Week 9 Rusher Rating: Getting deep on the ground

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Nov 08, 2011



By Ken Crippen
Cold, Hard Football Facts Running Threat


Denver’s Willis McGahee led all Week 9 rushers with a 150.27 Rusher Rating. His 20 carries for 163 yards and two touchdowns put him ahead of his next closest competitor. Houston’s Arian Foster had 19 carries for 124 yards and a touchdown to take second place with a 134.79 Rusher Rating.
 
Philadelphia’s LeSean McCoy still has the overall season lead with a 135.07 Rusher Rating. With Adrian Peterson on a bye, he holds steady with a 123.44 Rusher Rating, good for second place. Buffalo’s Fred Jackson slipped two spots in the season rankings, based on his worst performance of the season: 18 carries for 82 yards and a fumble for a 51.23 Rusher Rating.
 
San Francisco still leads the season in Rusher Rating Differential with 46.80. Baltimore is second with a 33.23 Rusher Rating Differential.

Here are the top 10 rushers of week 9 with a minimum of 15 attempts, based on Rusher Rating:
 
Player Attempts Yards Yards per Attempt TD Fumbles Rusher Rating
Willis McGahee – DEN 20 163 8.15 2 0 150.27
Arian Foster – HOU 19 124 6.53 1 0 134.79
LeSean McCoy – PHI 16 71 4.44 1 0 129.90
Brandon Jacobs – NYG 18 72 4.00 1 0 123.49
Marshawn Lynch – SEA 23 135 5.87 1 0 123.15
Mike Tolbert – SD 19 83 4.37 1 0 122.95
Michael Turner – ATL 19 71 3.74 1 0 119.48
Ray Rice – BAL 18 43 2.39 1 0 114.65
DeMarco Murray – DAL 22 139 6.32 0 0 87.45
Frank Gore – SF 19 107 5.63 0 0 83.68
 
 
Now, the top 10 rushers of the season with a minimum of 105 attempts, based on Rusher Rating:
 
Player Attempts Yards Yards per Attempt TD Fumbles Rusher Rating
LeSean McCoy – PHI 151 825 5.46 9 0 135.07
Adrian Peterson – MIN 167 798 4.78 9 1 123.44
Chris Wells – ARI 123 526 4.28 7 2 118.43
BenJarvus Green-Ellis – NE 108 452 4.19 5 0 116.38
Fred Jackson – BUF 150 803 5.35 6 1 114.08
Ahmad Bradshaw – NYG 111 440 3.96 5 0 114.07
Michael Turner – ATL 157 692 4.41 7 1 113.06
Ray Rice – BAL 133 532 4.00 6 1 110.73
Darren McFadden – OAK 113 614 5.43 4 1 109.44
Steven Jackson – STL 113 579 5.12 4 1 107.74
 
 

Situational Statistics
 

For the first time, we will look at situational statistics to determine running back efficiencies in various situations. However, we not only can evaluate the efficiency of the running back, but we can take a look at the overall running game for the team.
 
For this experiment, we used the top three running backs for the season (through week 8), based on Rusher Rating: McCoy, Peterson and Jackson. The results are rather interesting:
 
-Peterson has a perfect Rusher Rating of 158.33 in the last two minutes of the game.
 
-Fred Jackson is better rushing inside, between the center and left tackle. Peterson is best running farther left and McCoy is best on the left side or far outside to the right.
 
-Peterson’s Rusher Rating declines as the game goes on. The same goes for Jackson, but there is a steeper decline. McCoy performs best between 11 and 20 carries per game.
 
-All three are relatively consistent in the redzone.
 
Here are the numbers for all three backs through week 8 of the regular season:
 
LeSean McCoy (Through Week 8):
Player Attempts Yards Yards per Attempt TD Fumbles Rusher Rating
LeSean McCoy – PHI 135 754 5.59 8 0 135.44
 
Running Lane            
Left End 39 173 4.44 2 0 122.13
Left Tackle 17 72 4.24 1 0 127.65
Left Guard 7 37 5.29 1 0 134.56
Center 33 262 7.94 1 0 122.94
Right Guard 6 27 4.50 0 0 77.47
Right Tackle 8 65 8.13 0 0 97.36
Right End 25 118 4.72 3 0 131.45
 
Attempts            
1 through 10 69 371 5.38 3 0 120.44
11 through 20 44 282 6.41 4 0 140.72
21 through 30 22 101 4.59 1 0 117.87
 
Field Position            
Own 1-20 18 89 4.94 0 0 79.91
Own 21-50 45 307 6.82 0 0 90.21
Opponent 49-20 45 268 5.96 1 0 104.96
Redzone 27 90 3.33 7 0 123.85
 
Half            
1st 71 337 4.75 3 0 115.91
2nd 64 417 6.52 5 0 141.31
Last 2 Minutes 3 15 5.00 1 0 132.99
 
