Cleveland at Buffalo (-1.5)
This is the type of game that only degenerates like us could love: a mid-December meeting in frigid Buffalo between two teams going absolutely nowhere.
Truth be told, if the Browns got their act together a few weeks earlier in 2010, they could be going somewhere, because they've won four of their last six and were extremely competitive in the two losses. But instead of going somewhere, a victorious trip to Buffalo is about all they can hope for this year.
The Bills had been a very competitive team, despite their record, for several straight weeks. But then at Minnesota (a 38-14 loss) last Sunday they showed why they're 2-10 and headed for another top 10 draft pick in April.
Cleveland wins the Quality Stats battle, handily, in every category except for Scoreability and the Offensive Hog Index. But even Cleveland's deficiency along the offensive line will be difficult for Buffalo's 32nd-ranked Defensive Hogs to exploit.
In the all-important battle of the passing games, the Browns are clearly superior on both sides of the ball (No. 15 in Passer Rating Differential, while Buffalo is a poor 24th).
The one thing that concerns us is the Jake Delhomme Factor. The veteran gunslinger has started in place of injured rookie Colt McCoy for the past couple of weeks (both Cleveland wins). He even managed to avoid INTs in a sharp performance at Miami last week (97.3 rating). But over the course of the season, Delhomme remains susceptible to the INT, as usual (2 TDs, 6 INTs, 65.6 season passer rating).
Buffalo's terrible Defensive Hogs, who allow 4.70 YPA on the ground (30th) should provide a welcome invitation for Peyton Hillis (962 yards, 4.4 YPA) to run wild. And Buffalo's lousy pass defense (94.43 Defensive Passer Rating, 27th) may not be capable of taking advantage of Delhomme's penchant for picks.
Cleveland 20, Buffalo 17
Atlanta (-7.5) at Carolina
After a meat-grinder of a schedule (league-best
5-2 against Quality Opponents), the Falcons, who are tied for the NFL's best record with New England, get a break this week.
After all, what more can we say about Carolina's ineptitude that hasn't already been said? The Panthers made the mediocre Seahawks look like the 1986 Giants last week. So this meeting with one of the best teams in the league doesn't bode well for them.
Oddly enough, the 1-11 Panthers are better than the 10-2 Falcons in several of our defensive indicators, including our Defensive Hog Index (11th) and Defensive Passer Rating (8th). Atlanta is No. 22 in both categories. But at the end of the day, the Panthers surrender at lot more points (25.6 PPG, 26th) than the Falcons (19.4 PPG, 7th).
One wonders how that Carolina defense might fare if every other part of the team didn't suck so bad (30th or worse in our other five key Quality Stats).
The Falcons, meanwhile, are No. 2 on the Offensive Hog Index, No. 2 in Scoreability and No. 6 in Bendability. They also have a huge advantage in Passer Rating Differential (No. 12 vs. No. 31), a huge advantage in our secret-recipe
Power Rankings (No. 2 vs. No. 32) and a huge advantage in not sucking.
Atlanta 30, Carolina 17
Green Bay (-7.5) at Detroit
The Lions continue to play competitive football ... and continue to lose close games.
Despite a 2-10 record, the Lions are just -28 in scoring differential this season. They've become a pretty efficient team on the offensive side of the ball (No. 8 in Scoreability), even with their top two quarterbacks out with injuries. Of course, years of losing breeds more losing and teams like Detroit usually find new and creative ways to lose every year. The Lions have certainly been creative losers here in 2010.
The Packers remain a Quality Stats juggernaut 12 games into the season, as they sit atop Bendability, Defensive Passer Rating and Passer Rating Differential. They're No. 2 in Passing Yards Per Attempt and No. 5 in Scoreability.
More importantly, Green Bay is No. 1 in scoring defense (15.2 PPG) while QB Aaron Rodgers (23 TDs, 9 INTs, 100.3 rating) should garner some strong MVP consideration.
Actually, given all that dominance, the Packers should be better than 8-4 at this point. We saw the same thing out of this team last year: the Packers were statistical heavyweights with Super Bowl-champ caliber numbers across the board ... and couldn't even win a playoff game.
