Week 12 in Review: A Holiday Feast of Winning Picks

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Nov 26, 2013



Cold, Hard Football Facts Insider’s four portfolios of picks continue to gain momentum here in the soft, well-fed underbelly of the season – a period we know, and we would love if we had emotions, as the Pigskin High Holidays.

It’s been a festive couple weeks for our picks, led by the CHFF Intelligence Index, which is dabbling with 70 percent against the spread, and closely followed by the King of Props, who has recovered in grand fashion after a brief slump from Weeks 6 to 8. His Royal Majesty also has a shot at 70 percent with his player props.

We knew the King of Props was money at the start of the year.

The Intelligence Index was the wildcard, but one in which we put great faith based upon our off-season research.

Here's why:

The Quality Stats that excite us most are those that meet a couple criteria: they have a high Correlation to Victory, and they go against the grain of conventional wisdom and/or otherwise examine success factors the pigskin pundits and public overlook.

The Intelligence Index is a winner on all counts. It has a high Correlation to Victory, as we highlight each week. And it’s an examination of so-called “situational football” – something fans and analysts talk about, but have no real way to quantify statistically.

The Intelligence Index gives us a way to quantify situational football, and does it in a very easy-to-understand format.

It allows us to easily distinguish the smart teams that excel in situational football from the dumb teams that habitually struggle in situational football.

More importantly for football fans, it allows you a way to consistently beat the market with money-making “Mental Mismatches.” Smart teams not only consistently beat dumb teams straight up, they consistently blow them out, and cover against the spread at an extraordinarily high clip.

The reason is simple: the public may talk about situational football. But they largely ignore a team's mental capabilities and look only at a team's physical potential when they make their bets. The disparity there, between a team's mental capabilities and physical capabilities, gives us a window to explot that few others even consider.

Here’s a look at our Week 12 picks at CHFF Insider:

The King of Props went a perfect 4-0 – a late catch by Washington’s Santana Moss Monday night, right after having a reception called back because of penalty, launched the King of Props’ Monday play into the win column and concluded his third perfect week in 12 opportunities this year.

The King of Props is now a scorching 32-17 (.653) in 2013.

The Intelligence Index went 3-0 both straight up and ATS – and not one of our Week 12 Mental Mismatches was ever in doubt: the Ravens (-3.5) easily beat the Jets, 19-3; the Steelers (+2.5) handled the Browns, 27-11; and the 49ers (-5.5) rolled past the Redskins, 27-6.

The Intelligence Index is now a brilliant 23-4 (.852) straight up and 17-8-2 (.680) ATS. It has not suffered a loss of any kind over the past two weeks.

Our Real and Spectacular Picks went 8-5-1 ATS – our second straight winning week ATS after what is still a solidly underperforming season. The stretch run is our money-making time of year, with Real and Spectacular late-season results for CHFF Insiders dating back to 2009.

The CHFF Trifecta went 1-2 playing three over-unders this week – It was our only losing portfolio of picks in Week 12, and comes after a strong 10-5 surge by the Trifecta.

Overall, the King of Props and Intelligence Index look well positioned to produce winning slates for 2013 with five weeks to play, barring a complete collapse.

The CHFF Trifecta is rapidly making up for a poor start and right now is sitting on the cusp of turning in a money-making season with plenty of time to go.

Our Real and Spectacular Picks need a truly spectacular five-week run to close out the season with a winning record against the spread for a fifth straight year. It’s a very long shot at this point.

But this is exactly the time of year that we’ve printed money makers for CHFF Insiders, as we documented before the start of the season.

We’ve gone .500 or better ATS in 20 of 24 weeks over the past four seasons from Week 12 through Week 17.

We’ve gone an incredible 58-27 (.671) ATS from Week 16 through the Super Bowl over the past two seasons, picking the toughest games of the year.

We've gone 15-7 (.682) ATS over the past two postseasons. Best teams. Best players. Toughest games. We analyze every single one of them in great detail and win at a 2-to-1 win clip.

 

Week 12 and Year-to-Date Results

King of Props Week 1 – 4-0

King of Props Week 2 – 2-2

King of Props Week 3 – 3-1

King of Props Week 4 – 2-2

King of Props Week 5 – 4-0

King of Props Week 6 – 1-3

King of Props Week 7 – 2-2

King of Props Week 8 – 1-3

King of Props Week 9 – 3-1

King of Props Week 10 – 3-1

King of Props Week 11 – 2-2

King of Props Week 12 – 4-0

King of Props pre-season picks – 1-0

Year to Date – 32-17 (.653)

 

Real and Spectacular picks Week 1 – 11-5 straight up; 5-10-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular picks Week 2 – 13-3 straight up; 6-9-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular picks Week 3 – 9-7 straight up; 7-8-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular picks Week 4 – 8-7 straight up; 5-10 ATS

Real and Spectacular picks Week 5 – 8-6 straight up; 3-11 ATS

Real and Spectacular picks Week 6 – 9-6 straight up; 7-8 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 7 – 9-5 straight up; 5-9 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 8 – 10-3 straight up; 6-7 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 9 – 8-5 straight up; 6-7 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 10 – 4-10 straight up; 3-10-1 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 11 – 12-3 straight up; 7-5-3 ATS

