We've got our COCK-UP

 

At ColdHardFootballFacts.com, the trolls think a mission statement is what they must say at the soup kitchen before getting their bowls. But since our mission is to separate the facts from mere opinions, we have devised a system for establishing exactly who is the league's top kicker.

 

We call it Carlson's Original Calibration for Kickers-Unscientific Program, but you can call it COCK-UP for short. Other online "pundits" have complex formulas for rating kickers. We've got our COCK-UP.

There are a few caveats. Who was it who said, after the fourth gallon of PBR, "there are lies, damned lies and statistics"? While we hesitate to add to the morass of confusion, we are aware that even if this new stat were perfect, it still can't determine the "best." 

What doesn't it measure? First, our COCK-UP doesn't measure what baseballers would call "park factors": the thin air in Denver, which seems to add 5 to 10 percent to a kicker's range; the swirling winds and snow of places like Buffalo, Foxboro or Green Bay; the relative calm of domed stadia; or the heavy air of Oakland or Miami at night. Sadly, we have to leave such barometric calculations to the more computer-literate. (Nebraska professor Timothy Gay, in the book "The Physics of Football," reports that sea-level kickers booted the ball 11.6 percent further on kickoffs in Denver than they did at home.)

Second, when it comes to field goals, all kicks are created equal, but some are more equal than others. Any fan worth his six-pack knows Mike Vanderjagt, who calls himself "the best kicker in the history of the game," has the career accuracy stats to back up his claim. But if your season came down to one kick to keep your team alive in the playoffs, wouldn't you look down the bench to see if maybe one of your tackles was channeling the spirit of Lou Groza (right) rather than let Vandershank take it?

The question of clutch kicking is hard to measure. Baseball analysts have argued for decades about whether or not "clutch" hitters actually exist. They've compiled stats for clutch and pressure situations, late innings of close games, game-winning or -tying RBIs ... and have yet to make a definitive determination about "clutch" hitters. Try as we might to quantify it, "clutch" remains one of those "I know it when I see it" phenomenons.

You might, using the same approach for football kicking analysis, try two categories. First would be pressure situations – any field goal attempted with the score tied or your team down by three. Second would be "clutch" – the same definition, but taking place in the last two minutes of a game or in OT, essentially a game-tying or -winning kick.

But there are problems with this. In baseball there are differing degrees of difficulty: You may be down by two runs with two on and facing Mariano Rivera, or you could be hitting with the score tied, none out, bases loaded and Heathcliff Slocumb on the mound. Pressure has all sorts of variables.

 

But at least in baseball, the mound, the plate and the bases are always in the same place. And no one is catching the ball from the pitcher and putting it on a hitting tee for the batter while the fielders charge the plate trying to get in the way of the batted ball. The kicker is, by definition, expected to beat the rush, but the snap and hold are never reflected in his totals; football has no stats for passed balls or wild snaps.

There are many other variables in football. A game-winning kick might be a 50-yarder or a 21-yarder – a longshot or a virtual extra point. Gary Anderson wasn't going to attempt any 55-yard game-winners when his maximum range was 45, even if he was almost automatic inside that range. His percentages will reflect that, but they won't reflect the times his team had to go for it on 4th-and-4 at the 38.

And then again, all kicks are, to some extent, equal. Kickers suffer from what is known as the Elway Conundrum. Look at it this way: A kicker misses two field goals, from 31 and 36 yards out, during the game. With the game tied late, his team engineers a drive, and he hits a 41-yarder in the final seconds to win it. He's a hero. Just ask Adam Vinatieri, who missed his first two field goals in Super Bowl XXXVIII before trotting on to nail the game-winner with four seconds to play.

 

Had he made either of those earlier kicks, one could argue, his team would have been killing the clock to win the game. Is he a great clutch kicker or a mediocre kicker in general? Which would you prefer: two kicks made and the lead to protect, or two missed but icy execution of the winner?

John Elway was known for the number of fourth-quarter comebacks he engineered. Few quarterbacks are known for the number of fourth quarters they enter with their team in the lead. Elway might have been known with just as much validity for the number of games he couldn't put his team into the lead before that quarter. We know, you can argue he was hamstrung by the system, which he was freer to ignore as the loss approached, much like Joe Montana at Notre Dame. Montana was essentially a hand-off machine for the Irish, who never attempted more than 30 passes in his games – until the final two of his career, when he tossed the ball a total of 75 times in a dramatic loss to USC and a legendary win over Houston in the Cotton Bowl.

 

But basically, shouldn't most field goals (apart from some in garbage time) be considered clutch? In the end, it boils down to one point: Isn't distance a fairer yardstick than situation?

Keeping all this in mind, we had a another round of Ringwood and put Carlson's Original Calibration for Kickers-Unscientific Program into action. It has the beauty of being easy to use, requiring barely more than three fingers to perform any of the calculations. Simplicity is, in itself, aesthetically pleasing, or so LeRoy Neiman insists.

We all think field goals of less than 40 yards should be automatic. This isn't quite fair to kickers, but that's the way it is. So for each kick made from inside that distace, award 1 point. For every kick missed, deduct three. For kicks from 40 to 49 yards, give two for a make, take off two for a miss. And for kicks that in NFL Europe would be worth four points, give three for a hit and subtract only one for a miss. (We mention NFL Europe because Carlson has used this system there for years to reinforce his own instinctive picks for all-league kicker when he chooses Pro Football Weekly's all-Europe team. And don't forget, NFLEL has given us Vinatieri, David Akers, Lawrence Tynes and Matt Bryant, as well as the immortal Jose "The Roofer" Cortez.)

