Week 14 Rusher Rating: Focus on Mendenhall

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Dec 13, 2011

By Ken Crippen
Pro Football Researchers Association

Maurice Jones-Drew’s spectacular performance was only good enough for second place in this week’ Rusher Rating. Brandon Jacobs of the New York Giants led all Week 14 rushers with a 134.72 Rusher Rating. Jones-Drew had a 122.83 Rusher Rating. Shonn Greene, Marshawn Lynch and Steven Jackson round out the top five.

Here are the top 10 rushers of week 14 with a minimum of 15 attempts, based on Rusher Rating:

Player	Attempts	Yards	Yards per Attempt	TD	Fumbles	Rusher Rating
Brandon Jacobs – NYG	19	101	5.32	2	0	134.72
Maurice Jones-Drew – JAX	27	85	3.15	2	0	122.83
Shonn Greene – NYJ	24	129	5.38	1	0	118.84
Marshawn Lynch – SEA	23	115	5.00	1	0	118.38
Steven Jackson –STL	20	63	3.15	1	0	113.95
LeSean McCoy – PHI	27	38	1.41	2	0	113.28
Michael Bush – OAK	23	78	3.39	1	0	109.55
LeGarrette Blount – TB	18	74	4.11	1	1	97.56
Ray Rice – BAL	26	103	3.96	1	1	89.90
Marion Barber – CHI	27	108	4.00	1	1	89.54

For the season, McCoy still holds a commanding lead with a 130.13 Rusher Rating. Ray Rice is a distant second with 110.33 and Marshawn Lynch has a 105.15 Rusher Rating for third place.

Now, the top 10 rushers of the season with a minimum of 190 attempts, based on Rusher Rating:

Player	Attempts	Yards	Yards per Attempt	TD	Fumbles	Rusher Rating
LeSean McCoy – PHI	242	1,172	4.84	14	0	130.13
Ray Rice – BAL	234	1,029	4.40	10	2	110.33
Marshawn Lynch – SEA	225	969	4.31	9	3	105.15
Chris Wells – ARI	216	943	4.37	9	4	104.46
Michael Bush – OAK	196	764	3.90	7	1	103.08
Arian Foster – HOU	239	957	4.00	8	2	100.13
Shonn Greene – NYJ	207	868	4.19	6	1	98.92
Michael Turner – ATL	254	1,068	4.20	8	3	97.85
Steven Jackson – STL	202	895	4.43	5	1	96.45
Frank Gore – SF	234	1,054	4.50	6	2	95.92

Real Running Back Rating

Looking at the season leaders (based on Rusher Rating) through Week 14 of the NFL regular season (minimum 190 attempts) we have the following (Listed by Real Running Back Rating):

Player	Receptions	Receiving Yards	Receiving TD	Rusher Rating	Real RB Rating	Diff.
LeSean McCoy – PHI	45	310	3	130.13	112.73	-17.57
Michael Bush – OAK	26	319	1	103.08	94.30	-8.78
Arian Foster – HOU	45	543	2	100.13	93.62	-6.51
Ray Rice – BAL	62	593	2	110.33	92.71	-17.62
Marshawn Lynch – SEA	22	178	1	105.15	92.08	-13.07
Steven Jackson – STL	30	222	1	96.45	80.00	-16.45
Michael Turner – ATL	11	128	0	97.85	76.09	-21.76
Shonn Greene – NYJ	26	191	0	98.92	70.39	-28.53
Chris Wells – ARI	8	34	0	104.46	69.16	-35.30
Frank Gore – SF	16	101	0	95.92	67.06	-28.86

McCoy again leads in Real Running Back Rating. His 45 receptions for 310 yards and three scores gives him a Real Running Back Rating of 112.73. That gives him a comfortable lead over Michael Bush, who has a Real Running Back Rating of 94.30.

Rusher Rating Differential

San Francisco has yet to allow a rushing touchdown this season. As a result, they still hold the top spot in Rusher Rating Differential with 38.14. Baltimore holds second place with 23.69. The Carolina Panthers are in third place with 22.03, due to their league-leading Offensive Rusher Rating of 125.93. The Colts, Buccaneers, Chiefs, Jaguars and Browns are the bottom five.

