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Voters tackle HOF bias
Cold, Hard Football Fact for March 2, 2007
In the gridiron gang wars, opinionated pigskin “pundits” and fact-filled CHFF trolls get along as well as Bloods & Crips, Jets & Sharks … or, hell, Jets & Dolphins.
But occasionally the weight of the Cold, Hard Football Facts is so overwhelming that the competing gangsters of gridiron analysis can’t help but find common ground.
This is one of those times, and the sake of pigskin posterity, the legitimacy of the Pro Football Hall of Fame selection process, hangs in the balance.
The short version of the problem is this: Modern Era offensive players historically enter the Hall of Fame at a rate of nearly 2 to 1 over defensive players. In recent years, with a growing emphasis on scoring, the gap has grown wider. Offensive players of the “ Live Ball Era” (1978-present) have entered the Hall of Fame at a rate of greater than 3 to 1 over defensive players (19 to 6, see accompanying charts).
“The ratio is, long term, obviously concerning,” said Peter King, the popular Sports Illustrated football columnist and Hall of Fame voter, in a recent interview with the Cold, Hard Football Facts. “We should be an egalitarian place for any player.”
But the problem’s only getting worse. Note the Hall of Fame Class of 2007: the bronze busts of five offensive players will be unveiled in Canton in August. And just one bronze bust will be handed to a defensive player.
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Offense |
109 |
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Defense |
63 |
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Ratio |
1.7 to 1 |
There’s another bust we see each year, too: the Hall of Fame voting process.
The topic is no longer in dispute and there is no counter argument:
Hall of Fame voters treat offensive and defensive players differently.
Offensive players with limited productivity who garnered big headlines are ushered into the Hall of Fame (Hello, Lynn Swann!), while defensive players who dominated the game often find themselves on the outside of football immortality looking in – forgotten by the very same voters charged with preserving the legacy of the game’s greatest players.
“I certainly don’t think it’s a conscious thing,” said Howard Balzer, a St. Louis sports radio personality, secretary of the Pro Football Writers of America and Hall of Fame voter. “But I think we all get caught up on offense.”
The “pundits” – those like King and Balzer, who vote for Hall of Fame induction – are finally taking notice of the bias that plagues the HOF selection process. And, finally padded with the Cold, Hard Football Facts, they vow to tackle a pigskin prejudice toward those gridiron greats who spent their careers on the wrong side of the ball.
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Offense |
55 |
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Defense |
35 |
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Ratio |
1.6 to 1 | Inside "the room" in Canton
Rick Gosselin covers football for the Dallas Morning News and, according to everyone we’ve talked to, he’s one of the best and most devoted football men in the country. He’s also fighting mad about this issue.
He came to our discussion in a manner that always impresses us and will impress you: he came to the battle armed with a razor-shape scythe of Cold, Hard Football Facts that cut down any illusion of equality in the HOF process.
“I can’t explain a lot of things that go on in that room,” said Gosselin, using a term – “the room” – which is voter parlance for the final vote that takes place when all 40 Hall of Fame committee members meet in Canton at the end of each year. Voters get together in “the room” following a series of remote preliminary votes to whittle down an original list of 100 candidates handed to them at the start of each football season.
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Offense |
35 |
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Defense |
22 |
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Ratio |
1.6 to 1 |
In “the room,” the case is made for each of 17 finalists, said King.
This list includes 15 regular candidates and 2 senior candidates, who are represented by a sub-committee of nine “senior” Hall of Fame voters.
Typically, the voter from the city in which the individual in question played will initiate the discussion and argue on his behalf. Discussions range from 5 minutes to, in the most recent meeting, the hour that was devoted to 2007 finalist Paul Tagliabue.
The final vote is taken in “the room” and a minimum of three and a maximum of six men are inducted into the Hall of Fame. Candidates need a “yea” from at least 32 of the 40 voters. If they get 32 or more votes they’re in. If they get fewer than 32 votes, it’s wait ‘til next year.
If a player can’t get in “the room” it means he can’t even get past the preliminary votes and become one of the 17 finalists the voters discuss.
“Just look at the All-Decade Teams,” said Gosselin. “ Alex Karras is on the All-Decade team (1960s). He can’t get in the room. Bobby Boyd is on the All-Decade team (1960s). He can’t get in the room. David Robinson won (multiple) championships and is on the All-Decade team (1960s). He can’t get in the room. Why can’t any of these players get in the room?”
