Top ground game is overrated

The "pundits" would be apoplectic. "You need to run the ball to win. It's an adage as old as football itself." Sure it is. And come playoff time, every pigskin "pundit" on the planet will pound the table and repeat this mantra like a drunken farmhand hawking hogs at the Hazzard County auction.

The desire to run the football dominates gridiron theory. It's the reason the Patriots cut utility man Antowain Smith after two Super Bowl years and spent a second-round draft pick on question-mark character Corey Dillon. It's the reason NFL teams toss away first-round draft picks each and every year for the latest 21-year-old to run for 1,500 yards in the Atlantic Coast Conference. It even inspires impetuous behavior: the buffoons who run Buffalo wasted a No. 1 draft pick on wounded college warhorse Willis McGahee, even with 1,000-yard NFL stallion Travis Henry resting in the stable.

It's easy to see the appeal of mud-stained smashmouth football. It's one of the reasons we cherish the game, and admire what it says about the national character. Special status is accorded those men most adept at advancing the ball by stealth of foot and force in the face of 11 angry men. And what team doesn't thirst to be known as the best at running the football? There is, after all, a brawny, adrenaline-charged nobility knowing that you can shove the ball down the throat of your opponents better than any other team in the brutal and bloody alpha-male world of the NFL.

The Cold, Hard Football Facts, however, aren't swayed by grainy pigskin romanticism and they certainly don't play the tired old cliché game.

We looked at every top running back, top rushing attack, and Super Bowl champion since the AFL-NFL merger* in 1970. The Cold, Hard Football Facts show that Super Bowl champions often have solid running games, but that there is little correlation between boasting the league's best back or top running attack and hoisting hardware at the end of the season. More importantly, in the 21st century NFL, quality rushing attacks have become virtually meaningless if you hope to claim the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the season.

Consider these Cold, Hard Football Facts:

• Only twice has the team with the league's top running attack won the Super Bowl (1972 Dolphins, 1985 Bears)

• Pundits often pine for the rough-and-tumble NFL of the 1970s, when they say the ground game and defense ruled. But the Cold, Hard Football Facts show that the running game's glory days were actually in the 1990s. Super Bowl champions in the 1990s averaged the 5th best rushing attack in football. Only three times in the decade did the league's most prolific runner or best running team fail to make the playoffs.

• Much of the success of the ground attack in the 1990s can be attributed to a single player: Emmitt Smith of Dallas who, not coincidentally, is the league's all-time leading ball carrier. Smith led the league in rushing and won the Super Bowl the same season an unprecedented three times (1992, 1993 and 1995).

• Only one other player has ever led the league in rushing and won a Super Bowl in the same season: Terrell Davis (Denver, 1998).

• Super Bowl champions in the 1970s averaged the 6th best ground attack. Meanwhile, the league's best backs in the 1970s failed to make the playoffs seven out of 10 years. Running teams fared most poorly in the pass-happy 1980s. The average Super Bowl champion boasted just the 8th best ground game in football.

• Fifteen times in 34 seasons since the merger, the league's leading rusher has failed to make the playoffs.

• The team with the league's top running attack has failed to make the playoffs 10 times.

• The team with the league's top running attack has made seven Super Bowl appearances. They lost five times (1970 Cowboys, 1971 Dolphins, 1988 Bengals, 1991 Bills and 1992 Bills).

• The 2002 Buccaneers ran for just 97.3 yards per game. Only the 1970 Colts had a more impotent ground attack (95.4 yards per game).

• The 2003 Patriots averaged just 3.4 yards per rushing attempt. Only the 1970 Colts fared worse (3.3 yards per carry).

• The average Super Bowl winner in the 21st century has had just the 18th best ground game.

The Cold, Hard Football Facts speak loud and clear: If you're looking to predict this year's NFL champion, the league's top ground gainers are not you're best barometer.

Here's a year-by-year breakdown of each year's top running team, top running back, and Super Bowl champion since the AFL-NFL merger.

1970 Top rushing team: Dallas (10-4); lost in Super Bowl. Top rusher: Larry Brown (1,125 yards), Washington (6-8), missed playoffs. Super Bowl champ: Baltimore Colts, ranked 23rd rushing the football (of 26 teams).

1971 Top rushing team: Miami (10-3-1); lost in Super Bowl. Top rusher: Floyd Little (1,133), Denver (6-8), missed playoffs. Super Bowl champ: Dallas, 3rd.

1972 Top rushing team: Miami (14-0); won Super Bowl. Top rusher: O.J. Simpson (1,251), Buffalo (4-9-1), missed playoffs. Super Bowl champ: Miami.

1973 Top rushing team: Buffalo (9-5); missed playoffs. Top rusher: O.J. Simpson (2,003), Buffalo, missed playoffs. Super Bowl champ: Miami, 3rd.

1974 Top rushing team: Dallas (8-6); missed playoffs. Top rusher: Otis Armstrong (1,407), Denver (7-6-1), missed playoffs. Super Bowl champ: Pittsburgh, 2nd.

1975 Top rushing team: Buffalo (8-6); missed playoffs. Top rusher: O.J. Simpson (1,817), Buffalo, missed playoffs. Super Bowl champ: Pittsburgh, 2nd.

1976 Top rushing team: Pittsburgh (10-4); lost in AFC title game. Top rusher: O.J. Simpson (1,503); Buffalo (2-12), missed playoffs. Super Bowl champ: Oakland, 10th (of 28 teams).

1977 Top rushing team: Chicago (9-5); NFC wildcard, lost in first round. Top rusher: Walter Payton (1,852); Chicago. Super Bowl champ: Dallas, 4th.

