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Wise guys: Brady injury 'unprecedented' in its impact
Cold, Hard Football Facts for September 9, 2008
We don't talk much about gambling because, well, we're all about the game itself. What you people do on your own time, with your own money, or with our analysis, is up to you.
If you knew what we did with our free time ... well, let's just say that's between us and the Dungeons & Dragons communty.
With that said, the folks from Bodog sent us some information today about Tom Brady's injury, saying that it's the single most impactful injury they've ever seen, as evidenced by the movement of bettor's money and the way it utterly re-arranged the Super Bowl odds.
“There never has been one injury, so early in the season, that has affected football and a team’s chance of winning more than the Tom Brady injury," said Bodog sports book manager Richard Gardener. "That a team like Indianapolis can go out and play terrible at home and have their odds reduced because of one injury is unprecedented. "
Several teams jumped up the list of Super Bowl favorites, as the Patriots tumbled down it. (You can compare the pre- and post-injury lists below.)
The Patriots should still make the playoffs, according to the Bodog folks, but are now considered the sixth or seventh best team in their conference ("until Matt Cassel proves differently," said Gardner).
The Patriots were prohibitive favorites as of Sunday morning, often at 2 to 1 odds, to win the Super Bowl. Bodog, for its part, had the Patriots listed at 7 to 2 odds Sunday morning. Today, Bodog has New England listed at 20 to 1, behind such powers as the N.Y. Jets (4-12 last year), who the Patriots face Sunday in the Meadowlands.
Dallas leaps into the No. 1 spot, at 4 to 1 odds to win the Super Bowl.
Odds to win the 2009 Super Bowl (as of 9/9/08)
Dallas Cowboys 4/1
San Diego Chargers 13/2
Indianapolis Colts 15/2
New Orleans Saints 10/1
Pittsburgh Steelers 10/1
Jacksonville Jaguars 13/1
New York Giants 14/1
Philadelphia Eagles 14/1
Green Bay Packers 15/1
Minnesota Vikings 15/1
New York Jets 15/1
New England Patriots 20/1
Carolina Panthers 25/1
Denver Broncos 25/1
Seattle Seahawks 26/1
Buffalo Bills 30/1
Tennessee Titans 30/1
Chicago Bears 35/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 40/1
Arizona Cardinals 50/1
Cleveland Browns 55/1
Baltimore Ravens 60/1
Atlanta Falcons 100/1
Cincinnati Bengals 100/1
Detroit Lions 100/1
Houston Texans 100/1
Oakland Raiders 100/1
San Francisco 49ers 100/1
St. Louis Rams 100/1
Washington Redskins 100/1
Kansas City Chiefs 150/1
Miami Dolphins 150/1
Odds to win the 2009 Super Bowl (from 9/4/08)
New England Patriots 7/2
Dallas Cowboys 6/1
San Diego Chargers 7/1
Indianapolis Colts 15/2
Jacksonville Jaguars 13/1
New Orleans Saints 16/1
Minnesota Vikings 17/1
Pittsburgh Steelers 18/1
New York Giants 20/1
Cleveland Browns 25/1
New York Jets 25/1
Philadelphia Eagles 25/1
Seattle Seahawks 25/1
Green Bay Packers 35/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 35/1
Carolina Panthers 40/1
Chicago Bears 40/1
Tennessee Titans 40/1
Washington Redskins 40/1
Arizona Cardinals 50/1
Buffalo Bills 50/1
Denver Broncos 50/1
Cincinnati Bengals 60/1
Oakland Raiders 60/1
Houston Texans 70/1
St. Louis Rams 70/1
Baltimore Ravens 80/1
San Francisco 49ers 80/1
Detroit Lions 85/1
Kansas City Chiefs 125/1
Miami Dolphins 125/1
Atlanta Falcons 200/1
Notes from the 2009 Super Bowl Odds Changes
- The new favorites are the Cowboys who went from 6/1 to win the Super Bowl to 4/1
- NE went from 7/2 to 20/1
- Buffalo went from 50/1to 30/1
- Pittsburgh went from 18/1 to 10/1
- Eagles 25/1 to 14/1
Odds to win the AFC Championship (as of 9/9/08)
Indianapolis Colts 3/1
San Diego Chargers 3/1
Pittsburgh Steelers 9/2
Jacksonville Jaguars 6/1
New York Jets 7/1
New England Patriots 9/1
Denver Broncos 12/1
Buffalo Bills 15/1
Tennessee Titans 15/1
Baltimore Ravens 30/1
Oakland Raiders 40/1
Cleveland Browns 45/1
Cincinnati Bengals 50/1
Houston Texans 50/1
Kansas City Chiefs 50/1
Miami Dolphins 50/1
Odds to win the AFC Championship (as of 9/6/08)
New England Patriots 2/1
San Diego Chargers 4/1
Indianapolis Colts 9/2
Jacksonville Jaguars 7/1
Pittsburgh Steelers 9/1
Cleveland Browns 12/1
New York Jets 15/1
Tennessee Titans 20/1
Cincinnati Bengals 25/1
Denver Broncos 25/1
Buffalo Bills 30/1
Houston Texans 35/1
Oakland Raiders 40/1
Baltimore Ravens 45/1
Kansas City Chiefs 55/1
Miami Dolphins 60/1
Notes from the AFC Championship Odd Changes
· The Patriots went from 2/1 to 9/1
· Indy dropped from 9/2 to 3/1
· SD from 4/1 to 3/1
· Pittsburgh 9/1 to 9/2
· Buffalo 25/1 to 15/1
Matt Cassel and Patriot Odds
Will the Patriots make the playoffs this year?
Yes -180
No +150
Passing Yards for Matt Cassel
Over/Under 2625
Touchdown Passes for Matt Cassel
Over/Under 18
Interceptions thrown by Matt Cassel
Over/Under 14
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