Quarter            
1st 36 189 5.25 1 0 105.97
2nd 35 148 4.23 2 0 126.14
3rd 37 195 5.27 3 0 134.47
4th 27 222 8.22 2 0 150.67
Last 7 Minutes 11 64 5.82 0 0 84.70
 
Field Type            
Grass 91 457 5.02 4 0 118.92
Turf 44 297 6.75 4 0 142.59
 
 
Adrian Peterson (Through Week 8):
Player Attempts Yards Yards per Attempt TD Fumbles Rusher Rating
Adrian Peterson – MIN 167 798 4.78 9 1 123.44
 
Running Lane            
Left End 14 69 4.93 1 0 132.60
Left Tackle 17 60 3.53 1 0 123.78
Left Guard 22 79 3.59 0 0 72.48
Center 65 346 5.32 4 1 127.41
Right Guard 22 93 4.23 3 0 128.75
Right Tackle 14 108 7.71 0 0 60.98
Right End 13 43 3.31 0 0 70.93
 
Attempts            
1 through 10 80 414 5.18 6 1 127.98
11 through 20 65 317 4.88 3 0 120.05
21 through 30 22 67 3.05 0 0 69.49
 
Field Position            
Own 1-20 38 174 4.58 0 0 77.90
Own 21-50 56 328 5.86 0 1 76.38
Opponent 49-20 46 208 4.52 1 0 96.67
Redzone 27 88 3.26 8 0 123.44
 
Half            
1st 87 459 5.28 7 1 129.01
2nd 80 339 4.24 2 0 97.97
Last 2 Minutes 6 64 10.67 1 0 158.33
 
Quarter            
1st 52 260 5.00 4 0 132.99
2nd 35 199 5.69 3 1 123.10
3rd 34 213 6.26 2 0 138.79
4th 46 126 2.74 0 0 67.81
Last 7 Minutes 24 76 3.17 0 0 70.15
 
Field Type            
Grass 72 303 4.21 2 0 100.25
Turf 95 495 5.21 7 1 129.12
 
 
Fred Jackson (Through Week 8):
Player Attempts Yards Yards per Attempt TD Fumbles Rusher Rating
Fred Jackson – BUF 132 721 5.46 6 0 122.65
 
Running Lane            
Left End 10 71 7.10 0 0 91.74
Left Tackle 16 73 4.56 1 0 130.59
Left Guard 23 119 5.17 2 0 133.94
Center 45 284 6.31 3 0 140.18
Right Guard 18 112 6.22 0 0 86.92
Right Tackle 14 21 1.50 0 0 61.01
Right End 6 41 6.83 0 0 90.27
 
Attempts            
1 through 10 70 450 6.43 4 0 138.21
11 through 20 50 237 4.74 2 0 113.90
21 through 30 12 34 2.83 0 0 68.32
 
Field Position            
Own 1-20 25 254 10.16 1 0 140.67
Own 21-50 39 166 4.26 0 0 76.13
Opponent 49-20 47 253 5.38 1 0 100.99
Redzone 21 48 2.29 4 0 118.10
 
Half            
1st 70 389 5.56 3 0 120.89
2nd 62 332 5.35 3 0 124.63
Last 2 Minutes 8 32 4.00 1 0 127.50
 
Quarter            
1st 35 240 6.86 2 0 140.56
2nd 35 149 4.26 1 0 101.22
3rd 36 271 7.53 1 0 118.47
4th 26 61 2.53 2 0 118.43
Last 7 Minutes 17 24 1.41 2 0 113.30
 
Field Type            
Grass 20 112 5.60 0 0 83.50
Turf 112 609 5.44 6 0 129.64
 

 

Real Running Back Rating

The missing component to the Rusher Rating System is the receiving component. With this final component, we now have a Real Running Back Rating. Looking at the season leaders through Week 8 of the NFL regular season (minimum 75 attempts) we have the following:
 
Player Attempts Yards Yards per Attempt TD Fumbles Rusher Rating
LeSean McCoy – PHI 135 754 5.59 8 0 135.44
Adrian Peterson – MIN 167 798 4.78 9 1 123.44
Fred Jackson – BUF 132 721 5.46 6 0 122.65
Chris Wells – ARI 113 506 4.48 7 2 121.67
BenJarvus Green-Ellis – NE 96 400 4.17 5 0 121.36
Steven Jackson – STL 84 449 5.35 4 1 118.22
Ahmad Bradshaw – NYG 111 440 3.96 5 0 114.07
Michael Turner – ATL 138 621 4.50 6 1 112.17
LeGarrette Blount – TB 77 328 4.26 3 0 110.35
Ray Rice – BAL 115 489 4.25 5 1 110.12
 
 
Now, if we add the receiving component, we have the following:
 
