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Panthers myths vs. facts
Cold, Hard Football Facts for January 29, 2004
We've heard quite a bit of talk this week about Carolina's "great" running game, "great" defense, and all-world collection of "great" defensive linemen. In fact, these Panthers seem to get better with each passing day.
So you might wonder: Do these claims have substance? Or will they be exposed as shallow, empty and hollow when held under the white-hot spotlight of that omniscient pigskin sage, the Cold, Hard Football Facts? Let's see.
Claim: "Carolina has a great running game."
Cold, Hard Football Facts: The Panthers were sixth in the NFL in rushing yards this year (2,091), a pedestrian 15th in average yards per carry (4.0), and a shocking 24th in rushing touchdowns (nine). New England, whose running game is often likened to my friend Frankie C. (i.e., limp, flaccid, and impotent) also had nine rushing TDs this year. NE was 6-0 this year against teams that averaged 4 yards or more per carry.
Claim: "The Panthers will pound away with their running backs and control the clock."
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Over the course of the entire regular season, the Panthers ran the ball just 49 more times than New England; that is, an average of three more rushing attempts per game. The Patriots, meanwhile, averaged more time of possession than the Panthers (30:50 to 30:27).
Claim: "Led by Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster, the Panthers are running the ball better than ever in the playoffs."
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Only once in three playoff games have the Panthers topped their season average of 4.0 yards per carry.
In the playoffs, Davis has 51 carries, 266 yards (5.2 per carry) and 1 touchdown. Nearly a quarter of his yards (64) came on a single carry against the porous St. Louis run defense. Foster has 39 carries for 153 yards (3.9 per carry) and one touchdown.
If you're looking for a running back who has stepped it up in the playoffs, look no further than New England's Antowain Smith. In two games, against the league's No. 1 (Tennessee) and No. 20 (Indy) rush defenses, Smith has 38 carries for 169 yards (4.4 yards per carry) and one touchdown. Smith averaged just 3.5 yards per carry in the regular season.
Claim: "Carolina's defense is good as New England's."
Cold, Hard Football Facts: This mawkish, stinking drip has been leaking from the lips of Carolina fans and pigskin "pundits" all week. The Cold, Hard Football Facts, however, show that NE tops Carolina in every meaningful defensive category: points allowed (238 to 304); sacks (41 to 40); yards allowed per carry (3.6 to 4.0); yards allowed per play (4.3 to 4.7); and touchdowns allowed (23 to 35), among many others.
Claim: "The Panthers are just like the Patriots: They squeeze out a lot of close victories."
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Despite widespread public perception, New England actually led the league this year with seven double-digit victories, including playoffs (tied with Kansas City and St. Louis). These victories came against Philly, NY Giants, Dallas, Miami, Jacksonville, Buffalo, and Indy, a list that includes three playoff teams and two championship-game participants.
The Panthers had four double digit victories, two in the regular season and two in the playoffs, against Atlanta, NY Giants, Dallas, and Philly, a list that includes two playoff teams on one championship-game participant.
Claim: "The Panthers are just like the Patriots: They have a ball-hawking defense and an offense that takes care of the ball."
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Carolina was near the bottom of the league in turnover margin at -5. New England was near the top at +17. New England turned the ball over 24 times and caused 41 turnovers. Carolina turned the ball over 31 times and caused 26 turnovers.
Claim: "The Patriots are overrated."
Cold, Hard Football Facts: The public's belief in a team is measured each and every week by the point spread. A team that is overrated by the public draws a large amount of betting dollars. This drives up the spread (or narrows the spread for an overrated underdog), making it harder for a team to cover. Therefore, an overrated team would fare poorly against the spread (ATS).
When a team is underrated by the public, odds makers must lower the spread to attract more money (or widen the spread for an underrated underdog). This makes it easier for a team to cover the spread. Therefore, an underrated team would fare well ATS.
Throughout the year, New England has been woefully underrated by the betting public, as demonstrated by the team's jaw-dropping 14-3-1 record ATS this year. This performance ATS was the best in the NFL this year, and virtually unheard of by historical standards.
Claim: "The Patriots are overrated."
Cold, Hard Football Fact: New England's 14-game win streak is the second longest in NFL history – a fact that is hard to overrate.
Claim: "The Panthers have the best defensive line in football."
Cold, hard football facts: Carolina's defensive line certainly gets after the quarterback pretty well. Their starting front four recorded 25.5 sacks this year. This is good, but hardly spectacular. Consider that league-leader Michael Strahan of the NY Giants had 18.5 sacks by himself this year.
In three playoff games, Carolina's front four has combined for four sacks (one each).
NE playoff sack-leader Willie McGinest, a linebacker who often plays as a down lineman, has four sacks in two playoff games. NE second-string lineman Jarvis Green had three sacks in one playoff game alone.
Overall, Carolina's defensive line is small and fared poorly against the run this season when compared with New England's defensive line. Consider:
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Carolina gave up an average of 4.0 yards every rushing attempt (12th in the league) and 107.6 yards rushing per game (11th).
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New England gave up 3.6 (sixth) yards per rushing attempt and 89.6 rushing yards (fourth) per game.
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Carolina's front four averages 6-4, 294.5 pounds per man.
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New England's front three averages 6-5, 318.3 pounds per man.
It's hard to compare NE's three-man defensive line to Carolina's four-man defensive line. NE generally plays two-gap front that calls for lineman not to make tackles, but to take on blockers and open up tackling opportunities for the linebackers. However, New England's starting front three still averaged more tackles per game. Carolina's front four, meanwhile, averaged more sacks.
Carolina:
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Rucker: 14 games, 58 tackles, 12 sacks
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Buckner: 12 games, 22 and 1.5
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Jenkins: 16 games, 45 and 5
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Pepper: 16 games, 44 and 7
Average: 2.9 tackles, 0.4 sacks per game
New England:
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Seymour: 15 games, 57 and 8
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Washington: 10 games, 40 and 2
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Hamilton:16 games, 46 and 0
Average: 3.5 tackles, 0.24 sacks per game
Cold, Hard Conclusions: The word "great" gets thrown around more often than a football in a Fouts-Marino Classic Sports replay, often to the point where we accept greatness without evidence. Carolina is a pretty solid team. But its running game is not great. Nor is its defense. Nor is its defensive line. Look for New England, then, to control both sides of the line and win Super Bowl XXXVIII.
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