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Del Rio takes keys from stumbling Leftwich
Cold, Hard Football Facts for August 31, 2007
By Kerry J. Byrne
Cold, Hard Football Facts designated driver
Byron Leftwich is a gritty, old-school quarterback who endeared himself to us when he was back at Marshall, when his teammates had to carry him down the field on a bum leg so that he could lead his team on a drive, despite being unable to walk.
We’ve also tried to drive many times when we couldn’t walk. So we can relate to Leftwich.
Thankfully, our buddies were smart enough to take away the keys.
And so, too, was Jacksonville coach Jack Del Rio, who Friday announced that the keys to the Jaguars offense will be handed to Leftwich’s more productive back-up, David Garrard.
Leftwich, a No. 7 overall pick in 2002, will probably be traded or “released” in euphemistic NFL parlance – or what we call “dumped like yesterday’s burritos.”
The decision shocked many in the football world.
It did not shock the Cold, Hard Football Facts.
There was plenty of evidence more than a year ago that Leftwich was too inebriated (metaphorically speaking, of course) to drive the Jacksonville offense into the future. In fact, here’s what we wrote back on August 14, 2006:
"Is the wrong guy starting in Jacksonville?
"Byron Leftwich is a promising young talent who helped guide Jacksonville to a 12-4 record last season. His ability to protect the football – Leftwich tossed just 5 INTs last year – was key in a league where INTs translate directly into losses.
"But he has all the mobility of a beached whale, has struggled with injuries and, to put it most bluntly, has proven no better than his backup, David Garrard. In fact, one could argue that the Jaguars might be better off with the far more athletic Garrard leading the team. Each quarterback saw significant playing time last year, so we have a pretty decent basis for comparison."
Fast forward to today
As usual, you, the Cold, Hard Football Facts reader (Hi Mom!), was well ahead of the "pundits," the fans and the coaches who adhere to conventional wisdom.
The Cold, Hard Football Facts were highly comparable at that point last year: Leftwich averaged twice as many TD passes per game in 2005, but Garrard:
- was careful with the ball
- was more elusive on ground
- won 5 of 6 games
- and – most importantly – guided the Jacksonville offense to more points per game, even if he threw fewer TD passes.
It was the old story: do you want the guy who puts up better fantasy numbers, or the guy who does a better job of guiding your team down the field?
The answer is obvious, even to you there wondering if you really need four more for the road.
The trend continued last year: Jacksonville scored more points with Garrard leading the offense. He also developed into a generally more accurate and productive passer.
Here's how the performances of the two quarterbacks stack up over the past two years:
|
Garrard |
|
Leftwich |
|
10-6 |
Record |
10-6 |
|
24.75 |
Points Per Game |
21.0 |
|
59.4 |
Completion Percentage |
58.4 |
|
14 (3.4%) |
TD passes |
22 (4.5%) |
|
10 (2.4%) |
INT |
10 (2.1%) |
|
6.97 |
Passing YPA |
6.77 |
|
178.2 |
Passing YPG |
205.1 |
|
5.41 |
Rushing YPA |
1.93 |
|
26.4 |
Rushing YPG |
6.75 |
|
3 |
Rushing TDs |
4 |
Taken in total, the Cold, Hard Football Facts were fairly even, though Garrard did lead the team in the two most important categories: passing yards per attempt and points per game.
The anecdotal evidence has also been in his favor. Last year, in a disappointing 8-8 season:
- the Jaguars suffered their worst loss with Leftwich in charge – a humiliating 27-7 skewering on the horns of the lowly Texans.
- the Jaguars enjoyed their greatest victory with Garrard in charge – a resounding 44-17 December win over eventual Super Bowl champion Indy.
Sure, it was the running game – a mind-numbing 375 yards on the ground – that carried the Jaguars to victory in that game against the Colts. Garrard attempted just 14 passes.
But he is the best man for the job in Jacksonville – as the past two years of work seem to indicate.
The 2007 preseason has worked in Garrard’s favor, too. In fact, there's really no comparison. Over the otherwise meaningless games of August:
- Leftwich completed 19 of 38 passes (50%) for 226 yards, 5.9 YPA, 1 TD and 0 INT
- Garrard completed 36 of 47 passes (76.6%) for 456 yards, 9.7 YPA, 1 TD, 0 INT
One other issue hung over Leftwich, too … one that plagued him on that day we admire back at Marshall in 2002: injuries.
Leftwich, who’s just 27 years old and entering his fifth season, missed two games in 2004, five games in 2005 and 10 games in 2006.
The trends aren't good, folks.
Leftwich was stumbling around the driveway and fumbling to get his keys into the door ... two pretty good signs it was time to take them away.
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