Week 16 in Review: History Of Late-Season Success

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Dec 26, 2013



Our four-year run of winning picks was always capped by a big late-season surge that carried us, and CHFF Insiders, right through to the Super Bowl.

We continued that trend in Week 16, on the heels of an otherwise under-performing season for our Real and Spectacular Picks, which will produce their first losing record ATS in our five-year history of picking every game, every week.

An outright win by the road dog Patriots in Baltimore topped our list of successful Week 16 picks.

We went 11-5 both straight up and against the spread in the penultimate week of the 2013 regular season. It was our best performance of the season. Too little too late to produce a winning season.

But it’s also part of a long-term trend of big-money-making success late in the season. Our Real and Spectacular picks are:

  • 90-53 (.629) ATS in Weeks 16 and 17 (2009-present)
  • 53-26 (.671) ATS in Weeks 16 and 17 (2011-present)
  • 69-32 (.683) ATS Week 16 through Super Bowl (2011-present)
  • 29-15 (.659) ATS all time in the postseason (2009-12)
  • 15-7 (.682) ATS last two postseasons

Here's our weekly review of all four of our portfolios of picks.

Week 16 Results

Our Real and Spectacular Picks went 11-5 straight up and 11-5 ATS – Continuing our history of late-season success. The only real swings and misses were Miami (-3) vs. Buffalo (a 19-0 Bills win) and Arizona’s huge 17-10 upset in Seattle, the first home loss by the Seahawks since 2011.  

Our Real and Spectacular Picks are now 148-90-1 (.622) straight up; 101-129-9 (.439) ATS

The King of Props went 2-1 with each game a razor-thin margin – He split his Sunday games, with Jets receiver Santonio Holmes (over 2.5 catches) dropping a pair of passes that would have pushed him into the win column; while Dallas running back DeMarco Murray (over 110.5 yards rushing, receiving) needed to haul in his game-clinching 10-yard TD reception to total 111 yards on the day.

And on Monday night, Falcons receiver Harry Douglass (over 4.5 catches) hauled in his fifth catch in the final frantic moments of the fourth quarter, during what looked like it would be Atlanta’s game-tying or game-winning drive.

The King of Props remains a scorching 43-22-1 (.662) in 2013 and over the second half of the year has been an electrifying 23-8 (.742), since Week 9.

The Intelligence Index went 2-0 straight up and 1-1 against the spread – The Broncos (-10.5) won big over the Texans (37-13), while Dallas (-3) held on for a thrilling 24-23 victory.

The Intelligence Index has not suffered a losing record straight up all season and has produced just three losing performances ATS in 15 opportunities this year (no picks in Week 1).

The Intelligence Index remains a brilliant 32-5 (.865) straight up and 22-13-2 (.629) ATS.

The CHFF Trifecta went 0-3 in Week 16, its first winless slate since Week 6 – The Cowboys (-3) needed a dramatic late touchdown to pull out a 24-23 victory.

The Buccaneers and Rams (Over 43) combined for just 447 yards in a 23-13 St. Louis victory. And the Raiders (+10) gave a game defense effort against the statistically proficient Chargers offense, but lost 26-13.

The CHFF Trifecta is now 19-26-3 (.422) and has five weeks (15 picks) through the Super Bowl to cut its losses.

 

Week 16 and Year-to-Date Results

King of Props Week 1 – 4-0

King of Props Week 2 – 2-2

King of Props Week 3 – 3-1

King of Props Week 4 – 2-2

King of Props Week 5 – 4-0

King of Props Week 6 – 1-3

King of Props Week 7 – 2-2

King of Props Week 8 – 1-3

King of Props Week 9 – 3-1

King of Props Week 10 – 3-1

King of Props Week 11 – 2-2

King of Props Week 12 – 4-0

King of Props Week 13 – 3-1

King of Props Week 14 – 4-0

King of Props Week 15 – 2-2

King of Props Week 16 – 2-1

King of Props pre-season picks – 1-1-1

Year to Date – 43-22-1 (.662)

 

Real and Spectacular picks Week 1 – 11-5 straight up; 5-10-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular picks Week 2 – 13-3 straight up; 6-9-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular picks Week 3 – 9-7 straight up; 7-8-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular picks Week 4 – 8-7 straight up; 5-10 ATS

Real and Spectacular picks Week 5 – 8-6 straight up; 3-11 ATS

Real and Spectacular picks Week 6 – 9-6 straight up; 7-8 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 7 – 10-5 straight up; 5-10 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 8 – 10-3 straight up; 6-7 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 9 – 8-5 straight up; 6-7 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 10 – 4-10 straight up; 3-10-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 11 – 12-3 straight up; 7-5-3 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 12 – 6-7-1 straight up; 8-5-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 13 – 9-7 straight up; 5-11 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 14 – 13-3 straight up; 9-7 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 15 – 8-8 straight up; 8-7-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 16 – 11-5 straight up; 11-5 ATS

Year to Date: 149-90-1 (.623) straight up; 101-130-9 (.437) ATS

 

