzel	2004	CHI	6	5	3-2	127	59	46.5	718	3	6	52.5
Chad Hutchinson	2002	DAL	9	9	2-7	250	127	50.8	1555	7	8	66.3
Chris Weinke	2001	CAR	15	15	1-14	540	293	54.3	2931	11	19	62.0
Jeff Garcia	1999	SF	13	10	2-8	375	225	60.0	2544	11	11	77.9
Tom Hodson	1990	NE	7	6	0-6	156	85	54.5	968	4	5	68.5
Kelly Stouffer	1988	SEA	8	6	3-3	173	98	56.6	1106	4	6	69.2
Chris Chandler	1988	IND	15	13	9-4	233	129	55.4	1619	8	12	67.2
Jim Kelly	1986	BUF	16	16	4-12	480	285	59.4	3593	22	17	83.3
Dieter Brock	1985	RAM	15	15	11-4	365	218	59.7	2658	16	13	82.0
Bobby Hebert	1985	NO	6	6	2-4	181	97	53.6	1208	5	4	74.6
Warren Moon	1984	HOU	16	16	3-13	450	259	57.6	3338	12	14	76.9
Jeff Komlo	1979	DET	16	14	2-12	368	183	49.7	2238	11	23	52.8
Pat Haden	1976	RAM	10	7	5-1-1	105	60	57.1	896	8	4	94.8
Tom Owen	1974	SF	10	7	4-3	184	88	47.8	1327	10	15	56.1
John Reaves	1972	PHI	11	7	0-7	224	108	48.2	1508	7	12	58.4
Bobby Douglass	1969	CHI	11	7	1-6	148	68	45.9	773	5	8	50.9
Greg Cook	1969	CIN	11	11	4-6-1	197	106	53.8	1854	15	11	88.3
Marlin Briscoe	1968	DEN	11	5	2-3	224	93	41.5	1589	14	13	62.9
Virgil Carter	1968	CHI	7	5	4-1	122	55	45.1	769	4	5	59.8
Norm Snead	1961	WAS	14	14	1-12-1	375	172	45.9	2337	11	22	51.6
Butch Songin	1960	BOS	14	12	4-8	392	187	47.7	2476	22	15	70.9
George Shaw	1955	CLT	12	12	5-6-1	237	119	50.2	1586	10	19	52.5
Zeke Bratkowski	1954	CHI	12	5	4-1	130	67	51.5	1087	8	17	60.8
Al Dorow	1954	WAS	11	5	2-3	138	70	50.7	997	8	17	54.2
Jim Root	1953	CRD	11	6	0-5-1	192	80	41.7	1149	8	11	51.8
Bob Celeri	1951	NYY	11	8	1-6-1	238	102	42.9	1797	12	15	59.8

 

There are several reasons for excluding these quarterbacks.

Lack of sophomore sample size: Many did not play enough the following season (less than 100 attempts), so it was hard to really judge their sophomore season in comparison to the rookie year.

Not playing enough does not mean a direct sign of a slump, as in many cases the player either was injured (Matthew Stafford in 2010, Chris Chandler in 1989), or he was never intended to be the guy in the first place as a rookie (Bruce Gradkowski, Kyle Orton, Craig Krenzel, etc.).

Denver’s Marlin Briscoe was cut and moved from a quarterback to a wide receiver on Buffalo for his second season.

How did Johnny Unitas become a legend for the Baltimore Colts? George Shaw, the No. 1 overall pick in the 1955 draft, was injured in his second season. Unitas was very impressive as a rookie in Shaw’s place, and like that, history was rewritten. The Colts would trade Shaw in 1959 to the New York Giants.

There is also the awkward case of Dieter Brock. If you thought Cleveland’s Brandon Weeden (28) was old for a rookie, look at the 34-year-old Brock on the 1985 Los Angeles Rams after coming over from the CFL.

Brock had good numbers, including 2,658 yards, 16 TD, 13 INT, 82.0 passer rating, all while leading the Rams to an 11-4 record and NFC Championship appearance.

And like that, he was gone. Retired from football, Brock never had a sophomore season in the NFL.

If you are talking about Cam Newton, then consider that twice Carolina had to move on from a bad season with a rookie. First it was Chris Weinke in 2001, and of course Jimmy Clausen in 2010, which led to Carolina drafting Newton first overall in 2011. Clausen never saw the field last season, thus no sophomore season to speak of.

