Home >> Archive
Email  |  Print

This Week in Football: statistical sugar
Cold, Hard Football Facts for October 17, 2010

By Tony Cocco
Cold, Hard Football Facts dream police
 
Back in high school, we'd often fall asleep in class and dream about our future. Maybe one of the high school hotties would fulfill our fantasy and pour a little loving sugar on us.
 
Or maybe we'd go to college like uncle Thornton Melon, and host hot-tub parties with foxy blond co-ed English majors who would help us straighten out our Longfellow.
 
It wasn't mean to be and our youthful indiscretion explains the sad state of our lives today. We've been reduced to pouring sugar into coffee behind the counter at Dunkin' Donuts simply so we can afford the one joy in our lives: a few trips to the local strip club, where we can now see the daughters of our hot high school classmates perform while Def Leppard blares in the background. 
 
 
 
If we were better students, these are the types of notes we would have taken. So take a bottle, shake it up, break the bubble, break it up, and pour over these Cold, Hard Football Facts.
 
Ben Roethlisberger brings his famous beer goggles, a 60-26 career regular season record and  a 91.8 career passer rating back to a Pittsburgh team that went 3-1 while he was serving a four-game suspension. Pittsburgh's amazing defense (No. 1 in scoring, No. 1 in Bendability; No. 2 Defensive Hogs; No. 1 in Defensive Passer Rating) carried them without Big Ben.
 
The pigskin "pundits" gushed about BrettFavre's three-touchdown spurt against the Jets Monday night. But with the game on the line, Old Yeller completed 2 of 10 for 41 yards and a 4.6 passer rating. He suffered 1 sack, 1 fumble and threw a pick-six to Dwight Lowery that sealed the game.
 
The "pundits" want to know how New England's offense can ever survive without him. But here's a better question: how New England can survive with a third-down defense that allows opponents to convert 55 percent of third downs – easily the worst rate in football?
 
The Chargers are once again a statistical juggernaut. But as their shocking 35-27 loss at Oakland last week proved, they have trouble turning those great stats into victories. It's been this way for more than 40 years in San Diego.
 
San Diego's statistical Achilles' heel is a stunning lack of defensive efficiency: No. 32 on our Bendability Index. This is bad news: teams that win the Scoreability-Bendability battle win more than 86 percent of the time here in 2010.
 
The Panthers, Bills and 49ers are all 0-5 and the only winless teams in the league through five weeks because they're getting crushed in the all-important passing battles that prove the difference between victory and defeat. These teams rank No. 28, No. 30 and No. 32, respectively, in Passer Rating Differential.
 
Detroit is just 1-4, but has been far more competitive here in 2010 than in recent years, with narrow road losses against Chicago and Detroit, and last week's 44-6 thrashing of the Rams. Credit a radically improved pass defense. Detroit has posted a respectable 83.7 Defensive Passer Rating (21st) this year. It was 107.6 in 2009 and a record-worst 110.8 in 2008 – a year in which the Lions became tge only 0-16 team in history.
 
The Falcons are 2-1 against Quality Opponents through five games, with a +10.4 scoring differential – both marks the best in the NFC. Good play in the trenches (No. 3 Offensive Hogs, No. 8 Defensive Hogs) and an efficient defense (No. 4 in Bendability) help explain Atlanta's hot start. 
 
The J-Men are No. 1 in our Power Rankings for the second week in a row after an impressive 4-1 start to the season. But five Jets teams in the Live Ball Era have raced out of the gates 4-1. All five fell apart late in the year.
 
The concept of parity is a controversial one in NFL circles. The truth is that the league has always been ruled by a small power elite – and the sport has been better off for it.

Back in high school, we'd often dream of going to college like uncle Thornton, and host hot-tub parties with foxy blond co-ed English majors who would help straigten out our Longfellow. It hasn't worked out that way: we're reduced to a life filled only by nudie bars and football data.

East
South
North
West