Week 7 real and spectacular picks

Babe Ruth batted .290 in 1925. Peyton Manning threw four picks in the 2003 AFC title game. And Elvis sang "In the Ghetto."

 

Ouch.

 

Well, like all the greats of before, whether on the gridiron or otherwise, the mighty, mighty Cold, Hard Football Facts have hit something of a dry spell recently. Here's the weekly performance of our real and spectacular Picks in 2010:

 

* originally reported as 8-6 ATS

 

Yes, not so hot. But the long-term trends are still very, very strong, our flabby brother Troll: just six losing weeks ATS in 23 opportunities since the start of the 2009 season. That's pretty damn good in a very exacting art form. In fact, here's our weekly effort last year, too.

 

Week 1: 10-6

Week 2: 5-11                       

Week 3: 10-6                       

Week 4: 8-6             

Week 5: 11-3                       

Week 6: 9-5                         

Week 7: 8-5 

Week 8: 3-10                       

Week 9: 7-6             

Week 10: 10-5         

Week 11: 12-4         

Week 12: 10-5         

Week 13: 5-11         

Week 14: 9-7                       

Week 15: 8-8                       

Week 16: 10-6 

Week 17: 9-7         

 

2009 total ATS: 144-111 (.565).

It all adds up to an impressive 2009-10 total ATS of 186-155 (.545). So stickwith old Uncle CHFF and we'll continue to treat you well.

 

How is that high-profile receiving tandem working out for you this year, Cincy?

 

Let's see: Chad Ochocinco has 1.5 million Twitter followers and 1 touchdown reception this year. Terrell Owens has 600,000 Twitter followers and 2 TD receptions.

 

We'd say it's not working very well. Back-to-back losses to Cleveland and Tampa before the bye week say it's not working very well, too.

 

Atlanta, meanwhile, was lit up by Philadelphia last week – but the Eagles boasted an elite passing attack (No. 2 in the NFL with a 103.3 Offensive Passer Rating).

 

Cincy's passing attack is way down near the bottom of the league (78.26 Offensive Passer Rating). Gee, and some people not called the Cold, Hard Football Facts might tell you that a pair of high-profile receivers would make a big difference in the effectiveness of the passing game. It has not.

 

It's hard to see the Bengals moving the ball effectively against the league's No. 5 scoring defense (16.8 PPG).

 

 

We'll make this very simple: Miami is not very good on offense (17.8 PPG, 24th); Pittsburgh is very good on defense (12.0 PPG, 1st).

 

Most curiously, the Dolphins are 3-0 on the road this year (Bills, Vikings, Packers); 0-2 at home (granted, losses to the very good Jets and Patriots).

 

The Steelers will easily make it 0-3 at home for the 'Fins, who will find it extraordinarily difficult to move the ball on offense or contain Ben Roethlisberger on defense (257 yards, 3 TD in his first game back last week).

 

 

The good news is that the Bills haven't lost in two weeks. The bad news is that they haven't played in two weeks.

 

In the "Troll bites Buffalo wing" category of breaking news, the Bills are really, really, really bad, folks. They're dead last in scoring defense (32.2 PPG), dead last in point differential (-74), dead last in Bendability (11.88 YPPA), dead last on the Defensive Hog Index, dead last at forcing Negative Pass Plays (4.93%), dead last in Defensive Passer Rating (114.8) and dead last in interceptions (1).

 

The Ravens have proven to have explosive games within them: eight 14-point-plus wins in their 24 games since the start of 2009. And Buffalo is clearly vulnerable in so many ways. They've suffered seven 14-point-plus defeats since the start of 2009.

 

This sounds like another one.

 

 

The Chiefs were the NFL's Big Story of the Year in September, after their 3-0 start. They've been a big dud here in October, with back to back losses to the Colts and Texans.

 

The Saints are finally getting their swerve, after hanging 31 points over what appeared to be a solid Tampa club. Of course, they were smoked 30-20 in Arizona a week earlier.

 

Swerve is such a fickle bitch.

 

The biggest problem in New Orleans right now is consistency, or lack thereof. You just don't know what you're going to get from week to week, and three of the four wins have been narrow victories over bad teams (five over the Vikings, three over the 49ers, two over the Panthers).