Real and Spectacular Picks Week 12 – 6-7-1 straight up; 8-5-1 ATS

Year to Date: 107-67-1 (.615) straight up; 68-99-8 (.407) ATS

 

Intelligence Index Week 2 – 1-0 straight up; 1-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 3 – 3-0 straight up; 3-0 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 4 – 3-0 straight up; 3-0 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 5 – 1-0 straight up; 1-0 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 6 – 2-1 straight up; 1-2 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 7 – 1-1 straight up; 0-2 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 8 – 3-0 straight up; 2-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 9 – 2-1 straight up; 1-2 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 10 – 2-1 straight up; 1-1-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 11 – 2-0 straight up; 1-0-1 ATS

Intelligence Index Week 12 – 3-0 straight up; 3-0 ATS

Year to Date: 23-4 (.852) straight up; 17-8-2 (.680) ATS

 

CHFF Trifecta Week 1 – 0-3

CHFF Trifecta Week 2 – 2-0-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 3 – 0-2-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 4 – 1-2

CHFF Trifecta Week 5 – 1-2

CHFF Trifecta Week 6 – 0-3

CHFF Trifecta Week 7 – 2-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 8 – 2-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 9 – 1-2

CHFF Trifecta Week 10 – 2-1

CHFF Trifecta Week 11 – 3-0

CHFF Trifecta Week 12 – 1-2

Year to Date – 15-19-2 (.441)

 

 

Week 12 Real and Spectacular Picks

New Orleans (-7.5) at Atlanta

CHFF Pick: New Orleans 31, Atlanta 21

Final Score: New Orleans 17, Atlanta 13

CHFF Result: straight up win (1-0); ATS loss (0-1)

 

Carolina (-4) at Miami

CHFF Pick: Carolina 23, Miami 14

Final Score: Carolina 20, Miami 16

CHFF Result: straight up win (2-0); push (0-1-1)

 

Chicago at St. Louis (-1)

CHFF Pick: Chicago 21, St. Louis 19

Final Score: St. Louis 42, Chicago 21

CHFF Result: straight up loss (2-1); ATS loss (0-2-1)

 

Jacksonville at Houston (-10)

CHFF Pick: Houston 24, Jacksonville 16

Final Score: Jacksonville 13, Houston 6

CHFF Result: straight up loss (2-2); ATS win (1-2-1)

 

Minnesota at Green Bay (-5)

CHFF Pick: Green Bay 26, Minnesota 24

Final Score: Green Bay 26, Minnesota 26

CHFF Result: straight up tie (2-2-1); ATS win (2-2-1)

 

N.Y. Jets at Baltimore (-3.5)

CHFF Pick: Baltimore 21, N.Y. Jets 14

Final Score: Baltimore 19, N.Y. Jets 3

CHFF Result: straight up win (3-2-1); ATS win (3-2-1)

 

Pittsburgh at Cleveland (-2)

CHFF Pick: Pittsburgh 23, Cleveland 20

Final Score: Pittsburgh 27, Cleveland 11

CHFF Result: straight up win (4-2-1); ATS win (4-2-1)

 

San Diego at Kansas City (-4.5)

CHFF Pick: Kansas City 24, San Diego 17

Final Score: San Diego 41, Kansas City 28

CHFF Result: straight up loss (4-3-1); ATS loss (4-3-1)

 

Tampa Bay at Detroit (-9)

CHFF Pick: Detroit 27, Tampa Bay 20

Final Score: Tampa Bay 24, Detroit 21

CHFF Result: straight up loss (4-4-1); ATS win (5-3-1)

 

Indianapolis at Arizona (-2.5)

CHFF Pick: Arizona 24, Indianapolis 21

Final Score: Arizona 40, Indianapolis 11

CHFF Result: straight up win (5-4-1); ATS win (6-3-1)

 

Tennessee at Oakland (pick ‘em)

CHFF Pick: Oakland 24, Tennessee 20

Final Score: Tennessee 23, Oakland 19

CHFF Result: straight up loss (5-5-1); ATS loss (6-4-1)

 

Dallas at N.Y. Giants (-2.5)

CHFF Pick: N.Y. Giants 26, Dallas 21

Final Score: Dallas 24, N.Y. Giants 21

CHFF Result: straight up loss (5-6-1); ATS loss (6-5-1)

 

Denver (-2.5) at New England

CHFF Pick: Denver 28, New England 27

Final Score: New England 34, Indianapolis 31

CHFF Result: straight up loss (5-7-1); ATS win (7-5-1)

 

San Francisco (-5) at Washington

CHFF Pick: San Francisco 27, Washington 20

Final Score: New England 34, Indianapolis 31

CHFF Result: straight up win (6-7-1); ATS win (8-5-1)


From our partners




Team Pages
AFC East NFC
South
North
West

Connect With Us
Sign up for our newsletter to recieve all the latest news and updates...




The Football Nation Network

© Copyright 2014 Football Nation LLC. Privacy Policy & Terms of Use   Logout
Some images property of Getty Images or Icon/SMI