Speaking of Clausen, some of these 28 players fall under the “too terrible to slump” category. For example, Norm Snead was the lowest-rated passer (51.6) in the NFL in 1961. The only reason they were not included in the previous section was they had a passer rating higher than 50.0.

Player must have had consecutive seasons of play: Zeke Bratkowski was a rookie in 1954 for Chicago, but then spent the next two years in the Air Force before returning to the Bears in 1957. That is very admirable, but it takes him out of the study for the sophomore slump.

Jim Root’s only two NFL seasons were in 1953 and 1956 for the Cardinals.

A more tragic case would be Greg Cook, who was outstanding as a rookie for Cincinnati in 1969, but a torn rotator cuff dashed any dreams of a long career. Cook’s only other game would be in 1973 as he unsuccessfully attempted a comeback.

Rookies who were not officially rookies: The NFL does not officially recognize the prolific Jim Kelly (1986), Warren Moon (1984) and Butch Songin (1960) as actual rookies in NFL history. This is because of their pre-NFL affiliation with other professional leagues like the CFL and USFL.

Jeff Garcia, Pat Haden, Dieter Brock and Joe Kapp also fall under this. Otto Graham, because he played in the AAFC for the Cleveland Browns, is another example of a NFL player that essentially does not have a rookie season. Y.A. Tittle also had his start in the AAFC.

That is why Kelly (3,593 yards) and Moon (3,338 yards) are not recognized as the first two rookie quarterbacks to exceed 3,000 yards passing in a season. Likewise, Butch Songin’s 22 touchdown passes for the 1960 Patriots at age 36, which would rank tied for second all time, are ignored in rookie record books.

Pat Haden and Dieter Brock do not receive credit for being the first post-merger rookies to win a playoff game. Instead that goes to Shaun King in 1999.

For what it’s worth, as sophomores, Kelly was largely the same player in 1987, and Moon regressed a little in 1985.

 

Not Done Yet

After three rounds of logical, necessary cuts, we were down to 67 cases, with each presenting a quarterback that threw at least 100 passes in both his rookie and sophomore seasons. However, this was still not ready to be studied for sophomore slumps.

We still had too many bad rookie seasons in the data. That included some well-known No. 1 overall picks who struggled their first year: John Elway, Troy Aikman and Eli Manning.

It would be silly to talk about a sophomore slump for these players when they showed so little as rookies. All were considerably better as sophomores, but that should not factor into the sophomore slump.

This is where things got dicey and more subjective. However, a rule was established, albeit with some exceptions, and that was to use the passer rating index (Rate+) on PFR’s Advanced Passing table, and only include players that were a 90 or higher. A mark of 100 is considered average.

This will help adjust for the era and would eliminate the really bad seasons, but only when considering the passer rating.

Players like Aikman and Jack Trudeau were the lowest-ranked passer in the league in their rookie seasons. Kerry Collins and Kyle Boller were next to last. Doug Williams was No. 26 out of 28 in 1978. Joey Harrington and David Carr were the worst in 2002.

Those are seasons you would want to kick out anyway.

Even though Tony Banks was at 90, we made a change by replacing him with Vince Young (81), who won Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2006, and even made it to the Pro Bowl as a replacement. An exception should be made for someone that achieves that, even if it may not have been a deserving distinction.

Banks fumbled 21 times, was sacked 48 times for a league-worst 306 yards lost, and Football Outsiders ranked him last in the league in DYAR in 1996, and 44th in DVOA.

With all of this information, it only seemed right to make the swap. Here are the 32 final exclusions of rookie seasons that were not good enough for a slump:

 