Here are all 32 teams ranked, based on Rusher Rating Differential, for the season:

Team	Rushing Attempts	Offensive Rusher Rating	Defensive Rushing Attempts	Defensive Rusher Rating	Rusher Rating Differential
San Francisco 49ers	391	93.49	284	55.35	38.14
Baltimore Ravens	376	97.74	333	74.05	23.69
Carolina Panthers	356	125.93	372	103.90	22.03
Minnesota Vikings	365	110.76	352	91.69	19.07
Houston Texans	460	97.69	290	83.55	14.14
New Orleans Saints	335	110.10	295	97.87	12.23
Miami Dolphins	377	85.66	335	73.62	12.04
Tennessee Titans	310	89.59	369	78.94	10.65
New England Patriots	342	101.53	326	91.70	9.83
San Diego Chargers	351	96.68	387	88.71	7.97
Philadelphia Eagles	372	107.74	339	99.84	7.90
Chicago Bears	358	95.02	303	87.54	7.48
New York Jets	364	96.81	366	90.00	6.81
Pittsburgh Steelers	351	95.84	318	89.60	6.24
Seattle Seahawks	351	91.19	371	87.90	3.29
Atlanta Falcons	366	94.60	316	91.70	2.90
Denver Broncos	433	84.98	394	83.77	1.21
New York Giants	336	99.26	354	98.64	0.62
Green Bay Packers	332	98.93	287	98.33	0.60
Cincinnati Bengals	363	88.20	351	93.58	-5.38
Detroit Lions	299	90.64	347	96.63	-5.99
Oakland Raiders	395	102.70	350	112.53	-9.83
Washington Redskins	312	87.80	363	97.75	-9.95
St. Louis Rams	324	80.92	411	90.88	-9.96
Arizona Cardinals	316	93.60	378	103.81	-10.21
Buffalo Bills	324	90.00	365	105.23	-15.23
Dallas Cowboys	332	76.91	315	94.71	-17.80
Indianapolis Colts	294	87.03	455	105.93	-18.90
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	300	90.52	392	109.77	-19.25
Kansas City Chiefs	388	74.80	418	94.69	-19.89
Jacksonville Jaguars	407	73.52	353	97.02	-23.50
Cleveland Browns	346	65.96	437	93.13	-27.17

Situational Statistics

For the rest of the season, we will focus on a specific running back and their situational statistics. This week, we look at Rashard Mendenhall of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Rusher Rating	Attempts	Yards	Yards per Attempt	TD	Fumbles	Rusher Rating
Overall	187	710	3.80	8	1	108.61

Real Running Back Rating	Receptions	Receiving Yards	Receiving TD	Rusher Rating	Real RB Rating	Diff.
Overall	13	87	0	108.61	75.18	-33.43

His 108.61 Rusher Rating would put him in the top ten running backs this season, but he falls slightly short of the minimum number of carries used for our analysis. His Real Running Back Rating also compares favorably to the top ten backs in the league. With a few more carries, we could see him on the leader board before the season ends.

Here is how he breaks down by game:

Season	Attempts	Yards	Yards per Attempt	TD	Fumbles	Rusher Rating
@ Baltimore Ravens	12	45	3.75	0	1	33.54
SeattleSeahawks	19	66	3.47	1	0	118.04
@ Indianapolis Colts	18	37	2.06	0	0	64.06
@ Houston Texans	9	25	2.78	1	0	120.80
JacksonvilleJaguars	23	146	6.35	1	0	125.77
@ Arizona Cardinals	13	32	2.46	0	0	66.28
New EnglandPatriots	13	70	5.38	0	0	82.32
BaltimoreRavens	13	52	4.00	1	0	127.50
@ Cincinnati Bengals	16	44	2.75	2	0	120.64
@ Kansas City Chiefs	17	57	3.35	0	0	71.18
CincinnatiBengals	16	60	3.75	2	0	126.13
ClevelandBrowns	18	76	4.22	0	0	75.94

Friends of CHFF predicted that Mendenhall would have a stellar game against the Browns, due to the fact that Ray Rice chalked up a 29 carry for 204 yard performance the previous week (Rusher Rating of 121.64). However, Mendenhall only had 18 carries for 78 yards for a Rusher Rating of 75.94.

	Attempts	Yards	Yards per Attempt	TD	Fumbles	Rusher Rating
Running Lane
Left Sideline	5	-10	-2.00	0	0	41.80
Left Side	28	111	3.96	1	0	105.88
Middle	59	234	3.97	0	1	66.44
Right Side	78	290	3.72	4	0	118.19
Right Sideline	17	85	5.00	3	0	132.99

Attempts
1 through 10	119	518	4.35	6	1	116.90
11 through 20	65	182	2.80	2	0	95.10
21 through 30	3	10	3.33	0	0	71.07

Field Position
Own 1-20	36	157	4.36	0	0	76.71
Own 21-50	71	354	4.99	0	1	73.41
Opponent 49-20	45	119	2.64	0	0	67.29
Redzone	35	80	2.29	8	0	118.10

