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Game Analysis: Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns


Dolphins
Dolphins at Browns
Sep 08, 2013 - Week 1
CHFF pick: Dolphins 20, Browns 17

Browns

Dolphins Pre-Game Analysis Browns
Value Rank Quality Stat Value Rank
18.91 21

Quality Stats Power Rankings

21.32 23
57% 6

Quality Standings

20% 19
15.80 22

Scoreability

17.61 29
17.16 6

Bendability

13.10 29
5.47 28

Real Passing Yards per Attempt

5.53 27
6.03 13

Defensive Real Passing Yards per Attempt

5.49 4
70.39 23

Real Quarterback Rating

67.65 27
71.86 7

Defensive Real Quarterback Rating

78.85 18
- 1.47 18

Real Quarterback Rating Differential

- 11.20 23
80.13 21

Offensive Passer Rating

75.70 25
77.26 5

Defensive Passer Rating

84.06 16
2.87 14

Passer Rating Differential

- 8.36 21
23.67 28

Offensive Hog Index

21.33 25
15.00 15

Defensive Hog Index

20.00 23
- 0.98 17

The Relativity Index

- 6.91 28
6377 29

Total Team Yards

7104 16
7193 19

Total Team Yards Allowed

6579 5
-816 31

Total Team Yards Differential

525 8
85.96 23

Offensive Rusher Rating

72.37 32
94.90 22

Defensive Rusher Rating

91.39 16
- 8.94 25

Rusher Rating Differential

- 19.02 28
26 17

Total Turnovers

29 22

 

Miami at Cleveland (pick’em)

The Dolphins had a very active off season and generated a lot of much-desired “media buzz” with their high-profile free agent signings of WR Mike Wallace and ex-Ravens LB Dannell Ellerbe.

Those signings, plus an aggressive trade-up in the first round of last April’s draft to select DE Dion Jordan, have made Miami the latest flavor-of-the-month pick to finally unseat the Patriots at the top of the AFC East. Jordan has struggled to recover from shoulder surgery, but looks to be ready to go Sunday.

Of course, only one AFC East team has unseated the Patriots over the past decade: 11-5 Miami edge out the Patriots on tiebreakers to capture the division crown in 2008. But that’s ancient history by NFL standards.

Miami’s defense already was pretty good before the acquisitions of Ellerbe and Jordan: the 2012 Dolphins finished No. 4 in Bendability and in the top-half of the league in Defensive Passer Rating, Defensive Rusher Rating and Defensive Real QB Rating. They also had our No. 9-ranked Defensive Hogs.

So, the high expectations on the defensive side of the ball seem warranted.

Offensively, however, despite the signing of Wallace, whom Miami overpaid, the Dolphins are still led by second-year QB Ryan Tannehill. He struggled in his rookie season (76.1 passer rating) and remains unproven.

In addition, Reggie Bush, the team’s top RB, is now in Detroit, and All-Pro tackle Jake Long, Tannehill’s blindside protector, is now in St. Louis. Those losses could outweigh any benefits that adding Wallace will have on an offense that ranked No. 21 in Real QB Rating, No. 23 in Scoreability, No. 19 on the Offensive Hog Index (with Long on the roster) and No. 25 in Offensive Passer Rating.

Cleveland, which finished 5-11 last year, is also is led by a second-year QB, Brandon Weeden (72.6 passer rating), who struggled even more than Tannehill during his rookie season. He was also cursed with a bad offensive line (No. 27 Offensive Hogs).

The Browns under Weeden finished 2012 28th in Real QB Rating and 29th in Offensive Passer Rating. It’s the same problem that has plagued the organization since it returned to the shores of Lake Erie: you can’t win in the NFL without a decent quarterbacks.

Cleveland’s defense wasn’t bad last year, either. The 2012 Browns finished No. 11 in Bendability, No. 15 in Defensive Real QB Rating and No. 15 in Defensive Passer Rating.

But with an offense that couldn’t get out of its own way last year facing a Miami defense could be even better in 2013, we don’t see the Browns getting much done in this game.

One caveat: the Dolphins were 2-6 on the road last year, with mid-season wins over the playoff-bound Bengals (17-13) and AFC East rival Jets (30-9), their most impressive performance all year long. The Browns, meanwhile, were competitive at home (4-4), with wins over the Bengals, Chargers, Steelers and Chiefs.

But every game is a unique statistical event, in in this case the Dolphins appear the slightly stronger fish.

Pick: Miami 20, Cleveland 17

Dolphins Pre-Game Analysis Browns
Value Rank Quality Stat Value Rank
18.91 21

Quality Stats Power Rankings

21.32 23
57% 6

Quality Standings

20% 19
15.80 22

Scoreability

17.61 29
17.16 6

Bendability

13.10 29
5.47 28

Real Passing Yards per Attempt

5.53 27
6.03 13

Defensive Real Passing Yards per Attempt

5.49 4
70.39 23

Real Quarterback Rating

67.65 27
71.86 7

Defensive Real Quarterback Rating

78.85 18
- 1.47 18

Real Quarterback Rating Differential

- 11.20 23
80.13 21

Offensive Passer Rating

75.70 25
77.26 5

Defensive Passer Rating

84.06 16
2.87 14

Passer Rating Differential

- 8.36 21
23.67 28

Offensive Hog Index

21.33 25
15.00 15

Defensive Hog Index

20.00 23
- 0.98 17

The Relativity Index

- 6.91 28
6377 29

Total Team Yards

7104 16
7193 19

Total Team Yards Allowed

6579 5
-816 31

Total Team Yards Differential

525 8
85.96 23

Offensive Rusher Rating

72.37 32
94.90 22

Defensive Rusher Rating

91.39 16
- 8.94 25

Rusher Rating Differential

- 19.02 28
26 17

Total Turnovers

29 22





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