Quarterback	Year	Team	GP	GS	Record	Att.	Comp.	Pct.	Yards	TD	INT	PR
Colt McCoy	2010	CLE	8	8	2-6	222	135	60.8	1576	6	9	74.5
Josh Freeman	2009	TB	10	9	3-6	290	158	54.5	1855	10	18	59.8
Mark Sanchez	2009	NYJ	15	15	8-7	364	196	53.8	2444	12	20	63.0
Trent Edwards	2007	BUF	10	9	5-4	269	151	56.1	1630	7	8	70.4
Charlie Frye	2005	CLE	7	5	2-3	164	98	59.8	1002	4	5	72.8
Eli Manning	2004	NYG	9	7	1-6	197	95	48.2	1043	6	9	55.4
Kyle Boller	2003	BAL	11	9	5-4	224	116	51.8	1260	7	9	62.4
Patrick Ramsey	2002	WAS	10	5	2-3	227	117	51.5	1539	9	8	71.8
Joey Harrington	2002	DET	14	12	3-9	429	215	50.1	2294	12	16	59.9
David Carr	2002	HOU	16	16	4-12	444	233	52.5	2592	9	15	62.8
Quincy Carter	2001	DAL	8	8	3-5	176	90	51.1	1072	5	7	63.0
Donovan McNabb	1999	PHI	12	6	2-4	216	106	49.1	948	8	7	60.1
Cade McNown	1999	CHI	15	6	2-4	235	127	54.0	1465	8	10	66.7
Tony Banks	1996	RAM	14	13	5-8	368	192	52.2	2544	15	15	71.0
Kerry Collins	1995	CAR	15	13	7-6	433	214	49.4	2717	14	19	61.9
Heath Shuler	1994	WAS	11	8	1-7	265	120	45.3	1658	10	12	59.6
Rick Mirer	1993	SEA	16	16	6-10	486	274	56.4	2833	12	17	67.0
Drew Bledsoe	1993	NE	13	12	5-7	429	214	49.9	2494	15	15	65.0
Rodney Peete	1989	DET	8	8	3-5	195	103	52.8	1479	5	9	67.0
Troy Aikman	1989	DAL	11	11	0-11	293	155	52.9	1749	9	18	55.7
Billy Joe Tolliver	1989	SD	5	5	2-3	185	89	48.1	1097	5	8	57.9
Steve Walsh	1989	DAL	8	5	1-4	219	110	50.2	1371	5	9	60.5
Jack Trudeau	1986	IND	12	11	0-11	417	204	48.9	2225	8	18	53.5
Steve Young	1985	TB	5	5	1-4	138	72	52.2	935	3	8	56.9
John Elway	1983	DEN	11	10	4-6	259	123	47.5	1663	7	14	54.9
Mike Pagel	1982	CLT	9	9	0-8-1	221	111	50.2	1281	5	7	62.4
Neil Lomax	1981	CRD	14	7	4-3	236	119	50.4	1575	4	10	59.9
David Woodley	1980	MIA	13	11	6-5	327	176	53.8	1850	14	17	63.1
Steve Fuller	1979	KC	16	12	6-6	270	146	54.1	1484	6	14	55.8
Doug Williams	1978	TB	10	10	4-6	194	73	37.6	1170	7	8	53.4
Karl Sweetan	1966	DET	10	8	2-5-1	309	157	50.8	1809	4	14	54.3
Bill Munson	1964	RAM	11	8	2-4-2	223	108	48.4	1533	9	15	56.5

 

The only players from the 32 to play worse as sophomores were Heath Shuler in 1995 and Karl Sweetan in 1967. Even those are not significant slumps.

Steve Walsh was traded from Dallas to New Orleans, so he did not progress with the same team. Not like Jimmy Johnson should have drafted Walsh and Troy Aikman together in the first place.

Mark Sanchez is the only player here to win a playoff game. He may have reached the AFC Championship in 2009, but his 23 turnovers were detrimental to the team, who really only made it thanks to the Colts passing on perfection in Week 16.

Like so many of these 32, Sanchez did get better as a sophomore, but we feel good about keeping him in this list.

 

The Sophomore Slump Study

Finally, we had our 35 quarterbacks to look at for the sophomore slump. Without further ado, here they are.

 