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Offense |
19 |
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Defense |
6 |
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Ratio |
3.2 to 1 | The "stats" issue
The most obvious answer to Gosselin’s question – the most obvious reason for the bias that plagues the voting process – centers on the issue of statistics.
In baseball, for example, it’s fairly easy to compare the qualifications
of every player in the game. Pitchers have one set of stats,
hitters another, and fielders a third. All these stats are incredibly well documented historically, appear in voluminous numbers thanks to the 162-game seasons, and most are easy to understand.
It’s easy, in other words, to compare the HOF qualifications of every player who’s ever stepped on a baseball diamond.
The football gridiron is a much tougher place to get noticed.
Only three positions – quarterback, running back and wide receiver – have easy-to-compare numbers attached to their names.
All these are offensive positions. And players at these three offensive positions are normally ushered into the Hall of Fame fairly quickly. Forty-eight Modern Era running backs and quarterbacks are in the Hall of Fame, compared with a total of just 63 defensive players.
“The skill guys have all the numbers,” said Balzer.
Defensive statistics, when they do exist, are hard to trust, “unofficial” or not well documented.
As shocking as it might seem, tackles, the most rudimentary defensive measurement, are not even an official NFL statistic (each team tracks the tackles of their own players). Sacks did not become an official statistic until 1982. And INTs can be a notoriously inaccurate way to rate defensive backs.
“If (a great DB) has just 1 or 2 interceptions in a season, it probably means that nobody’s throwing at him,” said Cliff Christl, a Hall of Fame voter and reporter for the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel.
There’s probably no higher praise for a cornerback than for an offense to avoid throwing the ball his way. But "games ignored by opposing offenses" is not something you can capture in an easy-to-swallow stat.
SI’s King argues that defenders often “cancel each other out.” This year, for example, four pass-rushing specialists were among the 17 finalists: Andre Tippett, Fred Dean, Richard Dent and Derrick Thomas.
Not one made the final cut.
It is possible that selectors who wanted to vote in a defender split their vote among the four. But it shouldn’t be a problem. Imagine if four top offensive players – say quarterbacks or receivers – were among the 17 finalists. You would think at least one, and probably more than one, would garner enough votes to enter the Hall of Fame.
Defenders do not have that luxury.
What's a DB gotta do to get a drink around here?
The lack of statistics for defensive players does not explain the whole problem, argues Gosselin, the Dallas football writer.
“Even the guys on defense with stats don’t get in,” he said.
He cites a long list of INT leaders who have been forgotten by Hall of Fame voters. Ken Riley is fifth on the all-time INT list (65). He’s not in the Hall of Fame, or even up for discussion. Only six players picked off more passes than Dick LeBeau (62). He’s not in the Hall of Fame, or even up for discussion.
“Riley is No. 2 all-time in interceptions among cornerbacks,” said Gossellin. “Yet his name never even comes up in conversation. Can you imagine the No. 2 rusher or No. 2 passer not being in the Hall of Fame?”
DBs seem to bear the brunt of the bias against defenders. Consider these Cold, Hard Football Facts:
- Only one “Live Ball Era” (1978-present) defensive back is in the Hall of Fame: CB/S Ronnie Lott
- Some 1,000 defensive backs have joined the NFL since 1971. But just two defensive backs who entered the NFL since 1971 are in the Hall of Fame: Lott and CB Mike Haynes.
- Of the nine safeties on the All-Decade Teams of the 1970s and 1980s, just three are in the Hall of Fame: Ken Houston, Larry Wilson and Lott. No other All-Decade Team position is so under-represented in Canton.
The NFL has made concerted efforts to open up the passing game since the 1970s. Defensive backs have become sacrificial lambs out on the field in this “ Live Ball Era.”
Those sacrifices have carried over into the Hall of Fame voting process. DBs can’t buy a break on the field. And they can’t buy their way into Canton.
To put the dearth of HOF defensive backs another way, if you’re a 50-year-old man who began watching football in 1971, at age 14, you’ve seen just two Hall of Fame defensive backs enter the NFL.
The bigger issue then, beyond just statistics, is publicity. Heisman Trophy and NFL MVP voters don’t even know defense exists. These awards – the biggest individual honors in football – almost always go to offensive players who garnered the most headlines in a given season. All 71 Heisman Trophy winners played a skill position on offense, most full-time and all at least part time. The Associated Press has honored an NFL Most Valuable Player every year since 1957. Just four defenders have won the award.
