Week 12 in Review: A Holiday Feast of Winning Picks
Cold, Hard Football Facts Insider’s four portfolios of picks continue to gain momentum here in the soft, well-fed underbelly of the season – a period we know, and we would love if we had emotions, as the Pigskin High Holidays.
It’s been a festive couple weeks for our picks, led by the CHFF Intelligence Index, which is dabbling with 70 percent against the spread, and closely followed by the King of Props, who has recovered in grand fashion after a brief slump from Weeks 6 to 8. His Royal Majesty also has a shot at 70 percent with his player props.
We knew the King of Props was money at the start of the year.
The Intelligence Index was the wildcard, but one in which we put great faith based upon our off-season research.
The Quality Stats that excite us most are those that meet a couple criteria: they have a high Correlation to Victory, and they go against the grain of conventional wisdom and/or otherwise examine success factors the pigskin pundits and public overlook.
The Intelligence Index is a winner on all counts. It has a high Correlation to Victory, as we highlight each week. And it’s an examination of so-called “situational football” – something fans and analysts talk about, but have no real way to quantify statistically.
The Intelligence Index gives us a way to quantify situational football, and does it in a very easy-to-understand format.
It allows us to easily distinguish the smart teams that excel in situational football from the dumb teams that habitually struggle in situational football.
More importantly for football fans, it allows you a way to consistently beat the market with money-making “Mental Mismatches.” Smart teams not only consistently beat dumb teams straight up, they consistently blow them out, and cover against the spread at an extraordinarily high clip.
The reason is simple: the public may talk about situational football. But they largely ignore a team's mental capabilities and look only at a team's physical potential when they make their bets. The disparity there, between a team's mental capabilities and physical capabilities, gives us a window to explot that few others even consider.
Here’s a look at our Week 12 picks at CHFF Insider:
The King of Props went a perfect 4-0 – a late catch by Washington’s Santana Moss Monday night, right after having a reception called back because of penalty, launched the King of Props’ Monday play into the win column and concluded his third perfect week in 12 opportunities this year.
The King of Props is now a scorching 32-17 (.653) in 2013.
The Intelligence Index went 3-0 both straight up and ATS – and not one of our Week 12 Mental Mismatches was ever in doubt: the Ravens (-3.5) easily beat the Jets, 19-3; the Steelers (+2.5) handled the Browns, 27-11; and the 49ers (-5.5) rolled past the Redskins, 27-6.
The Intelligence Index is now a brilliant 23-4 (.852) straight up and 17-8-2 (.680) ATS. It has not suffered a loss of any kind over the past two weeks.
Our Real and Spectacular Picks went 8-5-1 ATS – our second straight winning week ATS after what is still a solidly underperforming season. The stretch run is our money-making time of year, with Real and Spectacular late-season results for CHFF Insiders dating back to 2009.
The CHFF Trifecta went 1-2 playing three over-unders this week – It was our only losing portfolio of picks in Week 12, and comes after a strong 10-5 surge by the Trifecta.
Overall, the King of Props and Intelligence Index look well positioned to produce winning slates for 2013 with five weeks to play, barring a complete collapse.
The CHFF Trifecta is rapidly making up for a poor start and right now is sitting on the cusp of turning in a money-making season with plenty of time to go.
Our Real and Spectacular Picks need a truly spectacular five-week run to close out the season with a winning record against the spread for a fifth straight year. It’s a very long shot at this point.
But this is exactly the time of year that we’ve printed money makers for CHFF Insiders, as we documented before the start of the season.
We’ve gone .500 or better ATS in 20 of 24 weeks over the past four seasons from Week 12 through Week 17.
We’ve gone an incredible 58-27 (.671) ATS from Week 16 through the Super Bowl over the past two seasons, picking the toughest games of the year.
We've gone 15-7 (.682) ATS over the past two postseasons. Best teams. Best players. Toughest games. We analyze every single one of them in great detail and win at a 2-to-1 win clip.