Quarterback	Year	Team	GP	GS	Record	Att.	Comp.	Pct.	Yards	TD	INT	PR
Sam Bradford	2010	RAM	16	16	7-9	590	354	60.0	3512	18	15	76.5
Matt Ryan	2008	ATL	16	16	11-5	434	265	61.1	3440	16	11	87.7
Joe Flacco	2008	BAL	16	16	11-5	428	257	60.0	2971	14	12	80.3
Jay Cutler	2006	DEN	5	5	2-3	137	81	59.1	1001	9	5	88.5
Matt Leinart	2006	CRD	12	11	4-7	377	214	56.8	2547	11	12	74.0
Vince Young	2006	TEN	15	13	8-5	357	184	51.5	2199	12	13	66.7
Ben Roethlisberger	2004	PIT	14	13	13-0	295	196	66.4	2621	17	11	98.1
Byron Leftwich	2003	JAX	15	13	5-8	418	239	57.2	2819	14	16	73.0
Shaun King	1999	TB	6	5	4-1	146	89	61.0	875	7	4	82.4
Tim Couch	1999	CLE	15	14	2-12	399	223	55.9	2447	15	13	73.2
Charlie Batch	1998	DET	12	12	5-7	303	173	57.1	2178	11	6	83.5
Peyton Manning	1998	IND	16	16	3-13	575	326	56.7	3739	26	28	71.2
Jake Plummer	1997	CRD	10	9	3-6	296	157	53.0	2203	15	15	73.1
Jeff George	1990	IND	13	12	5-7	334	181	54.2	2152	16	13	73.8
Steve Beuerlein	1988	RAI	10	8	4-4	238	105	44.1	1643	8	7	66.6
Don Majkowski	1987	GB	7	5	2-2-1	127	55	43.3	875	5	3	70.2
Jim Everett	1986	RAM	6	5	3-2	147	73	49.7	1018	8	8	67.8
Bernie Kosar	1985	CLE	12	10	4-6	248	124	50.0	1578	8	7	69.3
Dan Marino	1983	MIA	11	9	7-2	296	173	58.4	2210	20	6	96.0
Jim McMahon	1982	CHI	8	7	3-4	210	120	57.1	1501	9	7	79.9
Phil Simms	1979	NYG	12	11	6-5	265	134	50.6	1743	13	14	66.0
Steve Grogan	1975	NE	13	7	1-6	274	139	50.7	1976	11	18	60.4
Steve Bartkowski	1975	ATL	11	11	4-7	255	115	45.1	1662	13	15	59.3
Jim Plunkett	1971	NE	14	14	6-8	328	158	48.2	2158	19	16	68.6
Archie Manning	1971	NO	12	10	3-5-2	177	86	48.6	1164	6	9	60.1
Dennis Shaw	1970	BUF	14	12	3-8-1	321	178	55.5	2507	10	20	65.3
Bob Griese	1967	MIA	12	10	3-7	331	166	50.2	2005	15	18	61.6
Joe Namath	1965	NYJ	13	9	3-5-1	340	164	48.2	2220	18	15	68.7
Mickey Slaughter	1963	DEN	13	7	1-5-1	223	112	50.2	1689	12	15	65.4
Fran Tarkenton	1961	MIN	14	10	2-8	280	157	56.1	1997	18	17	74.7
Sam Etcheverry	1961	CRD	14	9	4-5	196	96	49.0	1275	14	11	70.4
Tom Flores	1960	RAI	14	12	5-7	252	136	54.0	1738	12	12	71.8
Johnny Green	1960	BUF	10	6	3-3	228	89	39.0	1267	10	10	54.1
Johnny Unitas	1956	CLT	12	7	3-4	198	110	55.6	1498	9	10	74.0
Eddie LeBaron	1952	WAS	12	7	1-6	194	96	49.5	1420	14	15	65.7

 

That was the rookie season. Now the real test came in the sophomore season. Adding the results together yielded surprising results.

 

QB Type	Win%	APG	Comp. %	YPG	YPA	TD%	INT%	PR
Rookie	0.440	24.0	54.1	164.3	6.84	4.43	4.18	73.0
Sophomore	0.466	26.6	56.0	183.5	6.91	4.15	4.18	73.9

 

As sophomores, the quarterbacks had a small rise in attempts per game (APG), had a better completion percentage, but they only had a marginal gain in YPA, actually did worse at throwing touchdowns, and saw no difference in their rate of interceptions. The passer rating is not even a full point higher.

While this does not speak well for a second-year improvement, it also debunks the idea of a sophomore slump. Collectively, these players improved by the smallest of margins. They did not decline.

Of course, that is the group collectively. When you look at the individuals, it is easy to see why the quarterback sophomore slump was created. It used to be true.

For the 35 cases, we concluded 20 showed improvement, while 15 suffered some type of sophomore slump. Though not a number to be ignored, that is a minority 42.9 percent for the sophomore slump.

