|
The Hangover & your 11th-grade girlfriend
Cold, Hard Football Facts for October 5, 2009
 (The Monday Morning Hangover is compiled by CHFF contributors and writers from around the blogosphere, including Deshawn Zombie of 18to88.com in Indianapolis, Mark Sandritter in Seattle, Bryn Swartz in Philadelphia, Tony Cocco in his cardboard-box kingdom in Boston, and our own beloved Chief Troll wherever he may be this week.)
Yes, it's true, people: this week's Monday Morning Hangover is a lot like your 11th-grade girlfriend: it was late, and you were worried.
Sweat not, fevered friends of the Cold, Hard Football Facts. We have a good excuse.
As you know now from our spectacular Week 4 first-response team, the Chief Executive Troll was at Oktoberfest in Munich, returning from the People's Republic of Europe-istan Sunday just in time to catch the pro action in Amerikaner Fussball, as they say in Deutschland.
The weekend trip – not to mention the super-Bavarian-sized hangover that came with it – threw our entire schedule in chaos, so we apologize for ruining your Monday.
However, the rotund one did make quite an important discovery in the interest of beer-loving mankind: if you're looking to taste the original, dark, malty fest biers that made Munich famous, don't waste your time traveling overseas. In fact, the only place you'll find the original Bavarian fest beers is right here in the good ol' U.S. of A – we sh*t you not, folks – but more on that amazing discovery later this week.
Game of the Week I: Denver 17, Dallas 10
Denver's first three opponents did not impress anybody. But shutting down a star-studded offense that had scored 86 points in its first three games is like a triple shot of whiskey at 7 a.m. on the Monday after Oktoberfest – it's a real eye-opener.
It also tells us that it's officially time to label the Denver D legit.
And you know why that's important: the team that led the league in Defensive Hog Index each year since we introduced it in 2007 has gone on to win the Super Bowl (the Giants in 2007, the Steelers in 2008).
The full post-Week 4 Defensive Hog Index will be published after the Monday Night game. But, pending Minnesota's performance tonight, here's what the top five looks like right now:
2009 Defensive Hog Index (through Week 4, pending MNF)
|
|
Team |
YPA |
# |
NPP% |
# |
3down% |
# |
Avg |
|
1 |
Denver |
3.22 |
6 |
14.79 |
2 |
26.42 |
3 |
3.67 |
|
2t |
Minnesota |
3.45 |
7 |
12.24 |
4 |
22.22 |
1 |
4 |
|
2t |
Philly |
3.61 |
9 |
16.49 |
1 |
22.5 |
2 |
4 |
|
4t |
Baltimore |
2.62 |
1 |
11.59 |
6 |
33.33 |
10 |
5.67 |
|
4t |
New Orleans |
3.81 |
10 |
12.88 |
3 |
26.79 |
4 |
5.67 |
The Broncos, in other words, are among the best in the league against the run; they're among the best in the league at forcing opposing passers into mistakes; they're among the best in the league on stopping third downs and; of course, at 4-0, they're among the best in the league in the standings.
We saw pressure from the defensive front spark Denver's comeback Sunday: with the Cowboys holding a 10-0 lead, Romo was stripped by blitzing safety Renaldo Hill, while D.J. Williams picked up the loose ball at the Dallas 9.
We also saw the continued great mystery of the Broncos, the luck of the Horseshoe, Kyle Orton, on the very next play. His pass was thrown directly into the hands of Cowboys linebacker Anthony Spencer ... who completely whiffed on the pass when he would have had nothing but green grass and an easy 95-yard touchdown return in front of him. The ball ended up in the hands of Knowshon Moreno, who took it in for the 9-yard score.
The Broncos were back in business.
We call Orton the Horseshoe because good fortune seems to go this way and wins a lot of games when it doesn't seem he should, at least statistically speaking. But the truth of that matter is that he's also playing smart, efficient football.
Orton has completed just 59 percent of his passes – but he's been huge in the three most important indicators of passing success: He has a high average per attempt (7.7); he has a high passer rating (97.7) and right now he has an unbeatable TD to INT ratio (5 TDs, including a 51-yarder against the Cowboys, with zero picks in 117 attempts this year).
Pair the Horseshoe that's playing well with the league's best defense (6.5 PPG) and its best defensive front, and you have an undefeated team. – KJB
Game of the Week II: New Orleans 24, N.Y. Jets 10
Here's the story of the week: The Jets defense is good. The Saints defense is better.