Intelligence Index Week 2 – 1-0 straight up; 1-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 3 – 3-0 straight up; 3-0 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 4 – 3-0 straight up; 3-0 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 5 – 1-0 straight up; 1-0 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 6 – 2-1 straight up; 1-2 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 7 – 1-1 straight up; 0-2 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 8 – 3-0 straight up; 2-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 9 – 2-1 straight up; 1-2 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 10 – 2-1 straight up; 1-1-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 11 – 2-0 straight up; 1-0-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 12 – 3-0 straight up; 3-0 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 13 – 2-0 straight up; 1-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 14 – 3-0 straight up; 2-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 15 – 2-1 straight up; 1-2 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 16 – 2-0 straight up; 1-1 ATS

Year to Date: 32-5 (.865) straight up; 22-13-2 (.629) ATS

 

CHFF Trifecta Week 1 – 0-3

CHFF Trifecta Week 2 – 2-0-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 3 – 0-2-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 4 – 1-2

CHFF Trifecta Week 5 – 1-2

CHFF Trifecta Week 6 – 0-3

CHFF Trifecta Week 7 – 2-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 8 – 2-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 9 – 1-2

CHFF Trifecta Week 10 – 2-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 11 – 3-0

CHFF Trifecta Week 12 – 1-2

CHFF Trifecta Week 13 – 2-0-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 14 – 1-2

CHFF Trifecta Week 15 – 1-2

CHFF Trifecta Week 16 – 0-3

Year to Date – 19-26-3 (.422)

 

Week 16 Real and Spectacular Picks

Cleveland at N.Y. Jets (-2)

CHFF Pick: N.Y. Jets 24, Cleveland 19

Final Score: N.Y. Jets 24, Cleveland 13

CHFF Result: straight up win (1-0); ATS win (1-0)

 

Dallas (-3) at Washington

CHFF Pick: Dallas 30, Washington 24

Final Score: Dallas 24, Washington 23

CHFF Result: straight up win (2-0); ATS loss (1-1)

 

Denver (-10.5) at Houston

CHFF Pick: Denver 33, Houston 20

Final Score: Denver 37, Houston 13

CHFF Result: straight up win (3-0); ATS win (2-1)

 

Indianapolis at Kansas City (-6.5)

CHFF Pick: Kansas City 24, Indianapolis 20

Final Score: Indianapolis 23, Kansas City 7

CHFF Result: straight up loss (3-1); ATS win (3-1)

 

Miami (-3) at Buffalo

CHFF Pick: Miami 24, Buffalo 20

Final Score: Buffalo 19, Miami 0

 CHFF Result: straight up loss (3-2); ATS loss (3-2)

 

Minnesota at Cincinnati (-7)

CHFF Pick: Cincinnati 27, Minnesota 23,

Final Score: Cincinnati 42, Minnesota 14

CHFF Result: straight up win (4-2); ATS loss (3-3)

 

New Orleans at Carolina (-3)

CHFF Pick: Carolina 23, New Orleans 17

Final Score: Carolina 17, New Orleans 13

CHFF Result: straight up win (5-2); ATS win (4-3)

 

Tampa Bay at St. Louis (-5.5)

CHFF Pick: St. Louis 27, Tampa Bay 16

Final Score: St. Louis 23, Tampa Bay 13

CHFF Result: straight up win (6-2); ATS win (5-3)

 

Tennessee (-5.5) at Jacksonville

CHFF Pick: Tennessee 24, Jacksonville 23

Final Score: Tennessee 20, Jacksonville 16

CHFF Result: straight up win (7-2); ATS win (6-3)

 

Arizona at Seattle (-10.5)

CHFF Pick: Seattle 31, Arizona 17

Final Score: Arizona 17, Seattle 10

CHFF Result: straight up loss (7-3); ATS loss (6-4)

 

N.Y. Giants at Detroit (-9)

CHFF Pick: Detroit 28, N.Y. Giants 21

Final Score: N.Y. Giants 23, Detroit 20

CHFF Result: straight up loss (7-4); ATS win (7-4)

 

Oakland at San Diego (-10)

CHFF Pick: San Diego 30, Oakland 23

Final Score: San Diego 26, Oakland 13

CHFF Result: straight up win (8-4); ATS loss (7-5)

 

Pittsburgh at Green Bay (-2.5)

CHFF Pick: Green Bay 23, Pittsburgh 21

Final Score: Pittsburgh 38, Green Bay 31

CHFF Result: straight up loss (8-5); ATS win (8-5)

 

New England at Baltimore (-2.5)

CHFF Pick: New England 24, Baltimore 23

Final Score: New England 41, Baltimore 7

CHFF Result: straight up win (9-5); ATS win (9-5)

 

Chicago at Philadelphia (-3)

CHFF Pick: Philadelphia 33, Chicago 28

Final Score: Philadelphia 54, Chicago 11

CHFF Result: straight up win (10-5); ATS win (10-5)

 

Atlanta at San Francisco (-13)

CHFF Pick: San Francisco 27, Atlanta 17

Final Score: San Francisco 34, Atlanta 24

CHFF Result: straight up win (11-5); ATS win (11-5)


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