 

The Browns are not good and can't move the ball (14.7 PPG, 31st). But last week's 28-10 loss to Pittsburgh was Cleveland's first two-touchdown-plus loss in 13 weeks.

 

 

Jay Cutler, as we've noted this week and several times this year, is going to get killed out there behind the worst Offensive Hogs in the biz.

 

Washington, however, is not equipped to exploit that weakness: 24 teams boast better Defensive Hogs than the 'Skins, and only three teams are worse at pressuring the quarterback. Washington forces a Negative Pass Play on just 6.16 percent of dropbacks.

 

Chicago will find some success on the ground, easing the pressure on Cutler and paving the way to victory. The Bears, meanwhile, quietly field one of the league's best defenses: third in scoring (16.2 PPG).

 

 

The Bills do not play either of these clubs this year, so 49ers-Panthers is officially the worst game of the year: San Francisco is 1-5 and No. 30 in our Power Rankings; Carolina is 0-5 and No. 31 in our Power Rankings.

 

If you love inept offenses, this is your game: the 49ers are 30th in scoring offense (15.5 PPG);  the Panthers are dead last in scoring (10.4 PPG).

 

If Carolina is going to win a game this year, this is the one: at home against a poor team with a lousy offense traveling from coast to coast. But look for San Francisco to weakly limp over the finish line ahead of the piss-poor Panthers

 

 

 

This huge inter-conference showdown between Super Bowl hopefuls is our Game of the Week at Sports Illustrated.com.

 

 

If the NFL thinks it has a problem with helmet-to-helmet hits, maybe it should look at the problems with its consistently awful NFC schedules: Cardinals-Seahawks is the last in a trio of non-descript games among bad to middling NFC teams that seem to arise with great frequency in the senior circuit in recent years.

 

You know the basic story out of Seattle: Pete Carroll's Seahawks are very Pumped 'n Jacked in home games (2-0, 58 PF, 26 PA). They're not so Pumped 'n Jacked on the road (1-2; 40 PF, 71 PA).

 

The Cardinals suffer a similar fate: 2-0 at home (54 PF, 43 PA) and 1-2 on the road (34 PF, 95 PA).

 

We think the obvious thing in this instance is just to ride the trends and look for Seattle to roll at home.

 

 

This game shapes up as a huge statistical mismatch in favor of the Chargers: San Diego is No. 1 in Passing YPA (7.94), No. 1 in Passer Rating Differential, No. 2 in Defensive Passer Rating (67.78), and No. 3 in Offensive Passer Rating (100.8)

 

New England counters with a Hall of Fame quarterback, sure, and one having a very good season (98.54 passer rating). But they also counter with what is still one of the worst pass defenses in football (96.37 Defensive Passer Rating).

 

In fact, despite shutting down the Ravens in the second half last week, that lowly DPR means that New England is on pace to field the worst pass defense in franchise history. The Patriots have also allowed opposing passers to complete 70.8 percent of their passes – among the highest completion rates against a team in the history of the NFL.

 

But as the 4-1 Patriots and 2-4 Chargers have proven this year, some teams are much more or much less than the sum of their parts.

 

 New England is a well oiled, finely coached machine that plays very smart football: No. 2 in Scoreability, No. 17 in Bendability.

 

San Diego is a gummed up, poorly coached machine that plays very dumb football: No. 18 in Scoreability, No. 31 in Bendability.

 

The always-difficult cross-country is the final factor in this game, while San Diego has twice won big at home this year.

 

 

Kyle Orton must be licking his chops ... or at least his old porn 'stache.

 

The Denver quarterback averages 323.7 passing yards per game and 7.9 YPA, with a nifty 94.2 passer rating. Oakland responds with one of the league's worst pass defenses (98.6 Defensive Passer Rating), while surrendering 12 TD with just 2 INT.

Oakland is not good ... but they're not the pushover they once were. And the Broncos (2-4) aren't exactly blowing out the competition despite the prolific passing days.

 

The Raiders might be vulnerable to a balanced offense – they surrender 5.01 YPA on the ground (31st). But the Broncos are not equipped to exploit that opportunity. They're dead last running the ball (2.68 YPA).