December 16, 2013


Roger Dodger

On this date in 1979, Roger Staubach played his final game with the Dallas Cowboys. In our definitive list of the top 10 quarterbacks of all time, we rated Staubach No. 7. 

The original Captain America is a far cry from the man under center in Big D today, Tony Romo.

Also on this date: the 1972 Miami Dolphins cap off their perfect regular season at 14-0. 

And O.J. Simpson became the first player in NFL history to rush for 2,000 yards in a season, on this date in 1973. Two decades later, he would become synonymous with white Broncos and murder.



December 13, 2013


NFL games in the snow are fun to watch for fans; just try telling these coaches how awesome it is.

Some coaches look natural in frigid conditions, while others look like they're modeling the NFL's heavy clothing line.

*** 

Get your hands on the Jason Garrett Undercover Op wardrobe, just $295!

Mission failure.

***

If there's one person who looks at home in frigid, shriveling weather, it's Bill Belichick. You can get your hands on Satan's headset for $695 and a two-year contract with Motorola. 

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Not sure Land's End Catalogs still exist ... regardless, can you imagine the smell inside these Packers coats and trenches?

The Green Bay Dutch Oven will make you gag. Much more effective at smothering than the Packers defense. 

***

Let's have a conference to see if we can understand what our frozen lips and mouths are saying to each other. 

***

Tripping an opponent on the sideline has never looked so good ...

***

Purchase the Andy Reid Kool-Aid wadrobe and secure the power to break through brick walls and stop bank robbers!

***

Spend some time in the Frozen Tundra and you can wear the frozen Tom Coughlin look.

Mike Smith wearing it and wearing it well.

He'th tho cold and fwozen looking.

No word if Smith will thaw in time for Week 15 Sunday when the Falcons host the Redskins.

***

Respect for John Harbaugh ...

***

In which Chip Kelly lands a supporting role in Dr. Seuss' How The Grinch Stole Christmas.



December 12, 2013


Stat Pack Week 15

By Adam Dobrowolski
Cold, Hard Football Facts Chief Mathletics Advisor

With a torn ACL and MCL suffered by Rob Gronkowski in Sunday's game between the Patriots and Browns, the chances of a championship for a perennial power suddenly got a lot more cloudy. And we're not talking about "Manti Te'o a Tale," the fantasy team of Stat Pack host Adam Dobrowolski. In fact, many now believe that Gronk's injury could spell "the end" for the Patriots chances.

As much as Dobrowolski would like to say "not so fast" to the doom and gloom statement about his fantasy team (regular season champs) and the real team from New England, the Mathletics say that Sunday's outcome could be a death sentence for the 2013 Patriots.

After winning 27-26 against Cleveland, it marked the fifth one-possession win against a non-quality team for the Patriots. The other four came against the Bills (4-9), Jets (6-7), Falcons (3-10), Texans (2-11) and Browns (4-9). That's not a good sign for a team with legit Super Bowl hopes. While 11 Super Bowl teams have five one-possession wins against non-quality opponents, a good portion of those wins came against .500 teams. Here's the list:

  • 2012 Ravens (five): two against .500 teams, two against divisional opponents
  • 2006 Colts (five): three against .500 teams, two against divisional opponents
  • 2003 Panthers (eight): two against .500 teams, four against divisional opponents
  • 2000 Giants (seven): one against .500 teams, four against divisional opponents
  • 1999 Titans (five): two against .500 teams, three against divisional opponents
  • 1998 Falcons (six): none against .500 teams, two against divisional opponents
  • 1987 Redskins (six): none against .500 teams, four against divisional opponents
  • 1986 Giants (five): none against .500 teams, two against divisional opponents
  • 1981 49ers (six): one against .500 teams, five against divisional opponents
  • 1980 Raiders (five): three against .500 teams, five against divisional opponents
  • 1970 Colts (six): zero against .500 teams, two against divisional opponents

As you'll see, only six Super Bowl teams had at least five one-possession wins against outright losing teams. One of those, the 1987 Redskins, had two such wins with replacement players and beat three 7-8 teams. Meanwhile, the Patriots don't have any heavier bad luck against divisional opponents. In theory, divisional opponents are more familiar, so the inferior teams can keep the games closer. That's not the case for New England.

Beyond that, Dobrowolski also looks the impact of the record-setting offensive play from Week 14. How did it impact the CHFF Big Board. Furthermore, Dobrowolski his six pack to top Wild Card games and his six pack of top games in Week 15.

Make sure to check out this week's six pack of topics on Stat Pack!

-----

Reference:
For those who are interested in checking out bits and pieces of this week's podcasts, every edition will include a "playlist" of sorts breaking down every segment from the podcast.

1:55 -- Mathletics: Patriots' Super Bowl hopes doomed?

