Week 9 Rusher Rating: Getting deep on the ground

By Ken Crippen
Cold, Hard Football Facts Running Threat

Denver’s Willis McGahee led all Week 9 rushers with a 150.27 Rusher Rating. His 20 carries for 163 yards and two touchdowns put him ahead of his next closest competitor. Houston’s Arian Foster had 19 carries for 124 yards and a touchdown to take second place with a 134.79 Rusher Rating.
 
Philadelphia’s LeSean McCoy still has the overall season lead with a 135.07 Rusher Rating. With Adrian Peterson on a bye, he holds steady with a 123.44 Rusher Rating, good for second place. Buffalo’s Fred Jackson slipped two spots in the season rankings, based on his worst performance of the season: 18 carries for 82 yards and a fumble for a 51.23 Rusher Rating.
 
San Francisco still leads the season in Rusher Rating Differential with 46.80. Baltimore is second with a 33.23 Rusher Rating Differential.

Here are the top 10 rushers of week 9 with a minimum of 15 attempts, based on Rusher Rating:
 

Player	Attempts	Yards	Yards per Attempt	TD	Fumbles	Rusher Rating
Willis McGahee – DEN	20	163	8.15	2	0	150.27
Arian Foster – HOU	19	124	6.53	1	0	134.79
LeSean McCoy – PHI	16	71	4.44	1	0	129.90
Brandon Jacobs – NYG	18	72	4.00	1	0	123.49
Marshawn Lynch – SEA	23	135	5.87	1	0	123.15
Mike Tolbert – SD	19	83	4.37	1	0	122.95
Michael Turner – ATL	19	71	3.74	1	0	119.48
Ray Rice – BAL	18	43	2.39	1	0	114.65
DeMarco Murray – DAL	22	139	6.32	0	0	87.45
Frank Gore – SF	19	107	5.63	0	0	83.68

 
 
Now, the top 10 rushers of the season with a minimum of 105 attempts, based on Rusher Rating:
 

Player	Attempts	Yards	Yards per Attempt	TD	Fumbles	Rusher Rating
LeSean McCoy – PHI	151	825	5.46	9	0	135.07
Adrian Peterson – MIN	167	798	4.78	9	1	123.44
Chris Wells – ARI	123	526	4.28	7	2	118.43
BenJarvus Green-Ellis – NE	108	452	4.19	5	0	116.38
Fred Jackson – BUF	150	803	5.35	6	1	114.08
Ahmad Bradshaw – NYG	111	440	3.96	5	0	114.07
Michael Turner – ATL	157	692	4.41	7	1	113.06
Ray Rice – BAL	133	532	4.00	6	1	110.73
Darren McFadden – OAK	113	614	5.43	4	1	109.44
Steven Jackson – STL	113	579	5.12	4	1	107.74

 
 

Situational Statistics
 

For the first time, we will look at situational statistics to determine running back efficiencies in various situations. However, we not only can evaluate the efficiency of the running back, but we can take a look at the overall running game for the team.
 
For this experiment, we used the top three running backs for the season (through week 8), based on Rusher Rating: McCoy, Peterson and Jackson. The results are rather interesting:
 
-Peterson has a perfect Rusher Rating of 158.33 in the last two minutes of the game.
 
-Fred Jackson is better rushing inside, between the center and left tackle. Peterson is best running farther left and McCoy is best on the left side or far outside to the right.
 
-Peterson’s Rusher Rating declines as the game goes on. The same goes for Jackson, but there is a steeper decline. McCoy performs best between 11 and 20 carries per game.
 
-All three are relatively consistent in the redzone.
 
Here are the numbers for all three backs through week 8 of the regular season:
 
LeSean McCoy (Through Week 8):

Player	Attempts	Yards	Yards per Attempt	TD	Fumbles	Rusher Rating
LeSean McCoy – PHI	135	754	5.59	8	0	135.44
Running Lane
Left End	39	173	4.44	2	0	122.13
Left Tackle	17	72	4.24	1	0	127.65
Left Guard	7	37	5.29	1	0	134.56
Center	33	262	7.94	1	0	122.94
Right Guard	6	27	4.50	0	0	77.47
Right Tackle	8	65	8.13	0	0	97.36
Right End	25	118	4.72	3	0	131.45
Attempts
1 through 10	69	371	5.38	3	0	120.44
11 through 20	44	282	6.41	4	0	140.72
21 through 30	22	101	4.59	1	0	117.87
Field Position
Own 1-20	18	89	4.94	0	0	79.91
Own 21-50	45	307	6.82	0	0	90.21
Opponent 49-20	45	268	5.96	1	0	104.96
Redzone	27	90	3.33	7	0	123.85
Half
1st	71	337	4.75	3	0	115.91
2nd	64	417	6.52	5	0	141.31
Last 2 Minutes	3	15	5.00	1	0	132.99
Quarter
1st	36	189	5.25	1	0	105.97
2nd	35	148	4.23	2	0	126.14
3rd	37	195	5.27	3	0	134.47
4th	27	222	8.22	2	0	150.67
Last 7 Minutes	11	64	5.82	0	0	84.70
Field Type
Grass	91	457	5.02	4	0	118.92
Turf	44	297	6.75	4	0	142.59