Here are the 15 players we chose for the sophomore slump being real: Eddie LeBaron, Tom Flores, Sam Etcheverry, Fran Tarkenton, Mickey Slaughter, Joe Namath, Dennis Shaw, Jim Plunkett, Steve Bartkowski, Phil Simms, Don Majkowski, Jeff George, Matt Leinart, Matt Ryan, and Sam Bradford.

Rookie quarterback success was so very rare, and the sophomore slump claimed 10 of our first 15 quality rookies. That is two-thirds, and takes us through Phil Simms in 1979.

That also means 15 of our last 20 rookies (75 percent) did not suffer a sophomore slump. Though their may be three recent cases since 2006, the myth of the slump has really been dead since the 80s.

This table perfectly sums up the disappearance of the sophomore slump.

 

Type	Win%	APG	Comp. %	YPG	YPA	TD%	INT%	PR
Rookie 1950-79	0.356	20.3	50.1	138.5	6.81	5.02	5.57	65.8
Sophomore 1951-80	0.324	22.9	50.1	150.4	6.56	4.34	6.19	59.8
Type	Win%	APG	Comp. %	YPG	YPA	TD%	INT%	PR
Rookie 1980-10	0.495	27.0	56.5	185.2	6.85	4.08	3.34	77.4
Sophomore 1981-11	0.553	29.2	59.2	207.1	7.10	4.05	3.05	81.8

 

The worst sophomore slumps happened several decades ago. Think of examples like Eddie LeBaron, Jim Plunkett, Steve Bartkowski, Mickey Slaughter, and Sam Etcheverry.

That is not to say there have not been recent slumps, but they are not on the level of some just mentioned. Some would even argue two of these players were not good enough as rookies to justify the slump.

Matt Ryan was not as good in 2009 as he was his rookie season, but it was still a successful year. He missed two games with injury, or else he may have equaled his record of 11-5, and had even more volume stats as he took on a heavier workload.

Matt Leinart had an underrated rookie season for Arizona in 2006, but under new coach Ken Whisenhunt, he did not get better in 2007. Whisenhunt had him splitting time with Kurt Warner, and in the fifth game of the season, Leinart was lost for the year with a shoulder injury. He also permanently lost his job to Warner in Arizona, and is now considered a bust.

Sam Bradford’s rookie season was overrated to begin with, so maybe not much of a surprise he did not get better last season. In 10 games, Bradford managed just six touchdown passes. However, his slump really started in the 12th game of 2010.

 

Split	Record	Pct.	YPA	TD	INT	PR
Games 1-11	5-6	60.5	5.97	17	9	82.0
Games 12-26	3-12	55.2	6.01	7	12	68.2

If you have not had your fill of tables, for one last time, here is a comparison of our 35 quarterbacks’ quality rookie season versus their sophomore season (listed second for each quarterback).

 

