Week 17 in Review: CHFF Rides Big Wave Into Postseason

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Dec 30, 2013



Investment advisors constantly tell their clients that diversification is the key to a sound long-term investment plan.

A diversified portfolio mitigates volatility and provides safe havens no matter the market conditions: when one sector struggles, another is likely performing well.

It’s a contemporary interpretation of the old proverb: don’t put all your eggs in one basket.

Cold, Hard Football Facts Insider, for the first time in 2013, offered four different egg baskets of picks.

No longer did we rely solely on the guiding headlights of inspiration provided by our long-time Real and Spectacular Pigskin Prognosticating muse, the lovely Ms. Teri Hatcher.

It proved a well-timed strategy.

The huge success of the King of Props and the Intelligence Index mitigated the damage caused by the worst season in the five-year history of our Real and Spectacular Picks. Both those portfolios ended the season beating the market well over 60 percent of the time.

And now those same Real and Spectacular Picks are doing what they do best for five years running: nailing ATS winners at a spectacular rate late in the season.

After a dismal start, we’ve suffered just one schedule of ATS losers over the final seven weeks of the season. We capped this performance with our two best records of the year:

  • 72-36-1 straight up and 60-44-5 (.577) ATS since Week 11
  • 11-5 straight up and 11-5 (.688) ATS in Week 16
  • 13-3 straight up and 12-4 (.750) ATS in Week 17
  • 24-8 straight up and 23-9 (.719) ATS since Week 16

We’ve known for some time that our Quality Stats grow more valid as we get later in the season. And we now have five seasons of proof. The late-season surge here in 2013 is part of a long-term trend of big-money-making late-year success dating back to 2009, when we began picking every game, every week, both straight up and ATS.

Our Real and Spectacular picks are:

  • 102-57-1 (.642) ATS in Weeks 16 and 17 (2009-present)
  • 131-72-1 (.645) ATS Week 16 through Super Bowl (2009-present)
  • 29-15 (.659) ATS in the postseason (2009-12)
  • 15-7 (.682) ATS in the last two postseasons (2011-12)
  • 65-30-1 (.684) ATS in Weeks 16 and 17 (2011-present)
  • 80-37-1 (.684) ATS Week 16 through Super Bowl (2011-present)

You can see our performance every week from 2009 to 2012 documented here; and every week’s performance here in 2013 documented below.

You can look up every individual pick from 2010 through 2013 by clicking the "All Stats" button on the NAV bar here at CHFF Insider. You can also find there our week-by-week Quality Stats if you wanted to see where, say, Denver's Passer Rating Differential stood in Week 14 2011. Our individual picks in 2009 can be found with a little digging in our main homesite archive

 

Week 17 in Review

Our Real and Spectacular Picks went 13-3 straight up and 12-4 ATS – Our second-straight big-money-making weak and continuing our history of late-season success. We suffered only one game that was a loss both straight up and ATS, and even that outcome was pretty damn close to our vision.

San Francisco at Arizona was a toss-up when we published our pick: Arizona 21, San Francisco 20; the 49ers won 23-20 with a 40-yard field goal as time expired.

Our Real and Spectacular Picks finish the 2013 regular season 162-93-1 (.635) straight up; 113-134-9 (.457) ATS. It was our first losing slate ATS in our five-year history of picking every game, every week straight up and ATS.

 

The King of Props went 1-1, offering only two picks this week with every game played on Sunday – Carolina’s DeAngelo Williams rushed for only 33 yards, well short of the 73 needed, as the Panthers struggled to put away the lowly Falcons.

But San Diego standout rookie receiver Keenan Allen pulled in his fifth catch, in overtime, to hand the King of Props a closer-than-expected win with his final regular-season play.

The King of Props suffered just two losing weeks in 17 opportunities this year (1-3 in both Week 6 and Week 8) and did not suffer a single losing Sunday all season.

The King of Props closed the season with a scorching 44-23-1 (.657) performance in 2013, and over the second half of the year produced an electrifying record of 24-9 (.727), since Week 9.

 

The Intelligence Index went 2-0 straight up and 1-1 against the spread – The Titans (-7) fell just shy of making it a 2-0 week ATS with a 16-10 win over the lowly Texans, who end the year the Dumbest Team in Football.

The record-setting and smart Broncos (-12.5) easily handled business with a 34-14 win on the road against the dumb Raiders.

