Stat Pack: Finding Faults in the Bears and Falcons?

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Nov 09, 2012



Charles Tillman the Destroyer

The NFL season already reached its halfway mark, and seems quite clear which teams are true and legitimate contenders to win Super Bowl XLVII. Or is it truly that clear?

As host Adam Dobrowolski explains in this week's edition of the Stat Pack, it's not truly that evident for the Bears and Falcons that they are unquestioned Super Bowl contenders. How is that possible? Dobrowolski looks at league precedent and regression analysis to explain how the Bears defense won't keep up its tricks and how the Falcons aren't endearing themselves well to the playoffs by squeaking past losing teams. In fact, in both case, league history suggests these teams are prime candidates to lose in the playoffs if they don't make the proper adjustments in the season's second half.

These two discussions headline a six-pack of stories from Week 9, including a list of teams primed for second-half improvement and why the final weeks of the regular season will likely lack playoff drama.

Meanwhile, Dobrowolski offers up playoff projections for the second half of the season. While he remains confident in his preseason predictions for most of the league's top teams, there are a few surprises that could impact his projected playoff race (see: Indianapolis Colts). Dobrowolski also determines whether to change his Texans over Bears predictions -- for the Super Bowl.

Speaking of Texans and Bears, Dobrowolski also delves into his six favorite match-ups for Week 10.

There's one concern: it's nice to see the Stat Pack back in action after a one-week power-stripped hiatus. Enjoy your football, everyone!

Reference:
For those who are interested in checking out bits and pieces of this week's podcasts, every edition will include a "playlist" of sorts breaking down every segment from the podcast.

0:00 to 28:20 -- Six Pack of Statements

  • 1:05 -- Why the Chicago Bears' second half will make or break their Super Bowl chances
  • 6:45 -- Why the Atlanta Falcons could be on last leg as legitimate Super Bowl contender
  • 12:30 -- Which four teams WILL improve in the second half
  • 18:45 -- How the Pittsburgh Steelers' win could be a season-changer
  • 22:15 -- How the Kansas City Chiefs' first-half season stacks up among the league's worst
  • 25:30 -- Why the NFL will lack close and intriguing playoff races this season

28:20 to 35:15 -- Playoff projections for the second half of the season (Texans 14-2, Patriots 12-4, Ravens 11-5, Broncos 11-5, Steelers 11-5, Colts 9-7; Falcons 13-3, Bears 12-4, Giants 11-5, 49ers 10-6, Packers 11-5, Seahawks 10-6)

35:15 to 38:25 -- Six Pack of the NFL's Best Teams (Houston Texans, Atlanta Falcons, San Francisco 49ers, Chicago Bears, San Francisco 49ers, Green Bay Packers, Denver Broncos)

38:25 to 50:20 -- Six Pack of Intriguing Match-ups in Week 10 (Alex Smith v. Rams pass D, Lions at Vikings, Russell Wilson v. Jets pass D, Matt Ryan v. Drew Brees, Cowboys inefficiency v. Eagles inefficiency, Texans at Bears)








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