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Wise guys: Brady injury 'unprecedented' in its impact
Cold, Hard Football Facts for September 9, 2008

We don't talk much about gambling because, well, we're all about the game itself. What you people do on your own time, with your own money, or with our analysis, is up to you.
 
If you knew what we did with our free time ... well, let's just say that's between us and the Dungeons & Dragons communty.
 
With that said, the folks from Bodog sent us some information today about Tom Brady's injury, saying that it's the single most impactful injury they've ever seen, as evidenced by the movement of bettor's money and the way it utterly re-arranged the Super Bowl odds.
 
“There never has been one injury, so early in the season, that has affected football and a team’s chance of winning more than the Tom Brady injury," said Bodog sports book manager Richard Gardener. "That a team like Indianapolis can go out and play terrible at home and have their odds reduced because of one injury is unprecedented. "
 
Several teams jumped up the list of Super Bowl favorites, as the Patriots tumbled down it. (You can compare the pre- and post-injury lists below.)
 
The Patriots should still make the playoffs, according to the Bodog folks, but are now considered the sixth or seventh best team in their conference ("until Matt Cassel proves differently," said Gardner).
 
The Patriots were prohibitive favorites as of Sunday morning, often at 2 to 1 odds, to win the Super Bowl. Bodog, for its part, had the Patriots listed at 7 to 2 odds Sunday morning. Today, Bodog has New England listed at 20 to 1, behind such powers as the N.Y. Jets (4-12 last year), who the Patriots face Sunday in the Meadowlands.
 
Dallas leaps into the No. 1 spot, at 4 to 1 odds to win the Super Bowl.
 
Odds to win the 2009 Super Bowl (as of 9/9/08)
Dallas Cowboys                                     4/1
San Diego Chargers                               13/2
Indianapolis Colts                                   15/2
New Orleans Saints                               10/1
Pittsburgh Steelers                                10/1
Jacksonville Jaguars                               13/1
New York Giants                                    14/1
Philadelphia Eagles                                14/1
Green Bay Packers                                15/1
Minnesota Vikings                                 15/1
New York Jets                                       15/1
New England Patriots                             20/1
Carolina Panthers                                  25/1
Denver Broncos                                     25/1
Seattle Seahawks                                  26/1
Buffalo Bills                                           30/1
Tennessee Titans                                   30/1
Chicago Bears                                       35/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers                         40/1
Arizona Cardinals                                   50/1
Cleveland Browns                                   55/1
Baltimore Ravens                                   60/1
Atlanta Falcons                                     100/1
Cincinnati Bengals                                 100/1
Detroit Lions                                          100/1
Houston Texans                                     100/1
Oakland Raiders                                    100/1
San Francisco 49ers                              100/1
St. Louis Rams                                      100/1
Washington Redskins                            100/1
Kansas City Chiefs                                150/1
Miami Dolphins                                      150/1
 
Odds to win the 2009 Super Bowl (from 9/4/08)
New England Patriots                             7/2
Dallas Cowboys                                     6/1
San Diego Chargers                               7/1
Indianapolis Colts                                   15/2
Jacksonville Jaguars                               13/1
New Orleans Saints                               16/1
Minnesota Vikings                                 17/1
Pittsburgh Steelers                                18/1
New York Giants                                    20/1
Cleveland Browns                                   25/1
New York Jets                                       25/1
Philadelphia Eagles                                25/1
Seattle Seahawks                                  25/1
Green Bay Packers                                35/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers                         35/1
Carolina Panthers                                  40/1
Chicago Bears                                       40/1
Tennessee Titans                                   40/1
Washington Redskins                            40/1
Arizona Cardinals                                   50/1
Buffalo Bills                                           50/1
Denver Broncos                                     50/1
Cincinnati Bengals                                 60/1
Oakland Raiders                                    60/1
Houston Texans                                     70/1
St. Louis Rams                                      70/1
Baltimore Ravens                                   80/1
San Francisco 49ers                              80/1
Detroit Lions                                          85/1
Kansas City Chiefs                                125/1
Miami Dolphins                                      125/1
Atlanta Falcons                                     200/1
 
Notes from the 2009 Super Bowl Odds Changes
  • The new favorites are the Cowboys who went from 6/1 to win the Super Bowl to 4/1
  • NE went from 7/2 to 20/1
  • Buffalo went from 50/1to 30/1
  • Pittsburgh went from 18/1 to 10/1
  • Eagles 25/1 to 14/1
 
Odds to win the AFC Championship (as of 9/9/08)
Indianapolis Colts                                   3/1
San Diego Chargers                               3/1
Pittsburgh Steelers                                9/2
Jacksonville Jaguars                               6/1
New York Jets                                       7/1
New England Patriots                             9/1
Denver Broncos                                     12/1
Buffalo Bills                                           15/1
Tennessee Titans                                   15/1
Baltimore Ravens                                   30/1
Oakland Raiders                                    40/1
Cleveland Browns                                   45/1
Cincinnati Bengals                                 50/1
Houston Texans                                     50/1
Kansas City Chiefs                                50/1
Miami Dolphins                                      50/1
 
Odds to win the AFC Championship (as of 9/6/08)
New England Patriots                             2/1
San Diego Chargers                               4/1
Indianapolis Colts                                   9/2
Jacksonville Jaguars                               7/1
Pittsburgh Steelers                                9/1
Cleveland Browns                                   12/1
New York Jets                                       15/1
Tennessee Titans                                   20/1
Cincinnati Bengals                                 25/1
Denver Broncos                                     25/1
Buffalo Bills                                           30/1
Houston Texans                                     35/1
Oakland Raiders                                    40/1
Baltimore Ravens                                   45/1
Kansas City Chiefs                                55/1
Miami Dolphins                                      60/1
 
Notes from the AFC Championship Odd Changes
·         The Patriots went from 2/1 to 9/1
·         Indy dropped from 9/2 to 3/1
·         SD from 4/1 to 3/1
·         Pittsburgh 9/1 to 9/2
·         Buffalo 25/1 to 15/1
 
Matt Cassel and Patriot Odds
Will the Patriots make the playoffs this year?
Yes                  -180
No                    +150
 
Passing Yards for Matt Cassel
Over/Under                    2625
 
Touchdown Passes for Matt Cassel
Over/Under                    18
 
Interceptions thrown by Matt Cassel
Over/Under                    14


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