Week 9 in Review: A Monday Night Microcosm

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Nov 05, 2013



You know it’s been a tough year for the Mighty Cold, Hard Football Facts (and apparently the rest of the world of NFL stats analysis) when you’re on the verge of a long overdue victory lap against the spread.

And then Green Bay Packers star quarterback Aaron Rodgers is knocked out of his Monday Night Football game after just two pass attempts.

Rodgers and the Packers were playing at home, with one of the best passing attacks in football, against the wounded Bears defense, and against a hapless Chicago unit that was dead last in the NFL against the pass, allowing 8.05 Real Passing Yards Per Attempt.

The game shaped up as a statistical cake walk – and then Rodgers suffered a broken collar bone on Green Bay's first drive.

The outcome for the Packers fell into the lap of Seneca Wallace, who hadn’t thrown a pass in two years, who was held to 3.87 Real Passing YPA against one of the league’s worst pass defenses, and who was easily outgunned by Bears back-up Josh McCown.

But at least that McCown effort (272 passing yards) closed out a winning 3-1 week for the King of Props (McCown over 240.5 passing yards).

The King of Props (22-14; .611) and the Intelligence Index (12-7; .632) continue to power our winning efforts this season, even as the CHFF Trifecta struggles to find its footing and our Real and Spectacular Picks suffer through a dismal season after four years of great success.

We’ve already erased a season’s worth of past victories at this point in 2013. In our first three seasons, we never suffered consecutive losing weeks ATS and averaged 28.5 games above .500 ATS over the course of each season. This year, we can't find one winning week and are facing the very real and now likely prospect of the first losing season ATS in our five-year history of analysis.

 

Week 8 and Year-to-Date Results

King of Props Week 1 – 4-0

King of Props Week 2 – 2-2

King of Props Week 3 – 3-1

King of Props Week 4 – 2-2

King of Props Week 5 – 4-0

King of Props Week 6 – 1-3

King of Props Week 7 – 2-2

King of Props Week 8 – 1-3

King of Props Week 9 – 3-1

Year to Date – 22-14 (.611)

 

Real and Spectacular picks Week 1 – 11-5 straight up; 5-10-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular picks Week 2 – 13-3 straight up; 6-9-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular picks Week 3 – 9-7 straight up; 7-8-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular picks Week 4 – 8-7 straight up; 5-10 ATS

Real and Spectacular picks Week 5 – 8-6 straight up; 3-11 ATS

Real and Spectacular picks Week 6 – 9-6 straight up; 7-8 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 7 – 9-5 straight up; 5-9 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 8 – 10-3 straight up; 6-7 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 9 – 8-5 straight up; 6-7 ATS

Year to Date: 85-47 (.644) straight up; 50-79-3 (.388) ATS

 

Intelligence Index Week 2 – 1-0 straight up; 1-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 3 – 3-0 straight up; 3-0 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 4 – 3-0 straight up; 3-0 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 5 – 1-0 straight up; 1-0 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 6 – 2-1 straight up; 1-2 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 7 – 1-1 straight up; 0-2 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 8 – 3-0 straight up; 2-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 9 – 2-1 straight up; 1-2 ATS

Year to Date: 16-3 (.842) straight up; 12-7 (.632) ATS

 

CHFF Trifecta Week 1 – 0-3

CHFF Trifecta Week 2 – 2-0-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 3 – 0-2-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 4 – 1-2

CHFF Trifecta Week 5 – 1-2

CHFF Trifecta Week 6 – 0-3

CHFF Trifecta Week 7 – 2-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 8 – 2-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 9 – 1-2

Year to Date – 9-16-2 (.360)

 

Week 8 Real and Spectacular Picks

Cincinnati (-2.5) at Miami

CHFF Pick: Cincinnati 26, Miami 20

Final Score: Miami 22, Cincinnati 20

CHFF Result: straight up loss (0-1); ATS loss (0-1)

 

Atlanta at Carolina (-7.5)

CHFF Pick: Carolina 27, Atlanta 17

Final Score: Carolina 34, Atlanta 10

CHFF Result: straight up win (1-1); ATS win (1-1)

 

Kansas City (-3) at Buffalo

CHFF Pick: Kansas City 21, Buffalo 16

Final Score: Kansas City 23, Buffalo 13

CHFF Result: straight up win (2-1); ATS win (2-1)

 

Minnesota at Dallas (-10)

CHFF Pick: Dallas 31, Minnesota 17

Final Score: Dallas 27, Minnesota 23

CHFF Result: straight up win (3-1); ATS loss (2-2)

 

New Orleans (-5.5) at N.Y. Jets

CHFF Pick: New Orleans 27, N.Y. Jets 17

Final Score: N.Y. Jets 26, New Orleans 20

CHFF Result: straight up loss (3-2); ATS loss (2-3)

 

San Diego (-1) at Washington

CHFF Pick: San Diego 28, Washington 24

Final Score: Washington 30, San Diego 24

CHFF Result: straight up loss (3-3); ATS loss (2-4)

 

Tennessee (-3) at St. Louis

CHFF Pick: Tennessee 19, St. Louis 14

Final Score: Tennessee 28, St. Louis 21

CHFF Result: straight up win (4-3); ATS win (3-4)

 

Philadelphia at Oakland (-2.5)

CHFF Pick: Oakland 20, Philadelphia 14

Final Score: Philadelphia 49, Oakland 20

CHFF Result: straight up loss (4-4); ATS loss (3-5)

 

Tampa Bay at Seattle (-16.5)

CHFF Pick: Seattle 30, Tampa Bay 10

Final Score: Seattle 27, Tampa Bay 24

CHFF Result: straight up win (5-4); ATS loss (3-6)

 

Baltimore (-2.5) at Cleveland

CHFF Pick: Cleveland 20, Baltimore 17

Final Score: Cleveland 24, Baltimore 18

CHFF Result: straight up win (6-4); ATS win (4-6)

 

Pittsburgh at New England (-6.5)

CHFF Pick: New England 24, Pittsburgh 14

Final Score: New England 55, Pittsburgh 31

CHFF Result: straight up win (7-4); ATS win (5-6)

 

Indianapolis (-2.5) at Houston

CHFF Pick: Indianapolis 24, Houston 20

Final Score: Indianapolis 27, Houston 24

CHFF Result: straight up win (8-4); ATS win (6-6)

 

Chicago at Green Bay (-10.5)

CHFF Pick: Green Bay 34, Chicago 20

Final Score: Chicago 27, Green Bay 20

CHFF Result: straight up loss (8-5); ATS loss (6-7)

 


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