11:20 -- Week 14 Big Board Highlights

16:15 -- King of Props Week 14 Review

18:20 -- The Stat Pack Week 15 Power Rankings: the Wild Card hopefuls

22:35 -- Week 15 Preview via the Intelligence Index

26:30 -- Six Pack of Top Games for Week 15



December 12, 2013


True to form, the RG3 Bench comes with plenty of questions.

Are the legs sturdy enough to function properly?

Is Dan Snyder willing to invest all the marbles in this?

Is the logo offensive? 

Redskins Fever: catch it!



December 11, 2013


If you've been away from your television today and wonder what ESPN is up to, it goes like this: 

  • RG3 is benched.
  • Kirk Cousins is replacing him.
  • Mike Shanahan says he's doing it for RG3's own good
  • Is Shanahan trying to get fired?
  • Here's what RG3 had to say about it.
  • Let's go to the press conference introducing backup quarterback Kirk Cousins as starter.
  • Coming up next, Mike Shanahan press conference.
  • But first, lets take you back to what RG3 said.

Rinse and repeat on loop. 

For my money, the photo below - not benching the franchise quarterback - is damning evidence that Mike Shanahan wants out of Dan Snyder's pigskin Hell.

There's more to the story here, though.

The statistical reality is that RGIII is the Fall Guy for Shanahan's poor coaching and for the misperformance of one of the worst defenses in football this year.

Sure, RGIII took a big step back after his brilliant rookie season, in which he led the NFL in many measures of passing efficiency -- a unique achievement by a rookie. But even with his regression from the lofty standards of 2012, RGIII has passed the ball at a level this year similar to what we've seen out of Indy's beloved Andrew Luck.

Griffin's 2013 passer rating (82.2) is just a shade behind Luck's 2013 performance of 85.4, and still better than Luck's career rating of 80.3.

Griffin this year has also been more accurate than Luck (60.1% vs. 58.6%) and boasts a better average per attempt (7.0 vs. 6.7).

In other words, RGIII has played fairly well by the standards of a young quarterback. Washington's defense, however, has been a dismal failure by any measure.

Here's a look at where Shanahan's Redskins rank in several key categories, including our Quality Stats:

In fact, Washington is on pace to give up 501 points, easily the most in Redskins history. the current record is 432 by the 1954 Redskins (in a 12-game season); the franchise record for defensive futility in the 16-game era was set by the 1998 Redskins (421). 

Peyton Manning and Tom Brady couldn't win with that defense.

But let's blame the young QB RGIII. After all, it's good for ESPN's ratings.

 



December 11, 2013


If the NFL actually sent a letter to fans about tailgating at Super Bowl XLVIII, it would go like this ...



December 10, 2013


Ditka Being Ditka

I'm not sure what took the Bears until Dec. 2013 to retire Ditka's jersey but here were are. 

If you missed the ceremony at halftime of the Bears' clobbering of the Cowboys, go here

It is 100 percent proof that Ditka > Cold.

 

 



December 09, 2013


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That's 11 penalties for 90 yards. First down. Time out.

 



Josh Gordon: More Mega Than MegaTron

By Cold Hard Football Facts
December 09, 2013


 

SEVEN FROM SUNDAY – WEEK 14
from NFL Media Services

 

A look at seven statistical highlights from games played at 1:00 p.m. ET and 4:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, December 8, the 14th week of the 2013 season.

 

  • The DENVER BRONCOS and INDIANAPOLIS COLTS each clinched a playoff berth today. The Broncos, who defeated Tennessee 51-28, secured a playoff spot. With the Titans’ loss, the Colts clinched the AFC South division title.

 

  • The Baltimore Ravens defeated the Minnesota Vikings 29-26 in a game that featured six different lead changes in the fourth quarter. That is the most fourth-quarter lead changes in a single game in NFL history.

 

  • The DENVER BRONCOS became the first team in NFL history to have four players score at least 10 touchdowns in the same season. The four Broncos with at least 10 touchdowns this season are KNOWSHON MORENO (12), DEMARYIUS THOMAS (11), JULIUS THOMAS (11) and WES WELKER (10). All four scored a touchdown today.

 

Quarterback PEYTON MANNING threw four touchdown passes, his seventh game this season with at least four touchdown passes. That is the most such games in a single season in NFL history.

 

Kicker MATT PRATER converted a 64-yard field goal, the longest field goal in NFL history.

 

  • The NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS overcame a 16-point deficit in today’s 27-26 win over Cleveland. The Patriots, who have erased deficits of 10 and 24 points in their previous two games, are thefirst team since the 2000 Kansas City Chiefs to win three in a row by overcoming a 10+ point deficit in each game.

