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Dominant Dozen: offseason refresher
Cold, Hard Football Facts for June 26, 2006
By Cold, Hard Football Facts contributor Jonathan Comey
NFL coaches aren’t big fans of “last year.”
But, when placing every team into a Cold, Hard Football Facts 32-pack at the start of the summer, last year is about all you can rely on. Sure, these Power Rankings will be jumbled beyond belief by the time the leaves are falling, but you’ve got to start somewhere.
For a team to be ranked significantly higher than where it generally wound up a year ago, one of two criteria must be met: a key injured player is returning (e.g., Donovan McNabb) or an impact player has been added in an area of need (e.g., Daunte Culpepper, Steve McNair, Edgerrin James).
To be significantly lower, a team’s offseason has to be considered a complete disaster (e.g., the Bengals, whose young players are more likely to be found in a police lineup than the starting lineup).
General trends were also considered: Is this team always bad or always good? Did they play better or worse than last year’s record indicates? And, of course, what kind of wood would a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck would chuck wood?
Without further ado, let’s hit the Cold, Hard Football Facts icebox and consume 32 well-organized bottles of gridiron goodness. Ahhh. That hits the spot.
(As always, the Cold, Hard Football Facts place a premium on postseason results and Quality Standings when calculating the Dominant Dozen rankings.)
1. PITTSBURGH
Offseason activity: Jerome Bettis, the greatest big back of all time, waddled off into the sunset, free agency claimed three other 2005 contributors (Antwaan Randle El, Chris Hope and Kimo von Oelhoffen), and Ben Roethlisberger kissed the windshield of a cah registered in New England. On the bright side, Pittsburgh scored high on the Fillability Index … but twice-arrested top pick Santonio Holmes is attempting to sabotage a potentially great draft.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: 16 of 40 Super Bowl winners (40 percent) have won back-to-back championships. But the Steelers could face a title hangover. Of the nine other teams that played four games en route to the Super Bowl, only four reached the playoffs the following season. Just one, the 1998 Broncos, won it all again.
2. SEATTLE
Offseason activity: Seattle lost Pro Bowl G Steve Hutchinson, who helped pave the way for Shaun Alexander's record-setting 28-TD season, but got back at Minnesota by signing away WR Nate Burleson. The Seahawks also welcome Pro Bowl LB Julian Peterson to a unit that ranked 16th in total defense and No. 1 in sacks.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Seattle is the fifth NFC team in six years to lose the Super Bowl (Tampa Bay beat Oakland in SB XXXVII). All six NFC champions, including the Bucs, failed to make the playoffs the next season. In fact, all were under .500.
3. DENVER
Offseason activity: The Broncos ranked No. 29 in pass defense in 2005 and allowed Pittsburgh’s passing attack to torch them for 275 yards, 2 TDs and a 124.9 passer rating in the AFC title game. To address the apparent need for help in the secondary, Denver reacquired first-round bust Willie Middlebrooks, who had just two starts in his four previous years with the team.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Rod Smith’s impressive reign atop the receiver depth chart may be over with the addition of Javon Walker. Smith has led the Broncos in receiving yards for nine straight seasons, tied for the fifth-longest one-team streak in the Super Bowl era, behind Steve Largent (12), Jerry Rice (11) and Jimmy Smith and Henry Ellard (10).
4. INDIANAPOLIS
Offseason activity: First-round pick Joseph Addai will try to fill the big cleats of Edgerrin James, who willingly took his record 125.7 yards from scrimmage per game to the Arizona desert. The Colts also lost two defensive starters (Larry Tripplett and David Thornton) and replaced kicker Mike Vanderjagt with Adam Vinatieri.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: The Colts have had a balanced offense over the last three regular seasons, averaging 33.6 passes and 28 rushes per game. But in their four most recent playoff games, they have averaged 40 passes and 19.5 rushes per game. They lost three of those four contests.
5. CAROLINA
Offseason activity: The Panthers have added nine new veterans, including Keyshawn Johnson, as well as eight draft picks. But they lost three defensive starters: Brandon Short, Will Witherspoon and Marlon McCree.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Steve Smith was a remarkable 1,122 yards ahead of second-place Ricky Proehl on Carolina’s receiving list in 2005. The last time a receiver led a team in receiving yardage by such a wide margin was 1995, when Isaac Bruce (+1,323) and Jerry Rice (+1,186) outpaced teammates Troy Drayton and Derek Loville for the Rams and 49ers, respectively.
6. WASHINGTON
Offseason activity: Offensive coordinator Al Saunders comes over from Kansas City, where his offenses ranked in the top five in each of his five seasons. Washington sacrificed this year’s first-round pick to draft quarterback Jason Campbell out of Auburn in 2005. The passing game should be bolstered by the additions of Brandon Lloyd and Antwaan Randle El.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: If the AFC didn’t exist, the Redskins might have been Super Bowl champs last year. They were 0-4 vs. the AFC West and 11-3 (including playoffs) vs. the NFC.
7. NEW ENGLAND
Offseason activity: Three Super Bowl lynchpins were among those who departed via free agency: David Givens (TDs in six straight playoff games), Willie McGinest (all-time postseason sack leader) and Adam Vinatieri ( football's greatest clutch kicker). The Patriots then uncharacteristically drafted two skill-position players among the top 36 picks, adding RB Laurence Maroney and WR Chad Jackson.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Tom Brady is 68-21 as a starter and has never missed a game since taking over the offense. His postseason record is no longer unblemished (10-1), but he has thrown just five playoff interceptions and his 1.36 postseason INT percentage is an NFL record.
8. KANSAS CITY
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Kansas City went over the 400-point mark for the fourth straight season but failed to make the playoffs for the fourth time in five years under Dick Vermeil. The Chiefs’ lone postseason appearance over that stretch was a 38-31 home loss to Indy in 2003. Their last playoff win came in 1993.
9. JACKSONVILLE
Cold, Hard Football Facts: The Jaguars ranked in the middle of the pack in run defense (14th in yards allowed with 1,709), but led the league by allowing just four rushing touchdowns.
10. TAMPA BAY
Offseason activity: With the exception of adding Dallas tackle Torrin Tucker, the Bucs mostly retained their own players in free agency. Adding beef up front was also a priority in the draft, where the first two of their 10 picks were offensive linemen.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: For the 10th straight time, Tampa Bay’s defense ranked in the Top 10 in points allowed.
11. MIAMI
Offseason activity: The primary addition is QB Daunte Culpepper, who is a season removed from throwing for 4,717 yards, 39 TDs and just 11 INTs. First-round pick Jason Allen may be called upon to replace departed cornerback Sam Madison.
12. N.Y. GIANTS
Offseason activity: The Giants took major steps toward retooling a defense that ranked 24th in yards allowed. Free agency brought LB LaVar Arrington and three new members of the secondary (Sam Madison, R.W. McQuarters and Will Demps), all of whom were starters in 2005. The Giants also went defense with three of their top four draft picks.
Cold, Hard Football Facts: Eli Manning threw 15 interceptions and only 10 touchdowns over the second half of the season and in the 23-0 playoff loss to Carolina. The Manning Boys were on the losing end of the NFL's last two playoff shutouts.
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