The Intelligence Index did not suffer a losing record straight up all season and produced just three losing performances ATS in 16 opportunities this year (no picks in Week 1).

The indicator obviously made money in its first season, but we believe can be refined to become an even greater success in the future.

Picking straight up winners in almost 90 percent of NFL games is a huge accomplishment, as any death-pool contestant can attest; and our 39 “smart” teams typically won big, doubling the point spread on average.

We learned this that picks that did struggle were typically road teams; and the small handful of chances we took with teams or ordinary intelligence that had been on a “smart” streak (such as Tennessee -7 in Week 17) tended to backfire.

All in all, a great debut for the indicator and still with room for improvement.

The Intelligence Index closed its debut season of “Mental Mismatches” with a record of 34-5 (.872) straight up; 23-14-2 (.622) ATS.

 

The CHFF Trifecta went 2-1 in Week 17 to close the regular season on a high note – The Saints (-12) easily dispatched for the Buccaneers in the Superdome, 42-17, where they’ve been dominant all year.

The Patriots (-7.5) continued their historic dominance of the Bills with a 34-20 victory. New England is now and incredible 25-2 against Buffalo dating back to 2000, winning by an average of two TDs per game.

However, what looked like a sure low-scoring Bills-Patriots game in the rain ended with a 28-point explosion in the fourth quarter, handing the Trifecta (Under 46) its only loss of the week.  

The CHFF Trifecta closed out the 2013 season 21-27-3 (.438) but still has 11 postseason games to try to push itself into winning territory.

 

Week 17 and Year-to-Date Results

King of Props Week 1 – 4-0

King of Props Week 2 – 2-2

King of Props Week 3 – 3-1

King of Props Week 4 – 2-2

King of Props Week 5 – 4-0

King of Props Week 6 – 1-3

King of Props Week 7 – 2-2

King of Props Week 8 – 1-3

King of Props Week 9 – 3-1

King of Props Week 10 – 3-1

King of Props Week 11 – 2-2

King of Props Week 12 – 4-0

King of Props Week 13 – 3-1

King of Props Week 14 – 4-0

King of Props Week 15 – 2-2

King of Props Week 16 – 2-1

King of Props Week 17 – 1-1

King of Props pre-season picks – 1-1-1

Final 2013 regular season – 44-23-1 (.657)

 

Real and Spectacular picks Week 1 – 11-5 straight up; 5-10-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular picks Week 2 – 13-3 straight up; 6-9-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular picks Week 3 – 9-7 straight up; 7-8-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular picks Week 4 – 8-7 straight up; 5-10 ATS

Real and Spectacular picks Week 5 – 8-6 straight up; 3-11 ATS

Real and Spectacular picks Week 6 – 9-6 straight up; 7-8 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 7 – 10-5 straight up; 5-10 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 8 – 10-3 straight up; 6-7 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 9 – 8-5 straight up; 6-7 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 10 – 4-10 straight up; 3-10-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 11 – 12-3 straight up; 7-5-3 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 12 – 6-7-1 straight up; 8-5-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 13 – 9-7 straight up; 5-11 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 14 – 13-3 straight up; 9-7 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 15 – 8-8 straight up; 8-7-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 16 – 11-5 straight up; 11-5 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 17 – 13-3 straight up; 12-4 ATS

Final 2013 regular season – 162-93-1 (.635) straight up; 113-134-9 (.457) ATS

 

Intelligence Index Week 2 – 1-0 straight up; 1-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 3 – 3-0 straight up; 3-0 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 4 – 3-0 straight up; 3-0 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 5 – 1-0 straight up; 1-0 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 6 – 2-1 straight up; 1-2 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 7 – 1-1 straight up; 0-2 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 8 – 3-0 straight up; 2-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 9 – 2-1 straight up; 1-2 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 10 – 2-1 straight up; 1-1-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 11 – 2-0 straight up; 1-0-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 12 – 3-0 straight up; 3-0 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 13 – 2-0 straight up; 1-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 14 – 3-0 straight up; 2-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 15 – 2-1 straight up; 1-2 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 16 – 2-0 straight up; 1-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 17 – 2-0 straight up; 1-1 ATS

Final 2013 regular season – 34-5 (.872) straight up; 23-14-2 (.622) ATS

 