Quarterback	Year	Team	GP	GS	Record	Att.	Comp.	Pct.	Yards	TD	INT	PR
Archie Manning	1971	NO	12	10	3-5-2	177	86	48.6	1164	6	9	60.1
Archie Manning	1972	NO	14	14	2-11-1	448	230	51.3	2781	18	21	64.6
Ben Roethlisberger	2004	PIT	14	13	13-0	295	196	66.4	2621	17	11	98.1
Ben Roethlisberger	2005	PIT	12	12	9-3	268	168	62.7	2385	17	9	98.6
Bernie Kosar	1985	CLE	12	10	4-6	248	124	50.0	1578	8	7	69.3
Bernie Kosar	1986	CLE	16	16	12-4	531	310	58.4	3854	17	10	83.8
Bob Griese	1967	MIA	12	10	3-7	331	166	50.2	2005	15	18	61.6
Bob Griese	1968	MIA	13	13	5-7-1	355	186	52.4	2473	21	16	75.7
Byron Leftwich	2003	JAX	15	13	5-8	418	239	57.2	2819	14	16	73.0
Byron Leftwich	2004	JAX	14	14	8-6	441	267	60.5	2941	15	10	82.2
Charlie Batch	1998	DET	12	12	5-7	303	173	57.1	2178	11	6	83.5
Charlie Batch	1999	DET	11	10	6-4	270	151	55.9	1957	13	7	84.1
Dan Marino	1983	MIA	11	9	7-2	296	173	58.4	2210	20	6	96.0
Dan Marino	1984	MIA	16	16	14-2	564	362	64.2	5084	48	17	108.9
Dennis Shaw	1970	BUF	14	12	3-8-1	321	178	55.5	2507	10	20	65.3
Dennis Shaw	1971	BUF	13	12	1-11	291	149	51.2	1813	11	26	46.1
Don Majkowski	1987	GB	7	5	2-2-1	127	55	43.3	875	5	3	70.2
Don Majkowski	1988	GB	13	9	3-6	336	178	53.0	2119	9	11	67.8
Eddie LeBaron	1952	WAS	12	7	1-6	194	96	49.5	1420	14	15	65.7
Eddie LeBaron	1953	WAS	12	5	2-2-1	149	62	41.6	874	3	17	28.3
Fran Tarkenton	1961	MIN	14	10	2-8	280	157	56.1	1997	18	17	74.7
Fran Tarkenton	1962	MIN	14	14	2-11-1	329	163	49.5	2595	22	25	66.9
Jake Plummer	1997	CRD	10	9	3-6	296	157	53.0	2203	15	15	73.1
Jake Plummer	1998	CRD	16	16	9-7	547	324	59.2	3737	17	20	75.0
Jay Cutler	2006	DEN	5	5	2-3	137	81	59.1	1001	9	5	88.5
Jay Cutler	2007	DEN	16	16	7-9	467	297	63.6	3497	20	14	88.1
Jeff George	1990	IND	13	12	5-7	334	181	54.2	2152	16	13	73.8
Jeff George	1991	IND	16	16	1-15	485	292	60.2	2910	10	12	73.8
Jim Everett	1986	RAM	6	5	3-2	147	73	49.7	1018	8	8	67.8
Jim Everett	1987	RAM	11	11	5-6	302	162	53.6	2064	10	13	68.4
Jim McMahon	1982	CHI	8	7	3-4	210	120	57.1	1501	9	7	79.9
Jim McMahon	1983	CHI	14	13	7-6	295	175	59.3	2184	12	13	77.6
Jim Plunkett	1971	NE	14	14	6-8	328	158	48.2	2158	19	16	68.6
Jim Plunkett	1972	NE	14	14	3-11	355	169	47.6	2196	8	25	45.7
Joe Flacco	2008	BAL	16	16	11-5	428	257	60.0	2971	14	12	80.3
Joe Flacco	2009	BAL	16	16	9-7	499	315	63.1	3613	21	12	88.9
Joe Namath	1965	NYJ	13	9	3-5-1	340	164	48.2	2220	18	15	68.7
Joe Namath	1966	NYJ	14	13	5-6-2	471	232	49.3	3379	19	27	62.6
Johnny Green	1960	BUF	10	6	3-3	228	89	39.0	1267	10	10	54.1
Johnny Green	1961	BUF	8	5	2-3	126	56	44.4	903	6	5	68.3
Johnny Unitas	1956	CLT	12	7	3-4	198	110	55.6	1498	9	10	74.0
Johnny Unitas	1957	CLT	12	12	7-5	301	172	57.1	2550	24	17	88.0
Matt Leinart	2006	CRD	12	11	4-7	377	214	56.8	2547	11	12	74.0
Matt Leinart	2007	CRD	5	5	3-2	112	60	53.6	647	2	4	61.9
Matt Ryan	2008	ATL	16	16	11-5	434	265	61.1	3440	16	11	87.7
Matt Ryan	2009	ATL	14	14	9-5	451	263	58.3	2916	22	14	80.9
Mickey Slaughter	1963	DEN	13	7	1-5-1	223	112	50.2	1689	12	15	65.4
Mickey Slaughter	1964	DEN	14	4	0-3-1	189	97	51.3	930	3	11	46.4
Peyton Manning	1998	IND	16	16	3-13	575	326	56.7	3739	26	28	71.2
Peyton Manning	1999	IND	16	16	13-3	533	331	62.1	4135	26	15	90.7
Phil Simms	1979	NYG	12	11	6-5	265	134	50.6	1743	13	14	66.0
Phil Simms	1980	NYG	13	13	3-10	402	193	48.0	2321	15	19	58.9
Sam Bradford	2010	RAM	16	16	7-9	590	354	60.0	3512	18	15	76.5
Sam Bradford	2011	RAM	10	10	1-9	357	191	53.5	2164	6	6	70.5
Sam Etcheverry	1961	CRD	14	9	4-5	196	96	49.0	1275	14	11	70.4
Sam Etcheverry	1962	CRD	14	3	1-3	106	58	54.7	707	2	10	42.5
Shaun King	1999	TB	6	5	4-1	146	89	61.0	875	7	4	82.4
Shaun King	2000	TB	16	16	10-6	428	233	54.4	2769	18	13	75.8
Steve Bartkowski	1975	ATL	11	11	4-7	255	115	45.1	1662	13	15	59.3
Steve Bartkowski	1976	ATL	5	5	1-4	120	57	47.5	677	2	9	39.5
Steve Beuerlein	1988	RAI	10	8	4-4	238	105	44.1	1643	8	7	66.6
Steve Beuerlein	1989	RAI	10	7	4-3	217	108	49.8	1677	13	9	78.4
Steve Grogan	1975	NE	13	7	1-6	274	139	50.7	1976	11	18	60.4
Steve Grogan	1976	NE	14	14	11-3	302	145	48.0	1903	18	20	60.6
Tim Couch	1999	CLE	15	14	2-12	399	223	55.9	2447	15	13	73.2
Tim Couch	2000	CLE	7	7	2-5	215	137	63.7	1483	7	9	77.3
Tom Flores	1960	RAI	14	12	5-7	252	136	54.0	1738	12	12	71.8
Tom Flores	1961	RAI	14	14	2-12	366	190	51.9	2176	15	19	62.1
Vince Young	2006	TEN	15	13	8-5	357	184	51.5	2199	12	13	66.7
Vince Young	2007	TEN	15	15	9-6	382	238	62.3	2546	9	17	71.1

