Pity the poor "pundits."

 

There they are, climbing up the ladder of gridiron analysis, grunting and huffing and spitting all over themselves, burdened by the weight of overinflated hype, in the race to rescue you, the average, red-blooded American football fan, from the fiery clutches of ignorance. 

 

Even worse is the view: Every time they look up, the only thing they see is the rotund, meaty ass of the Cold, Hard Football Facts once again leaving the "pundits" in their dust.

 

As always, we're the first ones to the rescue, dousing the hype-fanned flames of stupidity with a fire hose of icy Cold, Hard Football Facts. The "pundits" can only watch in awe as we heroically carry America's football fans to safety.

 

It's long been our contention that, if you read only the Cold, Hard Football Facts all year, you'd know more than any other football fans about what's truly taking place on the fields of Pigskin America. No opinions. No hype. Just a true look at what's really happening in the NFL and beyond.

 

For proof, we use our Monday Morning Hangover today to take a look at things you knew about the 2006 season long before anybody else, merely by leaping out the window and into the arms of the Cold, Hard Football Facts.

 

We were better than every major "pundit" in America at predicting division winners and wild-card teams last season. As we noted at the start of the 2006 campaign when our "lesson in humility" suffered a setback, we accurately picked half of all playoff teams last year. Turns out that's pretty tough to do.

 

Don't just take our word for it: King Kaufman of Salon.com wrote to us after seeing the story to tell us that we would have topped his list, too. And he compared our picks to a long, long list of "pundits." As usual, we were ahead of the so-called experts when it came time to analyze the NFL. See Kaufman's list here.

 

And it turns out we might be even better this year.

 

Things can change, but after Week 14, seven of eight division leaders (all but Dallas in the NFC East) are two or more games up on the second-place team. It looks, in other words, like there's little drama left in the divisional battles. If all win out, we'll have accurately picked five of eight division winners with our preseason consensus picks: New England, Indy, Dallas, Chicago and Seattle. In fact, win or lose tonight, Chicago's already a done deal.

 

Our wild-card picks are not looking so hot. The Giants may earn an NFC spot. But Tampa Bay is proving to be a wildly inaccurate pick: The Bucs are one of the worst teams in football. In the AFC, one of our picks, Cincinnati, is still in the mix. Miami has a way-outside shot, but is looking like it will be a failed pick. Sure, the Dolphins smoked New England 21-0 Sunday, but they need to win out and get a miracle to earn a playoff spot.

 

In our individual picks, it could turn out to be a banner season for Cold, Hard Football Facts senior writer John Dudley. He's on pace to nail six of eight division winners. All four of his wildcard teams are still alive, and three of the four have a legitimate shot at earning those spots.

 

Week after week, we see players put up dizzying passing yards – and lose. It proves a long-touted Cold, Hard Football Facts maxim that passing yards are among the most overrated statistics in football.

 

Cincinnati's Carson Palmer put up 440 yards against San Diego on Nov. 12. No AFC quarterback has passed for more yards this season. The Bengals lost, 49-41.

 

A week later, New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees ripped the Cincy defense for 510 yards – tops among all QBs this year and sixth-most in NFL history. The Saints lost, 31-16.

 

Arizona rookie Matt Leinart two weeks ago shredded the Minnesota defense for 405 yards. The Cardinals lost, 31-26.

 

Peyton Manning last week had his second-best passing total of the season (351 yards). The Colts lost to Tennessee, 20-17. He topped the 300-yard mark again yesterday (313 yards). The Colts lost again, 44-17 to Jacksonville.

 

Carolina's Chris Weinke led all passers yesterday with 423 yards. But the Panthers got in the end zone just once and were smoked by the Giants, 27-13.

 

Brees leads the NFL with an impressive 4,033 passing yards – a full 405 yards more than Manning, the No. 2 man on the list. It probably won't matter at the end of the season. As we noted back in August, the last guy to lead the NFL in passing yards and win a championship was Johnny Unitas back in 1959.