Player Receptions Receiving Yards Receiving TD Rusher Rating Real RB Rating Differential
LeSean McCoy – PHI 23 138 2 135.44 122.04 -13.40
Adrian Peterson – MIN 16 125 1 123.44 108.71 -14.73
Fred Jackson – BUF 27 353 0 122.65 92.96 -29.69
Chris Wells – ARI 4 12 0 121.67 78.58 -43.09
BenJarvus Green-Ellis – NE 4 38 0 121.36 86.89 -34.47
Steven Jackson – STL 16 83 1 118.22 102.08 -16.14
Ahmad Bradshaw – NYG 24 210 1 114.07 96.68 -17.09
Michael Turner – ATL 7 98 0 112.17 88.14 -24.03
LeGarrette Blount – TB 4 58 0 110.35 87.69 -22.66
Ray Rice – BAL 33 373 2 110.12 105.60 -4.52
 
McCoy and Peterson still lead the pack, but there is a noticeable shake-up throughout the rest of the top 10. Rice and Steven Jackson move up, while Wells drops to the bottom. In fact, Rice had the best differential of the top 10 running backs.
 
The situational statistics can also be applied with the receiving component to give a more complete picture of the true efficiency of a team’s running back in both phases of the game.
 
 

Rusher Rating Differential
 

Finally, here are all 32 teams ranked, based on Rusher Rating Differential, for the season:
 
Team Rushing Attempts Offensive Rusher Rating Defensive Rushing Attempts Defensive Rusher Rating Rusher Rating Differential
San Francisco 49ers 246 98.11 163 51.31 46.80
Baltimore Ravens 209 98.66 207 65.43 33.23
Minnesota Vikings 230 117.23 198 93.45 23.78
Atlanta Falcons 223 109.49 195 89.26 20.23
New England Patriots 199 103.87 192 93.63 10.24
Houston Texans 313 99.19 201 89.56 9.63
Miami Dolphins 214 81.38 231 72.79 8.59
Carolina Panthers 214 115.92 230 107.73 8.19
San Diego Chargers 225 99.15 212 91.93 7.22
New York Giants 217 102.73 219 96.88 5.85
New Orleans Saints 240 107.64 202 102.99 4.65
Green Bay Packers 208 91.31 175 87.00 4.31
Philadelphia Eagles 241 106.70 198 104.06 2.64
Seattle Seahawks 175 86.34 257 84.99 1.35
Denver Broncos 226 88.51 238 88.51 0.00
Cincinnati Bengals 224 86.72 202 87.75 -1.03
Tennessee Titans 178 82.15 240 84.62 -2.47
Chicago Bears 202 98.02 169 101.20 -3.18
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 186 94.39 218 98.49 -4.10
Washington Redskins 186 90.30 218 95.05 -4.75
Buffalo Bills 217 103.64 209 108.71 -5.07
Detroit Lions 187 83.69 210 89.53 -5.84
Oakland Raiders 243 104.54 215 111.36 -6.82
Pittsburgh Steelers 232 93.12 206 101.25 -8.13
Arizona Cardinals 190 104.34 242 114.04 -9.70
Indianapolis Colts 201 89.67 318 101.32 -11.65
New York Jets 216 85.74 232 99.80 -14.06
St. Louis Rams 199 82.98 238 97.22 -14.24
Kansas City Chiefs 245 77.81 234 93.09 -15.28
Dallas Cowboys 198 80.78 193 96.33 -15.55
Cleveland Browns 211 60.07 261 89.85 -29.78
Jacksonville Jaguars 249 63.23 221 94.13 -30.90
 
 

How the Rusher Rating is Calculated
 

Here is how each component is calculated:
 
Average Yards Gained per Attempt (YD) = [Total Yards/(4.05 * Rushing Attempts)]
 
Percentage of TDs per Carry (TD) = [(39.5*Touchdowns)/Rushing Attempts]
 
Percentage of Fumbles per Carry (F) = [2.375-((21.5*Fumbles)/Rushing Attempts)]
 
Adding these components together and adjusting to a scale of 158.3 (the same as the NFL Passer Rating System) yields:
 
Rusher Rating = [(YD) + (TD) + (F)] * (100/4.5)
 
 

How the Real Running Back Rating is Calculated
 

Now, we look at the Real Running Back Rating. Here are the updated equations with the receiving components:
 
Average Yards Gained per Attempt (YD) = [Total Yards/(4.05 * Rushing Attempts)]
 
Percentage of TDs per Carry (RUSHTD) = [(39.5*Touchdowns)/Rushing Attempts]
 
Average Yards Gained per Reception (REC) = [Receiving Yards/(9*Receptions)]
 
Percentage of TDs per Reception (RECTD) = [(27.5*Touchdowns)/Receptions]
 
Percentage of Fumbles per Touch (F) = [2.375-((21.5*Fumbles)/(Rushes + Receptions))]
 
Adding these components together and adjusting to a scale of 158.3 yields:
 
Rusher Rating = [(YD) + (RUSHTD) + (REC) + (RECTD) + (F)] * (100/7.5)

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