By Luis DeLoureiroCold, Hard Football Facts Father of the Year
Here at the nursery school of analysis called the Cold, Hard Football Facts, we treat the Quality Stats like they're our children. And, like our children, there are some that we like more than others.
As we've said before, our Quality Stats are simple, easy-to-understand pieces of data that – and this is the most important part – have a direct correlation to winning football games.
Recently, we've been spending some more quality time with our
Scoreability and
Bendability Indices to see how frequently they correlate to to victory.
We were amazed and you will be, too.
Never ones to shy away from beating a dead horse, we have followed that trend out through Week 5. It's actually been an unusually slow year for Passing YPA.
Record of teams with better Passing YPA (2010)
| Week |
Won Game |
Win % |
| 1 |
11-5 |
68.8% |
| 2 |
12-4 |
75.0% |
| 3 |
7-9 |
43.8% |
| 4 |
9-5 |
64.3% |
| 5 |
8-6 |
57.1% |
| Total |
49-27 |
61.8% |
The last three weeks have not proven the strength of YPA the way the first two weeks (and last season and most of football history) did. In fact, Week 3 was the first slate in at least 11 years that the YPA winners had a losing record (our existing data goes back to 2000).
And, in Week 5, Chicago (with 1.3 YPA) beat Carolina (1.7 YPA) in a game that did for the passing game what Keith Richards did for teetotalling.
While we still believe that YPA is the most powerful stat in football, it could learn a less or two from Scoreability and Bendability, our measures of offensive and defensive efficiency, respectively. (The best way to think about Bendability is that it quantifies the previously unquantified phenomenon of the "bend but don't break" defense.)
It took awhile, but we eventually realized that we didn't need two separate metrics since, by definition, if you win the Scoreability battle, you also win the Bendability battle. (That's our budget community college education at work).
The results were stunning.
Record of teams that win Scoreability/Bendability battle
| Week |
Won Game |
Win % |
| 1 |
13-3 |
81.3% |
| 2 |
14-2 |
87.5% |
| 3 |
16-0 |
100.0% |
| 4 |
11-4 |
78.6% |
| 5 |
12-2 |
85.7% |
| Total |
66-10 |
86.8% |
To date, teams that win the Scoreability/Bendability battle win their game at an 86.8% clip.
Finally, our father of the year has decided to forego his daughter's band recital and create a BCS-style power ranking for the Cold, Hard Football Facts.
The formula is based on a completely geeked out regression model that analyzed the relationship between these three stats and the number of 2009 wins for each team. Basically, teams will be ranked on a formula that is calculated as follows:
.45*Bendability -.50*Scoreability +1.5 * YPA.
Keep in mind this model has no idea how many games these teams have won.
Below are the rankings – with the Pittsburgh taking the top spot – followed by Washington. Carolina and San Francisco are pulling up he rear. New Orleans sits uncomfortably at 17th.
| Rank |
Team |
YPA |
Scoreability |
Bendability |
Rating |
| 1 |
PIT |
6.7 |
12.5 |
23.1 |
14.2 |
| 2 |
WSH |
7.2 |
15.3 |
22.3 |
13.2 |
| 3 |
NE |
7.3 |
10.5 |
16.0 |
12.9 |
| 4 |
IND |
7.3 |
14.6 |
17.2 |
11.4 |
| 5 |
TEN |
6.2 |
12.5 |
18.1 |
11.2 |
| 6 |
CHI |
6.6 |
15.2 |
20.0 |
11.2 |
| 7 |
GB |
6.8 |
14.4 |
17.8 |
11.1 |
| 8 |
ATL |
6.2 |
16.4 |
22.1 |
11.1 |
| 9 |
NYJ |
5.7 |
12.5 |
19.4 |
11.0 |
| 10 |
KC |
5.9 |
16.0 |
22.4 |
11.0 |
| 11 |
SEA |
6.2 |
14.9 |
19.5 |
10.7 |
| 12 |
SD |
9.1 |
16.5 |
11.5 |
10.5 |
| 13 |
DET |
5.9 |
13.2 |
16.4 |
9.7 |
| 14 |
PHI |
6.6 |
14.8 |
15.4 |
9.4 |
| 15 |
HOU |
6.9 |
15.8 |
15.0 |
9.2 |
| 16 |
DEN |
7.8 |
18.5 |
14.7 |
9.0 |
| 17 |
BAL |
6.3 |
17.8 |
17.9 |
8.5 |
| 18 |
NO |
6.9 |
17.6 |
15.0 |
8.2 |
| 19 |
JAC |
6.0 |
14.5 |
14.1 |
8.1 |
| 20 |
STL |
5.3 |
16.2 |
17.8 |
7.9 |
| 21 |
CIN |
6.4 |
17.6 |
15.5 |
7.8 |
| 22 |
NYG |
7.1 |
17.8 |
12.5 |
7.4 |
| 23 |
CLE |
6.0 |
19.3 |
17.7 |
7.3 |
| 24 |
OAK |
5.8 |
15.3 |
12.9 |
6.9 |
| 25 |
DAL |
7.2 |
20.8 |
14.0 |
6.7 |
| 26 |
TB |
6.5 |
21.5 |
17.0 |
6.7 |
| 27 |
ARI |
4.7 |
13.5 |
13.9 |
6.5 |
| 28 |
MIN |
5.9 |
21.0 |
17.3 |
6.1 |
| 29 |
BUF |
5.2 |
14.4 |
11.9 |
5.9 |
| 30 |
MIA |
6.7 |
20.6 |
13.0 |
5.6 |
| 31 |
SF |
6.1 |
23.0 |
13.0 |
3.5 |
| 32 |
CAR |
4.4 |
22.7 |
14.3 |
1.7 |
