Week 7 in Review: Denver's Frighteningly Bad Defense

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Oct 26, 2013



Longtime Cold, Hard Football Facts readers, and Insiders in particular, know that we’ve buttered our bread with outright victories by notable underdogs dating back to the dawn of our Real and Spectacular picks in 2009.

We regained a bit of that mojo in Week 7, calling for outright victories by Dallas,  a curious 3-point dog at Philadelphia, and by Indianapolis, a 7-point dog at home.

Both delivered easily: Dallas won 17-3 while Indianapolis exposed all the flaws in Denver’s game that rendered them a humble No. 6 on our Quality Stats Power Rankings, despite all the hype surrounding the Broncos elsewhere. The Colts won, 39-33.

Denver is certainly not the best team in the AFC, and will be hard pressed to reach the Super Bowl with a defense that's about as frightening as the Great Pumpkin of Charlie Brown fame.

Elsewhere, however, our season of struggles continued to haunt our Real and Spectacular picks – and not even the re-emergence of long-time Pigskin Prognosticating Muse Teri Hatcher last week, to the cheers of many CHFF Insiders, could stem the bleeding.

And it appears that we’re not alone: Deadspin this week wrote an article analyzing the performance of some of the other stat-based sites out there. We weren’t mentioned in the piece, but it appears there’s been a sea change in the way Vegas sets its numbers.

We’ve often wondered when the Wise Guys would get wise to the new ways of analyzing NFL games that provided CHFF so much success over the years. Well, it appears that time is here.

The key for us has been to innovate and find new statistical strategies to stay ahead of the market and to continue to provide ways to win in the NFL.

We’ve clearly done that this year with the new Intelligence Index (9-4 ATS; .692), which we pioneered during the 2013 off-season, and with the King of Props (18-10; .643). They enter Week 8 a combined 27-14 (.659) providing winning bets as we enter the halfway point of the season.

In other words, there are still plenty of winners on the boards being harvested like a Great Pumpkin of Pigskin.

 

Week 7 and Year-to-Date Results

King of Props Week 1 – 4-0

King of Props Week 2 – 2-2

King of Props Week 3 – 3-1

King of Props Week 4 – 2-2

King of Props Week 5 – 4-0

King of Props Week 6 – 1-3

King of Props Week 7 – 2-2

Year to Date – 18-10

 

Real and Spectacular picks Week 1 – 11-5 straight up; 5-10-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular picks Week 2 – 13-3 straight up; 6-9-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular picks Week 3 – 9-7 straight up; 7-8-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular picks Week 4 – 8-7 straight up; 5-10 ATS

Real and Spectacular picks Week 5 – 8-6 straight up; 3-11 ATS

Real and Spectacular picks Week 6 – 9-6 straight up; 7-8 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 7 – 9-5 straight up; 5-9 ATS

Year to Date: 67-39 straight up; 38-65-3 ATS

 

Intelligence Index Week 2 – 1-0 straight up; 1-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 3 – 3-0 straight up; 3-0 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 4 – 3-0 straight up; 3-0 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 5 – 1-0 straight up; 1-0 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 6 – 2-1 straight up; 1-2 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 7 – 1-1 straight up; 0-2 ATS

Year to Date: 11-2 straight up; 9-4 ATS

 

CHFF Trifecta Week 1 – 0-3

CHFF Trifecta Week 2 – 2-0-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 3 – 0-2-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 4 – 1-2

CHFF Trifecta Week 5 – 1-2

CHFF Trifecta Week 6 – 0-3

CHFF Trifecta Week 7 – 2-1

Year to Date – 6-13-2

 

Week 7 Real and Spectacular Picks

Seattle (-7) at Arizona

CHFF Pick: Seattle 24, Arizona 20

Final Score: Seattle 34, Arizona 22

CHFF Result: straight up win (1-0); ATS loss (0-1)

 

Buffalo at Miami (-8.5)

CHFF Pick: Miami 24, Buffalo 21

Final Score: Buffalo 23, Miami 21

CHFF Result: straight up loss (1-1); ATS win (1-1)

 

Chicago at Washington (-1)

CHFF Pick: Chicago 27, Washington 24

Final Score: Washington 45, Chicago 41

CHFF Result: straight up loss (1-2); ATS loss (1-2)

 

Cincinnati at Detroit (-3)

CHFF Pick: Detroit 24, Cincinnati 19

Final Score: Cincinnati 27, Detroit 24

CHFF Result: straight up loss (1-3); ATS loss (1-3)

 

Dallas at Philadelphia (-3)

CHFF Pick: Dallas 31, Philadelphia 28

Final Score: Dallas 17, Philadelphia 3

CHFF Result: straight up win (2-3); ATS win (2-3)

 

Houston at Kansas City (-6.5)

CHFF Pick: Kansas City 24, Houston 13

Final Score: Kansas City 17, Houston 16

CHFF Result: straight up win (3-3); ATS loss (2-4)

 

New England (-4) at N.Y. Jets

CHFF Pick: New England 24, N.Y. Jets 17

Final Score: N.Y. Jets 30, New England 27

CHFF Result: straight up loss (3-4); ATS loss (2-5)

 

 

San Diego (-7.5) at Jacksonville

CHFF Pick: San Diego 30, Jacksonville 17

Final Score: San Diego 24, Jacksonville 6

CHFF Result: straight up win (4-4); ATS win (3-5)

 

St. Louis at Carolina (-6)

CHFF Pick: Carolina 24, St. Louis 14

Final Score: Carolina 30, St. Louis 15

CHFF Result: straight up win (5-4); ATS win (4-5)

 

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-7)

CHFF Pick: Atlanta 21, Tampa Bay 17

Final Score: Atlanta 31, Tampa Bay 23

CHFF Result: straight up win (6-4); ATS loss (4-6)

 

San Francisco (-4) at Tennessee

CHFF Pick: San Francisco 23, Tennessee 21

Final Score: San Francisco 31, Tennessee 17

CHFF Result: straight up win (7-4); ATS loss (4-7)

 

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-1.5)

CHFF Pick: Baltimore 20, Pittsburgh 17

Final Score: Pittsburgh 19, Baltimore 16

CHFF Result: straight up loss (7-5); ATS loss (4-8)

 

Cleveland at Green Bay (-10)

CHFF Pick: Green Bay 23, Cleveland 17

Final Score: Green Bay 31, Cleveland 13

CHFF Result: straight up win (8-5); ATS loss (4-9)

 

Denver (-7) at Indianapolis

CHFF Pick: Indianapolis 27, Denver 26

Final Score: Indianapolis 39, Denver 33

CHFF Result: straight up win (9-5); ATS win (5-9)


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