Week 12 and Year-to-Date Results
King of Props Week 1 – 4-0
King of Props Week 2 – 2-2
King of Props Week 3 – 3-1
King of Props Week 4 – 2-2
King of Props Week 5 – 4-0
King of Props Week 6 – 1-3
King of Props Week 7 – 2-2
King of Props Week 8 – 1-3
King of Props Week 9 – 3-1
King of Props Week 10 – 3-1
King of Props Week 11 – 2-2
King of Props Week 12 – 4-0
King of Props pre-season picks – 1-0
Year to Date – 32-17 (.653)
Real and Spectacular picks Week 1 – 11-5 straight up; 5-10-1 ATS
Real and Spectacular picks Week 2 – 13-3 straight up; 6-9-1 ATS
Real and Spectacular picks Week 3 – 9-7 straight up; 7-8-1 ATS
Real and Spectacular picks Week 4 – 8-7 straight up; 5-10 ATS
Real and Spectacular picks Week 5 – 8-6 straight up; 3-11 ATS
Real and Spectacular picks Week 6 – 9-6 straight up; 7-8 ATS
Real and Spectacular Picks Week 7 – 9-5 straight up; 5-9 ATS
Real and Spectacular Picks Week 8 – 10-3 straight up; 6-7 ATS
Real and Spectacular Picks Week 9 – 8-5 straight up; 6-7 ATS
Real and Spectacular Picks Week 10 – 4-10 straight up; 3-10-1 ATS
Real and Spectacular Picks Week 11 – 12-3 straight up; 7-5-3 ATS
Real and Spectacular Picks Week 12 – 6-7-1 straight up; 8-5-1 ATS
Year to Date: 107-67-1 (.615) straight up; 68-99-8 (.407) ATS
Intelligence Index Week 2 – 1-0 straight up; 1-1 ATS
Intelligence Index Week 3 – 3-0 straight up; 3-0 ATS
Intelligence Index Week 4 – 3-0 straight up; 3-0 ATS
Intelligence Index Week 5 – 1-0 straight up; 1-0 ATS
Intelligence Index Week 6 – 2-1 straight up; 1-2 ATS
Intelligence Index Week 7 – 1-1 straight up; 0-2 ATS
Intelligence Index Week 8 – 3-0 straight up; 2-1 ATS
Intelligence Index Week 9 – 2-1 straight up; 1-2 ATS
Intelligence Index Week 10 – 2-1 straight up; 1-1-1 ATS
Intelligence Index Week 11 – 2-0 straight up; 1-0-1 ATS
Intelligence Index Week 12 – 3-0 straight up; 3-0 ATS
Year to Date: 23-4 (.852) straight up; 17-8-2 (.680) ATS
CHFF Trifecta Week 1 – 0-3
CHFF Trifecta Week 2 – 2-0-1
CHFF Trifecta Week 3 – 0-2-1
CHFF Trifecta Week 4 – 1-2
CHFF Trifecta Week 5 – 1-2
CHFF Trifecta Week 6 – 0-3
CHFF Trifecta Week 7 – 2-1
CHFF Trifecta Week 8 – 2-1
CHFF Trifecta Week 9 – 1-2
CHFF Trifecta Week 10 – 2-1
CHFF Trifecta Week 11 – 3-0
CHFF Trifecta Week 12 – 1-2
Year to Date – 15-19-2 (.441)
Week 12 Real and Spectacular Picks
New Orleans (-7.5) at Atlanta
CHFF Pick: New Orleans 31, Atlanta 21
Final Score: New Orleans 17, Atlanta 13
CHFF Result: straight up win (1-0); ATS loss (0-1)
Carolina (-4) at Miami
CHFF Pick: Carolina 23, Miami 14
Final Score: Carolina 20, Miami 16
CHFF Result: straight up win (2-0); push (0-1-1)
Chicago at St. Louis (-1)
CHFF Pick: Chicago 21, St. Louis 19
Final Score: St. Louis 42, Chicago 21
CHFF Result: straight up loss (2-1); ATS loss (0-2-1)
Jacksonville at Houston (-10)
CHFF Pick: Houston 24, Jacksonville 16
Final Score: Jacksonville 13, Houston 6
CHFF Result: straight up loss (2-2); ATS win (1-2-1)
Minnesota at Green Bay (-5)
CHFF Pick: Green Bay 26, Minnesota 24
Final Score: Green Bay 26, Minnesota 26
CHFF Result: straight up tie (2-2-1); ATS win (2-2-1)
N.Y. Jets at Baltimore (-3.5)
CHFF Pick: Baltimore 21, N.Y. Jets 14
Final Score: Baltimore 19, N.Y. Jets 3
CHFF Result: straight up win (3-2-1); ATS win (3-2-1)
Pittsburgh at Cleveland (-2)
CHFF Pick: Pittsburgh 23, Cleveland 20
Final Score: Pittsburgh 27, Cleveland 11
CHFF Result: straight up win (4-2-1); ATS win (4-2-1)
San Diego at Kansas City (-4.5)
CHFF Pick: Kansas City 24, San Diego 17
Final Score: San Diego 41, Kansas City 28
CHFF Result: straight up loss (4-3-1); ATS loss (4-3-1)
Tampa Bay at Detroit (-9)
CHFF Pick: Detroit 27, Tampa Bay 20
Final Score: Tampa Bay 24, Detroit 21
CHFF Result: straight up loss (4-4-1); ATS win (5-3-1)
Indianapolis at Arizona (-2.5)
CHFF Pick: Arizona 24, Indianapolis 21
Final Score: Arizona 40, Indianapolis 11
CHFF Result: straight up win (5-4-1); ATS win (6-3-1)
Tennessee at Oakland (pick ‘em)
CHFF Pick: Oakland 24, Tennessee 20
Final Score: Tennessee 23, Oakland 19
CHFF Result: straight up loss (5-5-1); ATS loss (6-4-1)
Dallas at N.Y. Giants (-2.5)
CHFF Pick: N.Y. Giants 26, Dallas 21
Final Score: Dallas 24, N.Y. Giants 21
CHFF Result: straight up loss (5-6-1); ATS loss (6-5-1)
Denver (-2.5) at New England
CHFF Pick: Denver 28, New England 27
Final Score: New England 34, Indianapolis 31
CHFF Result: straight up loss (5-7-1); ATS win (7-5-1)
San Francisco (-5) at Washington
CHFF Pick: San Francisco 27, Washington 20
Final Score: New England 34, Indianapolis 31
CHFF Result: straight up win (6-7-1); ATS win (8-5-1)
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