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Game Analysis: Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints


Bills
Bills at Saints
Oct 27, 2013 - Week 8
CHFF pick: Saints 27, Bills 17

Saints

Bills Pre-Game Analysis Saints
Value Rank Quality Stat Value Rank
19.00 22

Quality Stats Power Rankings

9.27 7
17% 22

Quality Standings

50% 8
15.96 25

Scoreability

15.44 20
13.75 24

Bendability

16.09 10
5.44 29

Real Passing Yards per Attempt

7.15 4
5.29 3

Defensive Real Passing Yards per Attempt

5.58 7
68.48 25

Real Quarterback Rating

97.39 2
65.53 2

Defensive Real Quarterback Rating

73.81 9
2.95 16

Real Quarterback Rating Differential

23.58 3
74.98 26

Offensive Passer Rating

104.50 3
74.91 3

Defensive Passer Rating

83.62 14
0.07 17

Passer Rating Differential

20.89 3
23.00 26

Offensive Hog Index

11.33 10
12.67 11

Defensive Hog Index

14.00 12
- 3.38 22

The Relativity Index

8.17 5
6499 27

Total Team Yards

7303 14
7261 23

Total Team Yards Allowed

6042 3
-762 29

Total Team Yards Differential

1261 3
89.58 16

Offensive Rusher Rating

88.86 18
88.35 13

Defensive Rusher Rating

95.39 24
1.23 14

Rusher Rating Differential

- 6.52 20
27 19

Total Turnovers

21 9

 

Buffalo at New Orleans (-12)

The Saints have had two weeks to lick their wounds after a last-minute giveaway loss at New England in Week 6, so they should be raring to go at home against a surprisingly resilient Buffalo team this Sunday.

The Saints return to the Superdome for the first time in a month, after two road games anda bye.

The Bills, fresh off a last-minute win at Miami last week, have been quite competitive despite a tsunami of injuries at the QB position that has shelved their top two options and put the unheralded, but effective, Thad Lewis (85.3 passer rating) behind center for the time being.

On the defensive side of the ball, this shapes up as a pretty even matchup. The Bills and Saints rank within just a few spots of one another in the key Defensive Passer Rating, Defensive Real QB Rating, Defensive Real Passing YPA, and Defensive Hog Index categories.

Buffalo has a big advantage in the running game, on both sides of the ball, but that likely will not be a determining factor in the outcome, as NFL games usually come down to which team has the better passing attack.

That team is New Orleans.

Drew Brees (102.6 rating) and the Saints have large edges in all of the major offensive passing categories, which also translates into huge advantages in Passer Rating Differential and Real QB Rating Differential. In addition, New Orleans owns the battle of The Relativity Index by a wide margin (No. 4 versus No. 20 for Buffalo).

This is a lot of points to give, however, against a Buffalo team that has lost by 10 or more points only once this season (at Cleveland, on the night when starting QB EJ Manuel went down mid-game with a knee injury). The Bills have faced three Quality Opponents this year. They are 0-3 in those games, but have lost by an average of only 4.0 PPG. The Bills defense should keep things within the margin of error.

Pick: New Orleans 27, Buffalo 17

Bills Pre-Game Analysis Saints
Value Rank Quality Stat Value Rank
19.00 22

Quality Stats Power Rankings

9.27 7
17% 22

Quality Standings

50% 8
15.96 25

Scoreability

15.44 20
13.75 24

Bendability

16.09 10
5.44 29

Real Passing Yards per Attempt

7.15 4
5.29 3

Defensive Real Passing Yards per Attempt

5.58 7
68.48 25

Real Quarterback Rating

97.39 2
65.53 2

Defensive Real Quarterback Rating

73.81 9
2.95 16

Real Quarterback Rating Differential

23.58 3
74.98 26

Offensive Passer Rating

104.50 3
74.91 3

Defensive Passer Rating

83.62 14
0.07 17

Passer Rating Differential

20.89 3
23.00 26

Offensive Hog Index

11.33 10
12.67 11

Defensive Hog Index

14.00 12
- 3.38 22

The Relativity Index

8.17 5
6499 27

Total Team Yards

7303 14
7261 23

Total Team Yards Allowed

6042 3
-762 29

Total Team Yards Differential

1261 3
89.58 16

Offensive Rusher Rating

88.86 18
88.35 13

Defensive Rusher Rating

95.39 24
1.23 14

Rusher Rating Differential

- 6.52 20
27 19

Total Turnovers

21 9





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