 
 
Adrian Peterson (Through Week 8):

Player	Attempts	Yards	Yards per Attempt	TD	Fumbles	Rusher Rating
Adrian Peterson – MIN	167	798	4.78	9	1	123.44
Running Lane
Left End	14	69	4.93	1	0	132.60
Left Tackle	17	60	3.53	1	0	123.78
Left Guard	22	79	3.59	0	0	72.48
Center	65	346	5.32	4	1	127.41
Right Guard	22	93	4.23	3	0	128.75
Right Tackle	14	108	7.71	0	0	60.98
Right End	13	43	3.31	0	0	70.93
Attempts
1 through 10	80	414	5.18	6	1	127.98
11 through 20	65	317	4.88	3	0	120.05
21 through 30	22	67	3.05	0	0	69.49
Field Position
Own 1-20	38	174	4.58	0	0	77.90
Own 21-50	56	328	5.86	0	1	76.38
Opponent 49-20	46	208	4.52	1	0	96.67
Redzone	27	88	3.26	8	0	123.44
Half
1st	87	459	5.28	7	1	129.01
2nd	80	339	4.24	2	0	97.97
Last 2 Minutes	6	64	10.67	1	0	158.33
Quarter
1st	52	260	5.00	4	0	132.99
2nd	35	199	5.69	3	1	123.10
3rd	34	213	6.26	2	0	138.79
4th	46	126	2.74	0	0	67.81
Last 7 Minutes	24	76	3.17	0	0	70.15
Field Type
Grass	72	303	4.21	2	0	100.25
Turf	95	495	5.21	7	1	129.12

 
 
Fred Jackson (Through Week 8):

Player	Attempts	Yards	Yards per Attempt	TD	Fumbles	Rusher Rating
Fred Jackson – BUF	132	721	5.46	6	0	122.65
Running Lane
Left End	10	71	7.10	0	0	91.74
Left Tackle	16	73	4.56	1	0	130.59
Left Guard	23	119	5.17	2	0	133.94
Center	45	284	6.31	3	0	140.18
Right Guard	18	112	6.22	0	0	86.92
Right Tackle	14	21	1.50	0	0	61.01
Right End	6	41	6.83	0	0	90.27
Attempts
1 through 10	70	450	6.43	4	0	138.21
11 through 20	50	237	4.74	2	0	113.90
21 through 30	12	34	2.83	0	0	68.32
Field Position
Own 1-20	25	254	10.16	1	0	140.67
Own 21-50	39	166	4.26	0	0	76.13
Opponent 49-20	47	253	5.38	1	0	100.99
Redzone	21	48	2.29	4	0	118.10
Half
1st	70	389	5.56	3	0	120.89
2nd	62	332	5.35	3	0	124.63
Last 2 Minutes	8	32	4.00	1	0	127.50
Quarter
1st	35	240	6.86	2	0	140.56
2nd	35	149	4.26	1	0	101.22
3rd	36	271	7.53	1	0	118.47
4th	26	61	2.53	2	0	118.43
Last 7 Minutes	17	24	1.41	2	0	113.30
Field Type
Grass	20	112	5.60	0	0	83.50
Turf	112	609	5.44	6	0	129.64

 

 

Real Running Back Rating

The missing component to the Rusher Rating System is the receiving component. With this final component, we now have a Real Running Back Rating. Looking at the season leaders through Week 8 of the NFL regular season (minimum 75 attempts) we have the following:
 

Player	Attempts	Yards	Yards per Attempt	TD	Fumbles	Rusher Rating
LeSean McCoy – PHI	135	754	5.59	8	0	135.44
Adrian Peterson – MIN	167	798	4.78	9	1	123.44
Fred Jackson – BUF	132	721	5.46	6	0	122.65
Chris Wells – ARI	113	506	4.48	7	2	121.67
BenJarvus Green-Ellis – NE	96	400	4.17	5	0	121.36
Steven Jackson – STL	84	449	5.35	4	1	118.22
Ahmad Bradshaw – NYG	111	440	3.96	5	0	114.07
Michael Turner – ATL	138	621	4.50	6	1	112.17
LeGarrette Blount – TB	77	328	4.26	3	0	110.35
Ray Rice – BAL	115	489	4.25	5	1	110.12

 
 
Now, if we add the receiving component, we have the following:
 

Player	Receptions	Receiving Yards	Receiving TD	Rusher Rating	Real RB Rating	Differential
LeSean McCoy – PHI	23	138	2	135.44	122.04	-13.40
Adrian Peterson – MIN	16	125	1	123.44	108.71	-14.73
Fred Jackson – BUF	27	353	0	122.65	92.96	-29.69
Chris Wells – ARI	4	12	0	121.67	78.58	-43.09
BenJarvus Green-Ellis – NE	4	38	0	121.36	86.89	-34.47
Steven Jackson – STL	16	83	1	118.22	102.08	-16.14
Ahmad Bradshaw – NYG	24	210	1	114.07	96.68	-17.09
Michael Turner – ATL	7	98	0	112.17	88.14	-24.03
LeGarrette Blount – TB	4	58	0	110.35	87.69	-22.66
Ray Rice – BAL	33	373	2	110.12	105.60	-4.52

 
McCoy and Peterson still lead the pack, but there is a noticeable shake-up throughout the rest of the top 10. Rice and Steven Jackson move up, while Wells drops to the bottom. In fact, Rice had the best differential of the top 10 running backs.
 
