Week 1 Report: King of Props Perfect, CHFF Picks Not So Much

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Sep 10, 2013



The Cold, Hard Football Facts produced a mixed bag of results here in Week 1. Our Real and Spectacular picks struggled in Week 1 and the CHFF Trifecta faltered out of the gate.

The King of Props, meanwhile, produced a perfect 4-0 performance across four different games.

The Cold, Hard Football Facts real and spectacular picks were anything but perfect in Week 1. Low-lighted by a rare 0-4 performance against the spread in primetime, we posted a 5-10-1 record ATS.

It was just our third week of double-digit losses in three seasons, and our worst Week 1 performance in four years of Real and Spectacular Picks.

The primetime games were the big difference in our picks: Peyton Manning’s seven touchdown passes, the Giants’ six turnovers, Robert Griffin III’s big-time struggles for the Redskins and the lingering defensive struggles for the Texans (four TD passes allowed) all conspired to hand us a rough slate.

Keep in mind, as always, that our stats grow deadly effective as we get more data under our belts. Our second-half performance, and especially our performance in the post-season, is always much better than is our early-season performance. Couple cases in point. Since 2009, picking every game, every week, our Real and Spectacular Picks have gone:

  • 269-240 (.528) ATS in the first half of the season (Weeks 1-9)
  • 279-220 (.559) ATS in the second half of the season (Weeks 10-17)
  • 79-49 (.617) ATS in Weeks 16 and 17
  • 107-65 (.622) ATS Weeks 16 through the Super Bowl
  • 28-16 (.636) ATS in the past four postseasons

Over the past four seasons, we’re .500 or better against the spread in 26 of 32 (81.3%) weeks from Week 10 through 17.

And we will continue to arm you with key statistical information every week to help you pick NFL games straight up and against the spread, or target prop plays that offer the potential of a high degree of success, as they did in Week 1. 

Here’s a quick look at the King of Props, followed by all 16 Week 1 picks.

KING of PROPS WEEK 1

Prop 1 – Denver’s Wesley Woodyard to over 7 tackles in our Thursday night play. Woodyard racked up four tackles in the first quarter alone and ended the evening with 10 takedowns.

KOP result: 1-0

Prop 2 – Saints receiver Marques Colston over 4.5 catches. Colston caught five passes.

KOP result: 2-0

Prop 3 – Packers receiver Jordy Nelson over 4.0 catches. Nelson topped four catches in the first half alone and ended the game with a Packers-best 7 catches for 130 yards.

KOP result: 3-0

Prop 4 – Chargers RB Ryan Mathews under 3.0 catches. Mathews caught two passes.

KOP result: 4-0

 

REAL and SPECTACULAR PICKS WEEK 1

Baltimore at Denver (-8)

Our pick: Denver 24, Baltimore 21

Score: Denver 49, Baltimore 27

CHFF result: straight up win (1-0); ATS loss (0-1)

 

Atlanta at New Orleans (-3)

Our pick: Atlanta 28, New Orleans 27

Score: New Orleans 23, Atlanta 17

CHFF result: straight up loss (1-1); ATS loss (0-2)

 

Cincinnati at Chicago (-3)

Our pick: Chicago 21, Cincinnati 17

Score: Chicago 24, Cincinnati 21

CHFF result: straight up win (2-1) ATS push (0-2-1)

 

Kansas City (-3.5) at Jacksonville

Our pick: Kansas City 20, Jacksonville 14

Score: Kansas City 28, Jacksonville 2

CHFF result: straight up win (3-1); ATS win (1-2-1)

 

Miami at Cleveland (pick ‘em)

Our pick: Miami 20, Cleveland 17

Score: Miami 23, Cleveland 10

CHFF result: straight up win (4-1); ATS win (2-2-1)

 

Minnesota at Detroit (-4.5)

Our pick: Detroit 23, Minnesota 21

Score: Detroit 34, Minnesota 24

CHFF result: straight up win (5-1); ATS loss (2-3-1)

 

New England (-10) at Buffalo

Our pick: New England 31, Buffalo 17

Score: New England 23, Buffalo 21

CHFF result: straight up win (6-1); ATS loss (2-4-1)

 

Oakland at Indianapolis (-9.5)

Our pick: Indianapolis 24, Oakland 17

Score: Indianapolis 21, Oakland 17

CHFF result: straight up win (7-1); ATS win (3-4-1)

 

Seattle (-3) at Carolina

Our pick: Seattle 28, Carolina 21

Score:  Seattle 12, Carolina 7

CHFF result: straight up win (8-1); ATS win (4-4-1)

 

Tampa Bay (-3) at New York Jets

Our pick: Tampa Bay 23, N.Y. Jets 17

Score: N.Y. Jets 18, Tampa Bay 17

CHFF result: straight up loss (8-2); ATS loss (4-5-1)

 

Tennessee at Pittsburgh (-7)

Our pick: Pittsburgh 24, Tennessee 14

Score: Tennessee 19, Pittsburgh 9

CHFF result: straight up loss (8-3); ATS loss (4-6-1)

 

Arizona at St. Louis (-5)

Our pick: St. Louis 17, Arizona 16

Score: St. Louis 27, Arizona 24

CHFF result: straight up win (9-3); ATS win (5-6-1)

 

Green Bay at San Francisco (-4.5)

Our pick: San Francisco 27, Green Bay 24

Score: San Francisco 34, Green Bay 28

CHFF result: straight up win (10-3) ATS loss (5-7-1)

 

New York Giants at Dallas (-3.5)

Our pick: N.Y. Giants 24, Dallas 23

Score: Dallas 36, N.Y. Giants 31

CHFF result: straight up loss (10-4); ATS loss (5-8-1)

 

Philadelphia at Washington (-3.5)

Our pick: Washington 28, Philadelphia 23

Score: Philadelphia 33, Washington 27

CHFF result: straight up loss (10-5); ATS loss (5-9-1)

 

Houston (-4) at San Diego

Our pick: Houston 26, San Diego 21

Score: Houston 31, San Diego 28

CHFF result: straight up win (11-5); ATS loss (5-10-1)

 


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