So says the scoreboard. And so says our all-important Defensive Hog Index.
They not only shut down the Jets offense, but they scored two touchdowns in a two-touchdwon victory. That might have been a surprise to those pigskin "pundits" who foolishly rank defenses by the number of yards they allow. But it was no surprise to the Cold, Hard Football Facts.
For example, New Orleans ranked No. 5 on our Defensive Hog Index entering Sunday, six spots higher than Rex Ryan's headline-grabbing defense in New York. In particular, the Saints have been much better at pressuring opposing quarterbacks into negative pass plays (INTS and sacks), a key component of the Defensive Hog Index.
And it's in this area that the statistical Battle of New Orleans was won on Sunday.
The Saints forced Mark Sanchez into seven negative pass plays (three INTs and four sacks) on 31 dropbacks. That's a spectacular rate for New Orleans of forcing a negative pass play rate of 22 percent and that's winning football.
(The Saints also forced Sanchez to fumble, which is not currently counted as an additional negative pass play, but perhaps it should be.)
The Jets, meanwhile, did not force a single negative pass play on 32 dropbacks by Drew Brees. Ryan is being lauded for his high-pressure scheme that has sparked New York's 3-1 record, but his defense barely stacks up to the one fielded by New Orleans when it comes time to force passers into mistakes.
The new Week 4 Defensive Hog Index will be published after the Monday Night game. But here's how the well-hyped Jets defense and the not-so-hyped but superior Saints defense stack up in these two critical areas after Week 4:
- The Saints rank fourth in the Defensive Hog Index (tied with Baltimore).
- The Jets rank 16th in the Defensive Hog Index.
- The Saints force opponents into negative pass plays on 12.9 percent of drop backs – good enough for third in the NFL
- The Jets force opponents into negative pass plays on 5.2 percent of drop backs – bad enough for 28th in the NFL.
Pittsburgh 38, San Diego 28
If there's an opposite of a killer instinct, that's what the Steelers have this year in the wake of their stirring Super Bowl victory at the end of last season.
Week 1: the Steelers barely squeezed out a 13-10 win in Week 1 over what we now know is a bad Titans team.
Week 2: The Steelers surrendered 10 fourth-quarter points, including the winning field with 11 seconds to play, in a 17-14 loss at Chicago.
Week 3: The Steelers surrendered a 16-play, 71-yard drive to the Bungles, capped by a TD with four seconds to play, in a 23-20 loss at Cincinnati.
Week 4: The Steelers raced out to a 28-0 lead against San Diego, then the defense collapsed like a website publisher after 11 liters of Oktoberfest lager, surrendering four straight second-half TD drives.
Fortunately for Pittsburgh, the Steelers had built an insurmountable lead behind Ben Roethlisberger's best effort of the year: 26 of 33, 333 yards, 10.1 YPA, 2 TD, 0 INT and a 128.9 passer rating.
All in all, it should be considered a good win over a San diego team many consider a leading AFC contender. But the defending champs are just 2-2, fighting for life at third place in the tough AFC North, and the 2009 Steelers simply do not have the feeling of the 2008 Steelers – a team that you could count on to fight to the bitter end on both sides of the ball and emerge victorious. - KJB
West Virginia 49, Bavaria 0
This is how Oktoberfest works, folks: people fight harder than the Steelers in the fourth quarter to weasel their way into any one of these 12 massive beer tents, each of which holds thousands of people and is packed to the rafters by lunchtime. There are also tens of thousands of people drinking outside the tents, which seems like the saner option.
Regardless, there's a band playing in the middle of every tent. But contrary to popular perception, they don't play that awful oom-pah German music you tend to hear at cheesy American Oktoberfest versions.
Instead, they play a long string of sing-along rock standards, mostly from Anglo-American artists. You'd be surprised at the songs that bring down the house.
In fact, after four or five trips now to Oktoberfest, I am ready to issue my Oktoberfest all-time top five songs, based on the reaction they get from the crowds. You'll hear these songs several times a night.
5. "Hey Baby" by Bruce Channel. You absolutely know this American rock standard from the 1960s. It's a huge sing-along favorite today at college football games, European football matches and, it turns out, at Oktoberfest.