Just a note of concern to keep in the back of your cheesehead.
Detroit kept the last meeting at Lambeau Field very close (a 28-26 loss), while third-string Lions QB Drew Stanton had a very strong game against last week against a Chicago defense that's the statistical twin of Green Bay's. Detroit should keep it closer than the experts think – before finding yet another creative way to lose.
Green Bay 26, Detroit 20
Oakland at Jacksonville (-5.5)
Two of the most unpredictable teams in the NFL meet in Jacksonville Sunday. The Raiders are fresh off their second "stunning" big win over San Diego this season. (Of course, when you beat a six-loss team twice, we guess it shouldn't "stun" anybody, should it?)
But before that win over the Chargers, Oakland suffered back-to-back embarrassing losses to Pittsburgh and Miami. The Jaguars have won four of their last five after a 3-4 start and have seized first place, for now, in the AFC South.
The Raiders have played .500 football despite an inability to pass effectively (72.65 passer rating, 5.69 Passing Yards Per Attempt). Oakland's success can be attributed to a very strong running game (4.70 YPA, 4th), an efficient offense (No. 6 in Scoreability) and a solid defensive front (No. 8 Defensive Hogs).
Jacksonville also runs the ball well (4.53 YPA, 6th) and struggles in the passing game (22nd in Passing Yards Per Attempt and 26th in Passer Rating Differential). But QB David Garrard's performance in recent weeks (three games with a 91.1 passer rating or better) has helped the Jaguars improve in that area.
Overall, the Raiders are better in most of our Quality Stats. But we all know that teams typically struggle in those long, cross-country trips. Jacksonville, meanwhile, has a slight edge in the all-important passing game and needs a win to stay atop their division.
Jacksonville 27, Oakland 24
NY Giants (-1.5) at Minnesota
Another week, another episode of "As BrettFavre Turns." BrettFavre Network actually interrupted its entire mid-day broadcasting schedule Wednesday to run BrettFavre's latest press conference.
When news of the upcoming presser was released Wednesday morning, sports yakkers around the country lit up like Wavy Gravy at Woodstock ... "It this the day that BrettFavre walks off into the sunset!?" one sports gabber in our part of the country yelled breathlessly.
Sadly, it was not the end of the road for BrettFavre. The press conference was broadcast coast to coast merely to report that BrettFavre would not practice on Wednesday.
In any case, Old Yeller performed a true Christmas miracle last week against Buffalo: He was injured on the third play of the game, but still managed to throw his 18th interception of the season. His passer rating now stands at 69.6, which puts him in Derek Anderson/Jimmy Clausen territory.
We think his greatest moment is still yet to come: they day in 2046 when Packers fans celebrate the golden anniversary of their last Super Bowl victory by digging up BrettFavre's bones and putting them under center for the playoffs because, you know, BrettFavre's bones give them the best chance to win.
His replacement last Sunday, Tarvaris Jackson, struggled with three picks, but still provided a huge spark, leading the Vikings to their highest point total of the season (38) as Minnesota won its second straight game since the firing of Brad Childress. The Vikings scored more points in the first half under Jackson (28) than they had in any entire game all year (27).
In most towns, Jackson would be the obvious starter. Not in BrettFavreVille.
The team's explosive success last week hasn't kept new coach Leslie Frazier from announcing that if BrettFavre's injured shoulder is strong enough to let him play in this game, then BrettFavre will play.
Frazier's gutless decision is great news for the Giants.
New York needs this game to keep pace with the Eagles in the NFC East. And they bring a lot of weapons into their battle against the league's worst quarterback. They rank No. 5 in Defensive Passer Rating, No. 2 in our Defensive Hog Index and they're No. 2 at forcing Negative Pass Plays.
With Old Yeller the interception machine behind center, this could get real ugly, real fast.
New York is vastly superior to Minnesota in every category except for Bendability, where the Vikings have a slight advantage (No. 21 vs. No. 23 for the Giants).
If BrettFavre plays, we expect the Giants to roll. If Frazier grows a set of balls and puts Jackson in the game, the Vikings could keep it close.