Half
1st	85	367	4.32	5	0	128.10
2nd	102	343	3.36	3	1	92.36

Quarter
1st	54	191	3.54	3	0	120.95
2nd	31	176	5.68	2	0	136.71
3rd	65	269	4.14	2	1	95.14
4th	37	74	2.00	1	0	87.48

Looking at three stats in particular: Number of Attempts, half and quarter, it shows that Mendenhall declines as the game progresses. With a 116.90 Rusher Rating on the first ten carries, he drops to 95.10 on the next ten carries and bottoms out at 71.07 on carries 21 through 30. He has a 128.10 Rusher Rating in the first half, but falls to 92.36 in the second half. A 92.36 is not bad, but it is still a sharp decline from his first half numbers. When we break down the second half into quarters, his decline becomes more apparent. He has a 95.14 Rusher Rating in the third quarter, but falls to 87.48 in the fourth quarter.

Point Differential	Attempts	Yards	Yards per Attempt	TD	Fumbles	Rusher Rating
When Winning	104	431	4.14	2	0	92.40
When Losing	46	161	3.50	2	1	99.76
When Tied	37	118	3.19	4	0	123.05

Winning by 15-21 Points	22	142	6.45	0	0	88.19
Winning by 1-7 Points	67	248	3.70	2	0	99.29
Losing by 1-7 Points	29	103	3.55	0	0	72.27
Losing by 15-21 Points	14	51	3.64	2	1	91.42

Let’s look at how he performs based on margins of victory:

Margin of Victory	Attempts	Yards	Yards per Attempt	TD	Fumbles	Rusher Rating
Wins	153	588	3.84	6	0	108.29
Losses	34	122	3.59	2	1	110.05

Win by 1-7 Points	96	361	3.76	5	0	119.13
Win by 8-14 Points	44	178	4.05	0	0	74.98
Win by 15+ Points	47	171	3.64	3	1	115.35

Finally, let’s break down Mendenhall’s rushing by down and distance:

Down and Distance	Attempts	Yards	Yards per Attempt	TD	Fumbles	Rusher Rating
1^st Down
To Go: 1-2 Yards	7	0	0.00	2	0	105.56
To Go: 3-7 Yards	8	16	2.00	1	0	116.63
To Go: 8-10 Yards	102	437	4.28	1	1	80.21
To Go: 11+ Yards	4	12	3.00	0	0	69.24
2^nd Down
To Go: 1-2 Yards	9	40	4.44	1	0	129.94
To Go: 3-7 Yards	27	85	3.15	3	0	122.83
To Go: 8-10 Yards	21	91	4.33	0	0	76.55
To Go: 11+ Yards	3	17	5.67	0	0	83.87
3^rd Down
To Go: 1-2 Yards	4	12	3.00	0	0	69.24
4^th Down
To Go: 1-2 Yards	2	0	0.00	0	0	52.78

He performs at a higher level in short to mid-range yardage situations. When there are seven or fewer yards to go for a first down, he has a Rusher Rating of 120.03. Compare that to his Rusher Rating of 79.36 when the Steelers have eight or more yards to go to get a first down. He also has a better Rusher Rating on first and second down than he does on third or fourth down.

How the Rusher Rating is Calculated

Here is how each component is calculated:

Average Yards Gained per Attempt (YD) = [Total Yards/(4.05 * Rushing Attempts)]

Percentage of TDs per Carry (TD) = [(39.5*Touchdowns)/Rushing Attempts]

Percentage of Fumbles per Carry (F) = [2.375-((21.5*Fumbles)/Rushing Attempts)]

Adding these components together and adjusting to a scale of 158.3 (the same as the NFL Passer Rating System) yields:

Rusher Rating = [(YD) + (TD) + (F)] * (100/4.5)

How the Real Running Back Rating is Calculated

Now, we look at the Real Running Back Rating. Here are the updated equations with the receiving components:

Average Yards Gained per Attempt (YD) = [Total Yards/(4.05 * Rushing Attempts)]

Percentage of TDs per Carry (RUSHTD) = [(39.5*Touchdowns)/Rushing Attempts]

Average Yards Gained per Reception (REC) = [Receiving Yards/(9*Receptions)]

Percentage of TDs per Reception (RECTD) = [(27.5*Touchdowns)/Receptions]

Percentage of Fumbles per Touch (F) = [2.375-((21.5*Fumbles)/(Rushes + Receptions))]

Adding these components together and adjusting to a scale of 158.3 yields:

Rusher Rating = [(YD) + (RUSHTD) + (REC) + (RECTD) + (F)] * (100/7.5)

Ken Crippen is the executive director of the Professional Football Researchers Association, a non-profit educational organization dedicated to preserving football history.You can follow him on Twitter: @KenCrippen.

By Ken Crippen

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