4. "Viva Colognia." It's a traditional German drinking song about Cologne (Koeln in German), an old Roman city along the Rhine in northwestern Germany. That's kind of what you expect to hear the first time you go.
3. "Sweet Home Alabama" by Lynyrd Skynyrd. Leave it to a bunch of hard-rocking American rednecks to crank up a beer-loving crowd, even in Europe. In retrospect, a bunch of scrawny Europeans who love a song about the American Deep South is really no different than a bunch of arrogant, know-it-all New Englanders who love a song about the American Deep South.
2. "You Shook Me All Night Long" by AC/DC. Don't remember this one being as popular in past years. But it seems to be a universal favorite in every country and definitely rocked the house this year.
1. "Country Roads" by John Denver. Yup, I was shocked, too, the first time. But it's a perpetual O-fest favorite and No. 1 with a bullet. Was there some sort of spiritual connection between the Alpine hill people of Bavaria and the Appalachian hill people of West Virginia that I never knew about? Nope. As one Munchener put it: "It's just easy to sing." But it brings down the house everytime. - KJB
Here's how it looks from one 2008 YouTube video:
Chicago 48, Detroit 24
The Lions boasted six consecutive quarters of quality football – but being the Lions, it took them just one play to ruin it all
The Lions, fresh off their first win in almost two years last week against the Redskins, played the Bears to a 21-21 standstill in the first half on Sunday. But Chicago rookie Johnny Knox opened the third quarter with a 102-yard kick return for a touchdown – erasing the good vibes for the Lions, who then folded faster than an elderly poker partner on a train bound for nowhere. It's like they died in their sleep.
Knox's TD opened the floodgates for a 27-point second half by the Bears, as they coasted to an easy win.
After his disastrous four-interception Chicago debut on opening night in Green Bay, Chicago QB Jay Cutler (18 of 28, 141 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 100.4 rating), registered his third consecutive game with a passer rating of 100 or better. Of course, the Lions' pass defense can make any QB look like Joe Montana; their season defensive passer rating now stands at 118.7, easily the worst in the NFL.
The news for the Lions went from bad to worse early in the fourth quarter, as rookie QB Matthew Stafford (24 for 36, 296 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 89.6 rating) – who was enjoying the best day of his young NFL career – was sacked by Adewale Ogunleye, injured his knee and left the game. Daunte Culpepper finished the game at QB for Detroit, which suffered its 14th consecutive road loss. – TC
San Francisco 35, St. Louis 0
The 49ers earned their biggest blowout victory in six years (50-14 over Arizona in December 2003) to move to 3-1 and secure their lead in the otherwise inept NFC West – where the comically bad St. Louis offense continues to flounder.
The Rams offense, this time under Kyle Boller, continued to look as poor as any unit in recent memory: St. Louis rarely mounted any kind of threat, crossing the 50 just three times and never reaching the red zone, let alone the end zone.
The San Fran defense scored three touchdowns and sacked Boller five times while limiting St. Louis to 177 total yards.
A putrid offensive performance is nothing new for the Rams who have now scored 24 points in four games and have been shut out in their two games against NFC West foes (28-0 in Week 1 to Seattle).
To sum up the haves and have nots of the NFC West another way: the 49ers defense and special teams have produces 28 points in their last two games; the Rams offense has produced 24 points in it last four games. – MS
N.Y. Giants 27, Kansas City 16
The Giants weren't No. 1 in last week's CHFF Power Rankings for nothing folks. They continued their dominance on both sides of the football on Sunday, whipping the Chiefs on the road in a game that wasn't nearly as close as the final score indicated.
The Giants, ranked third in our Offensive Hog Index after the first three weeks, validated their lofty place on that list by pounding out 156 rushing yards on 33 carries yesterday, for a nifty 4.7 average.
But the big story for the Giants' offense so far in 2009 has been Eli Manning's development into one of the more efficient passers in the NFL.
Peyton's younger brother had to leave the game in the fourth quarter with a heel injury, but while he was in there he put up another fine performance (20 for 34, 58.8%, 292 yards, 8.6 YPA, 3 TD, 1 INT, 104.0 rating). Eli's season passer rating now stands at a terrific 104.1.
The Chiefs produced 193 yards of offense and have been held under 200 yards in three of their four games. Their precipitous decline on offense, which began with the curious hiring of Herman Edwards four seasons ago and which has been well documented by CHFF, continues unabated four games into the 2009 season.
