Cold, Hard Football Facts.com: What was wrong with NE's O-line? The competition

What was wrong with NE's O-line? The competition
Cold, Hard Football Facts for November 26, 2007

In short, Gillette Stadium fans were watching No. 12 play like a regular good QB, Tom Brady circa 2001-2006 instead of the SuperBrady that had been flying high for 10 games.

So, where was the Patriots’ offensive line, the unit that ESPN’s Gregg Easterbrook said would make Joey Harrington into a star? Well, they were facing a good Philadelphia front seven, something they haven’t had to do much of during their remarkable run.

New England’s line, which is excellent by any measure, and for years underrated by the media at large, had probably gotten to be a tad overrated by Sunday night’s game.

While the Patriots have played a representative NFL schedule this year – some studs, some so-sos and some bottom-feeders – they haven’t played many good defensive fronts.

In fact, they’ve played some of the worst.

Using our Defensive Hog Index rankings heading into Week 12, here’s how New England’s opponents have played up front.

Buffalo (twice): No. 32
Miami: No. 31
Cleveland: No. 29
New York Jets: No. 28
Cincinnati: No. 26 (tie)
San Diego: No. 24
Indianapolis: No. 22 (tie)
Washington: No. 19 (tie)
Dallas: No. 5.

Now, the Patriots’ output certainly helped make all of those teams look like pushovers, but there’s no getting around the fact that New England has played some terrible front sevens – only Dallas is good, while Indy and Washington would be the closest thing to respectable.

The Eagles played like a team that knew this, and their No. 10 Defensive Hogs showed no fear of the Patriots’ supposedly impenetrable offensive line.

Does any of this mean that the Patriots are vulnerable (at least a little) on the O-line? Perhaps. One thing’s for sure, future opponents Baltimore (No. 1 Defensive Hogs), Pittsburgh (No. 8 Defensive Hogs) and New York Giants (t-6th Defensive Hogs) were taking notes.

IT’S LIKE 1998 ALL OVER AGAIN

The parallels between this season and the 1998 season are striking.

Start with the fact that the main storyline for each season went something like this: good team adds Randy Moss to offense, turns into world-beater. As it was for the 15-1 Vikings.

But, like the Patriots have company in the NFL stratosphere this year, the Vikings had company in 1998. Atlanta and Denver both finished 14-2, and the Jets and Niners were both powerful 12-4 teams (both over +150 in point differential).

It was the first time there’d ever been three teams with two losses or fewer since the merger, something that could be repeated this year with some combination of Dallas, Indy, New England and Green Bay. Moss and the Vikings became the greatest non-Super Bowl team in history that year when they lost to Atlanta; he hasn’t been to the big game yet.

OH, THOSE ARIZONA CARDINALS

Kurt Warner is getting the blame for Arizona’s loss to San Francisco, but when you lose a home game to a team playing as poorly as the Niners were, there’s plenty of blame to go around.

We probably wouldn’t start by calling out the guy who threw for 484 yards, even if he did fumble away the game-winning points in the end zone.

The game, in the end, was won and lost by special teams. Both squads have been excellent on specials this year, but Arizona’s lost the battle big time Sunday.

In the end, the Cardinals lost on a missed OT field goal pushed back by a penalty (after Neil Rackers had hit the game-winner) and two bad decisions on a punt return – Steve Breaston returned it from inside his five, and a Cardinal penalty backed them up to the goal line.

Warner + goal line + pressure = fumble, game over.

This came after Breaston’s big return on the previous drive was canceled by another Arizona penalty. Also, Arizona punter Mike Barr had a 17-yard punt and two line drives returned for big gains by San Fran's Mike Lewis.

Take away the special teams errors, and the Cardinals would be at 6-5 and the toast of the NFL … well, at least the toast of the Southwest.

BONZO UPDATE

If you’re not following the remarkable success of Bonzo, our incredible coin-flipping, spread-busting NFL prognosticator, well, you should be.

Bonzo, by flipping coins – heads means a home-team cover, tails a road-team cover – came into Sunday’s games with a 96-65 record. Yes, that’s 31 more wins than losses, a remarkable “screw you” to the realm of random chance and to the world of handicapping at large.

Bonzo went 7-5 on Sunday’s games after a 2-1 mark on Thanksgiving, meaning he’s been at .500 or better all 12 weeks this season.

We did a search around the Internet a couple weeks back looking for a better record but couldn’t find one.

Not bad, for an ape.

YOU STAY CLASSY, CLASS OF 2006

While the 2006 draft class might still turn out to be everything it was cracked up to be, things aren’t going great for the top sophs in the NFL this year.

A look at the top 10:

Mario Williams, Houston: Six sacks for the No. 30 Defensive Hogs (through Week 11).
Reggie Bush, New Orleans: Longest offensive play all year is 25 yards.
Vince Young, Tennessee: 61.3 rating, 4.4 rush average.
D’Brickashaw Ferguson, Jets: Solid left tackle for No. 20 Offensive Hogs.
A.J. Hawk, Green Bay: 72 tackles for 10-1 Packers.
Vernon Davis, San Francisco: TE has 36 catches, 352 yards.
Michael Huff, Oakland: Full-time starter for good Oakland secondary.
Donte Whitner, Buffalo: Full-time starter for so-so Bills secondary.
Ernie Sims, Detroit: 94 tackles as starting OLB for Lions.
Matt Leinart, Arizona: injured.

It’s not exactly a list of awe-inspiring accomplishment – in fact, none of the 10 even get a sniff of the Pro Bowl in their second year (although Hawk could get there on name value/team performance).

Still, all of those players struggling (or hurt) have bright futures, and the rest of Round 1 is thick with guys who have been great (Jay Cutler, Haloti Ngata, Kamerion Wimbley, Antonio Cromartie, Tamba Hali, Santonio Holmes, Joseph Addai). Add DeMeco Ryans, Devin Hester, Maurice Jones-Drew and Marcus McNaill from Round 2, and that’s a lot of star power.

But the guys at the top aren’t pulling their end of the deal right now.

THE PLAYOFF PICTURE

NFL.com does a splendid job breaking down who needs to do what to make the postseason, and following this link is highly recommended.

But here are some basic facts:

1. The Seahawks are pretty much in. Yes, the Seahawks are capable of losing to anyone, but their five remaining opponents have a winning percentage of .382. They’re two games up on the Cardinals who have a slightly tougher schedule (.436) and are the Cardinals.

2. Minnesota just might do it. The Vikings host Detroit Sunday, and a win puts them at 6-6. Then it’s at San Fran, host Chicago, host Washington, at Denver. The Vikings looked downright powerful in wins over San Diego and the Giants and close losses to the Packers and Cowboys – now, can they beat the also-rans?

3. The Bears aren’t going to do it. All five teams on their schedule are at least good, and they have to go to Minnesota and Washington while hosting Green Bay, the Giants and New Orleans. Unless Devin Hester is cloned, forget it.

4. The Browns could win 11 games. They have the easiest closing schedule of any contending team (.346 win percentage). Count them in.

5. San Diego probably just needs to beat Denver in Week 16 to get in. With that epic win in Denver under their belts and a one-game division lead, a sweep of the Broncos should be enough. If the Chargers go 8-8 and beat Denver again, the Broncos would need to go 4-0 in their other five games to win the West.