The bias toward offensive players is so blatant that these awards are a joke among true football fans.
The difference between these awards and the Hall of Fame is that we expect a great deal more from the voters charged with handing out football immortality.
Defenders forced to play waiting game
Even those defenders who do find their way into Canton often have to wait an unusually long time for the honor.
Just look at the Class of 2007. Roger Werhli is the lone defensive player in the group of six inductees. His career began a few weeks after Woodstock and ended a quarter-century ago.
He’s not the only HOFer who lingered in pigskin purgatory for an unusually long time.
- Jack Youngblood was a dominant, exceptionally durable defender for the L.A. Rams who led two of the 10 stingiest defensive units in modern NFL history and famously played in Super Bowl XIV on a broken leg. Youngblood, in other words, represents everything about the sport the Hall of Fame is supposed to represent. He waited 12 years to get into the Hall of Fame
- Willie Wood was a perennial All-Pro defensive back who won five NFL championships with the Green Bay Packers. He was a 10-time Hall of Fame finalist before final getting into Canton on this 13th try.
- Carl Eller was a dominant defensive end for the famed “Purple People Eaters” of Minnesota and averaged (unofficially) better than a sack per game at the height of his career in the mid-1970s. He waited 20 years before being inducted into the Hall of Fame.
Perhaps no more deserving player suffered longer than Paul Krause. The Minnesota safety still holds the all-time INT record (81). He waited 14 years before voters saw fit to elect him into Canton. It's hard to imagine the all-time leader of any major offensive category waiting so long for Hall of Fame honors.
Why All-Decade Teams matter
Defensive statistics can be misleading, as Milwaukee's Christl noted. And as the Cold, Hard Football Facts have shown, defensive statistics are not very trustworthy to begin with.
Gosselin chooses to put a lot of stock in the All-Decade teams as a sign of Hall of Fame worthiness.
Football fans and HOF voters might also want to consider All-Decade teams as a fairly good indicator. Here’s why:
The very same committee of 40 that votes for Hall of Fame inductions votes for the NFL All-Decade Teams. The committee membership changes regularly. But the Hall of Fame committee in 1989, for example, was the same committee that voted for the 1980s All-Decade Team.
“If this group decided that a player was one of the best players of his era, he should at least be discussed for the Hall of Fame,” said Gosselin.
More often than not, though, the All-Decade players who fail to even make the discussion in “the room” are defensive players.
And, then, among those that do get in the room, they’re often overlooked.
The most recent vote was an obvious example. Of the 17 finalists in “the room,” one was former commissioner Paul Tagliabue and one was punter Ray Guy. Among the other 15 up for discussion, 10 played offense and just five played defense.
Already, the deck was stacked against defenders. But five of those 10 offensive players were inducted into the Hall – that would be half of the offensive finalists for those of you keeping score at home. Just one of the five defenders was inducted – that would be 20 percent of the defensive finalists.
The bias against defense players seems to haunt them every step of the way.
What's a poor "pundit" to do?
There are obviously bigger and more important issues in the world than who gets into the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
But here on Planet Pigskin, in the world of American football, a bronze bust in Canton is the ultimate honor. It should be treated with more care than that we see from the Downtown Athletic Club. Great players should not be at a disadvantage for the sport’s ultimate honor simply because they played defense.
Some voters believe the problem’s only going to get worse before it gets better, thanks to the sudden influx of “ Live Ball Era” offensive players with big numbers about to become Hall eligible. (For more on just how startling the upswing in offense was in the Live Ball Era, see our historic analysis of passer rating here.)
“What about Cris Carter?” said King. “What about Tim Brown? Do we say that a player automatically goes in because he has over 1,000 catches?”
There are some ways to attack the issue. One Cold, Hard Football Facts reader suggested voting in offensive and defensive players on separate ballots, thereby ensuring more equal treatment. The voters we talked to for this story were cool to that idea.
Then again, the issue might not be that it’s too hard for defensive players to get into the Hall of Fame. The issue might be that it’s too easy for offensive players to get into the Hall of Fame.
Ultimately, the solution to the problem – the answer to the open and irrefutable bias that plagues the Hall of Fame process – lies with the voters themselves.
“I think what we need to do as selectors is to talk to more people and get a better handle on some of these defenders who were truly great players,” said Christl.
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