As Santa makes his list and checks it twice, we know exactly where our picks stand.

 

Against the spread, we seemingly can’t help being naughty. (Those of you who wager might choose a more colorful description.) We turned in a second straight losing week, going 6-8-2 against the number, and our record for the season now sits at 107-110-7.

 

Picking straight-up winners, we’ve consistently been nice. With a 9-7 mark in Week 15, we are now 143-80-1 (.641) on the year.

 

The next-to-last (or “penultimate,” as Chris Berman loves to say) week of the NFL’s regular season is upon us, and only 32 games remain. If we want to lift our ATS record above .500, we know we better be good for goodness sake. Here’s how we plan to go to town in Week 16:

 

Besides being superior in most of our Quality Stats, the Colts have the dual motivation of clinching a playoff spot and avenging their home loss to the Jaguars in Week 3.

 

Although they are in contention for a wild-card berth, the Ravens are just 2-5 against Quality Opponents, and the Cowboys represent a very formidable foe.

 

 

These teams dominate every statistical category on defense, but a slight edge goes to the Titans, who top our Relativity Index and are playing as underdogs on their own field.

 

 

The Dolphins, ranked fifth-worst in Scoreability, haven’t exceeded 16 points in any of their last three games, while the Chiefs have scored 17 or more in eight straight.

 

Since the Browns have gone four consecutive games without scoring an offensive touchdown, we feel compelled to take the points in this brutal matchup.

 

In their last two games against Quality Opponents, the Cardinals have lost by 28 (at Philadelphia) and 21 (vs. Minnesota), and the Patriots are much better suited for inclement weather.

           

 

These NFC East rivals are clearly heading in opposite directions, as the Eagles have won three in a row and climbed to 10th in Scoreability, while the Redskins have lost three straight and sunk to 31st in that category.

 

 

Under Mike Singletary, the 49ers’ only losses have come against Quality Opponents, and the Rams are the dregs of the league, languishing at or near the bottom of every “Stat That Matters.”

 

Atlanta at Minnesota (-3)                            

In the battle between the league’s top two rushers, the Falcons, who rank 24th in our Defensive Hog Index, will be unable to keep Adrian Peterson from extending his lead over Michael Turner.

 

 

New Orleans (-7) at Detroit                        

Out of playoff contention and ranking fourth-worst in Bendability, the Saints better beware of a letdown against the Lions, who desperately want to avoid the ignominy of an 0-16 season.

 

 

Carolina at N.Y. Giants (-3)                                     

The showdown for home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs is likely to be won at the line of scrimmage, and the Giants rank at least five spots higher in both of our Hog Indexes.

 

 

In going 0-7 against Quality Opponents, the Seahawks have lost by an average of 14.8 points, and they now must face the top-ranked team in Scoreability.

 

 

The Texans are trying for the first winning season in franchise history, while the Raiders stopped trying weeks ago, having lost each of their past two games by more than 20 points.

 

The pick: Texans 30, Raiders 20          

 

The Bills will be buoyed by the expected return of QB Trent Edwards, who gets to throw against a unit that ranks fifth-worst in Defensive Passer Rating.

 

 

Thanks to flex scheduling, the travel-weary Chargers must play a second straight game at 10 a.m. body-clock time, and they will face a Buccaneers team that is undefeated at home and in desperate need of a win.

 

Although assured of a losing season, the Packers would like nothing better than to play spoiler against their rivals, and a No. 3 ranking in Scoreability suggests that they can at least keep the game close.