 

That's a long time ago, folks, nearly a half-century. That should tell you something.

 

Remember the big story in college football a year ago at this time? It wasn't Vince Young. It was a month-long parade of hype about the unbeatable juggernaut that was the USC Trojans.

 

ESPN, which has never let a Cold, Hard Football Fact get in the way of good, overhyped story, went so far as to produce a feature in which their college football "pundits" declared the 2005 Trojans the greatest football team of all time.

 

The Cold, Hard Football Facts laughed at the stupidity.

 

The truth is that USC wasn't even the best team in football last year, let alone of all time. Texas was a better team, and we declared that the Longhorns would beat USC in the Rose Bowl.

 

They did.

 

It stands as one of the classic examples of Cold, Hard Football Facts trumping hype and the "pundits."

 

The main reason Texas was better than USC was because of its quarterback, Vince Young. He – and not USC's Matt Leinart – was the top-rated passer in the nation last year. He – and not USC's LenDale White – was the biggest threat to score every time he ran with the ball. And he – not USC's Reggie Bush – should have won the Heisman Trophy as the nation's best football player.

 

But somehow, some way, one of the most amazing athletes of our lifetime was lost in the rush to crown USC the G-O-A-T.

 

Young, of course, stole the show in the Rose Bowl, much like he had done for Texas for two straight seasons. He passed for 267 yards and rushed for 200. And, with the game on the line, he was literally unstoppable, rushing for two TDs to help Texas overcome a 12-point deficit late in the fourth quarter.

 

The Vince Young phenomenon is already emerging at the professional level. Young has gone 6-4 as an NFL starter, for a Tennessee team that was 0-3 when he took over. As the Cold, Hard Football Facts noted last week, the Titans overcame double-digit deficits in three of those victories.

 

Young again saved his best for last yesterday. In overtime of a 26-20 victory against Houston, he sprinted 39 yards for a game-winning score right up the gut of the Texans defense, and made the entire team look as if it were standing still.

 

Young is a gifted athlete as fast as any big man ever to play the sport. He has a flair for the dramatic, a charisma that wins over his teammates and an ability to win games even when he doesn't shred a defense with his arm.

 

The news out of Philly was that the Eagles' season ended when Donovan McNabb went down with an injury last month. The news from the Cold, Hard Football Facts was that Garcia is a talented and underappreciated quarterback.

 

It didn't take long for Garcia to prove the Cold, Hard Football Facts correct. He's been brilliant in his three starts, completing 55 of 85 passes (64.7 percent) for 616 yards, 7 TDs, 0 INTs and a 113.7 passer rating. No quarterback has been more effective over that period.

 

More importantly, Philly is 2-1 in his three starts, losing only to AFC power Indy, and has just won a pair of much-needed back-to-back games over conference rivals Carolina and Washington. The Eagles are now firmly in the middle of the NFC playoff hunt. They're a game out of first place in the NFC East and, if the season ended today, they'd own a wildcard playoff spot.

 

Remember, this is a team that had lost four of its last five games in which McNabb started.

 

As we discussed at the start of the year, the NFL's senior circuit is in the middle of a historic inability to compete against the AFC.

 

The NFC has not posted a winning record against AFC opponents since 1995, the longest period of dominance by one conference over the other since the AFL-NFL merger of 1970.

 

Even when the NFC was dominating the Super Bowl – remember, the conference won 13 straight championships from 1984 to 1996 – the regular-season play was far more competitive than it is today. Each conference won the regular-season battle five times, with three ties, over that 13-year period.

 

The AFC this season owns a 35-21 record (.625) against NFC opponents, and every single AFC division is winning its head-to-head battle.

Only three times since the merger has one conference been so dominant over the other. The NFC cruised in that debut 1970 season with a 27-12-1 mark (.687). The AFC went 36-16 (.692) in 1979, and just two years, posted a 44-20 (.687) mark against the NFC.