Without a doubt, Cassel is beginning to realize that life as a starting QB in the NFL is a lot easier when you've got Randy Moss and Wes Welker in your arsenal. – TC
New England 27, Baltimore 21
Bill Belichick's new-look defense continues to improve, slowly but surely.
The Ravens entered their Week 4 game in New England averaging 34 PPG, but were held to just 14 points by the Patriots. (One Baltimore touchdown came on a strip sack of Tom Brady by Terrell Suggs that the Ravens recovered in the end zone).
In the process, the Patriots lowered their team defensive passer rating by at least 9 points for the second consecutive week. Two weeks ago New England's DPR stood at a Detroit-like 108, but after yesterday's slugfest against the Ravens, it now stands at 90.8. That's still below average, but compared to what the New England pass defense looked like last year and early this year, it's definitely improving.
New England's defense also came up big when it mattered most. Lee Bodden's interception late in the second quarter deep in his own territory denied the Ravens a chance to tack on some points at the end of the first half, and two critical fourth-down stops snuffed out Baltimore's final two possessions in the fourth quarter.
Tom Brady (21 for 32, 258 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 100.8 rating) had easily his best game of the season and outdueled Baltimore's super sophomore Joe Flacco (27 for 47, 264 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 78.7 rating).
For the second straight week, the Patriots remained committed to a more-balanced offensive attack (30 rushes, 32 passes), while the Ravens on Sunday seemed to morph into a replica of the New England offense during the first two weeks of the 2009 season (47 passes, 17 runs).
Despite averaging a sensational 6.8 yards per rushing attempt on the day (Ray Rice rushed for 103 yards on just 11 attempts), Baltimore chose to have Flacco whip the ball around Gillette Stadium 47 times. In the end, the lack of a balanced offensive attack probably cost Baltimore a chance to stay undefeated on the young season. – TC
Miami 38, Buffalo 10
The Dolphins started the season at 0-3 primarily because of a terrible –6 turnover differential that stood in stark contrast to their NFL-best +17 differential in 2008.
On Sunday against the Bills, Miami registered +3 in the turnover department and waltzed to an easy victory over their AFC East rivals.
The Miami running game continues to rip through opposing defenses, as the Dolphins piled up 250 yards on 45 attempts (5.6 yards per carry). Ronnie Brown led the way for the Dolphins, rushing for 115 yards on just 20 carries and scoring two TDs.
In four games, Miami has rushed for 734 yards on 147 attempts for an amazing 5.0 YPA. The dominance on the ground made life very easy for quarterback Chad Henne (14 for 22, 115 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 92 rating), who won his first NFL start in place of the injured Chad Pennington, who is out for the season with a shoulder injury.
The Miami defense played its best game of the year against Bills QB Trent Edwards (14 for 26, 192 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT, 51 rating) while piling up six sacks.
As for the Bills, not much has gone right for them since they choked away an 11-point lead to the Patriots with 5 minutes left on opening night three weeks ago. In fact, not much has gone right for Buffalo since former coach Wade Phillips brought about the Curse of Flutie at the end of the 1999 season. The Bills now stand at 1-3 and appear to be the worst team in a much-improved AFC East. It's starting to look like another long year for the frozen football fans of western New York. – TC
Washington 16, Tampa 13
The Redskins barely survived a three-game stretch against arguably the three worst teams in the NFC by eeking out a comeback victory against the still winless Buccaneers and rookie head coach Raheem Morris.
It's a win of the ugliest kind: the Redskins went 2-1against these NFC sad-sacks (St. Louis, Detroit, Tampa), scoring 39 points and surrendering 39 points. It's safe to say that Washington is the worst .500 team in football right now.
Making his first NFL start, Tampa quarterback Josh Johnson threw a touchdown pass on his first play, leading the Buccaneers to an early 10-0 lead. But Johnson averaged just 4.8 yards per pass attempt, and quarterbacks who average fewer than five yards per pass attempt are usually found on the losing side.
Jason Campbell, meanwhile, channeled the spirit of Doug Williams with a single quarter that saved the game – he posted a passer rating in the third quarter that 11 times greater than his performance in the other three quarters (157.2 to 13.8). – BS
Houston 29, Oakland 6
The Texans and Raiders engaged in a true battle of who wanted it less. Houston entered the contest surrendering 437.7 YPG, a pace that would have made them the worst defense in history. Oakland's offense has been so bad, meanwhile, that Al Davis rolled over in the skybox that passes for his grave.