The situational statistics can also be applied with the receiving component to give a more complete picture of the true efficiency of a team’s running back in both phases of the game.
 
 

Rusher Rating Differential
 

Finally, here are all 32 teams ranked, based on Rusher Rating Differential, for the season:
 

Team	Rushing Attempts	Offensive Rusher Rating	Defensive Rushing Attempts	Defensive Rusher Rating	Rusher Rating Differential
San Francisco 49ers	246	98.11	163	51.31	46.80
Baltimore Ravens	209	98.66	207	65.43	33.23
Minnesota Vikings	230	117.23	198	93.45	23.78
Atlanta Falcons	223	109.49	195	89.26	20.23
New England Patriots	199	103.87	192	93.63	10.24
Houston Texans	313	99.19	201	89.56	9.63
Miami Dolphins	214	81.38	231	72.79	8.59
Carolina Panthers	214	115.92	230	107.73	8.19
San Diego Chargers	225	99.15	212	91.93	7.22
New York Giants	217	102.73	219	96.88	5.85
New Orleans Saints	240	107.64	202	102.99	4.65
Green Bay Packers	208	91.31	175	87.00	4.31
Philadelphia Eagles	241	106.70	198	104.06	2.64
Seattle Seahawks	175	86.34	257	84.99	1.35
Denver Broncos	226	88.51	238	88.51	0.00
Cincinnati Bengals	224	86.72	202	87.75	-1.03
Tennessee Titans	178	82.15	240	84.62	-2.47
Chicago Bears	202	98.02	169	101.20	-3.18
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	186	94.39	218	98.49	-4.10
Washington Redskins	186	90.30	218	95.05	-4.75
Buffalo Bills	217	103.64	209	108.71	-5.07
Detroit Lions	187	83.69	210	89.53	-5.84
Oakland Raiders	243	104.54	215	111.36	-6.82
Pittsburgh Steelers	232	93.12	206	101.25	-8.13
Arizona Cardinals	190	104.34	242	114.04	-9.70
Indianapolis Colts	201	89.67	318	101.32	-11.65
New York Jets	216	85.74	232	99.80	-14.06
St. Louis Rams	199	82.98	238	97.22	-14.24
Kansas City Chiefs	245	77.81	234	93.09	-15.28
Dallas Cowboys	198	80.78	193	96.33	-15.55
Cleveland Browns	211	60.07	261	89.85	-29.78
Jacksonville Jaguars	249	63.23	221	94.13	-30.90

 
 

How the Rusher Rating is Calculated
 

Here is how each component is calculated:
 
Average Yards Gained per Attempt (YD) = [Total Yards/(4.05 * Rushing Attempts)]
 
Percentage of TDs per Carry (TD) = [(39.5*Touchdowns)/Rushing Attempts]
 
Percentage of Fumbles per Carry (F) = [2.375-((21.5*Fumbles)/Rushing Attempts)]
 
Adding these components together and adjusting to a scale of 158.3 (the same as the NFL Passer Rating System) yields:
 
Rusher Rating = [(YD) + (TD) + (F)] * (100/4.5)
 
 

How the Real Running Back Rating is Calculated
 

Now, we look at the Real Running Back Rating. Here are the updated equations with the receiving components:
 
Average Yards Gained per Attempt (YD) = [Total Yards/(4.05 * Rushing Attempts)]
 
Percentage of TDs per Carry (RUSHTD) = [(39.5*Touchdowns)/Rushing Attempts]
 
Average Yards Gained per Reception (REC) = [Receiving Yards/(9*Receptions)]
 
Percentage of TDs per Reception (RECTD) = [(27.5*Touchdowns)/Receptions]
 
Percentage of Fumbles per Touch (F) = [2.375-((21.5*Fumbles)/(Rushes + Receptions))]
 
Adding these components together and adjusting to a scale of 158.3 yields:
 
Rusher Rating = [(YD) + (RUSHTD) + (REC) + (RECTD) + (F)] * (100/7.5)

---

---

Read more: Adrian Peterson, Ahmad Bradshaw, Arian Foster, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Benjarvus Green-Ellis, Brandon Jacobs, Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Chris Wells, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Darren McFadden, DeMarco Murray, Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, Frank Gore, fred jackson, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, legarrette blount, LeSean McCoy, Marshawn Lynch, Miami Dolphins, Michael Bush, Michael Turner, Mike Tolbert, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, New York Jets, NFL, Oakland Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, Ray Rice, Real Running Back Rating, rusher rating, San Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams, Steven Jackson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee Titans, Washington Redskins, Willis McGahee