The Defensive Hog Index, as you know, has been the most insightful indicator of postseason success in all of sports since we introduced
the Quality Stat in 2007.
It’s a stat so accurate that Trolls use it to shoot beer cans off the heads of their children to pass the time between playoff games. (Please note, the Cold, Hard Football Facts do NOT condone this activity … at least not without a few drinks to take the edge off.)
But is that brilliant performance a fluke, or is it a pigskin portent of things to come, a magical statistical elixir of football enligtenment?
We don’t know.
The Taco Bell Diet has us feeling weak and mentally malnourished. Plus, The indicator is only two years old. That’s not a lot of data and we might have just caught a wave of success of Defensive Hog-ism.
But we do know this: its worth as an indicator will be tested like never before here in the 2009 postseason. After all, three of the big favorites to win the Super Bowl, the NFC No. 1-seed Saints, the AFC No. 1-seed Colts and the AFC No. 2-seed and red-hot Chargers all fielded poor Defensive Hogs in 2009.
New Orleans finished the year No. 15 in DHI – No. 27 against the run (4.52 YPA), No. 6 forcing Negative Pass Plays (10.16%) and No. 14 on third downs (37.96%).
San Diego finished the year tied for No. 26 in DHI (with the lowly Bucs) – No. 24 against the run (4.45 YPA), No. 22 forcing Negative Pass Plays (8.45%) and No. 23 on third downs (40.39%).
Indianapolis finished the year a dreadful No. 30 in DHI (ahead of only the woeful Lions and Rams) – No. 19 against the run (4.33 YPA), No. 25 forcing Negative Pass Plays (8.10%) and No. 31 on third downs (45.02%).
In other words, success in the 2009 regular season and success in our Defensive Hog Index clashed violently this year, like Persians and Spartans hacking away at each other at the Gates of Fire.
Teams favored by the DHI
So we know the NFL’s
quaint old seeding system favors teams like the Saints, Colts, Chargers and Vikings. It even handed these teams a week off to refresh and regroup or, in the case of the Colts, to not show up to play for the third week in a row.
But who does the DHI favor? It might prove to be an important question.
As loyal CHFF readers know (Hi cousin Bo!), the No. 1 team in the DHI has won the Super Bowl each of the two years since we introduced the indicator (2007 Giants, 2008 Steelers).
Green Bay finished the 2009 season with the NFL’s No. 1 Defensive Hogs. They stuff the run as well as anyone (3.59 YPA, 2nd); they force more Negative Pass Plays than any team in football (11.61%), paced by a league-leading 30 INTs, and they’re No. 9 in third-down defense (36.02%).
But the Packers, for all the proficiency of their Defensive Hogs, are just 11-5 and the NFC’s No. 5 seed.
It’s a similar tale for most of the leading Defensive Hogs who appear in the playoffs this year:
-
The Eagles are No. 2 in the DHI, but the NFC’s No. 6 seed.
-
The Vikings are No. 3 in the DHI, and the NFC’s No. 2 seed (so that looks like a winning combination).
-
The Jets are No. 4 in the DHI, but just 9-7 and the AFC’s No. 5 seed.
-
The Ravens are No. 7 in the DHI, but just 9-7 and the AFC’s No. 6 seed.
So anything short of a Vikings Super Bowl victory, there will be an upset in the 2009 playoffs: either the top Defensive Hogs will upset the NFL’s top-seeded heavyweights; or the NFL’s top-seeded heavyweights will upset the almighty power of the Defensive Hog Index.
Stay tuned.
In the meantime, here are the final numbers from the 2009 season.
ABOUT THE DEFENSIVE HOG INDEX
