Toot Our Horn: Proof CHFF Dominates NFL Game Analysis

Cold, Hard Football Facts for Jul 08, 2013



The Cold, Hard Football Facts dominate the world of NFL game analysis, especially in crunch time, with an against-the-spread performance we believe is unrivaled by any other so-called “expert,” especially the scam artists with the 800 numbers.

Over the last two seasons, in the toughest crunch-time games in football, we’ve gone an incredible 57-28 (.671) against the spread, picking every game, every week. We own late-season football.

If someone out there with the gonads to pick every game, every week is better, we want to know about it.

The statistical proof of our dominance is below, all of it validation of our groundbreaking Quality Stats, the bedrock foundation of the Cold, Hard Football Facts. We currently track 14 Quality Stats for each and every NFL team. We are introducing several new indicators for 2013.

The statistical analysis of football has come a long way in recent years, thanks to a whole list of reasons but two in particular:

  • The advent of the web, which has democratized sports coverage and empowered new voices
  • Fans like you who covet something more substantial than the tired old bromides that have defined traditional football philosophy for decades.

The boring old “establish the run” and “defense wins championships” aphorisms that you probably grew up with since your days playing Pop Warner football no longer monopolize the world of football analysis.

Nor should they.

The reality is that much of that deeply rooted conventional wisdom is misleading at best and statistically, empirically incorrect at worst. Here in the new reality, there are stats and methods to break down each player and each team in fascinating new ways we never dreamed possible just a decade ago.

But not all these new stats and all that new analysis are created equal. Some new sites, analysts and stats offer nothing but white noise: they sound impressive, but at the end of the day this new information is no better than the tired old clichés.

The Cold, Hard Football Facts offer something more concrete. Something that we can and do statistically validate each and every week of the season.

We call them Quality Stats. These are stats that have a direct correlation to winning football games. In fact, we track the Correlation to Victory for our indicators and many other stats each week of the season. 

Our Quality Stats are rock solid. They work. They help you understand football better. They help you separate winners from losers. And we have the empirical proof of these capabilities below.

Our secret is simple: we look only at those indicators that win and lose football games. We ignore those indicators that are largely detached from wins and losses.

Take passing yards, for example. Fans and analysts love to gawk at those big, gaudy 400-yard passing performances. But at the end of the day, all those yards don’t help you win games.

In fact, teams that passed for more yards went just 127-125 (.502) in 2012, consistent with historic results.

Teams better in CHFF’s proprietary Real Quarterback Rating, meanwhile, went an incredible 218-37 (.856) in 2012, also consistent with historic results.

So which indicator would YOU use to analyze two teams? The answer is obvious: you ignore the indicator that's just as likely to identify losers as winners; you focus instead on the indicator that identifies winners in nearly 90 percent of all NFL games.

At the end of the day, football, like any other sport, is all about winners and losers. Can you consistently separate one from the other? If you can't, your analysis is useless.

We don’t just talk about our indicators. We publicly put our faith in our Quality Stats on the line each and every game with our aptly named Real and Spectacular Picks at CHFF Insider.

We pick every game every week of every NFL season after sizing up every team in every single one of our indicators.  We don’t sit out the tough games like that clown with the 800 number.

The results have been tremendous and prove the validity of our indicators (you can see our record ATS every week since 2009 right here). Some highlights:

  • We hit .543 against the spread over the long haul, picking every game every week for four straight seasons.
  • We average 21.5 games above .500 ATS each year
  • We’ve gone .500 or better ATS in an incredible 49 of 68 weeks (.721) since the start of the 2009 season.

Here’s the greatest proof of the power of our Quality Stats: our picks get better later in the year, as the statistically validity of each indicator that season gains more weight.

Basically, a stat has more validity in Week 16 than it does in Week 2. So games SHOULD be easier to analyze ... if you're looking at the right indicators. 

And our Quality Stats are certainly the right indicators.

From Weeks 10 through 17, since we began publishing our picks back in 2009, we’ve gone 279-220 (.559) ATS, again picking every game, every week over four long seasons. We’ve been deadly late in the season: 79-49 (.622) ATS in Weeks 16 and 17 (2009-2012).

The last two years, meanwhile, have been defined by an almost unbelievable late-season performance: 42-21 (.667) ATS in Weeks 16 and 17, followed by an incredible 15-7 ATS performance in the postseason (8-3 ATS in 2012 postseason).

In other words, from Week 16 through the Super Bowl, over the last two years, picking every game, every week, pitting the toughest teams in football, in the games with the most on the line, we’ve gone a truly unbelievable 57-28 (.671) ATS.

These are the games that are supposed to pit the best teams in football and, therefore, are supposed to be the toughest to analyze.

But not for us.

Instead, we own those late-season games like nobody in football. And that performance is validation of the Cold, Hard Football Facts and our all-powerful Quality Stats.


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