But the Raiders were not to be out-losered and proved they truly wanted it less, generating just 165 yards of offense and zero touchdowns against the sickly Texans defense.
JaMarcus Russell completed 12 of 33 passes, dropping his completion percentage this season to 39.8 percent, which might have been good when Bronko Nagurski ran the wing-T for the Bears in 1932, but is not good today.
In fact, for those of you keeping score at home, here's how Nagurski compares with Russell in each player's third NFL season:
-
Nagurski in 1932 -- 11 of 26 (42.3%) for 150 yards, 5.8 YPA, 3 TDs, 2 INTs and a 67.8 passer rating.
-
Russell in 2009 -- 43 of 108 (39.8%) for 506 yards, 4.7 YPA, 1 TD, 4 INTs and a 42.4 passer rating
Through four games, Russell has tossed one touchdown pass and thrown four interceptions. And, as noted elsewhere Monday, Oakland is dead last in the NFL, with just 4.08 yards per pass attempt.
To make matters worse, even you sitting there at home outrushed Darren McFadden Sunday (-3 yards on six carries) and the toughest thing you did all day was scorch your tongue on nacho cheese. – BS
Indianapolis 34, Seattle 17
What else can you say about Peyton Manning and the Colts? They continued to look as good as ever Sunday.
Indy scored four touchdowns on their first five possessions, against a Seattle defense that had surrendered just 48 points in its first three games. The Colts also cranked out four touchdown drives of at least 78 yards while converting 7 of 9 third downs before taking their foot off the pedal in the fourth quarter.
The three drives of 78 yards or more give the Colts 11 drives of that length or longer this season. In comparison, offensive lightwights Oakland, Cleveland and Buffalo have combined for three 78-yard-plus drives all season.
For the injury-riddled Seahawks, it was another poor performance on the road. Since the start of the 2007 season Seattle is 5-13 on the road, allowing 25.4 PPG.
Jacksonville 37, Tennessee 17
David Garrard's career this year was stumbling worse than a CHFF troll at Oktoberfest. With talk of Tim Tebow dominating the Jacksonville media, could nothing save him?
As it turns out, all it took for Garrard to save his career – at least for this week – was a visit from the suddenly pathetic Titans.
With 323 yards and three touchdowns through the air, the Jags are 2-2, and Garrard has new life.
The Titans have now surrendered an awful 107.1 Defensive Passer Rating this season – 31st in the NFL.
But it gets even worse for Tennessee: they've faced four quarterbacks (Roethlisberger, Sanchez, Schaub, Garrard) who had a combined passer rating of 83.9 in their other games heading into Week 4.
It's a shocking decline. Remember, this is the same Titans team that forged a 13-3 record behind a unit that ranked third in the NFL with a rock-solid 69.2 Defensive Passer Rating in 2008. There you have it, a Cold, Hard Football Fact as eternal as our passion for the Oktoberfest dirndl: the Titans won when they played lockdown pass defense. They're losing when they play sieve-like pass defense. – DZ
Cincinnati 23, Cleveland 20
About the best thing we can say about the Battle of Ohio Sunday is that it was one of several games we nailed like a drunk dirndl-dropping Bavarian whore at Oktoberfest.
We called for a 24-20 Bengals victory in what truly were some real and spectacular Week 4 picks.
But this one definitely falls in the ugly category for the Bengals. Just when we were starting to buy into the them a wee-bit, Cincy pulls off a performance like this, needing nearly five quarters of football to put away one of the many contenders for "worst team in the NFL" this year.
Shayne Graham booted a 31 yarder 12 minutes into overtime and, when all was said and done, the Bengals are 3-1, and enjoy, however briefly, a share of first place in the AFC North with Baltimore.
The Bengals are also on a 7-4-1 roll since starting the 2008 season 0-8 and, if not for Kyle Orton's fluke of an 87-yard TD pass to the Brandon Stokley – Stokley's only score of the season – Cincy would be a sparkling 4-0 right now.
We're still waiting for the other shoe to drop – Cincy still does nothing particularly well, despite their dalliance with an undefeated record. – KJB
|
