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Game Analysis: Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts


Raiders
Raiders at Colts
Sep 08, 2013 - Week 1
CHFF pick: Colts 24, Raiders 17

Colts

Raiders Pre-Game Analysis Colts
Value Rank Quality Stat Value Rank
24.18 31

Quality Stats Power Rankings

13.05 10
12% 27

Quality Standings

57% 5
16.58 26

Scoreability

13.98 10
12.85 30

Bendability

17.00 7
5.91 18

Real Passing Yards per Attempt

6.07 16
6.95 28

Defensive Real Passing Yards per Attempt

6.42 19
69.77 24

Real Quarterback Rating

84.07 10
95.83 32

Defensive Real Quarterback Rating

77.08 14
- 26.06 32

Real Quarterback Rating Differential

6.98 10
73.93 28

Offensive Passer Rating

86.50 16
105.09 32

Defensive Passer Rating

84.63 18
- 31.16 32

Passer Rating Differential

1.87 15
20.33 24

Offensive Hog Index

10.33 6
20.33 24

Defensive Hog Index

16.33 18
- 8.29 29

The Relativity Index

3.92 10
6966 19

Total Team Yards

7032 18
7243 21

Total Team Yards Allowed

7330 24
-277 19

Total Team Yards Differential

-298 20
98.16 8

Offensive Rusher Rating

103.64 3
90.09 14

Defensive Rusher Rating

92.86 17
8.07 10

Rusher Rating Differential

10.77 9
31 25

Total Turnovers

18 1

 

Oakland at Indianapolis (-9.5)

The 2012 Colts led an extremely charmed life in 2012 en route to an 11-5 playoff season, as a look at the Quality Stats comparison below reveals beyond the shadow of doubt.

No team punched above its statistical weight in 2012 more than Indianapolis, which ranked no better than 18th in any of our key Quality Stats and finished No. 27 in our overall Power Rankings.

Hell, even the pathetic Raiders, who finished 4-12 and extended their seemingly endless stay in NFL purgatory for a 10th consecutive season, ranked higher than 18th in one category last year—Real Passing YPA (No. 16).

Of course, the QB in Oakland last season was strong-armed veteran Carson Palmer, which helps to explain that solid ranking.

Palmer, however, was shipped off to Arizona, just two years after the Raiders gave Cincinnati a ton of high draft picks to acquire him.

The QB position in Oakland for this season, or at least here in Week 1, will be placed in the hands of Terrelle Pryor (70.8 passer rating in 2012).

Veteran Matt Flynn got a very nice contract from Seattle last offseason based on one great game subbing for Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay at the end of the 2011 season, only to lose out on the Seahawks’ starting job in 2012 to Russell Wilson. He plays second fiddle again in Oakland, at least to start the season.

The Colts, of course, do not have a QB controversy. Andrew Luck is the man in Indy, though statistically, his rookie season was not all it was cracked up to be in the media, despite the team’s terrific won-lost record.

Luck and the Colts pulled off plenty of late-game heroics to win 11 games – which is all that matters at the end of the day.

But he produced a sub-par 76.5 passer rating and completed only 54.1 percent of his passes in 2012. In fact, Luck and the Colts were the most inaccurate team in football last year – a dishonor held by Tim Tebow’s Broncos in 2011.

The Colts’ ranked just 27th Offensive Passer Rating and 23rd in Real QB Rating. Those numbers need to improve in 2013, because Indy’s defense also scraped near the bottom of the barrel in most of our key Quality Stats last season, with Bendability (No. 18) the only defensive indicator in which Indy ranked inside the Top 20.

Still, this game matches a playoff team at home, with a promising young QB, facing a bad team with a QB situation in flux (and seemingly without a real long-term solution at the position on the current roster).

The large number gives us pause, as it always should. Indy won only two games by more than 10 points last year—against the utterly punchless Jaguars and against a playoff-bound Houston team that was resting most of its starters in Week 17.

Pick: Indianapolis 24, Oakland 17

Note: stats below are year-end 2012

Raiders Pre-Game Analysis Colts
Value Rank Quality Stat Value Rank
24.18 31

Quality Stats Power Rankings

13.05 10
12% 27

Quality Standings

57% 5
16.58 26

Scoreability

13.98 10
12.85 30

Bendability

17.00 7
5.91 18

Real Passing Yards per Attempt

6.07 16
6.95 28

Defensive Real Passing Yards per Attempt

6.42 19
69.77 24

Real Quarterback Rating

84.07 10
95.83 32

Defensive Real Quarterback Rating

77.08 14
- 26.06 32

Real Quarterback Rating Differential

6.98 10
73.93 28

Offensive Passer Rating

86.50 16
105.09 32

Defensive Passer Rating

84.63 18
- 31.16 32

Passer Rating Differential

1.87 15
20.33 24

Offensive Hog Index

10.33 6
20.33 24

Defensive Hog Index

16.33 18
- 8.29 29

The Relativity Index

3.92 10
6966 19

Total Team Yards

7032 18
7243 21

Total Team Yards Allowed

7330 24
-277 19

Total Team Yards Differential

-298 20
98.16 8

Offensive Rusher Rating

103.64 3
90.09 14

Defensive Rusher Rating

92.86 17
8.07 10

Rusher Rating Differential

10.77 9
31 25

Total Turnovers

18 1





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