 

Whenever we think of Colts fans and their obvious hatred of the Cold, Hard Football Facts, we think of our favorite philosopher, Col. Jessep from A Few Good Men:

 

Most Colts fans despise this site. They mock its analysis. They declare it "baised." No matter how flawed their team may be, they simply don't want to hear it. They'd rather go through life happy and ignorant, clinging to the belief that the flaws on their team simply do not exist. They'd rather shoot the messenger, even if we're only here to help them see the light.

 

Instead of sending angry e-mails to the Cold, Hard Football Facts, Colts fans should be printing our stories and mailing them to Bill Polian, demanding that he make an effort to build a real team. They should demand changes from their organization. They should not demand blind Colts worship from the Cold, Hard Football Facts. They should be celebrating the Cold, Hard Football Facts as the secret key that could unlock their hopes and dreams of a Super Bowl championship.

 

Instead, they prefer the stupidity of ignoring us.

 

The truth is that the Colts are an incomplete team. They're a fair-weather team. They're a team that beats up weak teams at home or early in the season. They're a team that wilts late in the season – especially on the road.

 

We saw it again yesterday in an embarrassing 44-17 loss to Jacksonville. It's like gridiron Groundhog Day: It's the same story year after year. Nothing ever changes. Colts management sees no reason to change. Colts fans seem content with the status quo.

 

It's obvious to everyone else that the Indy organizatioon needs a physical and philisophical makeover. The proof is in the late-season holiday pudding: Over the last two seasons, the Colts are 21-1 from September to November. They're 3-5 in December and January. What more do you need to know?

 

Oh, here's something ...

 

Dwight Freeney, the bloodied and black-eyed face of the humiliated Indy defense, has been a no-show this season – just like he was last year when he miraculously earned a spot in the Pro Bowl. 

 

We first discussed the magic missing Freeney last season – and we're waiting for the "pundits" to finally get on board.

 

His inability to produce is obvious to anyone who watches Indy play. He's supposed to be a pass-rushing specialist. But he has just 2.5 sacks this year and has failed to get to the quarterback in 10 of 13 games. His patented upfield pass rush has become a huge liability against the run, as opponents routinely run off-tackle, right at the spot he vacated. He takes himself out of the play, often with little effort from the offense to move him by force.

 

As a result, he has registered just 55 total tackles – solos and assists – over the last two seasons. That's it, folks: 29 games, 55 tackles. We had high school girlfriends who played tougher defense.

 

Indy supporters have it stuck in their head that Freeney's some sort of dominant, game-changing defensive lineman. These people are blinded by our mortal enemy, hype. These people read stories in which people tell them that Freeney is a great player and they believe it, despite all the evidence and all the Cold, Hard Football Facts to the contrary. These people are idiots.

 

If he were a game-changer, the Colts wouldn't be mired with the worst run defense in the history of football.

 

The Jaguars yesterday shredded the Indy defense for 375 yards on the ground. It's the second-highest rush total since the AFL-NFL merger (the Bengals rushed for 407 yards on Denver in 2000).

 

Indy is now dead last in every single run-defense category: yards (2,294), yards per game (176.5), average per carry (5.45), rush attempts against (421) and touchdowns allowed (17).

 

Teams with dominant defensive ends don't have arguably the worst rush defense in NFL history. As we reported earlier this season, you have to look long and hard through the dusty pages of NFL history to find a team that's been more inept against the run.

 

Sure, there have been some heroic offensive performances this year, led by LaDainian Tomlinson, who set an NFL record yesterday with his 29th touchdown of the season. He's also poised to set the single-season scoring record, which we reported on last week.

