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They're running up the stats!
Cold, Hard Football Facts November 8, 2007
It’s pretty well accepted that the Patriots have the best offense in the NFL this year. Being on pace for the all-time scoring record is enough to prove their No. 1 status in our book.
But who has fielded the best defense in the first half?
As we accumulated data, several good candidates emerged: Pittsburgh (6-2) allows just 12.25 points per game and tops our Bendability Index; Tennessee (6-2) rides a solid D that ranks No. 1 in Defensive Passer Rating and No. 2 in our Defensive Hog Index,two Quality Stats; the surprising Indy (7-1) defense has extended its dominant defensive run of the 2006 playoffs into the 2007 season.
To determine who had the best defense, we started with what are probably the two most important measures of defensive strength: yards per play (YPP) allowed and points per game (PPG) allowed.
However, to take strength of schedule into account, we then took the numbers each defense has compiled and compared them to the average performances in other games of the offenses they’ve played.
In other words, if Team A gives up 15 PPG against a schedule of teams that collectively allows 20 PPG (in games not involving Team A), then Team A is 5 points better than a random opponent.
This isn’t dead-solid perfect, but it’s as close as a bunch of beer-swilling football types are going to get.
The results were pretty surprising, and although we could keep you in suspense to the end, we’re feeling charitable. The best defense in football belongs to …
The New England Patriots.
Maybe.
At first blush (and we did blush when we saw the way New England was running up the stats), Pittsburgh has an obvious edge over New England:
- The Steelers allow 4.36 YPP and 12.25 PPG, both the best numbers in the league.
- The Patriots allow 4.86 YPP and 16.33 PPG, both significantly behind Pittsburgh’s numbers.
In fact, the Patriots are only No. 9 in YPP and No. 5 in PPG.
However, the Patriots have also played one of the toughest schedules in the league in terms of opposing offenses. Pittsburgh has faced a much weaker slate of offenses.
New England’s schedule has included the No. 2 (Dallas), No. 3 (Indy) and No. 4 (Cleveland) scoring offenses in the league, and also No. 8 Cincinnati and No. 10 San Diego. Pittsburgh’s schedule has included only two Top-10 offenses, No. 4 Cleveland and No. 8 Cincy.
Pittsburgh has played only two top-ten offenses (Cleveland and Cincy), plus No. 13 Seattle. The other five opponents are all in the bottom half of the league in scoring.
- New England’s opponents have averaged 24.85 PPG in their other contests – 8.52 PPG more than they’ve scored against the Patriots (16.33).
- Pittsburgh’s opponents have averaged 20.41 PPG in their other contests – 8.16 PPG game more than they scored against Pittsburgh (12.25).
So a slight advantage goes to New England
Indianapolis ranks third, holding opponents to 6.93 PPG fewer than they score against everyone else. Tampa ranks fourth (5.6 PPG fewer) and Tennessee stands at fifth (5.52 PPG fewer).
In terms of comparative yards per play, the Steelers have the edge:
- Pittsburgh opponents average 5.23 YPP against everyone else and 4.36 YPP against the Steelers – a difference of 0.87 yards per play.
- New England opponents average 5.58 YPP against everyone else and 4.86 YPP against the Patriots – a difference of 0.72 yards a play.
So, comparatively, New England is winning the scoring battle, Pittsburgh is winning the yardage battle.
How to break the tie? Both teams have allowed two non-offensive touchdowns, so they’re not a factor.
The Steelers are ahead in Defensive Passer Rating (71.4 to 73.9). The Patriots are ahead on the Defensive Hog Index (NE tied for 4th, PIT in 8th). That would be a wash, too. But with the Patriots facing much tougher offenses you have to call it an edge for New England.
When you factor in the amount of garbage time the Patriots have played – about two full games worth in nine – their numbers look even better.
Despite huge leads and despite playing soft, let-em-go-up-the-field-slowly defenses in several second halves, the New England defense has put up remarkable numbers.
And since winning and losing remains the ultimate measure of success, the New England’s 9-0 record does match up favorably with Pittsburgh’s 6-2 mark.
So there you have it. New England just might have the best defense in the league, to go with the best offense ever.
Who knew?
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