N.Y. Giants 28, Minnesota 17
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-9.5)
We have to give the Bengals some credit. They're 2-10 and going nowhere, but they still took the Saints down to the wire last Sunday.
Of course, the Bengals are 2-10 because they make stupid mistakes, like jumping offside on 4th and 2 inside their own 5-yard line to give up a gift first down with the game hanging in the balance.
So we give Marvin Lewis credit for motivating his team, but we realize that a Lewis club will never be coached well enough to win consistently. How many years of evidence do you need?
The Steelers, meanwhile, are coming off a bruising game at Baltimore last Sunday night, a game in which Ben Roethlisberger proved once again that he's one tough S.O.B. and a great clutch QB.
Big Ben took the field with a sprained right foot and had his nose splattered across his face on Pittsburgh's first offensive series. But he stayed in there for four quarters, took Baltimore's best shots with blood dripping onto his jersey, and still managed to make enough big plays down the stretch to get the Steelers into the end zone for the game-winning TD in the final 2 minutes.
The Steelers have the advantage in all seven of our keynote Quality Stats, with the biggest edge coming when their top-ranked Defensive Hogs face Cincinnati's No. 24 Offensive Hogs.
And it's no contest in the passing game, too. Cincinnati foolishly employs two of the
shiniest hood ornament receivers in the game (Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco). Yet the Bungles are a pathetic 26th in Passing Yards Per Attempt. Pittsburgh is seventh in this indicator – one that's always a strength for them with Big Ben at the helm.
The Bengals lost a number of close games, and the Steelers don't blow out a lot of people. But Pittsburgh's No. 2-ranked defense (15.9 PPG) will have no trouble swallowing Cincinnati's ineffective offense (21.2 PPG, 20th).
Pittsburgh 24, Cincinnati 14
Tampa Bay (-2.5) at Washington
You know the story by now: Tampa Bay beats up bad teams (7-0) but loses to Quality Teams (0-5).
Washington is not a Quality Team.
In fact, the Redskins, at this point in the season, can make almost any opponent look good. They've lost four of their last five, and last week was a real doozy: the 'Skins held Eli Manning to a 62.3 passer rating yet still managed to get squashed by the Giants, 31-7.
Washington ranks 23rd or worse in five of our seven keynote Quality Stats, Donovan McNabb's passer rating is down to 75.2 and the Redskins this week were forced to suspend malcontent (and highly overpaid) defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth for the rest of the season.
Otherwise, Mike Shanahan's first season in D.C. is going great.
Tampa's No. 4 Offensive Hogs have a big edge over Washington's No. 25 Defensive Hogs, and Tampa Bay's pass defense (No. 4 in Defensive Passer Rating) should make things difficult for the struggling McNabb.
Tampa Bay 24, Washington 17
St. Louis at New Orleans (-9.5)
The NFC West-leading Rams – yes, that's right,
the NFC West-leading Rams, mo-fos! – travel to New Orleans to face the defending champion Saints in this key NFC battle.
The Rams ride a much-improved defense into playoff contention. They were 31st in scoring defense last year (27.2); they're ninth in scoring defense this year (19.8 PPG).
It's not the 1985 Bears here. But the St. Louis defense is solid everywhere: No. 2 in third-down defense (stop opponents 68.15%), No. 8 on our Defensive Hog Index, No. 8 at forcing Negative Pass Plays (9.64%), No. 10 in Bendability and No. 13 in Defensive Passer Rating.
Rrookie QB Sam Bradford (81.0 rating), meanwhile, is doing the game-manager thing while avoiding those ball-breaking interceptions (17 TDs, 10 INT). Coupled with a much improved defense, it's made the Rams a viable NFL team. St. Louis is also +5 in turnover ratio, a vast improvement over 2009 (-13).
The Super Bowl champion Saints have won five in a row and are coming off two last-minute wins on the road at Dallas and Cincinnati. New Orleans is not the dominant team it was in 2009, but they're winning the close games and have positioned themselves for a strong stretch run behind their big-time offense (No. 3 in total offense, No. 8 in scoring offense).