 

In any case, here's the three-finger formula used to measure each kicker with our COCK-UP:

 

Kick Distance	Make	Miss
Inside 40	+1 point	-3 points
40 to 49	+2 points	-2 points
50-plus	+3 points	-1 point

Let's take a look at each conference and see how we rate all kickers with our COCK-UP. The final figure, COCK-UPPA, is simply COCK-UP Per Attempt. It rewards kickers for attempting, and making, long field goals :

Kicker ('05 Team)	Inside 40	40-49	50+	Total	COCK-UPPA
Neil Rackers (Cardinals)	21 (21-21)	24 (13-14)	17 (6-7)	62	1.48
Joe Nedney (49ers)	11 (14-15)	20 (10-10)	5 (2-3)	36	1.29
Jeff Wilkins (Rams)	11 (14-15)	14 (9-11)	11 (4-5)	36	1.16
Matt Bryant (Buccaneers)	4 (10-12)	18 (10-11)	2 (1-2)	24	0.96
Todd Peterson (Falcons)	17 (20-21)	4 (3-4)	0 (0-0)	21	0.84
Jay Feely (Giants)	15 (24-27)	12 (8-10)	7 (3-5)	34	0.81
Josh Brown (Seahawks)	6 (9-10)	2 (4-7)	12 (5-8)	20	0.80
John Kasay (Panthers)	17 (17-17)	6 (6-9)	4 (3-8)	27	0.79
Jason Hanson (Lions)	13 (13-13)	2 (4-7)	4 (2-4)	19	0.79
Paul Edinger (Vikings)	-1 (14-19)	12 (8-10)	7 (3-5)	18	0.53
Ryan Longwell (Packers)	1 (13-17)	2 (3-5)	11 (4-5)	14	0.52
John Carney (Saints)	8 (17-20)	8 (8-12)	0 (0-0)	16	0.50
David Akers (Eagles)	7 (10-11)	2 (5-9)	2 (1-2)	11	0.50
Robbie Gould (Bears)	15 (18-19)	-4 (3-8)	0 (0-0)	11	0.41

 

Kicker ('05 Team)	Inside 40	40-49	50+	Total	COCK-UPPA
Mike Vanderjagt (Colts)	13 (16-17)	12 (7-8)	0 (0-0)	25	1.00
Nate Kaeding (Chargers)	13 (13-13)	10 (8-11)	0 (0-0)	23	0.96
Matt Stover (Ravens)	16 (19-20)	16 (11-14)	0 (0-0)	32	0.94
Phil Dawson (Browns)	16 (22-24)	10 (5-5)	0 (0-0)	26	0.90
Shayne Graham (Bengals)	18 (21-22)	10 (7-9)	-1 (0-1)	27	0.84
Rob Bironas (Titans)	13 (16-17)	6 (5-7)	3 (2-5)	22	0.76
Jeff Reed (Steelers)	18 (18-18)	6 (6-9)	-2 (0-2)	22	0.76
Rian Lindell (Bills)	10 (19-22)	8 (7-10)	8 (3-3)	26	0.74
Lawrence Tynes (Chiefs)	19 (22-23)	0 (4-8)	5 (2-3)	24	0.73
Olindo Mare (Dolphins)	6 (18-22)	12 (6-6)	2 (1-2)	20	0.67
Jason Elam (Broncos)	11 (14-15)	10 (9-13)	0 (1-4)	21	0.66
Mike Nugent (Jets)	12 (15-16)	8 (7-10)	-2 (0-2)	18	0.64
Josh Scobee (Jaguars)	13 (16-17)	0 (5-10)	5 (2-3)	18	0.60
Adam Vinatieri (Patriots)	13 (16-17)	4 (4-6)	-2 (0-2)	15	0.60
Kris Brown (Texans)	6 (21-26)	4 (4-6)	2 (1-2)	12	0.35
S. Janikowski (Raiders)	7 (13-15)	4 (7-12)	-3 (0-3)	8	0.27

 

With our system, Neil Rackers emerges as the NFL's best kicker by a wide margin. He has the biggest COCK-UP total, with 62 points. You could argue that this system is biased toward kickers who attempt a lot of kicks, but Rackers likewise won convincingly when measured per attempt, or with our COCK-UPPA. He tried 42 field goals, which gives him 1.48 points per kick.

 

The next highest totals belong to Joe Nedney and Jeff Wilkins, who had 36 points each. They also were the only other kickers in the league averaging over one point per attempt. In the AFC, Matt Stover had the biggest COCK-UP (32) and Vanderjagt averaged exactly one point per attempt.

 

The most obvious flaw is that a kicker who cannot kick from more than 50 doesn't suffer a percentage drop. Many attempts from outside 50 are speculative or desperation, and perhaps this system penalizes some guys unfairly for simply having the leg to try one from 55. It's also interesting that none of the four highest-ranked kickers in the AFC even attempted a field goal over 50 yards.

The system isn't perfect. It doesn't account for weather, snaps, blocks or missed extra points. We might have to add a domed and undomed breakdown. And people forget that kickoffs are part of the job. It is incredible that some teams will carry three kickers: one to punt, one to kick off and one to placekick.

 

Having said all that, our COCK-UP says Neil Rackers was the NFL's best kicker last year, and who are we to argue with that?