SAN DIEGO (14-2, No. 1 seed)
Quality wins: (4) Denver, Denver, Kansas City, Seattle Quality losses: (2) Ravens, Chiefs
Signature game: 49-41 win over Bengals on Nov. 12, which proved San Diego can outscore anybody. They'll need to win that way in the postseason.
Why they can win it all: The Chargers boast the top offense in football, led by perhaps the greatest offensive weapon of our generation. Both losses this year came against AFC playoff teams (Baltimore, Kansas City), but both were three-point games on the road. San Diego gets to sit at home until the end of January ... or the start of the 2007 season.
Why they can't win it all: Despite a bevy of big names, the defense remains suspect (18.9 PPG). Only five teams have won Super Bowls with lousier defenses: 1968 Jets (20.0 PPG), 1980 Raiders (19.1 PPG), 1983 Raiders (21.1 PPG), 1987 Redskins (19.0 PPG) and 1998 Broncos (19.3 PPG). Don't forget Marty Ball: There is no rational explanation for Schottenheimer's 5-12 postseason record other than the coach himself.
Randomly determined likelihood they will win it all: 20 percent
BALTIMORE (13-3, No. 2 seed)
Quality wins: (3) Chargers, Saints, ChiefsQuality losses: (1) Broncos
Signature game: Outgunned Saints, 35-22, in New Orleans, proving they have some horsepower on offense.
Why they can win it all: The Ravens are the strongest all-around team in the postseason. They're 3-0 against playoff teams and boast the best average ranking across the board in our Cold, Hard Football Facts Quality Stats. They've surrendered a Super Bowl championship-worthy 9.1 PPG over the last seven weeks of the season.
Why they can't win it all: The lone chink in Baltimore's armor is its 31st-ranked rushing attack (3.44 YPA). Only the pathetic Cardinals were worse. A playoff opponent with a stout run defense, like the Patriots or Jets, could make the Ravens offense one-dimensional.
Randomly determined likelihood they will win it all: 25 percent
INDIANAPOLIS (12-4, No. 3 seed)
Quality wins: (4) Jets, Broncos, Patriots, Eagles Quality losses: (1) Cowboys
Signature game: A 34-31 win over the Broncos on Oct. 29. Peyton Manning had to be nearly perfect – and was.
Why they can win it all: In past years, Indy was statistically dominant but wilted against tough competition. This year, the Colts are not as tough on paper. But on the field where it counts, they had the NFL's best record against Quality Opponents in 2006. And don't forget Klecko Power!
Why they can't win it all: The Colts officially end the 2006 season with the seventh-worst run defense in NFL history. Overcoming that handicap in a playoff tournament featuring Larry Johnson, Corey Dillon and LaDainian Tomlinson will be something just short of a miracle. The 2006 Colts typified the team's annual December swoon with a 2-3 record in the month despite not facing a single Quality Opponent. No team faces more pressure: Getting close just won't cut it for fans or, finally, for "pundits."
Randomly determined likelihood they will win it all: 10 percent
NEW ENGLAND (12-4, No. 4 seed)
Quality wins: (2) Jets, Bears Quality losses: (3) Colts, Jets, Broncos
Signature game: Gut-check 17-13 win over Chicago in perhaps the most physical game of the 2006 season.
Why they can win it all: The bloodthirsty sharks that pass for "pundits" in New England have preached nothing but doom and gloom since September. But the 2006 Patriots quietly won 12 games, third-most in franchise history, field the stingiest scoring defense in franchise history (14.8 PPG), and boast the second-greatest scoring differential in franchise history (+148 points). The Patriots have the best big-game quarterback of our generation and a locker room filled with more than 50 Super Bowl rings. Only Baltimore offers a more balanced all-around team, according to our Quality Stats.
Why they can't win it all: The Patriots turned the ball over repeatedly against playoff-caliber opponents: 14 in four games against the Jets, Colts and Bears. Against quality opposition, the Patriots did not measure up to the standards of their 2003 or 2004 Super Bowl-winning teams or, more importantly, to the better teams in the AFC in 2006.
Randomly determined likelihood they will win it all: 10 percent
N.Y. JETS (10-6, No. 5 seed)
Quality wins: (1) Patriots Quality losses: (3) Patriots, Colts, Bears
Signature game: A muddy 17-14 win at New England on Nov. 12 in what's become the top rivalry in the AFC East.
Why they can win it all: The Jets do nothing well statistically except win football games, and that's all that matters: If the Jets were in the NFC, for example, their 10-6 record might have been good enough to earn a first-round bye. First-year coach Eric Mangini has built a team in the mold of under-talented, overachieving clubs led in past years by the likes of Parcells and Belichick. Chad Pennington never looks good throwing the ball, but he always seems to reach his targets: He's completed 65.1 percent of his passes in his career, and his 89.3 career passer rating is seventh-best in NFL history, just ahead of Tom Brady (88.4) on the all-time list.
Why they can't win it all: The Jets have had a promising season and will be a team to fear in a year or two. This season, they're in over their heads in a top-heavy AFC. It's hard to find a scenario supported by any reasonable Cold, Hard Football Facts that has New York winning three straight games at New England, then San Diego or Baltimore or Indy.
Randomly determined likelihood they will win it all: 3 percent
KANSAS CITY (9-7, No. 6 seed)
Quality wins: (3) San Diego, Seattle, Denver Quality losses: (3) Denver, Baltimore, San Diego
Signature game: 35-30 victory over the Jaguars in the season finale. The Chiefs needed a win and then a miracle, and they took care of their end of the bargain.
Why they can win it all: They can't. The Chiefs are the most inconsistent team in football – a club that shows flashes of brilliance one week and flashes of disaster the next. The Chiefs do boast a galaxy of big-name offensive stars in Larry Johnson, Tony Gonzalez and Trent Green, one of the most productive but underappreciated quarterbacks in modern NFL history. But it's meant little on the scoreboard: The Chiefs scored 20.7 PPG this season. Among playoff contenders, only the star-less Jets were worse – and just barely (19.75 PPG).
Why they can't win it all: The Chiefs would have a fighting chance with a couple of games at Arrowhead, where they're 6-2 this year and beat teams like Denver, Seattle and AFC No. 1 seed San Diego. But they're borderline dreadful on the road and would have to win three straight on the road just to make the Super Bowl. Kansas City hasn't won three straight road games since early in its 13-3 campaign of 2003.