 

But NFL defenses, typically ignored by the "pundits," may set their own record this year. There have already been 13 shutouts in the NFL this season. The most recent was posted by Miami yesterday, with its 21-0 whitewashing of the Patriots. With three more shutouts over the final three weeks of the season – basically the average so far this year – it will be a new record for the most shutouts in a single season in the Live Ball Era, something we indicated was a possibility after Week 5.

 

In fact, you have to go back to 1977, the very bottom of the Dead Ball Era, to find a season that's seen more than 15 shutouts.

Bledsoe is all done

We declared it all over for Drew back in 2004. But, as you now realize, it often takes "pundits" and coaches a little longer to catch on to things that were obvious to Cold, Hard Football Facts readers. Bill Parcells finally got up the gumption earlier this season to do the right thing and dump the aging old warhorse who's been a mediocre-to-ineffective quarterback almost every single year of his career.

 

Bledsoe had a 69.2 passer rating as the Cowboys struggled to a 3-3 record before it finally ended. Tony Romo has come in and, with the very same cast of characters around him, has put up a 96.6 passer rating and led the Cowboys to a 5-2 mark.

 

The Cowboys will, in all likelihood, become the second team in the last six seasons to make the playoffs after benching Bledsoe for an untested backup quarterback. It's amazing, really, when you think about it.

 

NFL Films is the greatest thing to happen to football since man first bravely doused a chicken wing in hot sauce.

 

We've never hidden our love for their work, but NFL Films has really outdone itself with its latest series, "America's Game," which profiles all 40 Super Bowl champions through the eyes of some of the key players on each team.

 

The result is a series more dramatic, more personal, more beautifully produced and more emotionally captivating than anything the company has done in its 40-plus-year history of chronicling the great American sport.

 

Remember all the hype about the Cardinals back in the summer?

 

In fact, the arrival of big names like Matt Leinart and Edgerrin James made the Cardinals one of the hottest stories of the offseason. Some people actually believed the Cardinals were a playoff contender. Apparently, the "pundits" believe that it takes just two players and a new stadium to cure the deep institutional flaws that have plagued the worst franchise in North American sports for all 86 years of its existence.

 

The Cardinals pulled off a surprising 27-21 win over Seattle Sunday. But, at 4-9, they've shown no signs of being any better than the 5-11 team they were in 2005, and only three teams have a worse record.

 

Believe you us, if the Cardinals ever turn around their organization, you'll read about it here long before anybody else catches on.

 

The Kansas City coach runs a great, entertaining and quote-filled press conference – which seems to be a prerequisite to earn praise from certain "pundits."

 

The truth, though, is that he's not a particularly good coach.

 

He's mediocre, as his 46-47 record would indicate. If anything, the Chiefs – 7-6 after their loss to Baltimore yesterday – are worse today than they were in 2005, when they went 10-6 and barely missed out on the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Jets are 7-6 under rookie head coach Eric Mangini after a 4-12 campaign last year under Edwards.

 

As we noted as the start of the season, Edwards-coached teams do not move the ball well on offense, and we expected the Chiefs to struggle this year on that side of the ball. They currently average 20.5 PPG, a decline of nearly 19 percent from their 25.2 PPG in 2005.

 

Sure, you can blame the loss of Kansas City quarterback Trent Green to an injury this year for the decline on offense. But that's no excuse: The Chiefs actually scored more points per game (22.9) with backup QB Damon Huard leading the offense.

 

Cutler may go on to have a Hall of Fame career. But we won't see that performer over the next month, as Shanahan and the Broncos warm up for the 2007 season.

 

We told you it was a sign that the season was all over as soon as Shanahan made the decision to go with the rookie. The Broncos are now 0-2 in Cutler's two starts. The quarterback is certainly not to blame for both losses, especially Sunday, when Denver surrendered 48 points to San Diego. But anyone who believed Denver would improve with a rookie leading the offense into the final month of the season was sadly deprived of the Cold, Hard Football Facts.

 

And as we've long shown, if you're deprived of the Cold, Hard Football Facts, you're at the mercy of the "pundits."