 

Looking Ahead

This season, perhaps more than any in history, will put a lot of focus on rookie and sophomore quarterbacks. Right now we are expecting nine teams to start a rookie or sophomore quarterback in Week 1. That could increase to 10 if Russell Wilson wins the job in Seattle, and he was not even a first-round pick.

Quarterbacks make so much money today, that teams want to see a quick return on investment. The NFL fixed the rookie salary cap, meaning no rookie will be seeing Sam Bradford-money again, but they are still the highest-paid position.

Expectations for the young quarterback are being raised, and in many cases, are being met. As you can see, there is not a great history of a true rookie quarterback having success in the NFL, so that can explain why people freak out and overrate a season like Cam Newton’s last year.

Ben Roethlisberger did great things in 2004, but no one else really stepped up until 2008, which appears to be the year things changed when Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco ended up with 11-5 records and were in the playoffs.

Consider these facts:

 

• After Dennis Shaw won the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year, no quarterback won it until Ben Roethlisberger in 2004. Since then, five of the last eight winners of that award are quarterbacks.
• Since 1970, only five rookie quarterbacks have won a playoff game, and four of them have come since 2004; three since 2008 (Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez, T.J. Yates).
• In 2006, Matt Leinart set a rookie record with 405 passing yards in a game. He has since been surpassed by Matthew Stafford (422 yards in 2009), and Cam Newton (432 yards in 2011).
• The rookie records for pass attempts, completions and yards have all been broken in the last two seasons.
• More rookie quarterbacks have thrown for 3,000 yards in the last four seasons (4) than the one (Peyton Manning) that did it prior to 2008.

 

Finally, it was only four years ago when Chris Weinke was second all time to Peyton in rookie passing yards with 2,931 yards. Today, Weinke ranks 7th, and he could easily be out of the top 10 by the end of this 2012 season.

Newton’s rookie record of 4,051 passing yards last season may only last one season with the next crop ready to go (Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, and Brandon Weeden).

That is the NFL today. Rookies now have expectations, because they can meet them. There is no sophomore slump. This is the year you take it to the next level, because that is what you are supposed to do.

 

Scott Kacsmar is a football writer/researcher who has contributed large quantities of data to Pro-Football-Reference.com, including the only standardized database of fourth quarter comebacks and game-winning drives. He will not have a sophomore slump. That’s for damn sure. You can visit his blog for a complete writing archive. Please send any questions or comments to Scott at smk_42@yahoo.com, or you can follow him on Twitter at @CaptainComeback.

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