This is a fairly close match-up in our Quality Stats. But the Saints have a huge edge in the most important place of all, at quarterback. Drew Brees boasts a 94.6 passer rating and the Saints average 6.94 Passing Yards Per Attempt (fifth). Bradford has produced that 81.0 passer rating while the Rams average 5.39 Passing Yards Per Attempt (30th).
New Orleans 31, St. Louis 24
Seattle at San Francisco (-4.5)
The NFC West is so bad that the 49ers (4-8) can move to within a game of first place with a win over Seattle and a St. Louis loss to New Orleans.
Seattle (2-4) is not a good road team and the 49ers (3-3) have at least done a decent job defending the home field this season. (The Seahawks won the first meeting in Seattle, way back in Week 1, 31-6.)
Don't expect much in the way of fireworks in this one, either: San Francisco is No. 27 in Offensive Passer Rating (74.96); Seattle is No. 28 (74.59).
We don't really trust the Seahawks, especially on the road. But the loss of RB Frank Gore has pretty much crippled an already bad 49ers offense, at least if QB Troy Smith's last two games are any indication.
Seattle 23, San Francisco 20
Denver (-3.5) at Arizona
Wow, how lucky are those Arizona season ticket holders who get to watch this beauty on Sunday between two hopeless three-win teams?
Both the Broncos and Cardinals are disasters when it comes to our Quality Stats. But Arizona is a Category 5 disaster compared to Denver's Category 4.
The Broncos fired their young and overmatched head coach/GM Josh McDaniels this week. So if the 2010 pattern holds, Denver should catch fire, as have both Dallas (3-1 since canning Wade Phillips) and Minnesota (2-0 since waving goodbye to Brad Childress).
An "opening day" at Arizona could be just what the doctor ordered for Denver's interim head coach Eric Studesville as he tries to remove that "interim" from his job title.
The bottom line, as always, is at quarterback: the Broncos at least have a good player there and
the Cardinals do not. Denver QB Kyle Orton has thrown 20 TD against just 6 INT and is 10th in the NFL with a solid 93.0 passer rating.
Arizona intends to take the field with a quarterback from the Vaudeville act of John "Red" Skelton and Richard Bartel. Skelton is a rookie fifth-round draft pick out Fordham. Bartel is an unknown third-year player out of anonymity by way of Tarleton State.
Neither has attempted a pass in the NFL.
The post-Kurt Warner Cardinals are already a disaster in the passing game: 31st in Passing Yards Per Attempt (4.89), 31st in Offensive Passer Rating (60.51) and 32nd in Passer Rating Differential (-26.67). And now they put that offense in the hands of Skelton or Bartel.
So congrats, Eric Studesville. Looks like you won the statistical interim head coach lottery this week.
Denver 27, Arizona 3
New England (-3.5) at Chicago
New England 26, Chicago 21
Kansas City at San Diego (-7.5)
We were ready to pick the Chiefs to win this game outright. It's a classic example of a fantasy-friendly team in San Diego being overrated by the pigskin public.
After all, the 8-4 Chiefs are clearly more efficient team and certainly more stable than the unpredictable 6-6 Chargers, even if Kansas City has faced just one Quality Team all year.
But the football world got the sudden news Wednesday that Kansas City's incredibly effective quarterback Matt Cassel will miss the game because of an emergency appendectomy. He's being replaced by Brodie Croyle, who has famously never won a game in five NFL seasons (0-9).
The news changes everything.
This Kansas City team is better from top to bottom than those that Croyle has played for in the past. In fact, the Chiefs are perfectly capable of shoving the ball down San Diego's throat, as the Raiders did to the Chargers last week.
Kansas City is No. 2 running the ball (4.91 YPA), thanks largely to RB Jamaal Charles.
Charles is having a season for the ages (182 attempts, 1,137 yards, 6.25 YPA). He's poised to join Jim Brown in 1963 (291 attempts, 6.40 YPA), Barry Sanders in 1997 (335 attempts, 6.13 YPA) and O.J. Simpson in 1973 (332 attempts, 6.,03 YPA) as the only running backs in history to average more than 6.0 YPA on the ground with at least 200 carries.