1978 Top rushing team: New England (11-5); lost in divisional round. Top rusher: Earl Campbell (1,450); Houston (10-6), lost in AFC title game. Super Bowl champ: Pittsburgh, 14th.

1979 Top rushing team: N.Y. Jets (8-8); missed playoffs. Top rusher: Earl Campbell (1,697); Houston (11-5), lost in AFC title game. Super Bowl champ: Pittsburgh, 2nd.

1980 Top rushing team: L.A. Rams (11-5); lost in wildcard round. Top rusher: Earl Campbell (1,934); Houston (11-5), lost in wildcard round. Super Bowl champ: Oakland, 11th

1981 Top rushing team: Detroit (8-8); missed playoffs. Top rusher: George Rogers (1,674), New Orleans (4-12), missed playoffs. Super Bowl champ: San Francisco, 19th.

1982 Top rushing team: Buffalo (4-5); missed playoffs. Top rusher: Freeman McNeil (786), NY Jets (6-3), lost in AFC title game. Super Bowl champ: Washington, 10th.

1983 Top rushing team: Buffalo (8-8); missed playoffs. Top rusher: Eric Dickerson (1,808), L.A. Rams (9-7), lost in NFC title game. Super Bowl champ: L.A. Raiders, 10th.

1984 Top rushing team: Chicago (10-6); lost in NFC title game. Top rusher: Eric Dickerson (2,105), L.A. Rams (10-6), lost in wildcard round. Super Bowl champ: San Francisco, 3rd.

1985 Top rushing team: Chicago (15-1); won Super Bowl. Top rusher: Marcus Allen (1,759), L.A. Raiders (12-4), lost in divisional round. Super Bowl champ: Chicago.

1986 Top rushing team: Washington (12-4); lost in NFC title game. Top rusher: Eric Dickerson (1,821), L.A. Rams (10-6), lost in wildcard round. Super Bowl champ: N.Y. Giants, 6th.

1987 Top rushing team: San Francisco (13-2); lost in divisional round. Top rusher: Charles White (1,374), L.A. Rams (6-9), missed playoffs. Super Bowl champ: Washington, 7th.

1988 Top rushing team: Cincinnati (12-4); lost in Super Bowl. Top rusher: Eric Dickerson (1,659), Indy (9-7), missed playoffs. Super Bowl champ: San Francisco, 2nd.

1989 Top rushing team: Cincinnati (8-8); missed playoffs. Top rusher: Christian Okoye (1,480), Kansas City (8-7-1), missed playoffs. Super Bowl champ: San Francisco, 10th.

1990 Top rushing team: Philly (10-6); lost in wildcard round. Top rusher: Barry Sanders (1,304), Detroit (6-10), missed playoffs. Super Bowl champ: Giants, 8th.

1991 Top rushing team: Buffalo (13-3); lost in Super Bowl. Top rusher: Emmitt Smith (1,563), Dallas (11-5), lost in divisional round. Super Bowl champ: Washington, ranked 7th.

1992 Top rushing team: Buffalo (11-5); lost in Super Bowl. Top rusher: Emmitt Smith (1,713), Dallas (13-3), won Super Bowl. Super Bowl champ: Dallas, ranked 5th.

1993 Top rushing team: NY Giants (11-5); lost in divisional round. Top rusher: Emmitt Smith (1,480), Dallas (12-4), won Super Bowl. Super Bowl champ: Dallas, 2nd.

1994 Top rushing team: Pittsburgh (12-4); lost in AFC title game. Top rusher: Barry Sanders (1,883), Detroit (9-7), lost in wildcard round. Super Bowl champ: San Francisco, ranked 6th.

1995 Top rushing team: Kansas City (13-3); lost in divisional round. Top rusher: Emmitt Smith (1,773), Dallas (12-4), won Super Bowl. Super Bowl champ: Dallas, ranked 2nd (of 30 teams).

1996 Top rushing team: Denver (13-3); lost in divisional round. Top rusher: Barry Sanders (1,553), Detroit (5-11), missed playoffs. Super Bowl champ: Green Bay, 11th.

1997 Top rushing team: Pittsburgh (11-5); lost in AFC title game. Top rusher: Barry Sanders (2,053), Detroit (9-7), lost in wildcard round. Super Bowl champ: Denver, ranked 4th.

1998 Top rushing team: San Francisco (12-4); lost in divisional round. Top rusher: Terrell Davis (2,008), Denver (14-2), won Super Bowl. Super Bowl champ: Denver, 2nd.

1999 Top rushing team: San Francisco (4-12); missed playoffs. Top rusher: Edgerrin James (1,553), Indy (13-3), lost in divisional round. Super Bowl champ: St. Louis, 5th.

2000 Top rushing team: Oakland (12-4); lost in AFC title game. Top rusher: Edgerrin James (1,709), Indy (10-6), lost in wildcard round. Super Bowl champ: Baltimore Ravens, ranked 5th.

2001 Top rushing team: Pittsburgh (13-3); lost in AFC title game. Top rusher: Priest Holmes (1,555), Kansas City (6-10), missed playoffs. Super Bowl champ: New England, 13th.

2002 Top rushing team: Minnesota (6-10); missed playoffs. Top rusher: Ricky Williams (1,853), Miami (9-7), missed playoffs. Super Bowl champ: Tampa Bay, 27th (of 32 teams).

2003 Top rushing team: Baltimore (10-6); lost in wildcard round. Top rusher: Jamal Lewis (2,066), Baltimore (10-6), lost in wildcard round. Super Bowl champ: New England, 27th.

* The AFL and NFL played together in a single league for the first time in 1970. The season concluded with Super Bowl V. The Cold, Hard Football Facts often begin with the 1970 season when researching trends in the Super Bowl era because of the inconsistencies inherent in comparing statistics from two separate leagues.