CHFF Trifecta Week 1 – 0-3

CHFF Trifecta Week 2 – 2-0-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 3 – 0-2-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 4 – 1-2

CHFF Trifecta Week 5 – 1-2

CHFF Trifecta Week 6 – 0-3

CHFF Trifecta Week 7 – 2-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 8 – 2-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 9 – 1-2

CHFF Trifecta Week 10 – 2-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 11 – 3-0

CHFF Trifecta Week 12 – 1-2

CHFF Trifecta Week 13 – 2-0-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 14 – 1-2

CHFF Trifecta Week 15 – 1-2

CHFF Trifecta Week 16 – 0-3

CHFF Trifecta Week 17 – 2-1

Final 2013 regular season – 21-27-3 (.438)

 

Week 17 Real and Spectacular Picks

Baltimore at Cincinnati (-6.5)

CHFF Pick: Cincinnati 20, Baltimore 17

Final Score: Cincinnati 34, Baltimore 17

CHFF Result: straight up win (1-0); ATS loss (0-1)

 

Buffalo at New England (-7.5)

CHFF Pick: New England 28, Buffalo 17

Final Score: New England 34, Buffalo 20

CHFF Result: straight up win (2-0); ATS win (1-1)

 

Carolina (-6) at Atlanta

CHFF Pick: Carolina 31, Atlanta 20

Final Score: Carolina 21, Atlanta 20

CHFF Result: straight up win (3-0); ATS loss (1-2)

 

Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-7)

CHFF Pick: Pittsburgh 27, Cleveland 17

Final Score: Pittsburgh 20, Cleveland 7

CHFF Result: straight up win (4-0); ATS win (2-2)

 

Detroit at Minnesota (-3)

CHFF Pick: Detroit 27, Minnesota 24

Final Score: Minnesota 14, Detroit 13

CHFF Result: straight up loss (4-1); ATS win (3-2)

 

Green Bay (-2.5) at Chicago

CHFF Pick: Green Bay 28, Chicago 23

Final Score: Green Bay 33, Chicago 28

CHFF Result: straight up win (5-1); ATS win (4-2)

 

Houston at Tennessee (-7)

CHFF Pick: Tennessee 24, Houston 21

Final Score: Tennessee 16, Houston 10

CHFF Result: straight up win (6-1); ATS win (5-2)

 

Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-11.5)

CHFF Pick: Indianapolis 28, Jacksonville 14

Final Score: Indianapolis 30, Jacksonville 10

CHFF Result: straight up win (7-1); ATS win (6-2)

 

N.Y. Jets at Miami (-6.5)

CHFF Pick: Miami 21, N.Y. Jets 17

Final Score: N.Y. Jets 20, Miami 7

CHFF Result: straight up loss (7-2); ATS win (7-2)

 

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-12.5)

CHFF Pick: New Orleans 30, Tampa Bay 10

Final Score: New Orleans 42, Tampa Bay 17

CHFF Result: straight up win (8-2); ATS win (8-2)

 

Washington at N.Y. Giants (-3.5)

CHFF Pick: N.Y. Giants 27, Washington 20

Final Score: N.Y. Giants 20, Washington 6

CHFF Result: straight up win (9-2); ATS win (9-2)

 

Denver (-12) at Oakland

CHFF Pick: Denver 38, Oakland 21

Final Score: Denver 34, Oakland 14

CHFF Result: straight up win (10-2); ATS win (10-2)

 

Kansas City at San Diego (-9.5)

CHFF Pick: San Diego 24, Kansas City 23

Final Score: San Diego 27, Kansas City 24

CHFF Result: straight up win (11-2); ATS win (11-2)

 

San Francisco at Arizona (pick ‘em)

CHFF Pick: Arizona 21, San Francisco 20

Final Score: San Francisco 23, Arizona 20

CHFF Result: straight up loss (11-3); ATS loss (11-3)

 

St. Louis at Seattle (-11)

CHFF Pick: Seattle 27, St. Louis 13

Final Score: Seattle 27, St. Louis 9

CHFF Result: straight up win (12-3); ATS win (12-3)

 

Philadelphia (-6.5) at Dallas

CHFF Pick: Philadelphia 30, Dallas 21

Final Score: Philadelphia 24, Dallas 22

CHFF Result: straight up win (13-3); ATS loss (12-4)


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