But Kansas City's great ground game will have trouble moving the ball so effectively against a statistically stout defense that's going to pack the box and dare Croyle to beat them.
San Diego gets back into the AFC West race, while Chiefs fans wonder if a magical season has been ruined by a freak late-season appendectomy.
San Diego 27, Kansas City 17
Miami at NY Jets (-5.5)
Both AFC East Rivals are coming off embarrassing defeats. The Dolphins lost at home to the Jake Delhomme-led Browns, while the Jets suffered one of the worst losses in franchise history Monday night at New England.
The Dolphins are a perplexing team: They can't seem to win at home (1-5) but they do very well on the road (5-1). Miami's main problem this year is offense. They don't run the ball well (3.77 YPA) and they can't throw it effectively, either (76.77 offensive passer rating). Combine those two factors with incredible inefficiency (31st in Scoreability) and you get the league's 29th-ranked scoring offense (17.9 PPG).
New York's defense was one of the tough guys on our Quality Stats block before Monday night. But after Tom Brady was through with them, New York's defensive rankings had taken a big tumble. The biggest decline was a precipitous 11-spot fall in Defensive Passer Rating, from No. 4 to No. 15.
The good news for the Jets is that the Dolphins simply do not pose anything close to the offensive danger that the Patriots did last week. New York still fields the second best defense in football against the run (3.43 YPA), so the Dolphins will likely be forced to depend upon their quarterback to win.
And that's not been a good situation for the Dolphins this year.
N.Y. Jets 19, Miami 13
Philadelphia (-3.5) at Dallas
How 'bout them Cowboys!
Dallas is now 3-1 since canning Wade Phillips and exorcising the Curse of Flutie. Those wins haven't come cheap, either. Dallas has won at the N.Y. Giants and at Indianapolis, while losing a tough one at home to the Saints.
Jason Garrett has the Cowboys playing well and primed to play a huge spoiler role down the stretch in the NFC East: this meeting in Big D is the first of two between the Eagles and Cowboys over the last four weeks of the season.
Despite their great start under Garrett, Dallas still has some major problems, such as the most inefficient defense in the NFL (No. 32 in Bendability), poor Defensive Hogs (No. 24) and a very bad pass defense, which still ranks a paltry 29th in Defensive Passer Rating – even after receiving 4 gift picks from Peyton Manning last week.
All those problems spell bad news against Philadelphia's offense, quarterback Michael Vick and the best Big Play team in football.
The Eagles quietly field the best rushing attack in football (5.24 YPA). They're No. 2 in scoring offense (28.7 PPG), No. 3 in Scoreability, and continue to ride the red-hot hand of Michael Vick, whose 105.7 passer rating this year is second only to Tom Brady's 109.5.
Philadelphia 34, Dallas 28
Baltimore (-3.5) at Houston
Baltimore is coming off a tough home loss to Pittsburgh and needs a win to stay in the AFC North hunt. The Texans still have a shot, albeit a slim one, to win the AFC South. But they can't afford any more losses.
This is another classic "good offense vs. good defense" battle.
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The Ravens rank No. 4 in scoring defense (16.8 PPG), No. 5 in Bendability and No. 6 in Defensive Passer Rating.
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The Texans rank No. 1 on our Offensive Hog Index, No. 9 in Passing Yards Per Attempt and No. 11 in scoring (24.0 PPG).
Defensively, after a week away from the basement, Houston's pass defense recaptured the bottom rung on our Defensive Passer Rating charts with another wretched performance at Philadelphia last week.
Despite a tough night against Pittsburgh's great defense last week, Joe Flacco still has a very strong 92.8 passer rating and the Ravens are 12th in Passing Yards Per Attempt. So this should be a good matchup for them against Houston's terrible pass defense.
Baltimore has a huge advantage in Passer Rating Differential (No. 6 vs. No. 22 for Houston), and that will be the difference in this game, as it usually is for the Texans.
Baltimore 27, Houston 21
Few guns provide more firepower than those of our inspirational muse, the lovely Ms. Teri Hatcher. 