 

  • Philadelphia running back LE SEAN MC COY rushed for 217 yards and two touchdowns in the Eagles’ 34-20 win over Detroit. McCoy set the single-game franchise record with 217 rushing yards, surpassing the previous mark of 205 yards by Pro Football Hall of Famer STEVE VAN BUREN on November 27, 1949.

 

McCoy leads the NFL this season with 1,305 rushing yards and can become the first Eagle to lead the league in rushing since Van Buren in 1949.

 

  • Arizona Cardinals wide receiver LARRY FITZGERALD had 12 catches for 96 yards and one touchdown in the Cardinals’ 30-10 win over St. Louis. Fitzgerald, who has 10 touchdowns this year, is the ninth player in NFL history to record at least five seasons with 10 or more touchdown receptions. He joins JERRY RICE (nine), RANDY MOSS (nine), MARVIN HARRISON (eight),TERRELL OWENS (eight), CRIS CARTER (six), LANCE ALWORTH (five), BOB HAYES (five) and ART POWELL (five).

 

  • Cleveland wide receiver JOSH GORDON had seven catches for 151 yards and a touchdown in the Browns’ 27-26 loss at New England. Gordon has 774 receiving yards in his past four games, the most in any four-game span in a single season in NFL history. The previous mark was 746 yards by Detroit’s CALVIN JOHNSON set earlier this season.

 

 



December 05, 2013


Stat Pack Week 14

By Adam Dobrowolski
Cold, Hard Football Facts Chief Mathletics Advisor

 

For all those feeling deja vu last Monday night against New Orleans, don't worry about seeing a neurologist. You weren't alone. It was yet another game in which a top game came into Qwest Field in primetime. It was yet another game in which the 12th Man and the Legion of Boom shut down their opponent. And most importantly, it was yet another game in which Russell Wilson proved that he's one of the best quarterbacks in a big-game situation.

As a result, he's proven to be the best quarterback EVER through his first two seasons. No kidding, not even when compared Dan Marino's 48 touchdown passes as a second-year player.

While Marino can say he put together one of the best seasons ever with his 1984 campaign, he can't say that looked regression square in the eye and toppled it just any other opponent that traveled to the Great Northwest. DangeRuss can possibly say that after his 120+ Real Quarterback Rating against the Saints moves Seattle one step closer to Mathletics history.

As Stat Pack host Adam Dobrowolski explains, the 2013 Seahawks were due for regression. They put up a 100+ Offensive Passer Rating in 2012, and no team ever improved its OPR the year after putting up triple digits in that stat. However, along with the Broncos and their historic success, the Seahawks are on pace to improve their passer rating from 100.58 to 109.77 this year.

What's even more impressive is that Wilson's led the way in the toughest of fashion, and that's by being deadly efficient against quality opponents. We first discussed this matter on Stat Pack in preview of last year's second Seahawks-49ers showdown of the season. We take a look at it again in preview of this year's second Seahawks-49ers showdown of the season.

Once the dust settled in 2012, though, the numbers looked even better. Wilson put together a 106.23 passer rating against eight quality opponents, including two postseason games. This year? In five games against quality opponents, Wilson owns a 107.04 passer rating. It's hard to envision any other quarterback breaking regression in this fashion, let alone a second-year quarterback.

The more detailed numbers looks as so:

  • 2012, rookie year: 6-2 record, 128-of-215 for 1754 yards, 17 TD, 3 INT (106.23 rating)
  • 2013, second year: 4-1 record, 88-of-142 for 1217 yards, 10 TD, 2 INT (107.04 rating)
  • OVERALL: 10-3 record, 216-of-357 for 2971 yards, 27 TD, 5 INT (106.55 rating)

Keep doubting Russell Wilson as one of the best, as your own risk. Even with the most tried and true testimonies from regression to the mean, Wilson is still proving the doubts wrong.

Beyond that topic, a look back to Week 13 addresses the continuing stink from the Jets pass D and the continuing success of the CHFF-exclusive King of Props. (For the former, we're thinking that this stench might be more pesky and pungent than whatever still lies in Jerry Seinfeld's car.)

As for the look ahead to Week 14, the topics include a ranking of the six best games. This includes three battles between top-10 teams, according to our Quality Stat Power Rankings.

Make sure to check out this week's six pack of topics on Stat Pack!

-----

Reference:
For those who are interested in checking out bits and pieces of this week's podcasts, every edition will include a "playlist" of sorts breaking down every segment from the podcast.

2:05 -- Mathletics: Wilson's Big-Game Russell

12:05 -- Week 13 Big Board Highlights

18:45 -- King of Props Week 13 Review

21:50 -- The Stat Pack Week 14 Power Rankings

27:55 -- Week 14 Preview via the Intelligence Index

31:25 -- Six Pack of Top Games for Week 14






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