We went a perfect 4-0 straight up picking the divisional playoff games last week and, most impressively, we absolutely nailed the Jets upset in San Diego, calling for a three-point New York win “in a pretty shocking cross-country upset.” Remember, when we call for a road dog to win outright, you can almost always take it to the bank.

 

Our beloved Ms. Hatcher beamed with aroused pride in our performance. She loves when we nail things.

 

However, we went just 2-2 against the, ahem, spread: we expected narrow Colts and Saints wins over the Ravens and Cardinals, respectively. But both  won in blowouts.

 

Our beloved Ms. Hatcher then left at the end of the weekend unfulfilled, like just about every other woman in our lives.

 

Here in the postseason, we are a meager 4-4 against the spread and 5-3 straight up. It comes after a year in which we went 144-111 against the spread, putting us ahead of most of the “pundits” – including all of those at CBS Sports.com, which is where we get our lines each week (and do so again here).

 

Here’s our look at the Minnesota-New Orleans NFC championship game here; click here for our analysis of the AFC championship game.

 

It’s been a long time since the marquee game of championship week belonged to the senior circuit. But this year, that honor does belong to the NFC.

 

The AFC gives us the game’s MVP in Peyton Manning, a plucky upstart in the Jets and the promise of an upset. But the NFC gives us the game’s top personality in BrettFavre, the most accurate passer in history in Drew Brees, a pair of star-studded offenses, two clubs that dominated the headlines for much of the season and two clubs that easily dominated opponents that seemed like contenders just last week.

 

This should be good.

 

This should also be a game that shapes up in the Saints favor. Their biggest weakness is run defense, where New Orleans ranked a meager No. 27 against the run in 2009 (4.52 YPA).

 

Even the Cardinals last week, marginal running team, put up big numbers: 14 carries for 101 yards out of its running backs (7.21 YPA). But the numbers are misleading for two reasons: On one side, Arizona gained 70 of those 101 yards on its first play from scrimmage, a TD score through the heart of the defense by Tim Hightower; but on the other side, the Cardinals utterly abandoned the run after that, so we wonder what they might have done against the Saints had they attacked their weakness (run defense) instead of their strength (pass defense) the rest of the day.

 

From Minnesota’s perspective, they most certainly will commit more heartily to the run than did the Cardinals: in last week’s 34-3 destruction of Dallas, the Vikings attempted just 24 passes against 33 rush attempts.

 

The problem for the Vikings, however, is that they simply do not run effectively these days, despite the fact that Adrian Peterson is considered an elite back. As noted earlier this week, he’s gone eight straight games without a 100-yard day and, in those eight games, has rushed 159 times for 529 yards and 3.3 YPA. Not good numbers.

 

So that battle between Minnesota’s committed but struggling ground game vs. New Orleans’ weak run defense will probably be a wash.

 

This game, then, comes down, as so many of them do, to a battle of passing attacks. And it should be quite a battle: Saints QB Brees was the most efficient passer in the NFL this year with a 109.6 passer rating; Vikings QB BrettFavre was No. 2 with a 107.2 passer rating. Both are among the 10 best seasons in modern NFL history.

 

Brees set a single-season record for accuracy, too, completing 70.62 percent of his passes; 40-year-old BrettFavre is fresh off the most efficient season in his Hall of Fame career and became the first player in history to throw 30 or more TDs with 7 or fewer INTs in the same season (ironically, his replacement in Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers, became the second later in Week 17).

 

But here’s the problem: the Saints were one of the best pass defenses in football this year. They ended the season No. 3 in Defensive Passer Rating (68.6) and among the league leaders in completion percentage against them (57.5%) and interceptions (26).

 

The New Orleans pass-defense unit appeared to waver late in the season, slipping from No. 1 to No. 3 in DPR as the club lost its final three games. But the unit also appeared to regain its footing last week in its 45-14 win over the Cardinals: the Saints shut down Kurt Warner (17 of 26, 205 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT), one of the most prolific postseason passers in history, and forced him out of the game first with an injury and then again out of necessity, as Arizona looked to boost the offense by bringing in Matt Leinart.

 

All those indicators tell us that BrettFavre and the Minnesota offense will have its work cut out, as it faces one of the most effective pass defenses in football.

 

The Vikings are not so lucky when their defense steps on the field. Yes, the Defensive Hogs, led by sack-master Jared Allen, are among the best in football: they ranked No. 3 this year, the highest-rated unit still alive. They sacked Tony Romo six times last week, with one by Allen and a game-leading three by unheralded defensive end Ray Edwards.

 

But the rest of the unit has proved largely incapable of stopping opposing passers: the Vikings ranked a dreadful No 27 in Defensive Passer Rating this year (92.5), easily the worst of any final four contender. They nabbed just 11 picks all year and now face a quarterback who threw just 11 picks in 514 attempts.

 

So, at the end of the day, this is what we have: the Vikings simply can’t contain Brees and his galaxy of stars in the passing game, and the New Orleans offense will resemble a 7 on 7 passing drill, interrupted only by the occasional pressure on the quarterback; the Vikings, meanwhile, are not multi-dimensional enough on offense to keep up with the Saints.

 

To put it in the metaphorical terms of our movie-character comparisons, that sap Gary fails to close the deal yet again, while Tony Manero regains his strut and walks off into the Super Bowl for the first time in team history.